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Issue number 228 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analysed InStat data to unveil teams having scored the most goals within ten seconds from free kicks per domestic league minute played this season. Fresh Swiss champions Young Boys scored a goal from these situations every 277 minutes. This is the best value measured for the 31 European competitions included in the study.
Girona (318 minutes) tops the big-5 league table ahead of Italian champions Juventus (354 minutes) and Schalke 04 (360 minutes). However, the most positive gap between goals scored (8) and conceded (1) from free kicks situations was recorded for Spanish champions Barcelona (+7). Tottenham and Stade Rennais (both +6) rank second. Only Arsenal and Werder Bremen did not concede goals within ten seconds from free kicks.
Heidenheim (322 minutes) heads the table for second division leagues of countries hosting the five major European championships. The German team outranks Oviedo (341 minutes) and Queens Park Rangers (346 minutes). Young Boys is ahead Xanthi and Göztepe for countries between the 6th and 15th position in the UEFA rankings, while Radni?ki Niš tops the table for less performing leagues.
Issue number 227 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks footballers having played at least 1,800 big-5 league minutes over the season (1,440 for Germany) according to their performance level. Lionel Messi heads the table ahead of David Silva and Paulo Dybala. Six Manchester City players are in the top 10 list.
Robert Lewandowski ranks the table for German Bundesliga players (10th overall), while Edinson Cavani heads the French Ligue 1 rankings (21th overall). Per position, the best-ranked footballers are Marc-André ter Stegen for goalkeepers, Nicolás Otamendi for defenders, David Silva for midfielders and Lionel Messi for forwards. The methodology used is available in this research note.
The English Premier League is the most represented competition in the top 100 positions (30 footballers), while Bayern Munich is the most represented club (11 players). In total, 26 teams have at least one squad member in the top 100 list. The youngest footballers are Kylian Mbappé, Houssem Aouar, Malcom Filipe, Tanguy Ndombélé, Davinson Sánchez and Leroy Sané.
The last CIES Football Observatory study analyses the presence of expatriate players in the world. With 1,236 representatives abroad, Brazil is at top the table (+42 compared to 2017). France (821, +45) overtook Argentina (760, -26) as the second biggest exporter. The top 50 list is available in the 35th edition of the Monthly Report.
Brazilians are present in a record number of 78 associations out of the 93 covered by the study. The international path with the most expatriates involved goes from Brazil to Portugal. On the 1st of May 2018, 240 players from Brazil were playing in Portugal at professional adult level. The main destination for the French is England (99 players), while that of the Argentineans is Chile (106).
If we take population into account, the highest rate of expatriates per million of inhabitants was recorded for Iceland (180). This figure is above 100 only for one other association: Montenegro (134). It is also very high for double world champions Uruguay (96) and Croatia (80). In total, expatriates account for 21.2% of squads. This is 1.2% more than on the 1st of May 2017.
The average transfer value of Manchester City’s first team squad members estimated by means of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm reached a record high of €62.9 million. This is the greatest value measured at big-5 league level ahead of Barcelona (€55.3m) and Tottenham (€51.3m). The figures for all big-5 league teams are available in issue number 226 of the Weekly Post.
English Premier League economic power, outstanding performance, long-term contract duration and youthfulness are the key criteria explaining Manchester City’s first position. Seven of their players have an estimated transfer value of more than €100 million: Kevin de Bruyne, Leroy Sané, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Ederson Moraes, Bernardo Silva and Sergio Agüero.
Among the 31 teams whose players have an average estimated transfer value greater than €10 million are nine clubs from the Premier League, eight from the Serie A, six from the Liga and four from both the Bundesliga and the Ligue 1. The lowest ranked Premier League team, West Bromwich Albion, is 55th out of 98. This also reflects the economic dominance of the English top division.
Issue number 225 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post reveals the most likely World Cup winners according to an exclusive power index. This index combines the average percentage of matches played at domestic league level since July 2017 by the 23 most fielded players per team in the qualifying campaign with the average sporting level of employer clubs. Spain tops the list ahead of Brazil.
During current season, the 23 Spanish footballers most fielded in the qualification stage have on average played 81.1% of domestic league matches. This is the highest figure measured among all participating teams. The average sporting level of the clubs employing Spanish players is also the greatest overall: 1.37. According to these criteria, Spain is well placed to repeat its 2010 success. Three other teams have a power index of more than 80: Brazil, France and Germany.
At the opposite end of the table, the lowest power index was recorded for Panama. Two other nations have a score inferior to 25: Iran and Saudi Arabia. For all these countries, reaching the last 16 stage would be a great achievement. For more information about the features of players employed during the qualifications, please refer to the 30th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.
