Assessment of the big-5 league predictions
U21 players: Premier League at the bottom of the table
The clubs per league having the most relied on U21 players are Monaco (34.6%), Valencia (25.5%), Empoli (23.3%), Bayer Leverkusen (23.1%) and Liverpool (19.8%). Conversely, U21 footballers played less than 2% of minutes in 27 teams out of 98, including at Champions League finalists Barcelona and Juventus.
All the data is available in issue number 113 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
Performance analysis : best clubs and players of the season
For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
The power of youth: age of first-team inclusion
Best performing U23 players: Phil Jones & Co
At the head of the tables per position are Phil Jones (Manchester United) for centre backs, Layvin Kurzawa (Monaco) for full backs, Marco Verratti (Paris St-Germain) for defensive midfielders, Isco Alarcón (Real Madrid) for attacking midfielders and Felipe Anderson (Lazio) for forwards.
In the top-3 positions of the rankings are not only well known players such as Raphaël Varane (Real Madrid), David Alaba (Bayern Munich) or Paul Pogba (Juventus), but also less renowned talents such as José Giménez (Atlético Madrid), Ricardo Rodríguez (Wolfsburg), Granit Xhaka (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Bernardo Silva (Monaco) and Clinton N’Jie (Lyon).
The rankings are based on the CIES Football Observatory exclusive Key performance indicators in the following areas of the game:
- Shooting: ability to take advantage of goal opportunities through accurate shooting.
- Chance creation: ability to put teammates in a favourable position to strike.
- Take on: ability to create dangerous situations by successfully challenging opponents.
- Distribution: ability to keep a hold on the game through efficient passing.
- Recovery: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through proficient interception work.
- Rigour: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through robust duelling.
Competitive balance: best teams more dominant than ever
Teams of the moment: Borussia Dortmund tops the table
New Monthly Report: who will win the Champions League?
Player development: the big-5 leagues in a dependant situation
Players of the moment: Messi top, Ronaldo down
Big-5 Weekly Post on full internationals
New Monthly Report: transfer expenditure and results
The evolution noted for the five major European leagues since 2009/10 reflects a strong increase in the sums invested in transfer fees. While the 98 big-5 league teams spent €6.9 billion to recruit players present in their squad in 2009/10 (€70.4 million per club), this figure increased to €8.6 billion in 2014/15 (€87.7 million per club). In six seasons, the average “cost” of a squad from a transfer expenditure perspective increased by 24.5%.
Between 2009 and 2014, the fees invested in signing squad members increased particularly in the English Premier League: €2.43 to €3.43 billion (€171 million per club). The amount spent by Premier League clubs in comparison with the total for the big-5 leagues went from 35% in 2009/10 to 40% in 2014/15. The explosion of revenues from the sale of TV-rights for the period 2016-2019 will undoubtedly reinforce this process.
The minimum threshold of investments in transfer fees above which it is reasonable to expect a podium finish has strongly increased. At big-5 level, the clubs having ranked in the top three places in the 2009/10 season spent on average €189 million in signing squad members. This figure has never been as high as in the current season: €278 million (+47%). Issue number 103 of the CIES Football Observatory Big-Weekly Post also presents the data by position.
The analysis of the recipients of sums invested by big-5 league clubs in signing squad members shows that the redistributive power of the transfer market is limited. Between 2009/10 and 2014/15, 67% of transfer fees were paid out to other teams participating in the five major European championships. A record figure was incidentally measured for the last two transfer windows: 70.5%.
With a view to equality and a wish to improve competitive balance, it would be therefore useful to consider what reforms are necessary to the transfer system so as to promote solidarity. An efficient measure would be to entitle each team in which a player has passed through to a compensation for each fee paying transfer taking place over the course of the player’s professional career on a pro rata basis to the number of official matches played at the club.
We kindly invite you to read the Report to know more about this proposal.
Most profitable youth academies: Southampton tops the table
At league level, current French Ligue 1 clubs generated the most transfer fees for youth academy players (292 million €). At the bottom end of the table is Italian Serie A. This finding reflects the low level of club-trained players in Italian top division clubs (see here).
Fees received by Southampton for the transfer of Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw and Calum Chambers represent almost 40% of the total incomes of current Premier League clubs for the transfer of club-trained footballers during the last three seasons.
Southampton is an outstanding example of how youth training can constitute a key competitive advantage both sportingly and economically even in the richest league of the world.
Luis Suárez among the best signings of the season
At the head of the other rankings are Dejan Lovren (Liverpool) for rigour, Walter Gargano (Napoli) for recovery, Xabi Alonso (Bayern Munich) for distribution, Karim Bellarabi (Bayer Leverkusen) for take on and Diego Costa (Chelsea) for shooting.
The following big-5 league rookies are to be found in the top 12 positions for five out of the six areas of play taken into account:
Rigour
- Michael Keane (Burnley)
- Sergi Gómez (Celta de Vigo)
- Emiliano Velázquez (Getafe)
- Jin-Su Kim (Hoffenheim)
- Nicolás Otamendi (Valencia)
- Giancarlo González (Palermo)
- Marcos Rojo (Manchester United)
Recovery
- Wendell Nascimento (Bayer Leverkusen)
- Yeltsin Tejeda (Evian)
- Daley Blind (Manchester United)
Take on
- Sadio Mané (Southampton)
- Lucas Vázquez (Espanyol)
Chance creation
- Valentin Stocker (Hertha Berlin)
- Dušan Tadi? (Southampton)
Shooting
- Luciano Vietto (Villarreal)
- Federico Piovaccari (Eibar)
- Diafra Sakho (West Ham)
Please refer to this paper if you want to know more about the exclusive approach of the CIES Football Observatory for sustainable success.
