The 158th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the beneficiaries of transfer investments made by big-5 league clubs. Between 2010 and 2016, roughly two thirds of the fees were paid out to other teams taking part in the five major European championships. This percentage varies between 63% in Italy and 70% in England.

Out of the €19.5 billion spent by big-5 league clubs over the seven years analysed, €12.9 billion benefited teams from the same competitions. To be able to generate considerable incomes on the transfer market, it is necessary to have sufficient economic clout and prestige to attract the best talents either young or adult.

In the current state of play, clubs without the necessary economic muscle have little chance of earning consistent amounts. A good access to dominant transfer networks is also of crucial importance. The main beneficiaries are presented in issue number 157 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

More data and insights are available in the 17th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

Issue number 157 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 teams having generated the most income from the transfer of players to big-5 league clubs since 2010. Liverpool tops the rankings with €442 million, ahead of Valencia (€432 million) and Juventus (€415 million).

The comparison with the figures on expenditure published last week shows that the transfer balance for Liverpool was negative: -€221 million (not including sales to non big-5 league clubs). However, this is a much lower net loss than for Manchester City (-€777 million), Manchester United (-€659 million) or Chelsea (-€513 million). The figures for Arsenal and Tottenham are -€279 million, respectively -€88 million.

Only nine clubs outside the big-5 league countries are in the top 50 positions for transfer incomes: Benfica (4th), Porto (5th), Ajax (30th), Sporting Lisboa (33rd), Santos (42nd), PSV Eindhoven (45th), Dinamo Zagreb (47th), Shakhtar Donetsk (49th) and São Paulo (50th).

More data and insights are available in the 17th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

The 17th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses monetary flows related to the transfer of players within European football. Since 2010, big-5 league club investments have grown almost continually year after year to reach a new record of €4.2 billion in 2016.

Over the seven years analysed, the clubs from the five major European championships have paid €19.5 billion in transfer fees. Premier League teams have spent €7.5 billion, which accounts for 39% of total expenditure. This percentage reached 42% in 2016.

Issue number 156 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the table of clubs who spent the most on transfer fees since 2010 and in 2016. In both cases, Manchester City heads the rankings: €1 billion since 2010 and €231 million in 2016 (including add-ons). In the former table, Guardiola’s team outranks Chelsea (€871 million) and Manchester United (€841 million).

Issue number 155 of the Weekly Post presents the most profitable transfers of the summer from a selling club perspective. The highest gaps between fees paid (add-ons included) and amounts estimated via the CIES Football Observatory algorithm were measured for Gonzalo Higuaín at individual level (+ €23.8 million) and Sevilla FC at team level (+ €34.9 million).

Regarding Higuaín, the existence of a €90 million buy-out clause allowed Naples to cash much more money than it would have been reasonable to expect. In the top three of the best summer sales are also Eric Bailly (+ €23.5 million) and Kevin Gameiro (+ €22.5 million). Time will tell if these risky operations from a financial perspective will prove to be sportingly profitable.

Sevilla heads the club rankings ahead of Crystal Palace and Naples. The six paying fee transfers completed by the Spanish side were negotiated € 34.9 million above the aggregated value calculated through the CIES Football Observatory algorithm. Crystal Place’s second position is mainly related to the price negotiated for Yannick Bolasie’s transfer to Everton.

The 16th edition of the Monthly Report provides more details on the CIES Football Observatory approach to calculate both transfer values and probabilities of professional footballers. During the last transfer window, the correlation measured between fees estimated and paid was 80%. The ratings module on the CIES Football Observatory website presents the estimates for current big-5 league players. For more information, please contact us.

While the transfer window did not yet come to an end, it is already possible to have a good idea of the profile of squads assembled by clubs. Issue number 154 of the CIES Football Observatory Big-5 Weekly Post analyses the average age per team of players fielded in domestic league games.

Up until now, the youngest team at big-5 league level is Nice: 23.3 years. In the English Premier League, the lowest value was recorded for Tottenham (25.5 years). At the opposite end of the spectrum we find Chievo in Europe (31.4 years) and Watford in England (29.8 years).

Among teams qualified for the UEFA Champions League, the average age varies from 24.5 years for Bayer Leverkusen to 29.7 years for Juventus. The second and third youngest teams are the French sides Monaco (24.9 years) and Lyon (25.2 years). All information is available here.

While the summer transfer window is approaching deadline, it is possible to compare predictions published in June by the CIES Football Observatory with reality. As for Gonzalo Higuaín, many players with the highest fee paying transfer probability in June have already changed club.

Among players whose transfer value on June 1st 2016 was higher than 25 million €, the most likely to be still transferred until the end of the transfer window is Alexandre Lacazette (Olympique Lyonnais). His current transfer value is around 50 million € (+ 8 million € since last June).