Issue number 224 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the best performing big-5 league players whose contract runs out at the end of the season. Pepe Reina ranks first ahead of two other goalkeepers (Vicente Guaita and Gianluigi Buffon), as well as Arjen Robben. Only footballers having played at least 1,000 domestic league minutes during the current season are included in the rankings.
For outfield players, the CIES Football Observatory performance index takes into account the production and efficiency in six different areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting. For goalkeepers, it includes the minutes per goal conceded, as well as the number and percentage of saves. Results achieved for matches played are also considered as a weighting factor.
In the top 50 list are many relatively young full international players such as Emre Can (Liverpool), Jack Wilshere (Arsenal), Leon Goretzka and Max Meyer (Schalke 04), Sanjin Prci? (Stade Rennais) and Stefan de Vrij (Lazio). As for Goretzka, who already signed for Bayern Munich, all these players will most probably be able to negotiate lucrative contracts in prestigious teams.
Gianluigi Buffon heads the table for the big-5 league players who have been for the longest period in their club employment. The legendary Italian goalkeeper already played for 17 seasons at Juventus. This is sixth months more than the second ranked footballer, Sergio Pellissier (Chievo), and one year more than for Andrés Iniesta (Barcelona) and Roman Weidenfeller (Borussia Dortmund). The top 110 list is available in issue number 223 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
In total, 61 footballers played for at least ten seasons in their current club. Among them are many other legendary players such as Lionel Messi (14 seasons in Barcelona’s first team squad), Giorgio Chiellini (13, Juventus), Sergio Ramos (13, Real Madrid), Michael Carrick (12, Manchester United), Marcelo (11.5, Real Madrid), Franck Ribéry (11, Bayern Munich), Marek Hamšík (11, Napoli), Fernando Torres (10, Atlético Madrid) and Cristiano Ronaldo (9, Real Madrid).
In five clubs, the most loyal squad member only played there for four seasons: Fiorentina (Badelj), Crotone (Martella), Getafe (Guaita), Nice (Mendy, Pléa and Pouplin), as well as Caen (Vercoutre, Féret, da Silva and Bazile). The freshly published 34th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses the relationships between squad stability and success in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations.
The first CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report published in January 2015 studied club stability across Europe. Three years later, the thirty-fourth edition develops this issue by illustrating the value of long-term planning for football clubs. The indicator selected is the percentage of players recruited by their employer club since less than one year.
The study reveals that the best performing teams have much more stable squads than lesser competitive ones. Between 2009 and 2017, big-5 league champions had on average only about one in four new players as squad members. This proportion can be considered as an optimal balance to achieve success.
The Report also highlights the increasing instability of teams across Europe. On the 1st of October 2017, 44.9% of players were recruited during the year. This figure was only 36.7% in 2009. If this trend continues, footballers who have been with their employer club for more than one year will soon represent less than half of squad members.
To limit the growing instability, football’s governing bodies should act against the increasing financial gaps between teams both nationally and internationally. They should also combat corrupt practices at both transfer market and club management levels. It is also necessary to limit the speculation around players’ mobility, notably through a greater protection of training clubs, the enforcement of the third-party ownership ban and the reinforcement of the regulations regarding football intermediaries.
Visit the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas to know more about the demographic features of teams in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations.
Barcelona and Real Madrid top the rankings for the longest average contract duration of first team squad members. Six out of the eight top ranked clubs are still competing in European Cups. This illustrates the relationships between long-term planning and success. The 222nd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the data for all big-5 league teams.
On average, a Barcelona first team squad member has 3.23 years of contract remaining. This figure is 3.59 for the 11 players who have been fielded the most in domestic league games so far this year. The longest average contract durations for the other big-5 leagues were measured for Tottenham , LOSC Lille, RB Leipzig and AS Rome.
At the opposite end of the table, the lowest figure overall was observed for the French side Amiens (0.99 years). In three clubs only, the average contract duration of the 11 most fielded players is below one year: Crotone, Benevento and Strasbourg. All the teams at the bottom of the rankings are confronted with the difficulty of renovating their squads without losing competitiveness.
Issue number 221 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the percentage of matches with a gap of three or more goals in 29 European competitions. The highest figure so far this season was observed for the Champions League: 29% (+8% compared to the same moment during last season). This percentage is twice as high as at Europa League level: 16% (+3%).
The English Premier League had so far the third highest proportion of very uneven matches among the competitions surveyed: 22% (+4%). At the opposite end of the table, the German Bundesliga is by far the big-5 European league with the lowest percentage of games with a three or more goal gap: 11% (-6%). The lowest proportion overall was measured in Russia: 10% (-4%).
The percentage of imbalanced fixtures increased in 20 out of the 29 competitions analysed. Overall, the average goal gap per match increased from 1.37 to 1.40. The highest figure for this indicator was also recorded at Champions League level: 1.87 from 1.55 last season (+21%). This analysis reveals the general trend towards competitive unbalance in European football.
