Contract policy: Spanish giants head the table
Barcelona and Real Madrid top the rankings for the longest average contract duration of first team squad members. Six out of the eight top ranked clubs are still competing in European Cups. This illustrates the relationships between long-term planning and success. The 222nd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the data for all big-5 league teams.
On average, a Barcelona first team squad member has 3.23 years of contract remaining. This figure is 3.59 for the 11 players who have been fielded the most in domestic league games so far this year. The longest average contract durations for the other big-5 leagues were measured for Tottenham , LOSC Lille, RB Leipzig and AS Rome.
At the opposite end of the table, the lowest figure overall was observed for the French side Amiens (0.99 years). In three clubs only, the average contract duration of the 11 most fielded players is below one year: Crotone, Benevento and Strasbourg. All the teams at the bottom of the rankings are confronted with the difficulty of renovating their squads without losing competitiveness.
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Competitive balance: general decline in Europe
Issue number 221 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the percentage of matches with a gap of three or more goals in 29 European competitions. The highest figure so far this season was observed for the Champions League: 29% (+8% compared to the same moment during last season). This percentage is twice as high as at Europa League level: 16% (+3%).
The English Premier League had so far the third highest proportion of very uneven matches among the competitions surveyed: 22% (+4%). At the opposite end of the table, the German Bundesliga is by far the big-5 European league with the lowest percentage of games with a three or more goal gap: 11% (-6%). The lowest proportion overall was measured in Russia: 10% (-4%).
The percentage of imbalanced fixtures increased in 20 out of the 29 competitions analysed. Overall, the average goal gap per match increased from 1.37 to 1.40. The highest figure for this indicator was also recorded at Champions League level: 1.87 from 1.55 last season (+21%). This analysis reveals the general trend towards competitive unbalance in European football.
Best big-5 league players for the last three months
The 220th issue of the Weekly Post presents players from the big-5 who performed the best in domestic league matches during the last three months. Footballers are ranked according to the exclusive approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory to measure the technical performance of players. Only footballers who played at least 45 minutes in eight championship matches are included in the rankings.
The CIES Football methodology takes into account the performance of players in six different areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting. In addition, the results obtained by the clubs of employment for matches in which players were fielded for at least 45 minutes were also taken into consideration as a weighting factor.
The following players head the table in their respective position: Hugo Lloris (goalkeepers), Kalidou Koulibaly (centre backs), Mário Rui (full backs), Toni Kroos (defensive midfielders), Christian Eriksen (box-to-box midfielders), Lionel Messi (wingers) and Cristiano Ronaldo (forwards). This widget allows users accessing the rankings for different periods.
Top potential transfer benefits: Kane ahead of Messi
The CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post number 219 presents the 50 big-5 league players with the most positive gap between their current transfer value and the fee paid for them by their employer club. The greatest potential added value could be achieved by Tottenham Hotspur with Harry Kane: €198 million.
Another player trained by his club of employment ranks second: Lionel Messi. However, given Messi’s age, the potential profit for Barcelona will progressively reduce. Dele Alli is third with a potential added value of €164 million. The possible benefit for Atlético Madrid regarding Antoine Griezmann does not take into account the €100 million buy-out clause negotiated by the Frenchman during his last contract extension.
The estimated values are calculated using an exclusive algorithm conceived by the CIES Football Observatory research team. An increasing number of professional clubs and football intermediaries have recourse to the approach developed for transfer negotiations and litigation. The estimations for all big-5 league players are available here.
New Monthly Report: youth training helps team to win
The 33rd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents a comparative analysis of the presence of club-trained players in 31 European top divisions between 2009 and 2017. It notably reveals that footballers having been for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21 in their club of employment accounted for almost one quarter of champion winning team squads, compared to only about one fifth for all clubs surveyed.
The ability to develop footballers for the first team squad contributes to the competitive advantage held by the most successful clubs. However, this finding is partially related to the current club-trained player definition. Indeed, after three years, a player recruited up until the age of 18 can still be considered as a club-trained footballer for the team that signed him. This encourages top European teams to lure the best talents initially trained by less competitive clubs.
A change in the definition of club-trained or association-trained players would be useful to ensure a sounder development of the European game. Lowering the relevant age range from 15 to 21 years to 12 to 17 years would be helpful in limiting the increasing speculation around the transfer of minors. Indeed, according to FIFA rules, communitarian players can only move abroad after their 16th birthday. This would de facto disallow recruiting teams or associations to acquire a training status for players imported as minors.
While having a well performing youth academy does not lead directly to success, the report shows that it is a relevant indicator of the club’s ability to look to the future. The existence of a powerful youth setting is also a good indicator of the club’s strength as a territorially embedded organisation. Beyond short-term results, investing in youth training can be considered a gauge for the sustainable development of the club as an institution.
Transfer value trends: highest increase for Salah
Issue number 218 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights big-5 league players whose transfer value has increased the most during the last six months. Only footballers who did not change team or extend their contract are included in the rankings. In the top positions are three English Premier League players: Mohammed Salah (+€74.7M), Ederson Moraes (+€74.4M) and Leroy Sané (+€63.0M).
The strongest increases for players from the four other major European chmpionships were recorded for Kylian Mbappé (+€54.7M) in the French Ligue 1, Paulinho Bezerra (+€42.4) in the Spanish Liga, Sergej Milinkovi?-Savi? (+€40.7M) in the Italian Serie A and Dayot Upamecano (+€35.6M) in the German Bundesliga.
Transfer value estimates are based on the exclusive algorithm developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. Current figures for all of the big-5 league footballers can be accessed here. This unique widget presents the trends since last summer. For more information and analysis, you can follow us on Twitter.
Most dominant teams in Europe: Porto at the top
The CIES Football Observatory has partnered with the leading football data company InStat to analyse the performance of teams across Europe. Issue number 217 of the Weekly Post lists the 100 clubs from 31 competitions with the best ratios between shots taken and conceded from the box during the current domestic league season. Porto ranks first ahead of Ludogorets and Crvena Zvezda.
Porto attempted 3.79 more shots from the opponents’ box than those conceded from its own box. The best ratios in the five major European leagues were measured for Napoli (2.93), Manchester City (2.87), Paris St-Germain (2.73), Bayern Munich (2.47) and Liverpool (2.23). Surprisingly, Real Madrid (2.10) outranks Barcelona (1.82). This finding suggests that Zidane’s side was particularly unlucky at domestic league level so far this season.
The top 50 lists of the best performing clubs from 35 European leagues for defence, possession and attack are available on the CIES Football Observatory website. For more information about InStat data and additional analysis requests, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
Best dribblers: Hazard ahead of Neymar and Messi
Issue number 216 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post uses OptaPro data to analyse the dribbling skills of big-5 league players. The dribbling index is calculated by multiplying the average number of dribbles achieved per 90 minutes with the percentage of successful ones. This allows us to take into account both the quantity and quality of dribbles. Three players clearly distinguish themselves in this area: Eden Hazard, Neymar and Lionel Messi.
While Neymar won so far a higher number of contests per 90 domestic league minutes, Hazard achieved a greater percentage of dribbles attempted: 75% compared to 62%. Messi’s success rate is also 62%. The highest percentages of successful dribbles among players figuring in the top 100 were measured for central midfielders: Mousa Dembélé, Mario Lemina, Julian Draxler, etc. This finding reflects the more defensive location of their dribbles.
