Exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer market analysis
Issue number 213 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses transactions carried out by big-5 league clubs during January’s transfer window. For the first time in history, the total estimated spending was over one billion €. Transfer expenditure increased by 36% compared to the previous record figure measured in 2017. English Premier League investments accounted for 51% of transfer indemnities paid by big-5 league clubs as a whole.
Since 2010, Premier League teams always had negative balance sheets for operations carried out during winter windows. The net balance in 2018 was -€113 M despite the expensive transfers of Philippe Coutinho and Diego Costa from England to Spain. These signings mainly explain the record deficit observed for Spanish Liga teams: -€188 M. The estimated balance sheets for the three other major European championships were positive: +€48 M for the Italian Serie A, +€33 M for the German Bundesliga and +€14 M for the French Ligue 1.
Once again, a high correlation (75%) was measured between values estimated through the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm and fees paid by clubs. However, the majority of transfers were concluded for higher amounts than those estimated. This confirms the ongoing inflation trend in football players’ transfer market. The updated transfer values for all big-5 league squad members are available here.
Big-5 league club transfer expenditure
Winter transfer windows, € million
CIES Football Observatory
Top transfer expenditure by club
Last two transfer windows (summer and winter), € million
CIES Football Observatory
Correlation between fees estimated and reported
January 2018, € million
CIES Football Observatory
Net transfer spend, big-5 leagues
Winter transfer windows since 2010, € million
CIES Football Observatory
Main net monetary flows, by league
January 2018, € million
CIES Football Observatory
Fees paid and current estimated value, top transfers
January 2018, € million
CIES Football Observatory
Editors : Raffaele Poli, Roger Besson and Loïc Ravenel
Contact : football.observatory@cies.ch