Also at the top of the June’s transfer probability list, Antoine Griezmann has in the meanwhile extended his contract with Atlético Madrid. This suggests that the French prodigy will not be transferred until 2017. His current transfer value is close to 130 million €.

The ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory website allows users to access the transfer values of all big-5 league players, as well as exclusive statistics on their pitch performance and career paths.

The correlation between values estimated by our algorithm and fees already paid this summer is almost 80%. This confirms the high explaining power of our exclusive approach. For more information, please contact us.

Since the start of July and the launching of the brand new player ratings service, the number of pages visited on the CIES Football Observatory website was multiplied by six. This exclusive tool notably provides the most reliable estimation of the transfer value of big-5 league players currently available on the market.

The ratings module also presents the exclusive CIES Football Observatory performance index for big-5 league players, as well as data on footballers’ career paths such as, among others, experience level compared to other players and transfer fees generated over the career.

For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch

The CIES Football Observatory has extended its online offering by launching a ratings module with exclusive statistics on big-5 league players. The new resource includes indicators such as transfer value, pitch performance and level of experience.

Dr Raffaele Poli, head of the CIES Football Observatory, said, “this development is a crucial step towards our recognition as the global leader in the scientific assessment of the transfer value of professional footballers. The tool will allow us to further highlight the accuracy of the algorithm developed”.

All things being equal, a wealthier club will have to invest more to sign a player. As a result, the transfer values published refer to the fee corresponding to the type of team most likely to be interested in recruiting the player. The specific price per recruiter club is only available on a consultancy basis.

Users have the possibility to give their opinion by indicating if the transfer value estimated by the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm is lower, equal or greater than the real market price.

The ratings module also presents the sporting level of big-5 league players by means of an index taking into account performances achieved during the last 1,000 domestic league minutes in six areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting.

Finally, the new service includes data on the career path of a player and notably the number of league matches played at adult level. The level of experience of each player is then compared to the average measured at the same age for big-5 league footballers of the same position.

For more information on the CIES Football Observatory, please contact us.

References

Transfer values and probabilities
Technical analysis of player performance
Spotting future stars

According to the CIES Football Observatory exclusive algorithm, the transfer value of players in the English squad amounts to €751 million. This figures is over €500 million for four other teams: France (€697 million), Spain (€639 million), Germany (€601 million) and Belgium (€550 million). Issue number 153 of the Weekly Post presents the data for all nations.

The total transfer value of twelve participating teams out of 24 is lower than that of the most expensive player overall: Cristiano Ronaldo (€138 million). At the bottom of the table is Hungary (€30 million), ahead of Romania (€51 million), Albania (€57 million) and Slovakia (€59 million).

For more information about the approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory research group to estimate the transfer value of professional footballers, please refer to the 16th Monthly Report. Issue number 152 of the Weekly Post presents the top 100 list of the big-5 league players with the highest transfer values. A calculator for footballers in the five major European leagues is available on the CIES Football Observatory website.

Dear subscriber,
the publication of our exclusive analysis on the transfer value of big-5 league players has generated a high level of traffic. As a consequence, the website was no more accessible. This problem is now solved (refresh the browser). We thank you for your understanding and growing interest, best regards

Raffaele Poli, head of CIES Football Observatory

Links to our website
Weekly Post with the 100 top transfer values
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Transfer value calculator for big-5 league players

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Who are the footballers whose transfer value is above €100 million? Issue number 152 of the Weekly Post unveils the excusive CIES Football Observatory list of the 100 big-5 league players with the highest values from a transfer fee perspective. Besides Lionel Messi, seven other footballers currently have a transfer value of more than €100 million.

According to the CIES Football Observatory algorithm, the players whose transfer could be negotiated at more than €100 million are Messi, Neymar, Ronaldo, Griezmann, Kane, Martial, Suárez and Dybala. More information on the criteria taken into account and the methodology used is provided in the 16th edition of the Monthly Report.

Since 2013, the correlation between the transfer values predicted by the CIES Football Observatory’s algorithm and the fees actually paid for the recruitment of big-5 league players has been close to 80%. The strength of this correlation shows that, on one hand, the footballers’ transfer market is rational and, on the other, that its rationality has been well understood by the econometric model developed.

Per position, the most expensive players from a transfer fee standpoint are Thibault Courtois among goalkeepers (€48.4 million), David Alaba among centre backs (€48.8 million), Hector Bellerín among full backs (€55.6 million), Paul Pogba among central midfielders (€90.4 million), Eden Hazard among attacking midfielders (€78.3 million) and Lionel Messi among forwards (€211.1 million).