Ajax tops the European list of the most training orientated clubs
At the head of the table is Ajax Amsterdam. The Dutch team has trained 77 players employed by the 468 teams of the 31 leagues included in the analysis. At second and third place are Partizan Belgrade (74 players) and Barcelona (57). This data confirms the outstanding know-how of these clubs in the training of youth players.
France is the most represented national association in the top 100 positions of the table: 15 clubs. This is seven more than the second and third most represented countries: Spain and the Netherlands. Conversely, there are no Turkish, Cypriot, Romanian and Norwegian teams in the top 100.
If you want to know more about the European football players’ labour market, you are kindly invited to consult our online Digital Atlas. Thank you for your interest!
CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report: tomorrow’s stars
Thanks to this analysis we are able to highlight not only well-known players such as Luke Shaw, Raheem Sterling, Romelu Lukaku or Thibaut Courtois, but also footballers not yet taking part in the big-5 leagues but of whom we will surely hear much about in the future such as, among others, Tonny Vilhena, Jetro Willems, Pione Sisto or Georgi Milanov.
The notion of experience capital refers to games played in adult championships up until 23 years of age. We attribute different values to matches according to an exclusive classification method that takes into account the performance of national association representatives in European club competitions, the division of the employer club in the domestic league and results achieved for matches played.
The method of experience capital allows clubs to optimise their approach regarding transfers by considerably reducing the risks inherent in such operations, from both the sporting and economic point of view. Our research team is at the service of clubs interested in finding out more about the practical modalities of implementing a talent spotting system of this kind.
The report also emphasises the crucial role of leagues outside the big-5 in the career development of players. Among footballers aged 23 or over currently under contract with big-5 league clubs, only 12% have always played in teams taking part in the top European championships between the start of the professional career and their 23rd birthday.
Issue number 99 of the Big-5 Weekly Post presents the highest capital experience values for U20, U21, U22 and U23 players for both the five major European championships and the remaining 26 leagues surveyed.
CIES Football Observatory exclusive transfer analysis
Buy-out clauses or options to buy existed for the five most over-paid players. This certainly helped the seller teams in the negotiations: Villarreal for Gabriel Paulista, Swansea for Wilfried Bony and Fiorentina for Juan Cuadrado.
The top level performances of Bernardo Silva and Ryan Bertrand explain the activation of the option to buy by Monaco, respectively Southampton. However, the current value of these players is well below the price paid.
Monaco and Southampton accepted to over-pay by considering the opportunities of development for the players concerned. This holds also true for Arsenal with regard to the signing of Gabriel Paulista. The three players have indeed the concrete possibility to become pillars of their national A-teams in the near future.
The cases of Wilfried Bony and Juan Cuadrado are different as they are already well established full internationals. They were primarily recruited within the context of the race for the Premier League title.
While Chelsea was also able to transfer other players – André Schürrle and Ryan Bertrand – at a higher price than expected, Manchester City was not able to do so. Chelsea could probably have got more from the permanent move of Fernando Torres. Nevertheless, his permanent move allowed the London club to save money for his salary.
The over-representation of deals between Italian clubs among the most under-paid transfers – Manolo Gabbiadini, Alfred Duncan, Daniele Gastaldello, Luca Antonelli and Gabriel Paletta – reflects the deep economic crisis of professional football in the country.
Fore more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch
Best performing U23 players: from Gímenez to Neymar
At the top of the rankings per area of the game are José Gímenez (Atlético Madrid) for rigour, Layvin Kurzawa (Monaco) for recovery, Marco Verratti (Paris St-Germain) for distribution, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal) for take on, Isco Alarcón (Real Madrid) for chance creation and Neymar Júnior (Barcelona) for shooting.
Only two players are in the top 12 positions in three different rankings: Paulo Dybala (Palermo) for take on, chance creation and shooting, as well as Paul Pogba (Juventus) for distribution, take on and shooting. The following players are in the top 12 in two areas of the game:
- José Gímenez (Atlético Madrid)
- Marquinhos Aoás (Paris St-Germain)
- Phil Jones (Manchester United)
- Layvin Kurzawa (Monaco)
- Marc Stendera (Eintracht Frankfurt)
- Marco Verratti (Paris St-Germain)
- Lucas Moura (Paris St-Germain)
- Isco Alarcón (Real Madrid)
- Koke Resurreción (Atlético Madrid)
- Raheem Sterling (Liverpool)
- Nabil Fekir (Olympique Lyonnais)
- Paul-Georges Ntep (Stade Rennais)
- Neymar Júnior (Barcelona)
The full tables are to be found here. More information is available at football.observatory@cies.ch
CIES Football Observatory Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
- Shooting: ability to take advantage of goal opportunities through accurate shooting
- Chance creation: ability to put teammates in a good position to score
- Take on: ability to create dangerous situations by successfully challenging opponents
- Distribution: ability to keep a hold on the game through efficient passing
- Recovery: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through proficient interception work
- Rigour: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through robust duelling
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