Players trained in France are over-represented at the top of the table: nine in the first 15 positions. This reveals the excellence of the French training system and its ability to promote skilful players. The best ranked footballers trained in the other countries hosting the five major European leagues are Isco (16th), Zaha and Loftus-Cheek (19th), Draxler (19th) and D’Alessandro (38th). The technical profile of all big-5 league players is available here.
Most promising prospects: the CIES Football Observatory top 50 list
The CIES Football Observatory has analysed the domestic league experience cumulated during the last two years by U20 players from 22 European competitions to identify those with the best career prospects. Minutes played by each footballer were weighted according to the sporting level of leagues and the results achieved by employer clubs. Weekly Post number 215 presents the 50 players with the highest experience capital scores.
The five-star prospect category includes ten players who should be able to establish themselves in the very best European teams. In the top three positions are Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alban Lafont and Kylian Mbappé. Eighteen footballers make up the four-star category list. All of these players have a concrete possibility to spend the big part of their career in the most competitive European championships. Three-star prospects also are in a favourable position to stay or reach the highest levels of the football pyramid.
The capital experience methodology exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team allows market actors to compare talents across leagues on an objective basis. This is particularly useful from a scouting perspective. Last season’s rankings are accessible here. The freshly published February’s Monthly Report investigates the link between age and success in Europe.
Is there an optimum squad age to win in football?
The demographic analysis of squads is a key research area of the CIES Football Observatory. The 32nd edition of the Monthly Report analyses the age structure of teams from 31 top division European leagues. This allows us to show discrepancies on an international level, while also investigating the links between the age structure of teams and success.
The comparative analysis of the average age of champions since 2009 reveals great cultural differences in the perception of the most favourable age structure for a squad. At one extreme, the youngest champions are to be found in the Netherlands (24.2 years), where teams pay high attention to the training and development of young talents. At the other extreme, Cypriot champion teams had the oldest squads over the period surveyed (28.8 years).
Generally, clubs that are more competitive have older squads. However, after a certain threshold of sporting and economic power, the age structure of clubs tends to converge around 26.5 years of age. Between 2009 and 2017, the median age of champions in the five major European leagues was also 26.5 years old. In order to achieve success at the highest level, it is important for clubs to have as many players who did not celebrate their 27th birthday than footballers over this age threshold.
Squad recruitment cost: Manchester City breaks its own record
No club in football history has invested as much money in transfer indemnities to assemble the squad than Manchester City presently. Despite the loan of Mangala to Everton, the expensive signing of Laporte brought the total squad recruitment cost to a record high of €878 M. The data for all big-5 league teams is available in issue number 214 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
Manchester City outranks Paris St-Germain (€805 M), Manchester United (€747 M) and Barcelona (€725 M). These are the only clubs having spent more than €700 M to assemble their current squad. The economic logic suggests that the next Champions League winners is to be found among these teams. However, while money is important, other factors such as team cohesion can influence the course of events.
The average amounts invested in transfer fees by league and team varies between €97 M for the French Ligue 1 to a record high of €291 M at English Premier League level. The figures in the three other competitions of the big-5 are more balanced: €113 M for the German Bundesliga, €124 M for the Italian Serie A and €131 M for the Spanish Liga. In total, 42 clubs out of 98 have a squad recruitment cost of more than €100 M.
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Exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer market analysis
Issue number 213 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses transactions carried out by big-5 league clubs during January’s transfer window. For the first time in history, the total estimated spending was over one billion euro. Transfer expenditure increased by 36% compared to the previous record figure measured in 2017. English Premier League investments accounted for 51% of transfer indemnities paid by big-5 league clubs as a whole.
Since 2010, Premier League teams always had negative balance sheets for operations carried out during winter windows. The net balance in 2018 was -€113 M despite the expensive transfers of Philippe Coutinho and Diego Costa from England to Spain. These signings mainly explain the record deficit observed for Spanish Liga teams: -€188 M. The estimated balance sheets for the three other major European championships were positive: +€48 M for the Italian Serie A, +€33 M for the German Bundesliga and +€14 M for the French Ligue 1.
Once again, a high correlation (75%) was measured between values estimated through the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm and fees paid by clubs. However, the majority of transfers were concluded for higher amounts than those estimated. This confirms the ongoing inflation trend in football players’ transfer market. The updated transfer values for all big-5 league squad members are available here.
The CIES Football Observatory launches the "performance rankings" widget
The CIES Football Observatory research group is happy to disclose a brand new “performance rankings” widget. This exclusive tool allows users to assess the level of big-5 league players over four different time periods: last week, last month, last three months and last six months. Footballers are ranked according to their pitch production in domestic league matches using the unique statistics produced by the leading data company OptaPro.
At the head of the European rankings for the last six and three months is David Silva (Manchester City), while Lionel Messi tops the table for the last month. Among the players who obtained the highest possible mark for last week matches are established stars such as Ángel Di Maria (Paris St-Germain), Arjen Robben (Bayern Munich) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid), as well as promising talents such as Álex Berenguer (Torino), Amine Harit (Schalke 04) and Moise Kean (Verona).
Two other widgets are available on the CIES Football Observatory website. They allow users comparing the technical profile of big-5 league players and monitoring trends in their transfer values. More information on the performance algorithms developed by the CIES Football Observatory is available here. This research note presents the approach used to estimate the transfer value of professional footballers.
Accurate pass statistics: Champions League teams at the top
The CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post number 212 presents the 100 clubs from 31 European competitions having achieved the most accurate passes per domestic league game since the start of the season. The Post also includes the exclusive InStat data on the percentage of accurate passes and the average number of passes completed per minute of possession.
All teams qualified for the last 16 round of the UEFA Champions League are in the top 100 positions of the rankings. However, the gaps are quite marked. At one end, Manchester City (1st) achieved 685 passes per match (17.2 per minute of possession). At the other end, FC Basel (94th) only completed 426 passes per domestic league game (14.4 per minute of possession). This is the highest gap between last 16 round adversaries.
The highest cumulated number of accurate passes per game for Champions League opponents was recorded for Paris St-Germain (622) and Real Madrid (540). At the opposite end is the Manchester United (459) and Sevilla (456) fixture. Our analysis suggests that these oppositions will be particularly even. The most probable quarter finalists with respect to pass statistics are Manchester City, Paris St-Germain, Bayern Munich, Shaktar Donetsk, Barcelona, Juventus, Liverpool and Manchester United.
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Manchester City heads the table for foreign signings
Issue number 211 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from the five major European championships according to the percentage of players signed from foreign clubs. Manchester City tops the rankings with 17 international recruitments out of 22 players fielded so far in domestic league games (77.3%). At the opposite end of the table is Athletic Club Bilbao (one player, Aymeric Laporte, out of 23).
The proportion of players signed from abroad is above two thirds in six other clubs: Chelsea, Lazio, Sevilla, Leipzig, Paris St-Germain and Udinese. In total, 29 teams recruited at least half of the footballers fielded so far from foreign clubs. English Premier League teams are over-represented among those transferring the highest percentage of squad members from abroad. Burnley (9.1%) and Bournemouth (9.5%) are exceptions to the rule.