The 16th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory also presents the big-5 league players with the highest probability to be transferred for a sum of money. Among footballers with a transfer value of more than €25 million, the most likely to change team during next summer are Gonzalo Higuaín (€60.9 million), Alexandre Lacazette (€41.5 million), Michy Batshuayi (€25.2 million), Antoine Griezmann (€120.2 million) and Romelu Lukaku (€58.1 million).

For more information, please read issue number 16 of the Monthly Report. To contact us, please write at football.observatory@cies.ch

Issue number 151 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks big-5 league clubs according to the average transfer cost per player fielded. Leicester City was crowned despite the third lowest transfer expenditure at English Premier League level (€2.7 million per player). Conversely, Newcastle United could not avoid relegation despite having on average played with the 8th costliest line-up (€7.9 million per player).

In the four other major European championships, the most positive and negative gaps between the position in the transfer cost ranking and that achieved in the final table were measured for Las Palmas (+6) and Valencia (-9) in Spain; Angers (+8) and Marseille (-10) in France; Mainz (+10) and Hannover (-9) in Germany; as well as for Empoli (+7) and Palermo (-5) in Italy.

Overall, the team who fielded on average the most expensive line-up was Real Madrid (€32.2 million per player), followed by Manchester City (€27.5 million), Paris St-Germain (€27.0 million), Manchester United (€26.8 million) and Barcelona (€23.7 million). Champions League finalist Atlético Madrid ranks only 13th (€8.8 million).

David Silva heads the CIES Football Observatory table of the best performing big-5 league attacking midfielders. Manchester City’s Spaniard outranks Mesut Özil (Arsenal) and Henrik Mkhitaryan (Dortmund). In the top three positions for forwards are Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Zlatan Ibrahimovi? (Paris St-Germain) and Neymar (Barcelona). Issue number 150 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 for both positions.

Following the CIES Football Observatory statistical approach, six English Premier League players are to be found among the ten best performing attacking midfielders of the season. However, only Adam Lallana is eligible for the Three Lions team. The best ranked EPL footballer among forwards, Alexis Sánchez, is only 14th. Cristiano Ronaldo is sixth behind the youngest footballer listed: Paulo Dybala (Juventus, 22 years).

The rankings are established according to six Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), among which take on, chance creation and shooting (see table). More information is available in the 15th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. The study includes the rankings of players who out-performed the most their teammates, both per position and area of the game. This is particularly useful to unveil the potential of relatively unknown footballers

Last but not least, we also kindly invite you to visite our brand new version of our website.

According to the CIES Football Observatory analysis, Leicester City’s N’Golo Kanté is the best performing English Premier League defensive midfielder of the 2015/16 season. The French is the only EPL player in the top 10 positions. This figure is three at box-to-box midfielder level: Moussa Dembélé (Tottenham, 1st), Dele Alli (Tottenham, 4th) and Yaya Touré (Manchester City, 5th). Paul Pogba (Juventus) ranks 6th. Only footballers who played at least 60% of domestic league minutes are included.

The youngest players in the top 10 lists are Julian Weigl (Dortmund) among defensive midfielders and Dele Alli among box-to-box ones. Both players are only aged 20. The list also features 21-year-old Saúl Ñíguez. Atlético Madrid’s rising star ranks third among box-to-box midfielders of the Spanish Liga behind two great champions: World Cup winners Toni Kroos (Real Madrid) and Andrés Iniesta (Barcelona).

The analysis is based on the statistics of players in six areas of the game, weighted according to their importance per position (see table). Two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are crucial for defenders: rigour and recovery. The former area defines the ability to minimise opponents’ chances through robust duelling. The latter highlights proficient interception work. Only players fielded for at least 60% of minutes are included in the rankings.

According to our approach, the best performing full back over the 2015/16 English Premier League season was Aleksandar Kolarov (Manchester City). The Serbian is the only EPL player in the top 10 positions. Besides Nicolás Otamendi, Mamadou Sakho (Liverpool) is 10th among centre backs. The youngest footballers in the lists are Ricardo Pereira (Nice, on loan from Porto) for full backs (4th) and Samuel Umtiti (Lyon) for centre backs (9th). They are both aged 22.

According to our analysis, the best performing English Premier League goalkeeper is Hugo Lloris. Tottenham player only conceded 0.8 goals per match (0.5 for Manuel Neuer) and saved 73.9% of shots (78.8% for Manuel Neuer). The highest percentage of saves overall was recorded for Paris St-Germain goalkeeper Kevin Trapp: 80.6%. He is the only player with a percentage of saves greater than 80%.

The least performing goalkeeper both at Premier League and big-5 league level is Brad Guzan (Aston Villa). The American conceded 2 goals per match on average. His percentage of saves was 59.5%. Throughout the season, he won only the first game played on August 8th 2015 against Bournemouth. After this game, his team drew 5 matches and lost the remaining 22 in which Guzan participated.

