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Football fans ask for more transparency

The survey conducted by the CIES Football Observatory to celebrate its 15th birthday has allowed us to collect extremely interesting data on the perception of fans on professional football. A clear majority of the 2,061 respondents considers that the level of transparency around transfers is not sufficient. Football enthusiasts are also of the opinion that not enough teams are winning trophies. The full study is available in the 61st edition of the Monthly Report.

Almost nine participants out of ten also believe that football agents earn too much money. From this perspective, the cap on commissions decided by FIFA has the fans’ approval. More generally, any initiative aimed at rendering transfer operations less opaque would be very welcome. In this respect, the obligation to communicate the financial details of player transactions would be a very good step forward.

Almost four fans out of five think that the competitive balance in domestic leagues is not sufficient. However, only less than one third consider that the number of national championship matches is too high. From a political point of view, in particular in the European context with the supposed possible creation of a continental super league, this finding can be interpreted as a standing by football enthusiasts in favour of domestic leagues.

Among the various other interesting results, the vast majority of fans is also of the opinion that the costs involved in viewing matches, whether at the stadium or via television, are too high. From a fan retention perspective, this situation is problematic. It is a major challenge to the future popularity of football, especially concerning the new generations, who are already used to have free access to the e-sport spectacle.

To end on a positive note, almost seven out of ten participants in the questionnaire think that there is not too much match fixing, nor doping, in professional football. Regarding these two aspects, the confidence of the fans in the beautiful game remains intact. With respect to many other issues, however, many reforms should be carried out to maintain fan support, improving the image of the game and stimulating the positive effects of football on the society.

No fans in stadiums: Atlético Madrid does not care

Empty stadiums impact teams very differently. Despite the lack of supporters due to the pandemic, Atlético Madrid recorded the highest proportion of home wins among teams in the five major European leagues: 13 out of 15 including yesterday night’s fixture against Valencia (86.7%). The data for teams in 66 top divisions worldwide are available in issue number 322 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

Two teams out of all those having played at least 10 domestic league matches at home since April 1st 2020 have won all these games: Norwegian champions Bodø/Glimt (15 out 15) and the Scottish Premiership leaders Rangers (12). Conversely, ten clubs did not win a single home fixture since the pandemic: Deportivo Municipal (PER), Vegalta Sendai (JPN), RoPS (FIN), Dalian Pro (CHN), Zob Ahan (IRN), FC Köln (GER), Dijon (FRA), Lyngby (DEN), Al-Yarmouk SC (KUW) and Al Ittihad (EGY).

At the level of these 66 leagues, the percentage of home wins has decreased from 45.1% between January 1st 2019 and March 31st 2020 to 42.0% between April 1st 2020 and January 18th 2021. Generally speaking, this finding shows that the lack of fans negatively impacted teams playing at home. Nevertheless, the latter still are at an advantage as they continue to win 1.32 more games than clubs visiting them.

Player turnover: Aston Villa and the Premier League stand out

Issue number 321 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 72 domestic leagues worldwide according to the percentage of minutes played by the 11 most fielded footballers. The highest figures for the five major European championships were measured for two English Premier League teams who performed beyond expectations since the start of the season: Aston Villa (87%) and Southampton (85%).

At the opposite end, Paris St-Germain stand out with only 58% of minutes by the 11 most fielded footballers, the lowest figure in the big-5. Per league, the highest and lowest values were observed for Aston Villa (87%) and Newcastle (68%) in the Premier League, Elche (81%) and Real Valladolid (62%) in the Liga, Cagliari (79%) and Genoa (59%) in the Serie A, Freiburg (82%) and Schalke 04 (61%) in the Bundesliga, as well as Olympique de Marseille (78%) and Paris St-Germain (58%) in the Ligue 1.

For the remaining big teams still competing in the Champions League, the 11 most used footballers were fielded for 78% at Liverpool, 75% at Real Madrid, 73% at both Manchester City and Bayern Munich, 71% at Barcelona and 68% at Juventus. Interestingly, despite the depth of squads and the tight match schedule, the English Premier League is the 14th competition among the 72 studied whose clubs carry out the lowest player turnover, well ahead of the four other leagues of the big-5.