The 220th issue of the Weekly Post presents players from the big-5 who performed the best in domestic league matches during the last three months. Footballers are ranked according to the exclusive approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory to measure the technical performance of players. Only footballers who played at least 45 minutes in eight championship matches are included in the rankings.
The CIES Football methodology takes into account the performance of players in six different areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting. In addition, the results obtained by the clubs of employment for matches in which players were fielded for at least 45 minutes were also taken into consideration as a weighting factor.
The following players head the table in their respective position: Hugo Lloris (goalkeepers), Kalidou Koulibaly (centre backs), Mário Rui (full backs), Toni Kroos (defensive midfielders), Christian Eriksen (box-to-box midfielders), Lionel Messi (wingers) and Cristiano Ronaldo (forwards). This widget allows users accessing the rankings for different periods.
The CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post number 219 presents the 50 big-5 league players with the most positive gap between their current transfer value and the fee paid for them by their employer club. The greatest potential added value could be achieved by Tottenham Hotspur with Harry Kane: €198 million.
Another player trained by his club of employment ranks second: Lionel Messi. However, given Messi’s age, the potential profit for Barcelona will progressively reduce. Dele Alli is third with a potential added value of €164 million. The possible benefit for Atlético Madrid regarding Antoine Griezmann does not take into account the €100 million buy-out clause negotiated by the Frenchman during his last contract extension.
The estimated values are calculated using an exclusive algorithm conceived by the CIES Football Observatory research team. An increasing number of professional clubs and football intermediaries have recourse to the approach developed for transfer negotiations and litigation. The estimations for all big-5 league players are available here.
The 33rd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents a comparative analysis of the presence of club-trained players in 31 European top divisions between 2009 and 2017. It notably reveals that footballers having been for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21 in their club of employment accounted for almost one quarter of champion winning team squads, compared to only about one fifth for all clubs surveyed.
The ability to develop footballers for the first team squad contributes to the competitive advantage held by the most successful clubs. However, this finding is partially related to the current club-trained player definition. Indeed, after three years, a player recruited up until the age of 18 can still be considered as a club-trained footballer for the team that signed him. This encourages top European teams to lure the best talents initially trained by less competitive clubs.
A change in the definition of club-trained or association-trained players would be useful to ensure a sounder development of the European game. Lowering the relevant age range from 15 to 21 years to 12 to 17 years would be helpful in limiting the increasing speculation around the transfer of minors. Indeed, according to FIFA rules, communitarian players can only move abroad after their 16th birthday. This would de facto disallow recruiting teams or associations to acquire a training status for players imported as minors.
While having a well performing youth academy does not lead directly to success, the report shows that it is a relevant indicator of the club’s ability to look to the future. The existence of a powerful youth setting is also a good indicator of the club’s strength as a territorially embedded organisation. Beyond short-term results, investing in youth training can be considered a gauge for the sustainable development of the club as an institution.
Issue number 218 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights big-5 league players whose transfer value has increased the most during the last six months. Only footballers who did not change team or extend their contract are included in the rankings. In the top positions are three English Premier League players: Mohammed Salah (+€74.7M), Ederson Moraes (+€74.4M) and Leroy Sané (+€63.0M).
The strongest increases for players from the four other major European chmpionships were recorded for Kylian Mbappé (+€54.7M) in the French Ligue 1, Paulinho Bezerra (+€42.4) in the Spanish Liga, Sergej Milinkovi?-Savi? (+€40.7M) in the Italian Serie A and Dayot Upamecano (+€35.6M) in the German Bundesliga.
Transfer value estimates are based on the exclusive algorithm developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. Current figures for all of the big-5 league footballers can be accessed here. This unique widget presents the trends since last summer. For more information and analysis, you can follow us on Twitter.
The CIES Football Observatory has partnered with the leading football data company InStat to analyse the performance of teams across Europe. Issue number 217 of the Weekly Post lists the 100 clubs from 31 competitions with the best ratios between shots taken and conceded from the box during the current domestic league season. Porto ranks first ahead of Ludogorets and Crvena Zvezda.
Porto attempted 3.79 more shots from the opponents’ box than those conceded from its own box. The best ratios in the five major European leagues were measured for Napoli (2.93), Manchester City (2.87), Paris St-Germain (2.73), Bayern Munich (2.47) and Liverpool (2.23). Surprisingly, Real Madrid (2.10) outranks Barcelona (1.82). This finding suggests that Zidane’s side was particularly unlucky at domestic league level so far this season.
The top 50 lists of the best performing clubs from 35 European leagues for defence, possession and attack are available on the CIES Football Observatory website. For more information about InStat data and additional analysis requests, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
Issue number 216 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post uses OptaPro data to analyse the dribbling skills of big-5 league players. The dribbling index is calculated by multiplying the average number of dribbles achieved per 90 minutes with the percentage of successful ones. This allows us to take into account both the quantity and quality of dribbles. Three players clearly distinguish themselves in this area: Eden Hazard, Neymar and Lionel Messi.