In the next three Weekly Posts, we will present the rankings for six outfield positions: centre backs, full backs, defensive midfielders, box-to-box midfielders, attacking midfielders and forwards. For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch

Only in two big-5 league clubs out of 98, the percentage of long balls compared to total passes is higher than at Leicester: Darmstadt (10.7%) and Ingolstadt (7.8%). The highest figures in the three remaining big-5 leagues were recorded at Eibar (6.6%), Frosinone (6.3%) and Bastia (6.2%). At the opposite end of the spectrum are Paris St-Germain and Bayern Munich (both 1.1%), Barcelona (1.4%), Juventus (1.6%) and Manchester City (2.4%).

The average percentage of long balls for Champions League semi-finalists is 2.1%. At league level, this percentage varies between 3.8% in Italy and 4.6% in Germany. The figures in England and Spain (4.4%) are slightly greater than that observed in France (4.1%). In absolute terms, Deportivo La Coruña had the most recourse to long balls (851, two more than Leicester), while Bayern Munich the least (246).

For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

While the English national A-team is among the youngest at worldwide level, the number of eligible U23 players in the big-5 leagues with a higher experience capital than that of current Three Lions internationals at the same age is only five. This figure is much greater for the other nations hosting the five biggest European leagues: 30 for France, 22 for Spain, 18 for Italy and 17 for Germany. This finding both reflects the restricted talent pool available to England’s manager Roy Hodgson and the high experience level of current English full internationals.

The full list of the 92 most likely future English, Spanish, German, French and Italian full internationals is available here.

The study reviews U23 players currently present in 31 top division leagues in Europe. Footballers are ranked according to the level of experience gained since the start of their career at adult level. Among players listed, notably are two goalkeepers who were born in 1999: Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) and Alban Lafont (Toulouse).

The method of experience capital allows clubs to optimise their approach regarding transfers by considerably reducing the risks inherent in such operations, from both the sporting and economic point of view. For recruiting clubs, there is indeed no better guarantee than recruiting footballers who have had the opportunity to play as often as possible at the highest possible level taking into account their age and talent.

Our research team is at the service of clubs interested in finding out more about the practical modalities of implementing a talent spotting system of this kind.

The English Premier League does not only gather the highest percentage of foreign players (see the 12th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report), but it is also that where the most footballers were recruited from abroad: 43.1%. This percentage is only 31.2% for the French Ligue 1, while the big-5 league average is 36.5%.

The clubs per league who signed the highest proportion of their current squad members from foreign teams are Chelsea (75.0%), Monaco (73.1%), Lazio (67.9%), Sevilla (64.3%) and Bayern Munich (54.2%).

In total, 23 teams big-5 league teams out of 98 recruited at least half of their first team players from abroad: eight in England, five in both Spain and Italy, three in Germany and two in France. The data for all clubs is available in issue number 144 of the CIES Football Observatory Big-5 Weekly Post.

Since last June, Didier Deschamps has fielded 35 footballers who played during the current season in the big-5 leagues (34 for England). So far, they have on average played 1,913 domestic league minutes, which is about 21 matches per player. These figures are 1,585 and 17 for English national A-team players.

Up until now, the employer clubs of big-5 league players fielded by France have achieved 1.72 points per match. The highest value was recorded for teams of Spanish internationals (1.95), ahead of clubs employing footballers representing Germany (1.79) and Italy (1.77). On average, teams of English internationals achieved so far 1.61 points per match. This is only the 9th highest level among teams qualified.

The figures for all countries are available in issue number 143 of the Big-5 Weekly Post. For more information, the 11th CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents the squad profile of the 50 most competitive national A-teams at worldwide level. It notably shows that England fielded the youngest players in 2015 at European level.

The second coach with the longest stay at the head of his current club is Christophe Galtier at St-Etienne: 75 months. At the top of the tables in the other leagues are Giampiero Ventura (Torino, 57 months), Diego Simeone (Atlético Madrid, 51 months) and Markus Weinzierl (Augsburg, 45 months).

The median values per league vary between 16 months in the French Ligue 1 and only 9 months in the Italian Serie A. In the latter country, it is not unusual that clubs change many coaches during the same season. This reflects the lack of strategic vision of club officials more than any form of incompetence of coaches.

Between 1st July 2009 and 31st December 2015, footballers who did not yet celebrate their 22nd birthday played 14.6% of domestic league minutes in 31 top divisions throughout Europe. This percentage varies from 28.7% in Croatia to 6.1% in Cyprus. The highest value at big-5 league level was observed in the German Bundesliga (14.5%). This is almost twice as much as in the English Premier League and the Italian Serie A (7.5%).