In general, the most competitive clubs sign a greater percentage of players from foreign teams than lesser performing ones. However, this is not a fatality. Liverpool, Juventus, Real Madrid, Napoli, Manchester United, Barcelona and Tottenham all signed less than half of current squad members from abroad. The freshly published 31st edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents a deeper analysis of transfer networks in professional football.
New Monthly Report: a transfer network analysis
Football offers a wide array of possibilities to undertake network analysis. Issue number 31 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report focuses on transfer networks from a triple research perspective. What are the main destinations for players from the three principal exporting countries: Brazil, Argentina and France? What are the big-5 league clubs’ recruitment areas? Where do Real Madrid, Manchester United, AS Rome, Bayern Munich and Paris St-Germain sign their players?
The study shows that the Brazilian player is the only truly global worker in the professional football labour market. Brazilians are present in 80 of the 91 associations covered in the study. While also numerous abroad, Argentineans and French migrate relatively more to neighbouring countries. The analysis also reveals that teams from the five major European championships transfer a higher percentage of players from abroad. However, the proportion of footballers signed from non-European countries is on the decrease.
An increasing number of players in general, and non-European ones more specifically, first move to intermediary countries in order to prove themselves before to eventually being able to attain a club in the big-5 leagues. Within this increasingly speculative and fragmented context, many footballers get lost along the way. Today more than ever, mental strength and cultural adaptability are of key importance to have a successful career path.
Atlético Madrid tops the big-5 league efficiency rankings
The technical statistics produced by the leading data football company InStat are very valuable to analyse performance on an objective basis. Issue number 210 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 50 teams in 35 European competitions with the most positive and negative gaps between points per match achieved and predicted on the basis of a performance model including the variables of shots conceded from the box, possession and shots on target.
The highest positive gap between points achieved and predicted according to pitch production was recorded for Viktoria Plze?. The Czech side obtained so far 2.88 points per game instead of 1.6. At big-5 league level, the greater positive difference between points achieved and expected was measured for Atlético Madrid. Burnley, Monaco, Manchester United, Nantes and Valencia were also particularly efficient.
Conversely, Greek sides Platanias heads the table for teams that achieved the least points per game with respect to their performance level (-0.97 points per match). Benevento and Milan AC were also particularly inefficient. Future will tell to what extent these negative gaps are related to bad luck. The European rankings for the three performance metrics used for this analysis are available here. Please contact us for more information about InStat data.
Transfer values: Neymar, Messi and Kane at the top
Like every January, the CIES Football Observatory has calculated the transfer values of players in the five major European leagues. The assessment takes into account the key criteria used by market actors such as age, position, contract duration, performance, international status, etc. Neymar (€213m) heads the table ahead of Lionel Messi (€202m) and Harry Kane (€195m). The top 100 list is available in issue number 209 of the Weekly Post.
Five players from the English Premier League are in the top ten: Harry Kane (2nd), Dele Alli (6th), Kevin de Bruyne (7th), Romelu Lukaku (8th) and Paul Pogba (10th). However, the highest estimated values for goalkeepers and defenders were recorded for two FC Barcelona’s players: Marc-André ter Stegen (€96m) and Samuel Umtiti (€101m). Paulo Dybala (€175m) heads the Serie A rankings, while Robert Lewandowski (€107m) has the greatest figure for German Bundesliga players.
This research note details the scientific methodology used for these estimates. The ratings module on the CIES Football Observatory website presents the values for all big-5 league players. This transfer widget displays the trends from a comparative perspective. Potential clients and commercial partners are kindly invited to contact us to develop new collaborations for a new and exciting football year!
Full internationals: Barcelona heads the table
FC Barcelona currently employs 20 players fielded by national A-teams in 2017 for a record number of 139 matches and 10,846 minutes. The Catalan side outranks two English clubs (Manchester United and Tottenham), Juventus FC and Bayern Munich. At sixth place is the Nicaraguan team Real Estelí. The top 100 list is available in issue number 208 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
England is the most represented country in the top 100 positions: 16 clubs. Five English teams are in the top 10. Germany (10 clubs) and Italy (9) are the second and third nations with the most representatives in the top 100 rankings. The presence of six teams from the United States confirms the robust development of the professional game in this country.
Overall, 38 associations have at least one club ranked in the top 100. Among them, 20 are UEFA member associations, while 18 belongs to other Confederations. The three best ranked non-European teams are Real Estelí from Nicaragua, Al Sadd from Qatar and San Jose Earthquakes from the United States. For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
Our warmest season’s greetings to you and your family, and our best wishes for a happy and successful New Year!
Best performing big-5 league players of the semester
Every semester, the CIES Football Observatory lists players who performed the best in big-5 league matches using an exclusive statistical approach. Issue number 207 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 tables for eight positions. Only footballers who played at least 720’ domestic league minutes are included in the rankings.
Players from four leagues head the tables: Liga’s Jan Oblak (goalkeepers) and Lionel Messi (wingers); Premier League’s Nicolás Otamendi (centre backs) and Sergio Agüero (centre forwards); Ligue 1’s Marco Verratti (box-to-box midfielders) and Nabil Fekir (second strikers); as well as Serie A’s Faouzi Ghoulam (full backs) and Jorginho Frello (defensive midfielders).
Besides established football stars, in the top 10 tables also are relatively unknown footballers such as Nick Pope (Burnley), Alisson Becker (Roma), Michael Gregoritsch (Hoffenheim), Luis Alberto (Lazio) or Rodrigo Moreno (Valencia). The most represented club is Manchester City (12 players), ahead of Paris St-Germain (8 players).
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Highest transfer values for U21 players: Mbappé at the top
The young French prodigy Kylian Mbappé heads the CIES Football Observatory table for the U21 big-5 league players with the highest estimated transfer values. The Paris Saint-Germain striker outranks Dele Alli (Tottenham Hotspur) and Leroy Sané (Manchester City). The top 100 list is available in the issue number 206 of the Weekly Post.
According to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s algorithm, during the last three months, the transfer value of Kylian Mbappé has increased from €133.8 M to €182.8 M (+37%). This allowed him to outrank Dele Alli, whose transfer value remained stable at around €180 M. Ousmane Dembélé (Barcelona), Timo Werner (RB Leipzig) and Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) top the rankings in their respective leagues.
The estimated transfer values for all big-5 league players are available in the ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory’s website. This widget allows you comparing transfer value trends. Media and clubs interested in this tool or in our services can contact us.
Monthly Report highlights diversity of 2018 FIFA World Cup™ squads
The CIES Football Observatory and FIFA have joined forces to analyse the profiles of the players who were fielded by the 32 qualified teams on the road to Russia. The analysis highlights the diversity of the squads in terms of both age and height, as well as the importance of migration with almost two thirds of footballers currently playing for clubs outside of the association they represent.
Nigeria fielded the youngest players (with an average age of 24.9 years) in the qualifiers, followed by title-holders Germany (25.7) and by U-17 and U-20 world champions England (25.9). At the opposite end of the spectrum are two newcomers Panama (29.4 years) and Iceland (29.0), as well as 2014 FIFA World Cup quarter-finalists Costa Rica (29.0).
There were also considerable differences among the teams in terms of the average height of players. At one extreme, seven associations fielded players with an average height of less than 180cm: Peru, Argentina and Uruguay (CONMEBOL), Saudi Arabia and Japan (AFC), Mexico (CONCACAF), and Spain (UEFA). At the other extreme, the average height of the players fielded by four European nations – Iceland, Denmark, Sweden and Serbia – was at least 185cm.