While Neymar won so far a higher number of contests per 90 domestic league minutes, Hazard achieved a greater percentage of dribbles attempted: 75% compared to 62%. Messi’s success rate is also 62%. The highest percentages of successful dribbles among players figuring in the top 100 were measured for central midfielders: Mousa Dembélé, Mario Lemina, Julian Draxler, etc. This finding reflects the more defensive location of their dribbles.
Players trained in France are over-represented at the top of the table: nine in the first 15 positions. This reveals the excellence of the French training system and its ability to promote skilful players. The best ranked footballers trained in the other countries hosting the five major European leagues are Isco (16th), Zaha and Loftus-Cheek (19th), Draxler (19th) and D’Alessandro (38th). The technical profile of all big-5 league players is available here.
The CIES Football Observatory has analysed the domestic league experience cumulated during the last two years by U20 players from 22 European competitions to identify those with the best career prospects. Minutes played by each footballer were weighted according to the sporting level of leagues and the results achieved by employer clubs. Weekly Post number 215 presents the 50 players with the highest experience capital scores.
The five-star prospect category includes ten players who should be able to establish themselves in the very best European teams. In the top three positions are Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alban Lafont and Kylian Mbappé. Eighteen footballers make up the four-star category list. All of these players have a concrete possibility to spend the big part of their career in the most competitive European championships. Three-star prospects also are in a favourable position to stay or reach the highest levels of the football pyramid.
The capital experience methodology exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team allows market actors to compare talents across leagues on an objective basis. This is particularly useful from a scouting perspective. Last season’s rankings are accessible here. The freshly published February’s Monthly Report investigates the link between age and success in Europe.
The demographic analysis of squads is a key research area of the CIES Football Observatory. The 32nd edition of the Monthly Report analyses the age structure of teams from 31 top division European leagues. This allows us to show discrepancies on an international level, while also investigating the links between the age structure of teams and success.
The comparative analysis of the average age of champions since 2009 reveals great cultural differences in the perception of the most favourable age structure for a squad. At one extreme, the youngest champions are to be found in the Netherlands (24.2 years), where teams pay high attention to the training and development of young talents. At the other extreme, Cypriot champion teams had the oldest squads over the period surveyed (28.8 years).
Generally, clubs that are more competitive have older squads. However, after a certain threshold of sporting and economic power, the age structure of clubs tends to converge around 26.5 years of age. Between 2009 and 2017, the median age of champions in the five major European leagues was also 26.5 years old. In order to achieve success at the highest level, it is important for clubs to have as many players who did not celebrate their 27th birthday than footballers over this age threshold.
No club in football history has invested as much money in transfer indemnities to assemble the squad than Manchester City presently. Despite the loan of Mangala to Everton, the expensive signing of Laporte brought the total squad recruitment cost to a record high of €878 M. The data for all big-5 league teams is available in issue number 214 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
Manchester City outranks Paris St-Germain (€805 M), Manchester United (€747 M) and Barcelona (€725 M). These are the only clubs having spent more than €700 M to assemble their current squad. The economic logic suggests that the next Champions League winners is to be found among these teams. However, while money is important, other factors such as team cohesion can influence the course of events.
The average amounts invested in transfer fees by league and team varies between €97 M for the French Ligue 1 to a record high of €291 M at English Premier League level. The figures in the three other competitions of the big-5 are more balanced: €113 M for the German Bundesliga, €124 M for the Italian Serie A and €131 M for the Spanish Liga. In total, 42 clubs out of 98 have a squad recruitment cost of more than €100 M.
Issue number 213 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses transactions carried out by big-5 league clubs during January’s transfer window. For the first time in history, the total estimated spending was over one billion euro. Transfer expenditure increased by 36% compared to the previous record figure measured in 2017. English Premier League investments accounted for 51% of transfer indemnities paid by big-5 league clubs as a whole.
Since 2010, Premier League teams always had negative balance sheets for operations carried out during winter windows. The net balance in 2018 was -€113 M despite the expensive transfers of Philippe Coutinho and Diego Costa from England to Spain. These signings mainly explain the record deficit observed for Spanish Liga teams: -€188 M. The estimated balance sheets for the three other major European championships were positive: +€48 M for the Italian Serie A, +€33 M for the German Bundesliga and +€14 M for the French Ligue 1.
Once again, a high correlation (75%) was measured between values estimated through the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm and fees paid by clubs. However, the majority of transfers were concluded for higher amounts than those estimated. This confirms the ongoing inflation trend in football players’ transfer market. The updated transfer values for all big-5 league squad members are available here.