At club level, the highest figures for teams always present in the top division league of their country during the period analysed were measured for Lokomotiva Zagreb (54.2%), OFK Belgrade (43.0%) and Feyenoord Rotterdam (39.8%). The record level in the big-5 was registered for Schalke 04 (25.0%), ahead of Toulouse (24.2%) and Bayer Leverkusen (20.7%). The record value in the English Premier League was at Liverpool (14.7%).

The Report also presents the lowest values of minutes played by U22 national footballers. AEL Limassol fielded young nationals for the fewest percentage of minutes (0.2%), followed by Stoke City and Juventus (both 0.4%). This figure was very low also at Chelsea (0.5%) and Manchester City (1.4%). Many other teams recently qualified for the Champions League are not concerned about giving young nationals their chance: Naples, Rome, Zenit, Fenerbahçe, Porto, etc.

Issue number 141 of the Big-5 Weekly Post presents the most experienced players born in or after 1995. Experience is calculated on the basis of domestic league matches played since the start of the career at adult level, weighted according to the sporting level of employer clubs. For more information about the experience capital approach exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team, please refer to the second edition of the Monthly Report.

Six players born in 1997 employed by clubs outside the big-5 leagues have a greater experience than any footballer born in the same year playing in the five major championships: Rúben Neves (Porto), Youri Tielemans (Anderlecht), Breel Embolo (Basle), Enes Ünal (NAC Breda, on loan from Manchester City), Ante ?ori? (Dinamo Zagreb) and Renato Sanches (Benfica). Sooner or later, they all should be able to settle in the most competitive leagues.

The top-10 tables for both players in the big-5 leagues and outside the five major European championships are presented in issue number 141 of the Big-5 Weekly Post. More information is available on request.

Francesco Totti is the big-5 league player who has been for the longest period in the club where he made his debut. The 39 year-old Italian is playing his 24th season at Rome. Conversely, his former teammate both at Rome and in the Italian national team Luca Toni already played for 15 clubs over his career. Both players were in the starting line-up of the 2006 World Cup final won against France.

The youngest player among the 28 big-5 league footballers who played for 10 or more clubs since the beginning of their professional career is the new Newcastle United signing Andros Townsend. While only aged 24, the English international already played for 11 teams: Tottenham Hotspur, Yeovil Town, Leyton Orient, Milton Keynes Dons, Ipswich Town, Watford, Millwall, Leeds, Birmingham City, Queens Park Rangers and Newcastle United.

The full lists are available here.

Overall, the current squad member of a big-5 league club who played the most domestic league games during his career is Leicester City’s goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer: 626 matches. Two other goalkeepers have already played more than 600 championship games over their career: Gianluigi Buffon (Juventus) and Kelvin Davis (Southampton).

Cristiano Ronaldo is second among players born in 1985 behind Bournemouth’s Simon Francis and ahead of Wayne Rooney. The top-3 tables are available in issue number 139 of the CES Football Observatory Big-5 Weekly Post. The analysis includes B-team matches.

The players listed below head the ranking for their age group.

Born on 1996 or after
Dele Alli, Tottenham, 98 matches
Born on 1995
Samu Castillejo, Villarreal, 129 matches
Born on 1994
Nathan Redmond, Norwich, 163 matches
Born on 1993
Romelu Lukaku, Everton, 210 matches
Born on 1992
Koke Resurrección, Atlético Madrid, 236 matches
Born on 1991
Eden Hazard, Chelsea, 277 matches
Born on 1990
James McCarthy, Everton, 295 matches
Born on 1989
Charlie Austin, Southampton, 320 matches
Born on 1988
Sergio Agüero, Manchester City, 368 matches
Born on 1987
Billy Jones, Sunderland, 395 matches
Born on 1986
James Milner, Liverpool, 410 matches
Born on 1985
Simon Francis, Bournemouth, 460 matches
Born on 1984
Wes Morgan, Leicester, 527 matches
Born on 1983
Jon Walters, Stoke City, 456 matches
Born on 1982
Rickie Lambert, West Bromwich, 597 matches
Born on 1981
Gareth Barry, Everton, 588 matches
Born on 1980
Sylvain Armand, Stade Rennais, 522 matches
Born on 1979
Massimo Maccarone, Empoli FC, 539 matches
Born on 1978
Gianluigi Buffon, Juventus, 612 matches
Born on 1977 or before
Mark Schwarzer, Leicester City FC, 626 matches

The U21 footballers listed below have played the highest percentage of minutes per position. Among them are notably two Schalke 04 players: Leon Goretzka and Maximilian Meyer. The latter footballer outranks his teammate Leroy Sané among attacking midfielders. The full tables are available here.