Most dribble-oriented teams: from PSG to Burnley

Issue number 320 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from the five major European leagues according to the frequency of dribbles attempted by their players. Paris St-Germain tops the table with a dribble attempted every 3’58’’, while Burnley FC is at the bottom of the rankings with a dribble attempt every 8’46’’.

Many teams with very talented players figure in the top 10 positions, such as Olympique Lyonnais (2nd), Barcelona (4th), Manchester City (6th) and Borussia Dortmund (9th). Fulham is the most dribble-oriented team in the English Premier League (3rd overall), while Cagliari (15th) top the rankings for the Italian Serie A.

The least dribble-oriented teams for each of the big-5 leagues are Burnley FC in the Premier League, Osasuna in the Liga, Union Berlin in Germany, Benevento in Italy and RC Strasbourg in Ligue 1. The frequency of dribble attempts per league vary between 2’33’’ in the French Ligue 1 and 2’59’’ in the Spanish Liga. The success rate at club level ranges between 70.6% for Wolfsburg (just ahead Aston Villa, 69.4%) and 48.4% for Werder Bremen.

Biannual transfer value list: Rashford takes first place

Issue number 319 of the Weekly Post presents the traditional biannual list of the big-5 league players with the greatest transfer values according to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The top estimated value was calculated for the 23-year-old Manchester United forward Marcus Rashford: €165 M. With only 18 months of contract remaining, the former leader Kylian Mbappé falls back to fifth place.

The 20-year-old Norwegian prolific striker Erling Haaland ranks second with an estimated transfer value of €152M. The 22-year-old English full international Trent Alexander-Arnold completes the podium. The Liverpool’s full back is the most expensive defender ahead of Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies (€139M) and Manchester City’s Rúben Dias (€127M). The top estimated values for midfielders and goalkeepers were recorded for Bruno Fernandes (€151 M) and Ederson Moraes (€80M).

With only six months of contract remaining, Lionel Messi just makes the top 100 list: 97th with an estimated value of €54M. Despite his excellent performances, 35-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo (€47M) is only 131st. This is mainly due to his age and the relatively short duration of his contract with Juventus (until June 2022). The transfer value intervals for all big-5 league players are available for free on the CIES Football Observatory website.

Professional football survey: reminder

Dear football/soccer enthusiast,

the CIES Football Observatory wishes you a happy end of the year 2020 and an excellent 2021, hopefully with the possibility of attending more matches in the stadiums.

We also kindly invite you to take about 5 minutes of your time to answer this anonymous questionnaire about the fans’ opinion on professional football. Warmest thanks to all those who already answered. Your answers will be analysed and made available in the January’s 2021 Monthly Report.

Sincerely yours

On behalf of the CIES Football Observatory, its head

Dr. Raffaele Poli

Indestructible rankings: most fielded players in 2020

No professional footballer has played as many minutes in official matches in the calendar year 2020 as Manchester United’s centre back Harry Maguire. Up until December 17th, the English international was fielded during 4’745 minutes (53 matches). The top 100s for both goalkeepers and outfield players are available in issue number 318 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

For outfield players, Maguire ranks ahead of Manchester City’s Rúben Dias and the Barcelona superstar Lionel Messi. Other well-known footballers are high in the rankings such as Bruno Fernandes, Romelu Lukaku and Raphaël Varane. If we consider the number of matches played, the Danish full international Christian Eriksen tops the table with 54 games. However, in terms of minutes, the Inter player is not even in the first 1,000 ranks. On average, he played just over a half time per match.

With regard to goalkeepers, at the head of the table is Marcelo Lomba from SC Internacional: 4’740 minutes in 52 official matches. The Brazilians are over-represented in the top positions of the rankings. Four goalkeepers playing for European clubs are in the top 10: Lukáš Hrádecký (Bayer Leverkusen and Finnish national team), Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan AC and Italy), Jan Oblak (Atlético Madrid and Slovenia), as well as Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich and Germany).

Best performing U21 players in 30 European leagues

Data is more than ever a must when it comes to scouting. The CIES Football Observatory has developed a unique methodology to assess the performance of players on an objective basis. Using the data from InStat, issue number 317 of the Weekly Post presents the 10 best performing footballers born in the 2000s for each of the six areas of the game covered in our approach. Only players fielded for at least 450 domestic league minutes up until December 7th are included in the rankings.