The CIES Football Observatory research group is happy to disclose a brand new “performance rankings” widget. This exclusive tool allows users to assess the level of big-5 league players over four different time periods: last week, last month, last three months and last six months. Footballers are ranked according to their pitch production in domestic league matches using the unique statistics produced by the leading data company OptaPro.
At the head of the European rankings for the last six and three months is David Silva (Manchester City), while Lionel Messi tops the table for the last month. Among the players who obtained the highest possible mark for last week matches are established stars such as Ángel Di Maria (Paris St-Germain), Arjen Robben (Bayern Munich) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid), as well as promising talents such as Álex Berenguer (Torino), Amine Harit (Schalke 04) and Moise Kean (Verona).
Two other widgets are available on the CIES Football Observatory website. They allow users comparing the technical profile of big-5 league players and monitoring trends in their transfer values. More information on the performance algorithms developed by the CIES Football Observatory is available here. This research note presents the approach used to estimate the transfer value of professional footballers.
The CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post number 212 presents the 100 clubs from 31 European competitions having achieved the most accurate passes per domestic league game since the start of the season. The Post also includes the exclusive InStat data on the percentage of accurate passes and the average number of passes completed per minute of possession.
All teams qualified for the last 16 round of the UEFA Champions League are in the top 100 positions of the rankings. However, the gaps are quite marked. At one end, Manchester City (1st) achieved 685 passes per match (17.2 per minute of possession). At the other end, FC Basel (94th) only completed 426 passes per domestic league game (14.4 per minute of possession). This is the highest gap between last 16 round adversaries.
The highest cumulated number of accurate passes per game for Champions League opponents was recorded for Paris St-Germain (622) and Real Madrid (540). At the opposite end is the Manchester United (459) and Sevilla (456) fixture. Our analysis suggests that these oppositions will be particularly even. The most probable quarter finalists with respect to pass statistics are Manchester City, Paris St-Germain, Bayern Munich, Shaktar Donetsk, Barcelona, Juventus, Liverpool and Manchester United.
Issue number 211 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from the five major European championships according to the percentage of players signed from foreign clubs. Manchester City tops the rankings with 17 international recruitments out of 22 players fielded so far in domestic league games (77.3%). At the opposite end of the table is Athletic Club Bilbao (one player, Aymeric Laporte, out of 23).
The proportion of players signed from abroad is above two thirds in six other clubs: Chelsea, Lazio, Sevilla, Leipzig, Paris St-Germain and Udinese. In total, 29 teams recruited at least half of the footballers fielded so far from foreign clubs. English Premier League teams are over-represented among those transferring the highest percentage of squad members from abroad. Burnley (9.1%) and Bournemouth (9.5%) are exceptions to the rule.
In general, the most competitive clubs sign a greater percentage of players from foreign teams than lesser performing ones. However, this is not a fatality. Liverpool, Juventus, Real Madrid, Napoli, Manchester United, Barcelona and Tottenham all signed less than half of current squad members from abroad. The freshly published 31st edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents a deeper analysis of transfer networks in professional football.
Football offers a wide array of possibilities to undertake network analysis. Issue number 31 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report focuses on transfer networks from a triple research perspective. What are the main destinations for players from the three principal exporting countries: Brazil, Argentina and France? What are the big-5 league clubs’ recruitment areas? Where do Real Madrid, Manchester United, AS Rome, Bayern Munich and Paris St-Germain sign their players?
The study shows that the Brazilian player is the only truly global worker in the professional football labour market. Brazilians are present in 80 of the 91 associations covered in the study. While also numerous abroad, Argentineans and French migrate relatively more to neighbouring countries. The analysis also reveals that teams from the five major European championships transfer a higher percentage of players from abroad. However, the proportion of footballers signed from non-European countries is on the decrease.
An increasing number of players in general, and non-European ones more specifically, first move to intermediary countries in order to prove themselves before to eventually being able to attain a club in the big-5 leagues. Within this increasingly speculative and fragmented context, many footballers get lost along the way. Today more than ever, mental strength and cultural adaptability are of key importance to have a successful career path.
The technical statistics produced by the leading data football company InStat are very valuable to analyse performance on an objective basis. Issue number 210 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 50 teams in 35 European competitions with the most positive and negative gaps between points per match achieved and predicted on the basis of a performance model including the variables of shots conceded from the box, possession and shots on target.
The highest positive gap between points achieved and predicted according to pitch production was recorded for Viktoria Plze?. The Czech side obtained so far 2.88 points per game instead of 1.6. At big-5 league level, the greater positive difference between points achieved and expected was measured for Atlético Madrid. Burnley, Monaco, Manchester United, Nantes and Valencia were also particularly efficient.
Conversely, Greek sides Platanias heads the table for teams that achieved the least points per game with respect to their performance level (-0.97 points per match). Benevento and Milan AC were also particularly inefficient. Future will tell to what extent these negative gaps are related to bad luck. The European rankings for the three performance metrics used for this analysis are available here. Please contact us for more information about InStat data.