Goalkeepers

Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan), born in 1999, 68.0%

Centre backs

Niklas Süle (Hoffenheim), born in 1995, 100.0%

Full backs

Héctor Bellerín (Arsenal), born in 1995, 92.3%

Defensive midfielders

Leon Goretzka (Schalke 04), born in 1995, 82.5%

Attacking midfielders

Maximilian Meyer (Schalke 04), born in 1995, 78.8%

Forwards

Anthony Martial (Manchester United/Monaco), born in 1995, 89.6%

The biggest performance gap was measured between Real Madrid and Rome: +32%. Atlético Madrid and Bayern Munich also performed significantly better than PSV Eindhoven and Juventus: +25%, respectively +23%. Manchester City and Barcelona outperformed Dinamo Kiev and Arsenal by 11%, while the performance level of Chelsea was 10% higher than that of Paris St-Germain.

According to the analysis of the CIES Football Observatory, the matches with the most uncertain outcome will oppose Gent and Wolfsburg (+3% for the Belgian club), as well as Benfica and Zenit St-Petersburg (+6% for the Portuguese side). Data used for the present research were provided by OptaPro. Click here for more information about the approach of the CIES Football Observatory for sustainable success.

Foreign players are much more numerous in Europe (47.7% of squads) and in the MLS (48.5%) than in Asia (17.9%) and South America (13.6%). Great discrepancies also exist according to position. While foreign footballers account for 34.9% of forwards, they only represent 20.5% of goalkeepers. The relative presence of foreign players among defenders and midfielders is around 25%.

From an age perspective, foreign footballers in the leagues studied are on average older than nationals: 27.1 years compared to 25.7. While only 13.2% of U21 footballers are foreigners, the latter represent 33.8% of players over 28 years of age. Nevertheless, the average age of first migration tends to diminish in relationship with the international recruitment of a greater number of very young players.

In six European leagues surveyed, more than half of teams are made up of foreign players: England, Belgium, Italy, Turkey, Portugal and Germany. At the opposite end of the spectrum, foreign players account for less than 10% of squads in Brazil, Uruguay, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Colombia, Argentina, Paraguay, Uzbekistan and Iran.

The study also warns the wealthiest clubs against the risk of abandoning the training of local players in favour of their import. The Report reminds that “all the clubs having left their mark on modern football in Europe (Real Madrid, Ajax, Bayern Munich, Milan, Manchester United, Barcelona) and elsewhere (Boca Juniors, River Plate, Santos, Flamengo) had several home-grown pillars, whose presence made a major contribution to their legendary status”.

The Report concludes that “talented players are born all over the world. What is missing in the first instance, is not so much talents, as a favourable context for their development. So as to encourage clubs worldwide not to take the easy road and fall into the trap of recklessly importing players and selling their souls to the market actors, training must be better protected and better paid”.

In 34 cases out of 49, the gap between the fee invested to recruit a big-5 league player and his estimated transfer value was less than 2 million €. The strong correlation between fees paid and predicted (76%) confirms the accuracy of the algorithm created from the analysis of more than 1,500 paying fee transfers occurred since 2010.

Our study allows us highlighting the payment of much higher or, more rarely, lower transfer compensations than fees paid in the recent past for players with similar characteristics. The inflation in transfer costs compared to the 11 previous transfer windows was 28%.

According to our estimates, the most over-paid player was Jackson Martínez: 42 million € instead of 18.2 (+23.8 million €). Among the five most over-paid footballers are another player transferred to China, Ramires (+10.8 million €), as well as three footballers signed by English Premier League clubs: Lewis Grabban (+7.8 million €), Timm Klose (+7.5) and Andros Townsend (+7.0).

The most under-paid player was also transferred between Premier League clubs: Jonjo Shelvey. According to our analysis, while the transfer value of the young English national A-team midfielder was 30.9 million €, Newcastle was able to sign him for "only" 16 million € (-14.9). The transfers of Mario Suárez to Watford and Augusto Fernández to Atlético Madrid were also cheaper than expected.

The figures for all big-5 league footballers transferred for money in January is available in issue number 136 of the Big-5 Weekly Post. For more information about the CIES Football Observatory approach, please refer to Monthly Reports number 6 and number 7. A transfer value calculator for big-5 league players is also freely available online.

Previous research from the CIES Football Observatory suggests that sticking on a core group of footballers often allows clubs obtaining top level results. No team who heads the table in its respective league used more than 24 players. This figure is 20 for Napoli, 22 for Leicester and Bayern Munich, 23 for Paris St-Germain and 24 for Barcelona.

Conversely, frequent line-up changes tend to reflect anxiety which is detrimental to the improvement of results. So far, clubs at the bottom of the table in their respective league on average fielded 26.0 players. This figure is 22.2 for clubs heading the table, 23.6 for the top three ranked teams per league and 25.3 at big-5 league level.