The study also reveals that about 9% of players were born outside of the association they represent. Only seven of the 32 teams did not field any players born abroad. The number of footballers playing for clubs outside of the association they represent also illustrates the importance of migration in football. In total, 64.6% of footballers play abroad: from 0% for England and Saudi Arabia, to 100% for Croatia, Sweden and Iceland.
The full study is available in issue number 30 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. The CIES Football Observatory is a research group within the Centre International d’Étude du Sport (CIES), a Swiss-based independent study centre founded in 1995 by FIFA in partnership with the canton and town of Neuchâtel. More information is available at www.cies.ch and www.football-observatory.com.
Most fielded young players: the top 10s per position
The 204th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post lists the 10 most fielded footballers per position born in or after 1997 in both the big-5 leagues and 26 other top division European championships. With 19 players, the French Ligue 1 is by far the most represented competition. The youngest footballer in the big-5 league tables is Dan-Axel Zagadou (Borussia Dortmund).
Players from all of the five major European championships except Germany head the big-5 league rankings: Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) and Alban Lafont (Toulouse) for goalkeepers, Unai Núñez (Athletic Club) for centre backs, Kelvin Amian (Toulouse) for full backs, Lucas Tousart (Lyon) for defensive midfielders, Carlos Soler (Valencia) for attacking midfielders, as well as Richarlison (Watford) for forwards.
The most represented leagues among the remaining 26 competitions studied are the Dutch and Slovakian top divisions (8 players each), followed by the Croatian (6) and Ukrainian (5) ones. The youngest footballer in the rankings is Juho Hyvärinen (Rovaniemi). The average age on the pitch for all clubs and leagues analysed is available in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas.
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Defensive impermeability: who can beat Manchester City?
Issue number 203 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses data provided by InStat to highlight the 100 clubs from 35 European competitions that conceded the least shots from their own box per domestic league game played since the start of the season. The lowest figure was recorded for Olimpija Ljubljana, while Manchester City heads the big-5 league rankings.
Only 12 clubs from the five major European leagues are in the top 100. This is mainly due to more open styles of play, as notably illustrated in the 28th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. Panathinaikos is the most impermeable team among those not ranked in the top three positions of their league.
The top 50 rankings for defence, possession and attack are available on the CIES Football Observatory website. For more information about data produced by the leading football data company InStat, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
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Transfer values per club: four potential billionaires
Issue number 202 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks big-5 league teams according to the estimated transfer value of their players. The aggregated value of current squad members is above one billion euro for four clubs: Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, FC Barcelona and Chelsea FC.
Transfer values are estimated on the basis of the algorithm exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. According to this, Manchester City’s current squad has a total transfer value of almost €1.2 billion. Kevin de Bruyne is the potentially most expensive Manchester City player (€144.5 million), while three other City’s squad members are worth more than €100 million: Leroy Sané, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus.
The up-to-date estimated values for all big-5 league players are available in the ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory website. The freshly conceived transfer value widget presents the historical trends for each player. Media interested in using this tool can contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
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New study reveals growing instability in European football
Since 2009, the CIES Football Observatory has monitored the evolution of the demographics of players in 31 European top division leagues. The 2017 census reveals the intensification of the key trends observed throughout the period analysed: decrease of club-trained players, increase of expatriates and growing squad instability. The Monthly Report number 29 presents the data for all leagues studied.
Henceforth, club-trained players only account for 18.5% of squads (-4.7% since 2009). It is the lowest figure ever recorded. Conversely, the percentage of expatriates reached a new record high: 39.7% (+5.0% since 2009). A new record high was also observed with regard to the percentage of players signed during the year: 44.8% (+8.1% since 2009).
These trends reflect the increasing speculation on transfer operations and, more generally, in the management of professional teams across Europe. The central question is to know just how far this process can go without jeopardising the interest of competitions, the credibility of professional football and its sustainable development in the majority of countries.
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Does height matter in football?
Issue number 201 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the lists of the 50 clubs from 36 European leagues who fielded the tallest and shortest line-ups since the start of the season. At the head of the rankings are FC København (186.2cm) and Ludogorets Razgrad (177.0cm). But does height explain success at adult level?
No correlation exists between the average height of teams and results achieved. The gaps observed rather reflect different approaches to the game. While some coaches prefer tall players, other give priority to shorter ones. However, very short players will struggle to establish themselves as professionals. The average height of all footballers in the leagues surveyed is 182.1 cm.
In total, only 67 clubs out of 572 (11.7%) fielded players on average shorter than 180cm. Among them, we notably find Manchester City (Guardiola), OGC Nice (Favre), FC Barcelona (Valverde), Olympique Lyonnais (Génésio) and Real Madrid (Zidane). The data for all teams in 31 top division European leagues is available in the CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas.
Brand new player performance comparator widget
The CIES Football Observatory has further developed its website with the inclusion of a brand new player performance widget. Using data provided by OptaPro, this unique tool allows users to compare the technical profile of players from the five major European leagues.
The comparison takes into account the performance of players in six areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting. The CIES Football Index measures the general performance of footballers over the last 1,000 domestic league minutes played. More information on the exclusive CIES Football Observatory approach is available in this research note.
This new and exciting tool is an ideal complement to the transfer value trend widget launched last month. The CIES Football Observatory research team is happy to stay at your disposal for any request at football.observatory@cies.ch.
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Training clubs: Ajax and Real Madrid at the top
Issue number 200 of the increasingly popular CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights the clubs having trained the most footballers present on the 1st of October 2017 in 31 top division European leagues. At the top of the table is Ajax Amsterdam, while Real Madrid trained the most big-5 league players.
Following UEFA’s definition, training clubs are teams where players stayed for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21. AFC Ajax trained 71 footballers currently active in the 31 European championships surveyed. This figure was 72 on the 1st of October 2016. The Dutch team outranks Dinamo Zagreb (67) and Partizan Belgrad (61).
As for 2016, Real Madrid tops the table for big-5 league players. Eight of the 41 footballers trained by the Spanish side still play at Real Madrid. The second and third teams having trained the most players currently active in the five major European championships are Barcelona (34) and Olympique Lyonnais (31).
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Shots on target: SSC Naples heads the table
The ability of teams to shoot is a key success factor. This holds even more true with regard to shots on target. Using the exclusive data produced by InStat, issue number 199 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 clubs from the main top division European leagues presenting the highest figures for shots on target per match during the current season.
No team in the competitions surveyed achieved as many shots on target per domestic league game as SSC Napoli: 8.9. The Italian top-ranked team outranks Ajax (8.5) and their opponents in tonight Champions League game Manchester City (8.0).
The number of shots on target correlates inversely with the average distance of shots attempted. The best performing teams not only attempt more shots overall, but shoot on average from a closer range than less competitive sides. Consequently, the percentage of their shots that reach the target is generally higher.
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Apollon Limassol at the top of the expatriate table
Issue number 198 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks top division teams from 31 European associations according to the percentage of domestic league minutes played by expatriates since the start of the season. Three Cypriot clubs are at the top of this ranking: Apollon Limassol (99.8%), Anorthosis Famagusta (95.3%) et AEK Larnaca (91.5%). Chelsea is ranked first at the big-5 league level (90.4%).