Nathan Collins (Stoke City) stands out when it comes to rigour (duels). He should soon receive his first call for the Irish senior national team. At the top for recovery, Mohamed Camara (RB Salzburg) is following on the footsteps of other top footballers trained in the academies ran according to the precepts of the French maestro Jean-Marc Guillou. Born in 2002, Ryan Gravenberch (Ajax) heads the distribution table, while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Rubin Kazan) has the top score for take on.

Dominik Szoboszlai (RB Salzburg) and the 2002-born striker Noni Madueke (PSV Eindhoven) are at the top for chance creation and, respectively, shooting. The 60th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report details the basic principles of the statistical approach developed and presents the top 10 overall rankings in the different areas of the game taken into account for each of the 35 leagues examined.

Help us to make the fans’ opinion heard

Dear football/soccer enthusiast,

the CIES Football Observatory academic team kindly invites you to take a little time to answer this anonymous questionnaire about the fans’ opinion on professional football.

Your answers will be analysed and made available in the January’s 2021 Monthly Report. Through your participation, you help us making known the fans’ point of view.

Click here to answer

Many thanks!

Talent scouting most focused clubs: CSKA and Real show the way

Issue number 316 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares clubs from 31 top divisions of UEFA member associations according to the average age at which they recruited their current players (not including footballers from the youth academy). CSKA Moscow made the earliest recruitment (21.1 years), ahead of FC DAC 1904 (21.7) and SC Heerenveen (22.1).

Real Madrid is the big-5 league club most focused on signing young talents. Their current squad members were on average recruited at the age of 22.2 years. This value is particularly low also for RB Leipzig (22.3) and OGC Nice (22.5). European champions Bayern Munich are in the 30th position of teams having signed the youngest footballers (23.4). Tottenham Hotspur (23.9) and AC Milan (24.3) top the rankings in Italy and England.

At the opposite end of the table is Gençlerbirli?i SK with an average age of recruitment of 29.0 years, followed by Anorthosis FC and BB Erzurumspor. At the level of the big-5 leagues, the teams least focused on the signing of young players are Benevento in the Serie A (28.1 years), Elche CF in the Liga (27.8), West Bromwich Albion in the Premier League (26.5), Montpellier HSC in the Ligue 1 (26.1) and Union Berlin in the Bundesliga (26.0).

Haaland and Reyna transfer values skyrocket

Issue number 315 of the Weekly Post highlights the big-5 league players whose transfer value has increased the most in November according to the CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The Norwegian prodigy Erling Haaland tops the table for footballers with a transfer valuation of more than €80M: €155M compared to €120M at the end of October (+€35M).

If the reported €75M release clause valid from 2022 really exists, Borussia Dortmund will be certainly tempted to transfer him at a much higher price at the end of the current season. If Erling Haaland continues to score so many goals and perform at such a great level, once the COVID-19 pandemic is over, he could break the €222M transfer fee record currently held by Neymar.

The top increases in November for the other price ranges considered were measured for Giovanni Reyna (+€34M) for players with an estimated value between €40 and €80M, Florian Wirtz (+€16M) for the €20 to €40M category, Nicólas González (+€7M) for footballers valued between €10M and €20 M and Yunus Musah (+€4.5M) for players whose current transfer value is still below €10M. The updated estimated value ranges for all big-5 league players is available here.

Football’s major migration routes revealed

Issue number 314 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the ten most represented foreign origins in 126 professional leagues worldwide. The Brazilians represent the biggest contingent of expatriates in 23 championships, followed by the Argentineans (15) and the French (13). The Atlas of migration displays more exclusive data on international transfer networks.

Players who grew up in France notably are the main expatriate workforce in the English Premier League (47 players), the German Bundesliga (36), the Italian Serie A (35) and the Spanish Liga (30). The French represent the most represented foreign origin in eight other associations: Belgium (both 1st and 2nd division), Bulgaria, Turkey, Switzerland, Romania, Qatar, Algeria and Luxembourg.

The most frequented migration route connects Brazil to Portugal: 141 Brazilians play in the top Portuguese division and 106 in the second one. The three other major migratory channels connect neighbouring leagues, with the bigger nation providing workforce to the smaller: from England to the top Welsh division (100 players), from France to Luxembourg (93), as well as from England to the Scottish Premiership (90).

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