Like every January, the CIES Football Observatory has calculated the transfer values of players in the five major European leagues. The assessment takes into account the key criteria used by market actors such as age, position, contract duration, performance, international status, etc. Neymar (€213m) heads the table ahead of Lionel Messi (€202m) and Harry Kane (€195m). The top 100 list is available in issue number 209 of the Weekly Post.
Five players from the English Premier League are in the top ten: Harry Kane (2nd), Dele Alli (6th), Kevin de Bruyne (7th), Romelu Lukaku (8th) and Paul Pogba (10th). However, the highest estimated values for goalkeepers and defenders were recorded for two FC Barcelona’s players: Marc-André ter Stegen (€96m) and Samuel Umtiti (€101m). Paulo Dybala (€175m) heads the Serie A rankings, while Robert Lewandowski (€107m) has the greatest figure for German Bundesliga players.
This research note details the scientific methodology used for these estimates. The ratings module on the CIES Football Observatory website presents the values for all big-5 league players. This transfer widget displays the trends from a comparative perspective. Potential clients and commercial partners are kindly invited to contact us to develop new collaborations for a new and exciting football year!
FC Barcelona currently employs 20 players fielded by national A-teams in 2017 for a record number of 139 matches and 10,846 minutes. The Catalan side outranks two English clubs (Manchester United and Tottenham), Juventus FC and Bayern Munich. At sixth place is the Nicaraguan team Real Estelí. The top 100 list is available in issue number 208 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
England is the most represented country in the top 100 positions: 16 clubs. Five English teams are in the top 10. Germany (10 clubs) and Italy (9) are the second and third nations with the most representatives in the top 100 rankings. The presence of six teams from the United States confirms the robust development of the professional game in this country.
Overall, 38 associations have at least one club ranked in the top 100. Among them, 20 are UEFA member associations, while 18 belongs to other Confederations. The three best ranked non-European teams are Real Estelí from Nicaragua, Al Sadd from Qatar and San Jose Earthquakes from the United States. For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
Our warmest season’s greetings to you and your family, and our best wishes for a happy and successful New Year!
Every semester, the CIES Football Observatory lists players who performed the best in big-5 league matches using an exclusive statistical approach. Issue number 207 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 tables for eight positions. Only footballers who played at least 720’ domestic league minutes are included in the rankings.
Players from four leagues head the tables: Liga’s Jan Oblak (goalkeepers) and Lionel Messi (wingers); Premier League’s Nicolás Otamendi (centre backs) and Sergio Agüero (centre forwards); Ligue 1’s Marco Verratti (box-to-box midfielders) and Nabil Fekir (second strikers); as well as Serie A’s Faouzi Ghoulam (full backs) and Jorginho Frello (defensive midfielders).
Besides established football stars, in the top 10 tables also are relatively unknown footballers such as Nick Pope (Burnley), Alisson Becker (Roma), Michael Gregoritsch (Hoffenheim), Luis Alberto (Lazio) or Rodrigo Moreno (Valencia). The most represented club is Manchester City (12 players), ahead of Paris St-Germain (8 players).
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The young French prodigy Kylian Mbappé heads the CIES Football Observatory table for the U21 big-5 league players with the highest estimated transfer values. The Paris Saint-Germain striker outranks Dele Alli (Tottenham Hotspur) and Leroy Sané (Manchester City). The top 100 list is available in the issue number 206 of the Weekly Post.
According to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s algorithm, during the last three months, the transfer value of Kylian Mbappé has increased from €133.8 M to €182.8 M (+37%). This allowed him to outrank Dele Alli, whose transfer value remained stable at around €180 M. Ousmane Dembélé (Barcelona), Timo Werner (RB Leipzig) and Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) top the rankings in their respective leagues.
The estimated transfer values for all big-5 league players are available in the ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory’s website. This widget allows you comparing transfer value trends. Media and clubs interested in this tool or in our services can contact us.
The CIES Football Observatory and FIFA have joined forces to analyse the profiles of the players who were fielded by the 32 qualified teams on the road to Russia. The analysis highlights the diversity of the squads in terms of both age and height, as well as the importance of migration with almost two thirds of footballers currently playing for clubs outside of the association they represent.
Nigeria fielded the youngest players (with an average age of 24.9 years) in the qualifiers, followed by title-holders Germany (25.7) and by U-17 and U-20 world champions England (25.9). At the opposite end of the spectrum are two newcomers Panama (29.4 years) and Iceland (29.0), as well as 2014 FIFA World Cup quarter-finalists Costa Rica (29.0).