Expatriates are players who grew up in a different association from that of their employer club and who went abroad for football-related reasons. Only three teams out of the 466 included in the analysis did not yet field expatriate footballers in domestic league games this season: Oleksandriya (UKR), Veres (UKR) and HIFK (FIN).
In total, expatriates played 41.6% of minutes available. At league level, this figure varies from 80.2% in the Cypriot top division to 15.0% in Serbia. The data for all leagues and clubs surveyed is available for free in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas.
Monthly Report: performance and playing styles in 35 European leagues
The analysis of pitch performances at both individual and collective level is one of the three principle fields of research of the CIES Football Observatory. The 28th edition of our Monthly Report compares 35 national competitions across Europe using the database made available by the InStat company. The sample comprises 19,544 matches played between the 1st September 2015 and the 31st August 2017.
The analysis focuses on three aspects: the teams’ ball management, the degree of openness of games, as well as the level of power balance between opponents. The principle conclusion drawn is that the top leagues differentiate themselves above all by the fluidity of games, as illustrated by the highest level of successful passes and the quickest ball circulation.
The five best values in terms of passes per minutes of possession were recorded for the five major European championships, with a maximum of 18.2 for the German Bundesliga. The big-5 leagues also top the table for the percentage of successful passes, with a maximum of 82.4% for the Italian Serie A. More surprisingly, the Swedish and Israeli top divisions figure high in this ranking.
This study is but an initial foray in exploiting the numerous possibilities available thanks to the new collaboration between the CIES Football Observatory and InStat. The depth and breadth of data produced by this company constitutes a solid basis for many future research projects.
Transfer value trends: Lukaku at the top
The CIES Football Observatory has specialised in the scientific estimation of professional players’ transfer value. Issue number 197 of the Weekly Post highlights big-5 league footballers whose transfer value augmented the most in absolute terms since July 2017. At the head of the rankings are Romelu Lukaku (+€56m), Kylian Mbappé (+€50m) and Paulo Dybala (+€47m).
The estimated value of Romelu Lukaku increased by 54% during the last three months: from €102.7m before his transfer to Manchester United to €158.5 m after his excellent start of the season. Beyond inflation, expensive transfers to other teams, contract extensions and top level performances are the key reasons underlying the strongest increases observed.
In relative terms, the increase was above 100% for many young and promising players. Among them notably are Patrick Cutrone (Milan), Adama Diakhaby (Monaco) and Dennis Geiger (Hoffenheim). The exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer value widget presents the trends for all big-5 league players, while their technical profile is available here.
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Ball possession: Celtic heads the rankings
The fresh collaboration with the leading football data company InStat allows us to present exclusive analysis on the performance of clubs throughout Europe. The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post of this kind focuses on the percentage of ball possession since the start of the season for teams from 35 national competitions. The highest figure overall was recorded for Celtic Glasgow: 70.8%.
The Scottish team completed 659 passes per match compared to an average of 196 for their opponents. Celtic made 7.1 passes per possession phase, while their opponents only achieved three. The average duration of a possession was 23.5 seconds for Celtic and only 11.1 seconds for their opponents.
Big-5 league clubs are over-represented in the top positions of the rankings. This reflects the greater technical ability of their players, as well as the stronger importance given to possession in the playing philosophy of a higher proportion of teams. For more insights on data produced by InStat, please contact football.observatory@cies.ch.
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Youngest teams across Europe
Issue number 195 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks top division clubs from 31 European associations according to the average age of line-ups fielded since the start of the current season. The lowest figure overall was recorded for the Ukrainian side Stal Kamianske (21.7 years), while the youngest team at big-5 league level so far is LOSC Lille (22.9 years).
In the top five positions of the rankings also are NAC Breda, Lokomotiva Zagreb, AS Tren?ín and FC Nordsjælland. Fifteen clubs from the five major European leagues are in the top 100: seven from Bundesliga (Leipzig, Leverkusen, Freiburg, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart, Hamburg and Köln), six from Ligue 1 (Lille, Rennes, Toulouse, Bordeaux, St-Etienne and Lyon), one from Italy (Milan) and one from Spain (Valencia).
The youngest English Premier League team, Newcastle United, is only ranked 113th out of the 466 clubs included in the analysis. The data for all of the teams is available in the freshly updated version of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas. More than 50,000 internauts passionate about football have already visited this unique tool.
The CIES Football Observatory innovates with brand new transfer value widget
The CIES Football Observatory is proud to announce the launching of its latest innovation: a widget allowing anyone to follow the evolution of the transfer value of players from the big-5 leagues. Freely available to all, this new tool also allows users to compare transfer value trends between different footballers.
The widget is a new step in the popularisation of the research work carried out by the CIES Football Observatory. Transfer values are estimated according to an algorithm exclusively developed by the Observatory’s academic team. A research note on the methodology used is available here.
Through the widget, the goal is to increase the digital presence of the CIES Football Observatory. Within this context, collaborations with mainstream media are considered. In parallel, we spare no effort to enrich contents available on our website. Stay in touch!
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Manchester City has the costliest squad in football history
Manchester City invested a record value of €853 million in transfer fees to assemble its current squad. This value is €850 million for Paris St-Germain and €784 million for previous record holder Manchester United. The data for all big-5 league teams is available in issue number 194 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
Manchester City’s total transfer fee expenditure to make up its squad went up by €242m compared to September 2016. The increase was even stronger for Paris St-Germain: +€395m (including the €180m investment for Mbappé). The figure for Manchester United is “only” €66m higher than one year ago, while that of Champions League winners Real Madrid went down by €138m.
The six biggest English teams are in the top ten positions of the rankings. The aggregated values per league are €5.7bn for the Premier League (on average €287m per team, +28% compared to previous year), €2.4bn for the Serie A (€122m per team, +26%), €2.2bn for the Liga (€110m per team, +9%), as well as €1.9bn for the Bundesliga (€107m per team, +19%) and the Ligue 1 (€93m per team, +78%).
Balance sheets for transfer operations: from Monaco to Paris St-Germain
Issue number 193 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the financial assessments of paying fee transfers carried out by big-5 league clubs during the last summer window. In total, 40 big-5 league clubs out of 98 had a credit balance. The biggest net profit was recorded for Monaco: +€289 million. At the opposite end of the spectrum is Paris St-Germain: -€343 million.
Monaco received €394 million in transfer indemnities for squad members and reinvested €105 million in new signings. Among the ten clubs with the most positive balance are three teams from Italy (Sampdoria, Lazio and Fiorentina), two from England (Swansea and Arsenal), two from France (Monaco and Lyon), two from Germany (Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen), as well as one from Spain (Real Madrid).
Paris St-Germain invested €418 million (including add-ons) to recruit new players, while it only received €75 million in transfer fees for players under contract. Six out of the 10 teams with the most negative transfer balance are from the English Premier League (Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Brighton & Hove, Liverpool and Huddersfield). A deeper analysis on net monetary flows between leagues is available in the 27th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.
Publication of the CIES Football Observatory transfer market report
The CIES Football Observatory took advantage of the summer break to strengthen its ability to deliver unique information to its growing audience. The first output is the brand new Monthly Report published today, which tracks the money invested in transfer indemnities by big-5 league clubs since 2010.