The indicator of the grip on the game refers to the number and location of passes achieved compared to opponents, while that of dangerousness is the ratio between the number and quality of shots attempted and conceded. More information about the CIES Football Observatory collective key performance indicators is available in issues number five and number seven of the Monthly Report.

The average value between grip on the game and dangerousness results in a composite indicator which allows us measuring the level of dominance of teams and estimating in an objective way the number of points that a club should have obtained accordingly. The comparison between points estimated and achieved permits us highlighting the most and least efficient teams. Future will tell what is the part of luck for the most efficient teams and that of bad luck for the most inefficient ones.

The most efficient big-5 league club so far was Stoke City. With a dominance of 0.53, the Premier League team should have obtained 0.72 points per match, which is 0.78 less than it was actually the case. At second position in the big-5 and at the top of the Liga table is Villarreal. Their dominance was 0.89, which should have allowed them obtaining only 1.24 points per match instead of 2.0 (+0.76).

Issue number 133 of the Big-5 Weekly Post also presents the data for grip on the game, dangerousness and dominance of all teams. The latter indicator suggests that the favourite clubs for the European club competitions are Bayern Munich for the Champions League and Napoli for the Europa League. Manchester City is at the top of the English Premier League table ahead of Leicester and Arsenal.

Dominance ranking

1) Bayern Munich 4.02
2) Naples 3.06
3) Paris St-Germain 2.14
4) Manchester City 2.11
5) Dortmund 2.10
6) Barcelona 2.00
7) Fiorentina 1.89
8) Real Madrid 1.87
9) Juventus 1.68
10) Atlético Madrid 1.66
11) Leicester 1.64
12) Arsenal 1.59

The average age on the pitch recorded for England during matches played in 2015 was 25.6 years. In Europe, only the Netherlands fielded footballers as young as the English ones. The youthfulness of the players available to Roy Hodgson is the sign of a renaissance which prefigures a promising future. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Scotland fielded the most seasoned footballers: 29.0 years on average.

The analysis on height shows that the average full international is 181.9cm. Great discrepancies exist between national teams. The average height on the pitch of the country who fielded the tallest players, Serbia, was 10cm greater than that of the country who played with the shortest footballers, Chile: 185.6 compared to 175.6cm. However, the short stature of the Chileans did not stop them winning the Copa América.

With regard to clubs employing internationals of the most competitive nations, the study shows the great concentration of talent in the wealthiest leagues. Almost one minute out of two was played by big-5 league footballers. In total, 68.9% of minutes were played by footballers under contract with foreign clubs. England is the only squad who did not field footballers playing abroad.

Finally, the Report highlights that 11.3% of national A-team footballers were born outside of the association represented. Two countries heavily relied on players born abroad: Algeria and Albania. Algeria fielded 21 players born in France, while 17 foreign-born footballers played for Albania. In the global era, the disjuncture between the country of birth and that represented will probably strengthen in the years to come.

Find out the other CIES Football Observatory Monthly Reports here.

During this season, footballers with national A-team caps in 2015 played 90% of domestic league minutes at Real Madrid. This figure is above 80 % for five other big-5 league clubs, four English Premier League teams (Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham), as well as Juventus. The only big-5 league team who did not field players with national A-team caps in 2015 is the Italian side Carpi.

The average percentage of minutes by active internationals per league varies between 58% in the English Premier League and 24% in the Spanish Liga. The figures for the three remaining big-5 leagues are 40% in the German Bundesliga, 31% in the Italian Serie A and 29% in the French Ligue 1. The overall percentage at big-5 league level is 36%.

Tomorrow, the CIES Football Observatory will publish the first Monthly Report of the year 2016 focusing on the squad profile of the best performing national A-teams.

The valuation is based on an econometric model created by the CIES Football Observatory research team from the analysis of over 1,500 paying fee transfers occurred since 2010. The criteria taken into account refer to both the performance and personal characteristics of players (age, position, contract duration, etc.), as well as to the competition level and results of their employer club and national team represented (if any).

More information on the indicators included in the algorithm is available in the sixth edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. Moreover, a player value calculator is freely available online here. It is based on a less sophisticated algorithm including only data accessible to the general public. Although less precise than the statistical model used for these estimates, its predictive power is also high.

The estimated transfer value of Lionel Messi, 251 million €, is 17 million € below that of last June. This is mainly due to the fact that the Argentinean prodigy, who will turn 29 next June, has entered the final phase of his career. Despite outstanding performance levels and transfer cost inflation, his value probably already reached a peak.

Contrary to Messi’s transfer value, that of Neymar has heavily increased since June 2015: from 94 to 153 million €. In 2015, the 23-year-old Brazilian scored 25 goals in 34 appearances in the Spanish Liga, as well as 9 goals in 12 matches at Champions League level. A further increase in Neymar’s transfer value will depend on the outcome of negotiations concerning his contract at Barcelona, which currently runs until 2018.