There were also considerable differences among the teams in terms of the average height of players. At one extreme, seven associations fielded players with an average height of less than 180cm: Peru, Argentina and Uruguay (CONMEBOL), Saudi Arabia and Japan (AFC), Mexico (CONCACAF), and Spain (UEFA). At the other extreme, the average height of the players fielded by four European nations – Iceland, Denmark, Sweden and Serbia – was at least 185cm.
The study also reveals that about 9% of players were born outside of the association they represent. Only seven of the 32 teams did not field any players born abroad. The number of footballers playing for clubs outside of the association they represent also illustrates the importance of migration in football. In total, 64.6% of footballers play abroad: from 0% for England and Saudi Arabia, to 100% for Croatia, Sweden and Iceland.
The full study is available in issue number 30 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. The CIES Football Observatory is a research group within the Centre International d’Étude du Sport (CIES), a Swiss-based independent study centre founded in 1995 by FIFA in partnership with the canton and town of Neuchâtel. More information is available at www.cies.ch and www.football-observatory.com.
The 204th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post lists the 10 most fielded footballers per position born in or after 1997 in both the big-5 leagues and 26 other top division European championships. With 19 players, the French Ligue 1 is by far the most represented competition. The youngest footballer in the big-5 league tables is Dan-Axel Zagadou (Borussia Dortmund).
Players from all of the five major European championships except Germany head the big-5 league rankings: Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) and Alban Lafont (Toulouse) for goalkeepers, Unai Núñez (Athletic Club) for centre backs, Kelvin Amian (Toulouse) for full backs, Lucas Tousart (Lyon) for defensive midfielders, Carlos Soler (Valencia) for attacking midfielders, as well as Richarlison (Watford) for forwards.
The most represented leagues among the remaining 26 competitions studied are the Dutch and Slovakian top divisions (8 players each), followed by the Croatian (6) and Ukrainian (5) ones. The youngest footballer in the rankings is Juho Hyvärinen (Rovaniemi). The average age on the pitch for all clubs and leagues analysed is available in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas.
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Issue number 203 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses data provided by InStat to highlight the 100 clubs from 35 European competitions that conceded the least shots from their own box per domestic league game played since the start of the season. The lowest figure was recorded for Olimpija Ljubljana, while Manchester City heads the big-5 league rankings.
Only 12 clubs from the five major European leagues are in the top 100. This is mainly due to more open styles of play, as notably illustrated in the 28th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. Panathinaikos is the most impermeable team among those not ranked in the top three positions of their league.
The top 50 rankings for defence, possession and attack are available on the CIES Football Observatory website. For more information about data produced by the leading football data company InStat, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
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Issue number 202 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks big-5 league teams according to the estimated transfer value of their players. The aggregated value of current squad members is above one billion euro for four clubs: Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, FC Barcelona and Chelsea FC.
Transfer values are estimated on the basis of the algorithm exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. According to this, Manchester City’s current squad has a total transfer value of almost €1.2 billion. Kevin de Bruyne is the potentially most expensive Manchester City player (€144.5 million), while three other City’s squad members are worth more than €100 million: Leroy Sané, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus.
The up-to-date estimated values for all big-5 league players are available in the ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory website. The freshly conceived transfer value widget presents the historical trends for each player. Media interested in using this tool can contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
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Since 2009, the CIES Football Observatory has monitored the evolution of the demographics of players in 31 European top division leagues. The 2017 census reveals the intensification of the key trends observed throughout the period analysed: decrease of club-trained players, increase of expatriates and growing squad instability. The Monthly Report number 29 presents the data for all leagues studied.
Henceforth, club-trained players only account for 18.5% of squads (-4.7% since 2009). It is the lowest figure ever recorded. Conversely, the percentage of expatriates reached a new record high: 39.7% (+5.0% since 2009). A new record high was also observed with regard to the percentage of players signed during the year: 44.8% (+8.1% since 2009).
These trends reflect the increasing speculation on transfer operations and, more generally, in the management of professional teams across Europe. The central question is to know just how far this process can go without jeopardising the interest of competitions, the credibility of professional football and its sustainable development in the majority of countries.
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Issue number 201 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the lists of the 50 clubs from 36 European leagues who fielded the tallest and shortest line-ups since the start of the season. At the head of the rankings are FC København (186.2cm) and Ludogorets Razgrad (177.0cm). But does height explain success at adult level?
No correlation exists between the average height of teams and results achieved. The gaps observed rather reflect different approaches to the game. While some coaches prefer tall players, other give priority to shorter ones. However, very short players will struggle to establish themselves as professionals. The average height of all footballers in the leagues surveyed is 182.1 cm.
In total, only 67 clubs out of 572 (11.7%) fielded players on average shorter than 180cm. Among them, we notably find Manchester City (Guardiola), OGC Nice (Favre), FC Barcelona (Valverde), Olympique Lyonnais (Génésio) and Real Madrid (Zidane). The data for all teams in 31 top division European leagues is available in the CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas.