Transfer fees paid by big-5 league teams have strongly increased. For the fifth consecutive year, a record was set in 2017: €5.9 billion (+41% in comparison with the previous year). If we only take into account the summer transfers, the increase compared to 2016 was 38%: from €3.7 to €5.1 billion. These figures include conditional payments (add-ons), as well as sums for loans with an obligation to buy.
Over the summer of 2017, similar to preceding years, the Premier League clubs have spent the most: about €1.55 billion in fixed transfer fees and €220 million in conditional payments. On average, an English top division club invested €89 million to sign new players. In the other championships studied, this figure varies between €55 million (Serie A) and €34 million (Liga).
The spatial analysis of the sums invested by big-5 league teams during the summer of 2017 shows that most of the money remains within these championships: €3.7 billion (71% of the total). However, only 52% of paid transfers carried out by big-5 league clubs involved players under contract with teams from these competitions. This imbalance is due to the fact that the most expensive transfers occur between clubs in the big-5. The cases of Neymar, Mbappé and Dembélé are perfect examples of this situation.
Rather than call into question the usefulness of the transfer system, as argued by FIFPro notably, the CIES Football Observatory analysis makes a case for the reinforcement of redistribution mechanisms. An increase in indemnities paid to training clubs, as well as an augmentation and generalisation of solidarity contributions, such as those planned by FIFA for international transfers, would constitute concrete measures for improving the system.
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Transfer value update
The CIES Football Observatory is pleased to inform that the ratings module on its website presents the updated transfer values of all players in the five major European leagues. The most significant changes since June were recorded for full internationals, as well as for footballers transferred for big money to big clubs.
Among new full internationals, there are many German players such as Sandro Wagner, Kerem Demirbay, Lars Stindl, Marvin Plattenhardt, Diego Demme and Kevin Trapp. The transfer value of Jemerson (Monaco) went also up from €35m to €50m following his first cap with the Brazilian national A-team.
Signed for fees very close to CIES Football Observatory estimates, players such as Romelu Lukaku, Bernardo Silva, Alexandre Lacazette and Corentin Tolisso have now even greater values. The future trend will depend on their ability to establish themselves as key players in their new and more prestigious teams.
Interrupted as usually during the summer, the publication of our weekly posts and monthly reports will start again with the beginning of the 2017/18 season. In the meantime, we communicate on Twitter. Do not hesitate to follow us: @CIES_Football.
The FIGC marathon of innovation: European hackathon on football
The CIES Football Observatory is happy to promote the European Hackathon on Football. The event is organised by the Italian Football Federation (FIGC), in collaboration with the University of Trento and the Autonomous Province of Trento. It will be held on the 14th and 15th October 2017 in Trento (northern part of Italy).
The hackathon is a meeting point where virtuous high-tech people, people passionate about innovation and entrepreneurship (as well as football) gather and aggregate in order to create and submit to the evaluation of a jury of experts applied solutions and/or projects in the field of the “theme” of the contest: match analysis and community of FIGC members.
Parallel to the hackathon, a series of public events, conferences and meetings on innovation, technologies, football and sports will be organised. They will involve players, managers, sponsors, partners, communication experts and journalists. The CIES Football Observatory’s head and founder, Dr. Raffaele Poli, will participate as a guest speaker.
Participation is free but previous registration is needed. More information is available here.
New exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer value estimates
The CIES Football Observatory research team has developed a powerful approach to estimate on a scientific basis the transfer value of professional football players. Issue number 192 of the Weekly Post presents the list of the 110 big-5 league footballers with an estimated value of more than € 40 million. Barcelona’s Neymar tops the table ahead of Tottenham’s Dele Alli and Harry Kane.
The exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm is based on the thorough analysis of almost 2,000 paying fee transfers. The variables through which transfer values are modelled notably include the performance of both players and employer clubs, international status, contract, age and position. More information is available in the 16th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.
The English Premier League is over-represented among footballers listed. The estimated transfer value of the tenth most expensive Premier League player is € 85 M. This figure is € 73 M for the Spanish Liga, € 51 M for the Italian Serie A, € 47 M for the German Bundesliga and € 40 M for the French Ligue 1. The youngest player in the rankings is the French prodigy Kylian Mbappé (€ 93 M), while the oldest is the evergreen Portuguese striker Cristiano Ronaldo (€ 112 M).
The ratings module on the CIES Football Observatory website presents the estimated transfer value for all big-5 league players. Deeper analysis is undertaken on a consultancy basis. More information is also published through the official CIES Football Observatory Twitter account. For further enquiries, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
First CIES Football Observatory report on women’s football
Women’s football is currently undergoing a welcome development. At the elite level, the process of professionalisation is well underway in several countries worldwide. Following in the footsteps of the CIES Football Observatory studies, Monthly Report number 26 analyses the composition of squads in five of the world’s most developed leagues: four European (Germany, Sweden, France and England), as well as the Women’s National Soccer League in the United States.
The report notably highlights that women’s football is generating more and more international movements. On the 1st June 2017, 274 footballers were expatriated in the 55 clubs analysed (5.1 per team). Only 5 clubs out of 55 did not field expatriate players. Conversely, expatriates played a majority of minutes in five teams: SC Sand, Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg in Germany, as well as Rosengård and Vittsjö in Sweden.
The study also underlines that the most successful women’s teams field almost exclusively players with international status. The highest values in absolute were measured at Champions League winners Olympique Lyonnais (97.7%) and Wolfsburg (97.4%). Full internationals also played more than 80% of match minutes at Rosengård, Bayern Munich, Paris St-Germain and Eskilstuna United.
While the general level of women’s football grows, the increase in the means at the disposal of the wealthiest clubs poses a problem in terms of competitive balance. The eventual creation of international leagues bringing together the richest teams is an option. However, this should not occur at the expense of the multiple actors having historically worked, and often struggled, so that the women’s game could progress and reach its current level.
Turnover: Chelsea versus Manchester United
Weekly Post number 191 of the CIES Football Observatory presents turnover strategies followed in domestic league matches of the 2016/17 season by clubs from 27 top division European leagues. Chelsea FC holds the record for the highest percentage of minutes played by the 11 most employed footballers: 85.5%. Conversely, Manchester United is among the 50 clubs with the highest turnover rate.
Many Champions League participants are part of the 50 clubs in which the 11 most fielded footballers played for the highest percentage of minutes: Tottenham, Napoli, Sporting Clube de Portugal, Monaco and Atlético Madrid. Europa League finalist Ajax also features in the list. This finding shows that it is possible to be successful both at domestic and European level without high turnover rates.
However, Manchester United followed a radically different strategy. José Mourinho’s team is among the 50 teams in the 27 leagues surveyed with the lowest percentage of minutes played by the 11 most fielded footballers: 62.8%. This reflects an unusually high level of changes in line-ups selected. In the future, more stability is probably needed to sustainably improve results.
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Stakhanovist players: Antoine Griezmann heads the rankings
Issue number 190 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks footballers from the five major European leagues according to the number of minutes played in official games since July 1st 2016. The French and Atlético Madrid star Antoine Griezmann tops the table ahead of Wilfred Ndidi (Genk, Leicester and Nigeria) and teammate Koke.
Apart from Griezmann, Ndidi and Koke, five other footballers played for more than 5,000 minutes: Danijel Subaši? (Monaco and Croatia), Kamil Glik (Monaco and Poland), Neymar (Barcelona and Brazil), Paul Pogba (Manchester United and France), as well as Marquinhos (Paris St-Germain and Brazil).