The third highest transfer value recorded was for Eden Hazard. As for Messi, the value of the Belgian star decreased since June 2015: from 142 to 130 million €. This is mainly due to the poor performances of Chelsea during the first semester of the current season. Hazard himself did not perform at his best. However, the attacking midfielder, recently also fielded as a forward, is still a sure value of world football.

In fourth position is Cristiano Ronaldo. The transfer value of the Portuguese went also slightly down since last June: from 119 to “only” 114 million €. This is mainly due to the age factor: Real Madrid’s striker is set to turn 31 next February. With Santi Cazorla, Ronaldo is the only player aged 30 or over in the top 100 positions of the ranking. This reflects his outstanding talent and performances.

The fifth most valuable player is Harry Kane: 91 million €. This is 35 million € more than in June 2015. During the first months of the current season, the 22 year-old-striker confirmed his extraordinary skills. Moreover, the good results achieved by his employer club, Tottenham, contributed to increase his value. With the same performances on an individual level and Champions League qualification, Kane’s value will probably reach the 100-million € mark at the end of the season.

From sixth to tenth position are other top class attacking players: Raheem Sterling, Antoine Griezmann, Luis Suárez, Sergio Agüero and Alexis Sánchez. The transfer values of Anthony Martial, Paul Pogba, Kevin de Bruyne, Philippe Coutinho and Thomas Müller are also above 70 million €, while those of Robert Lewandowski, Gareth Bale and Romelu Lukaku are just below.

The top 100 list is freely available on the CIES Football Observatory’s website. The data on the 30 most valuable big-5 league club teenagers is available on request at football.observatory@cies.ch.

The analysis of the CIES Football Observatory is 100% data-driven from statistics provided by OptaPro. It takes into account the technical performance of players at big-5 league level since January 1st 2015 in six key areas of the game. More explanations are available in issue number 5 of the Monthly Report. From a broader perspective, the 7th Report presents the exclusive CIES Football Observatory approach for sustainable success.

Outfield players are divided into six positions: centre backs, full backs, defence-oriented central midfielders, attack-oriented central midfielders, attacking midfielders and forwards. Only footballers who played at least 2,250 minutes, equivalent to 25 full big-5 league matches, were included in the rankings.

On the basis of our analysis, the CIES Football Observatory dream team (4-2-3-1) is composed as follows: Neuer; D. Alves, T. Silva, Chiellini, Monreal; Gündogan, Cazorla; Özil, de Bruyne, Hazard; Messi. The dream team for U23 players, born after 1st January 1993, is composed as such: Karius; Bellerín, Umiti, Varane, Wendell; Tolisso, Pogba; B. Silva, Barkley, F. Anderson; Dybala.

Despite top level performances, several players do not appear in the tables as they were not fielded for at least 2,250 minutes in big-5 league games in 2015. This is notably the case of Z. Ibrahimovi?, M. Salah and S. Agüero among forwards; D. Silva, J. Navas and D. Perotti among attacking midfielders; M. Verratti, Y. Touré and A. Ramsey among central midfielders; L. Kurzawa, A. Kolarov and J. Alba among full backs; as well as D. Luiz, J. Boateng and D. Alaba among centre backs.

For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

Seven out of the 10 top ranked clubs qualified for the Champions League knockout stage. The only exceptions are Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Inter Milan. The last two clubs did not even participate in the competition. However, the Italian side is currently at the top of the Serie A table.

Real Madrid is the team with the most footballers with national A-team caps in 2015: 19 players. At second position is Manchester United (18). Louis van Gaal’s team outranks Chelsea, Tottenham and Juventus (17 players each). In total, Manchester United players represented 10 national selections. Sergio Romero played more games for Argentina (13) than for Manchester United (4).

List of players

• Sergio Romero, 13 matches for Argentina
• Marcos Rojo, 11 matches for Argentina
• M. Darmian, 10 matches for Italy
• Daley Blind, 9 matches for the Netherlands
• Wayne Rooney, 8 matches for England
• Morgan Schneiderlin, 8 matches for France
• Memphis Depay, 8 matches for the Netherlands
• Phil Jones, 7 matches for England
• Bastian Schweinsteiger, 6 matches for Germany
• Chris Smalling, 6 matches for England
• Anthony Martial, 6 matches for France
• Marouane Fellaini, 6 matches for Belgium
• Patrick McNair, 5 matches for Northern Ireland
• Antonio Valencia, 4 matches for Ecuador
• Juan Mata, 4 matches for Spain
• David De Gea, 4 matches for Spain
• Michael Carrick, 3 matches for England
• Luke Shaw, 2 matches for England