The CIES Football Observatory has further developed its website with the inclusion of a brand new player performance widget. Using data provided by OptaPro, this unique tool allows users to compare the technical profile of players from the five major European leagues.
The comparison takes into account the performance of players in six areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting. The CIES Football Index measures the general performance of footballers over the last 1,000 domestic league minutes played. More information on the exclusive CIES Football Observatory approach is available in this research note.
This new and exciting tool is an ideal complement to the transfer value trend widget launched last month. The CIES Football Observatory research team is happy to stay at your disposal for any request at football.observatory@cies.ch.
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Issue number 200 of the increasingly popular CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights the clubs having trained the most footballers present on the 1st of October 2017 in 31 top division European leagues. At the top of the table is Ajax Amsterdam, while Real Madrid trained the most big-5 league players.
Following UEFA’s definition, training clubs are teams where players stayed for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21. AFC Ajax trained 71 footballers currently active in the 31 European championships surveyed. This figure was 72 on the 1st of October 2016. The Dutch team outranks Dinamo Zagreb (67) and Partizan Belgrad (61).
As for 2016, Real Madrid tops the table for big-5 league players. Eight of the 41 footballers trained by the Spanish side still play at Real Madrid. The second and third teams having trained the most players currently active in the five major European championships are Barcelona (34) and Olympique Lyonnais (31).
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The ability of teams to shoot is a key success factor. This holds even more true with regard to shots on target. Using the exclusive data produced by InStat, issue number 199 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 clubs from the main top division European leagues presenting the highest figures for shots on target per match during the current season.
No team in the competitions surveyed achieved as many shots on target per domestic league game as SSC Napoli: 8.9. The Italian top-ranked team outranks Ajax (8.5) and their opponents in tonight Champions League game Manchester City (8.0).
The number of shots on target correlates inversely with the average distance of shots attempted. The best performing teams not only attempt more shots overall, but shoot on average from a closer range than less competitive sides. Consequently, the percentage of their shots that reach the target is generally higher.
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Issue number 198 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks top division teams from 31 European associations according to the percentage of domestic league minutes played by expatriates since the start of the season. Three Cypriot clubs are at the top of this ranking: Apollon Limassol (99.8%), Anorthosis Famagusta (95.3%) et AEK Larnaca (91.5%). Chelsea is ranked first at the big-5 league level (90.4%).
Expatriates are players who grew up in a different association from that of their employer club and who went abroad for football-related reasons. Only three teams out of the 466 included in the analysis did not yet field expatriate footballers in domestic league games this season: Oleksandriya (UKR), Veres (UKR) and HIFK (FIN).
In total, expatriates played 41.6% of minutes available. At league level, this figure varies from 80.2% in the Cypriot top division to 15.0% in Serbia. The data for all leagues and clubs surveyed is available for free in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas.
The analysis of pitch performances at both individual and collective level is one of the three principle fields of research of the CIES Football Observatory. The 28th edition of our Monthly Report compares 35 national competitions across Europe using the database made available by the InStat company. The sample comprises 19,544 matches played between the 1st September 2015 and the 31st August 2017.
The analysis focuses on three aspects: the teams’ ball management, the degree of openness of games, as well as the level of power balance between opponents. The principle conclusion drawn is that the top leagues differentiate themselves above all by the fluidity of games, as illustrated by the highest level of successful passes and the quickest ball circulation.
The five best values in terms of passes per minutes of possession were recorded for the five major European championships, with a maximum of 18.2 for the German Bundesliga. The big-5 leagues also top the table for the percentage of successful passes, with a maximum of 82.4% for the Italian Serie A. More surprisingly, the Swedish and Israeli top divisions figure high in this ranking.
This study is but an initial foray in exploiting the numerous possibilities available thanks to the new collaboration between the CIES Football Observatory and InStat. The depth and breadth of data produced by this company constitutes a solid basis for many future research projects.
The CIES Football Observatory has specialised in the scientific estimation of professional players’ transfer value. Issue number 197 of the Weekly Post highlights big-5 league footballers whose transfer value augmented the most in absolute terms since July 2017. At the head of the rankings are Romelu Lukaku (+€56m), Kylian Mbappé (+€50m) and Paulo Dybala (+€47m).
The estimated value of Romelu Lukaku increased by 54% during the last three months: from €102.7m before his transfer to Manchester United to €158.5 m after his excellent start of the season. Beyond inflation, expensive transfers to other teams, contract extensions and top level performances are the key reasons underlying the strongest increases observed.
In relative terms, the increase was above 100% for many young and promising players. Among them notably are Patrick Cutrone (Milan), Adama Diakhaby (Monaco) and Dennis Geiger (Hoffenheim). The exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer value widget presents the trends for all big-5 league players, while their technical profile is available here.
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