In the top 100 positions of the rankings are ten players of the two Champions League finalist teams: five from Juventus (Higuaín, Buffon, Bonucci, Mandžuki? and Khedira) and five from Real Madrid (Kroos, Ronaldo, Ramos, Marcelo and Navas). While some fatigue certainly exists, it should not prevent players from producing an enjoyable show on Saturday.
Best tacklers: the big-5 league rankings
Issue number 189 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks big-5 league players according to their tackling skills. The tackling index is calculated by multiplying the average number of tackles attempted per 90 minutes and their success rate. Only players fielded for at least 1,500 domestic league minutes are included in the analysis.
Players from three different championships figure in the top three positions of the rankings: Valentin Rongier (Nantes), Carlos Casemiro (Real Madrid) and Idrissa Gueye (Everton). The top ranked Bundesliga player is Douglas Santos (Hamburg), while Gastón Brugman (Pescara) tops the Italian Serie A table.
In quantitative terms, the big-5 league who player who attempted the most tackles is Sergio Álvarez (Sporting Gijón): 138. Idrissa Gueye (Everton) achieved the most: 99. The highest success rate among players in the top 100 list was recorded for Pedro Obiang (West Ham): 89%. A successful tackle is defined by our data provider OptaPro as tackles resulting in winning possession or the ball being put out of play.
Best big-5 league players of the season
Issue number 188 of the Weekly Post presents the best players of the 2016/17 big-5 league season. The rankings were elaborated according to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s approach to measure player performance on an objective and comparable basis. Lionel Messi outranks Cristiano Ronaldo in the table for wingers.
Three Bayern Munich players top the rankings in their respective position: Manuel Neuer for goalkeepers, Javi Martínez for centre backs (ahead of teammate Mats Hummels), as well as Thiago Alcântara for central defensive midfielders. Only footballers who have played at least 2,000 minutes in domestic league games are included in the analysis.
Alex Sandro and Marcelo (full backs), Kevin de Bruyne (central attacking midfielders), Lionel Messi (wingers) and Dries Mertens (centre forwards) head the rankings for the other positions considered. Except for de Bruyne and Marcelo, all these players are also to be found in the CIES Football Observatory’s 4-3-3 best XI of the season alongside Bruno Peres (right full back), Paul Pogba and Naby Keita (box-to-box midfielders), as well as Cristiano Ronaldo (left winger).
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Brazil tops the list for football players’ export
The 25th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses the presence of expatriate footballers in 137 leagues from 93 national associations at worldwide level. In total, 12,051 expatriates originating from 174 national associations are currently present in the 2,120 clubs studied. Brazilians are the most numerous abroad (1,202 players), ahead of French (781) and Argentineans (753).
The report also presents the main destinations for the principal exporting countries. While the main destination of Brazilians is Portugal (221 players), that of French is England (107 players). The most numerous contingent of Argentineans is to be found in Chile (106 players). Also well represented in foreign associations, English footballers mainly go to Wales (143 players) and Scotland (114).
Expatriate players are present in all of the 93 countries and 137 leagues surveyed. Their overall percentage in squads is 21.6%. The CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas provides data on their playing time in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations. For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.
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The importance of big chances… or not!
The ability to both create and convert big chances is a key success factor. However, issue number 187 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights that in four out of the five major European leagues, teams heading the table distinguished themselves from runner-up clubs above all for their ability to score with no clear-cut opportunity available.
Rome (26), Paris St-Germain (25), Tottenham (34) and RB Leipzig (25) scored significantly fewer goals from situations with no big chance available than Juventus (37), Monaco (36), Chelsea (41) and Bayern Munich (40). In no big-5 European league, the club having created the most clear-cut scoring opportunities tops the rankings: PSG, Barcelona, Rome, Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City.
The key question is thus to know why some teams scored more goals with no big chance available. Luck certainly plays a role at this level. However, the greater desire to win should probably also be taken into account. In addition, while the best form of defence is attack, we should not forget the importance of defensive teamwork to win trophies.
Money and success: over- and under-performing teams
Issue number 186 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the results of big-5 league teams according to their transfer expenditure to sign the players fielded over the 2016/17 season. A positive and significant correlation was measured between fees paid and points per match in all leagues surveyed. This confirms the strong link between money and success.
Three teams performed much better than the amounts invested on the transfer market would have suggested: West Bromwich Albion, Atalanta and Freiburg. The most positive gaps in the French Ligue 1 were recorded for Nantes and Nice. Eibar and Alavés are at the top of the table at Spanish Liga level.
The club having so far the most under-performed with regard to its expenditure in signing players fielded is Wolfsburg. Results obtained by Valencia, Bayer Leverkusen, Hamburg and Sunderland were also clearly disappointing. The same holds true for Bastia in France, as well as for Inter and Palermo in Italy.
Best dribblers: the top 100 big-5 league list
Issue number 185 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 100 list of the best performing big-5 league players in the area of dribbling. Middlesbrough’s Adama Traoré outranks Eden Hazard (Chelsea) and Allan Saint-Maximin (Bastia). Neymar, Lionel Messi and Alexis Sánchez also are in the top 10 positions of the rankings.
The dribbling index is calculated by dividing the number of dribbles attempted by the percentage of successful ones. This allows us taking into account dribbling skills from both a quantitative and a qualitative perspective. In quantitative terms, the big-5 league player who attempted the most dribbles so far is Barcelona’s Neymar (269), ahead of Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace) and Felipe Anderson (Lazio).
The best ratio of successful dribbles among players in the top 100 list was recorded for OGC Nice’s midfielder Wylan Cyprien (87%). At second position is another French Ligue 1 player: Marco Verratti (Paris St-Germain). The best ratio for players who attempted more than 100 dribbles was observed for Eden Hazard: 75%.
Digital Atlas updated
Dear subscriber,
The CIES Football Observatory research team is happy to inform you that the Digital Atlas was updated. It now takes into account domestic league games played during the last six months. This exclusive tool allows you to compare the squad make-up of teams in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations.
In addition, the new top 100 lists of the teams having fielded club-trained players for the highest percentage of minutes, the most stable line-ups, as well as the youngest ones are now available. The rankings refer both to the 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations and the five major European championships (Spanish Liga, English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and French Ligue 1).
We hope that you will enjoy these tools. Any feedback is welcome. We also kindly invite you to follow us on Twitter. Thank you for your interest!
The demographic stock exchange: a new tool at the service of football
The CIES Football Observatory published today the 24th edition of its Monthly Report. The study focuses on the demographic evolution of the big-5 European leagues since the start of the 2009/10 season. It notably shows that the percentage of minutes played by club-trained footballers in the English Premier League reached a new record low during the current season (6.1%).
The Report also highlights the increase in the playing time of expatriate footballers at the level of the five major European championships. Between 2009 and 2017, the percentage of minutes played by expatriates went up from 44.4% to 48.2%. A new record high was measured in January 2017: 48.7%. If this trend continues, the symbolic 50% threshold will be reached soon.
Today, expatriates already play the majority of minutes in the English Premier League and the Italian Serie A. In the two cases, we are close to record values. The Serie A also differentiates itself from the other leagues with regard to the extent of the increase measured since the 2009/10 season. On the other hand, the German Bundesliga is the only championship where the current value is lower than that recorded at the beginning of the period investigated.
