Ranking players according to their match experience: the CIES Football Observatory method

1. Introduction

This Monthly Report presents the method developed by the CIES Football Observatory to rank players globally by combining their playing time with the sporting level of the teams for which they played or the competitions they participated in. The so-called “experience capital” method is particularly useful to scout young players. Indeed, with similar talent, regularly fielded players from a young age are better prepared for a successful career.

The method is exemplified by considering the minutes played by footballers in 401 club and national team competitions worldwide from the 1st January to the 1st December 2021, which allows us to highlight the most promising fresh talents. Among the latter, one finds already well-established players such as Pedri González from Barcelona, but also less well-known footballers who have all the requisites needed to pursue a successful top-flight career.

2. Methodology

The first step in the experience capital method consists of calculating a coefficient of sporting force for each club worldwide, with which then weighting minutes played by footballers. To do this, we first calculate the leagues’ sporting level by considering the results obtained by their members in the international club competitions (Champions League, Europa League, Copa Libertadores, etc.) over the past five years.

A weighting is then applied to the league according to the level of competition at national scale (100% for the top division, 50% for the second, 25% for the third, etc.). A point scored in a top division league thus has a weighting equivalent to two points obtained in a second division one. Despite some differences between countries, this ratio corresponds to that globally observed in domestic cups for fixtures opposing teams of different levels.

The leagues of different confederations are then ranked in a single group by taking into account the average sporting force coefficient of the 50 best European clubs where the players of teams from a confederation have migrated during the two years prior to the establishment of the ranking. This coefficient is applied as a maximum value for the top-ranked league in each confederation.

As a matter of example, a coefficient of 0.75 is attributed to the best league of the CONMEBOL, the Brazilian Serie A, corresponding to the average sporting force coefficient of the 50 best European clubs where footballers from CONMEBOL leagues departed since December 2019. The coefficients for the other leagues of the same confederation are then fixed based on this maximum value according to the infra-confederation calculation method detailed above.

A sporting coefficient specific to each club is then calculated by weighting the sporting force coefficient of the leagues of belonging by domestic league results obtained by teams over the past 365 days. Thus, for example, on the 1st December 2021, the values for Premier League teams ranged from a maximum of 2.35 for Manchester City to a minimum of 0.89 for Newcastle United.

To measure players’ experience capital, each domestic league minute played is weighted according to the sporting coefficient of footballers’ employer clubs at the time the matches took place. For the minutes outside of national leagues, a fixed weighting factor was established according to the prestige and stage of the competition, with a maximum for the World Cup final for national teams and the UEFA Champions League final for international club competitions.

By way of illustration, Thibaut Courtois played 5,580 minutes between the 1st January and the 1st December 2021, for an experience capital of 116.9, of which 71.9% comes from minutes played with Real Madrid in the Spanish Liga, 11.6% from playing time in the UEFA Champions League, 0.7% from minutes in the Spanish Super Cup and the remaining 16.1% from his employment with the Belgian national A-team.

Figure 3: breakdown of Thibaut Courtois’s experience

From 01/01/2021 to 01/12/2021

3. Application

To exemplify the method, we present distinct rankings for outfield players and goalkeepers. The highest values for the latter are generally higher than for the former. Subject to less physical effort, goalkeepers are indeed less likely to be substituted, either during the match or from fixture to fixture.

As far as outfield players are concerned, over the first eleven months of 2021, the highest experience capital value was recorded for the Real Madrid and previously Bayern Munich Austrian centre back David Alaba (108.0). Two other central defenders complete the podium: Rúben Dias (Manchester City and Portugal) and Milan Škriniar (Internazionale and Slovakia). Karim Benzema (6th overall) heads up the rankings for forwards.

At the top of the rankings for goalkeepers, we find the last bastion of Real Madrid and the Belgian national team’s defence Thibaut Courtois, who totals the highest score of any position (116.9). Three other goalkeepers have accumulated an experience capital of over 100: Jan Oblak (Atlético de Madrid and Slovenia), Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich and Germany) as well as Ederson Moraes (Manchester City and Brazil).

The highest experience capital for outfield players born in 2001 was measured for the centre back Jurriën Timber. On the 2nd June 2021, the Ajax player also celebrated his first cap with the Dutch national A-team. The Brazilian Yuri Alberto (SC Internacional) is ranked second, just ahead of another striker, the Belgian Charles De Ketelaere (Club Brugge). For goalkeepers, Ersin Destanoğlu (Beşiktaş) ranks ahead of Anatoliy Trubin (Shakhtar Donetsk).

Three footballers stand out at the top of the rankings for outfield players born in 2002: Ryan Gravenberch (Ajax and The Netherlands), Ilya Zabarnyi (Dynamo Kyiv and Ukraïna), as well as Pedri González (Barcelona and Spain). As for goalkeepers, Maarten Vandevoordt (Genk and U21 Belgium) is ahead of the Bulgarian neo-international Svetoslav Vutsov (Slavia Sofia).

For footballers born in 2003 or after, the top trio is made up of Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund and England), Fabricio Díaz (Liverpool Montevideo) and Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen and Germany). Two players born in 2004 are in the top 10: the Brazilian Kaiky (Santos) and the Paraguayan Julio Enciso (Club Libertad). For goalkeepers, the Polishman Xavier Dziekoński (Jagiellonia Bialystok) outranks the Belarus Andrey Kudravets (BATE Borisov).

4. Conclusion

Based principally on a coefficient of sporting force applicable to all clubs worldwide, the experience capital method allows us to combine within a single metric the quantity and quality of the matches played by footballers over the period of time desired (the past six months, last year, the last two years, etc.).

Exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team, this method constitutes a formidable means to objectively compare the level of experience of players from all over the world. Insofar as players regularly fielded from an early age are best equipped to fully develop their potential, the method is particularly useful when it comes to scouting talent.

By considering the first eleven months of 2021, the highest values for experience capital were recorded for Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid and Belgium) among goalkeepers and David Alaba (Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Austria) for outfield players. Among the footballers born in 2001 or after, the Turk Ersin Destanoğlu (Beşiktaş JK) tops the rankings for goalkeepers, while the Ukrainian Ilya Zabarnyi (Dinamo Kyiv) heads the table for outfield players.