The employment level of young players also varies considerably according to league. During the period studied, the French Ligue 1 overtook the German Bundesliga to become the competition where teams have the most confidence in U21 players. At the other extreme, the English Premier League overtook the Italian Serie A as the league in which U21 footballers have the least amount of playing time.
During the last six months, the percentage of domestic league minutes played by U21 footballers was 5.2% for the Premier League, 10.1% for the Serie A, 11.1% for the Liga, 13.3% for the Bundesliga and 15.7% for the Ligue 1. In England, the current value is very close to the record low measured in August 2013. In Italy, however, the record high measured in January 2017 could be beaten again by the end of the season.
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The Champions League among the most unbalanced competitions
The CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post n° 184 presents the percentage of matches ended with a three-goal gap or over for 31 top division European leagues, as well as UEFA’s Champions League and Europa League. The analysis shows that the Champions League is among the most unbalanced competitions.
From the group stage up until now, the goal gap for more than a fifth of Champions League matches was at least three (21.0%). This is the third highest figure among competitions surveyed after those recorded in the Cypriot (22.5%) and Austrian (21.5%) top divisions. However, the value measured in the Europa League is particularly low (13.5%).
The big-5 leagues are also in the first half of the most unbalanced competitions. This finding reflects the increasing wealth gaps between participating teams. To re-balance competitions, the only solution would be to improve the distribution of financial (TV rights) and human (transfer market) resources at both national and international level.
Goals per match: the European league rankings
Issue number 183 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 31 top division European leagues according to goals scored since July 1st 2016. At the top of the table is the Swiss Super League (3.33 goals per game). The Russian Premier League finds itself at the opposite end of the spectrum (1.99).
At the level of the five major European championships, the figures vary from 2.90 goals per match in the Spanish Liga to 2.60 in the French Ligue 1. The English Premier League (2.84) ranks sixth (out of 31) at European level and second between the big-5 leagues.
Generally speaking, a negative correlation exists between the number of goals scored and the number of cards issued by referees (see Weekly Post n° 182). More goals equals to fewer cards. This finding confirms the existence of cultural differences in the way of approaching the matches according to country.
From Greece to Norway: booking politics throughout Europe
For the first time, issue number 182 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents data on cards issued by referees. The 31 top division European championships surveyed are ranked according to the average number of cards given per game. The Greek Super League heads the table (5.52), while the Norwegian Eliteserien is at the bottom of the rankings (2.93).
Southern and Eastern European countries are over-represented among those where the referees issue the most cards. On the contrary, in the majority of Northern and Western European countries, the number of cards is relatively low. These gaps reflect the existence of different cultures both from a player and a referee behaviour perspective.
Generally speaking, the number of yellow cards is correlated to that of red ones. The French Ligue 1 is an exception. At international level, French referees issue few yellow cards, but a lot of red ones. At the opposite end of the spectrum, in the English Premier League, the amount of red cards is very low compared to that of yellow cards.
Oldest clubs: the top 100 European list
Issue number 181 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights the 100 clubs from 31 top division championships of UEFA member associations having on average fielded the oldest line ups in the domestic league matches played during the last six months. The most represented countries in the rankings are England and Turkey (10 clubs each), followed by Cyprus and Russia (9 teams).
At the top of the table is the Italian side Chievo Verona (32.1 years). The average age on the pitch of five other clubs was higher than 30 years: three from Cyprus (AEK Larnaca, Nea Salamis and Apollon Limassol), one from England (West Bromwich) and one from Greece (Kerkyra). The values per league are freely available online via the CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas. This tool also allows users to access the data for all clubs in the leagues surveyed.
In addition, the CIES Football Observatory website presents the top 100 list of the youngest top division teams from the 31 UEFA member associations taken into account. The most represented country is the Netherlands (12 clubs), followed by Croatia (8), Germany and Slovakia (7 teams each). No English Premier League team is in the top 100 positions. The youngest team overall is the Slovakian side Senica (22.2 years).
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New Monthly Report: strategic analysis of a professional league
The studies carried out since 2005 by the CIES Football Observatory are not only geared towards the general public, but are also useful to actors in the game. The 23rd Monthly Report illustrates an approach that allows a professional football league to analyse on an objective basis its international positioning and influence in a positive way the strategic choices of the clubs that compose it.
The example chosen is that of the Swiss Football League. This choice is a result of the trust, built up over a number of years, that this institution has shown towards the CIES Football Observatory. This trust has led to the commissioning of several studies and research reports. These documents are available freely online in both French and German on the Swiss Football League website.
The Report notably highlights that in the current context of economic polarisation, the good health of the vast majority of clubs and leagues worldwide will depend on their ability join forces in their own interests. From the sporting point of view, the emphasis must be placed on improving the protection of the work of training, and, more generally, to increase the level of solidarity in the transfer system.
Squad turnover during the last five years: from Genoa to Bayern
The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post was published in March 2012. To celebrate this birthday, we ranked the 54 clubs always present in the big-5 leagues during the last five years according to the number of players fielded in domestic league games. Italian side Genoa used the most players overall: 137! At the opposite end of the spectrum are Athletic Club Bilbao, Bayern Munich and Borussia Mönchengladbach (55 players).
Eight of the eleven teams always present in the big-5 who fielded more than 100 players in domestic league matches since March 2012 are Italian. This reflects the very speculative transfer market approach existing in Italy. The greatest figures in squad turnover per league were recorded at Genoa (137 players), Granada (129), Sunderland (103), Nice and Stade Rennais (91, including many players from the youth academy), as well as Werder Bremen (90).
Many well-structured and performing teams fielded the fewest players during the period analysed. Among them, we notably find Bayern Munich (55 players), Paris St-Germain (64), Real Madrid (64 too), Arsenal (65) and Barcelona (66). The Weekly Post also presents the footballer who played the most domestic league minutes during the last five years for each club taken into consideration. St-Etienne’s goalkeeper Stéphane Ruffier tops the table: 16,650 minutes.
Best players per area of the game
Issue number 179 of the Weekly Post presents the best performing big-5 league players in the six areas of the game that make up the exclusive CIES Football Observatory approach for the technical analysis of performance. The data refers to the last 1,000 minutes played by each player in domestic league matches. Only footballers fielded for at least 360 minutes since January 1st are included.
Nicolás Otamendi (Manchester City) heads the table for rigour ahead of Marquinhos (Paris St-Germain) and Javi Martínez (Bayern Munich). In the area of recovery, Sead Kolašinac (Schalke 04) outranks teammate Benedikt Höwedes, Xabi Alonso (Bayern Munich) and Omar Mascarell (Eintracht Frankfurt). Three players top the distribution rankings: Thiago Motta (Paris St-Germain), Jorginho and Marek Hamšík (both Naples).
Two young talents have the highest possible score for take on: Allan Saint-Maximin (Bastia, on loan from Monaco) and Adama Traoré (Middlesbrough). Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) head the tables for chance creation and shooting.
Seven players are in the top 10 rankings in two different areas: Xabi Alonso, Ander Herrera and Arturo Vidal in recovery and distribution; Toni Kroos in distribution and chance creation; Alejandro Gómez and Neymar in take on and chance creation; as well as Lionel Messi in both chance creation and shooting.
The profile of all big-5 league players is available here.
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