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Ball possession: Celtic heads the rankings

The fresh collaboration with the leading football data company InStat allows us to present exclusive analysis on the performance of clubs throughout Europe. The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post of this kind focuses on the percentage of ball possession since the start of the season for teams from 35 national competitions. The highest figure overall was recorded for Celtic Glasgow: 70.8%.

The Scottish team completed 659 passes per match compared to an average of 196 for their opponents. Celtic made 7.1 passes per possession phase, while their opponents only achieved three. The average duration of a possession was 23.5 seconds for Celtic and only 11.1 seconds for their opponents.

Big-5 league clubs are over-represented in the top positions of the rankings. This reflects the greater technical ability of their players, as well as the stronger importance given to possession in the playing philosophy of a higher proportion of teams. For more insights on data produced by InStat, please contact football.observatory@cies.ch.

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Youngest teams across Europe

Issue number 195 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks top division clubs from 31 European associations according to the average age of line-ups fielded since the start of the current season. The lowest figure overall was recorded for the Ukrainian side Stal Kamianske (21.7 years), while the youngest team at big-5 league level so far is LOSC Lille (22.9 years).

In the top five positions of the rankings also are NAC Breda, Lokomotiva Zagreb, AS Tren?ín and FC Nordsjælland. Fifteen clubs from the five major European leagues are in the top 100: seven from Bundesliga (Leipzig, Leverkusen, Freiburg, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart, Hamburg and Köln), six from Ligue 1 (Lille, Rennes, Toulouse, Bordeaux, St-Etienne and Lyon), one from Italy (Milan) and one from Spain (Valencia).

The youngest English Premier League team, Newcastle United, is only ranked 113th out of the 466 clubs included in the analysis. The data for all of the teams is available in the freshly updated version of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas. More than 50,000 internauts passionate about football have already visited this unique tool.

The CIES Football Observatory innovates with brand new transfer value widget

The CIES Football Observatory is proud to announce the launching of its latest innovation: a widget allowing anyone to follow the evolution of the transfer value of players from the big-5 leagues. Freely available to all, this new tool also allows users to compare transfer value trends between different footballers.

The widget is a new step in the popularisation of the research work carried out by the CIES Football Observatory. Transfer values are estimated according to an algorithm exclusively developed by the Observatory’s academic team. A research note on the methodology used is available here.

Through the widget, the goal is to increase the digital presence of the CIES Football Observatory. Within this context, collaborations with mainstream media are considered. In parallel, we spare no effort to enrich contents available on our website. Stay in touch!

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Manchester City has the costliest squad in football history

Manchester City invested a record value of €853 million in transfer fees to assemble its current squad. This value is €850 million for Paris St-Germain and €784 million for previous record holder Manchester United. The data for all big-5 league teams is available in issue number 194 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

Manchester City’s total transfer fee expenditure to make up its squad went up by €242m compared to September 2016. The increase was even stronger for Paris St-Germain: +€395m (including the €180m investment for Mbappé). The figure for Manchester United is “only” €66m higher than one year ago, while that of Champions League winners Real Madrid went down by €138m.

The six biggest English teams are in the top ten positions of the rankings. The aggregated values per league are €5.7bn for the Premier League (on average €287m per team, +28% compared to previous year), €2.4bn for the Serie A (€122m per team, +26%), €2.2bn for the Liga (€110m per team, +9%), as well as €1.9bn for the Bundesliga (€107m per team, +19%) and the Ligue 1 (€93m per team, +78%).

Balance sheets for transfer operations: from Monaco to Paris St-Germain

Issue number 193 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the financial assessments of paying fee transfers carried out by big-5 league clubs during the last summer window. In total, 40 big-5 league clubs out of 98 had a credit balance. The biggest net profit was recorded for Monaco: +€289 million. At the opposite end of the spectrum is Paris St-Germain: -€343 million.

Monaco received €394 million in transfer indemnities for squad members and reinvested €105 million in new signings. Among the ten clubs with the most positive balance are three teams from Italy (Sampdoria, Lazio and Fiorentina), two from England (Swansea and Arsenal), two from France (Monaco and Lyon), two from Germany (Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen), as well as one from Spain (Real Madrid).

Paris St-Germain invested €418 million (including add-ons) to recruit new players, while it only received €75 million in transfer fees for players under contract. Six out of the 10 teams with the most negative transfer balance are from the English Premier League (Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Brighton & Hove, Liverpool and Huddersfield). A deeper analysis on net monetary flows between leagues is available in the 27th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

Publication of the CIES Football Observatory transfer market report

The CIES Football Observatory took advantage of the summer break to strengthen its ability to deliver unique information to its growing audience. The first output is the brand new Monthly Report published today, which tracks the money invested in transfer indemnities by big-5 league clubs since 2010.

Transfer fees paid by big-5 league teams have strongly increased. For the fifth consecutive year, a record was set in 2017: €5.9 billion (+41% in comparison with the previous year). If we only take into account the summer transfers, the increase compared to 2016 was 38%: from €3.7 to €5.1 billion. These figures include conditional payments (add-ons), as well as sums for loans with an obligation to buy.

Over the summer of 2017, similar to preceding years, the Premier League clubs have spent the most: about €1.55 billion in fixed transfer fees and €220 million in conditional payments. On average, an English top division club invested €89 million to sign new players. In the other championships studied, this figure varies between €55 million (Serie A) and €34 million (Liga).

The spatial analysis of the sums invested by big-5 league teams during the summer of 2017 shows that most of the money remains within these championships: €3.7 billion (71% of the total). However, only 52% of paid transfers carried out by big-5 league clubs involved players under contract with teams from these competitions. This imbalance is due to the fact that the most expensive transfers occur between clubs in the big-5. The cases of Neymar, Mbappé and Dembélé are perfect examples of this situation.

Rather than call into question the usefulness of the transfer system, as argued by FIFPro notably, the CIES Football Observatory analysis makes a case for the reinforcement of redistribution mechanisms. An increase in indemnities paid to training clubs, as well as an augmentation and generalisation of solidarity contributions, such as those planned by FIFA for international transfers, would constitute concrete measures for improving the system.

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Transfer value update

The CIES Football Observatory is pleased to inform that the ratings module on its website presents the updated transfer values of all players in the five major European leagues. The most significant changes since June were recorded for full internationals, as well as for footballers transferred for big money to big clubs.

Among new full internationals, there are many German players such as Sandro Wagner, Kerem Demirbay, Lars Stindl, Marvin Plattenhardt, Diego Demme and Kevin Trapp. The transfer value of Jemerson (Monaco) went also up from €35m to €50m following his first cap with the Brazilian national A-team.

Signed for fees very close to CIES Football Observatory estimates, players such as Romelu Lukaku, Bernardo Silva, Alexandre Lacazette and Corentin Tolisso have now even greater values. The future trend will depend on their ability to establish themselves as key players in their new and more prestigious teams.

Interrupted as usually during the summer, the publication of our weekly posts and monthly reports will start again with the beginning of the 2017/18 season. In the meantime, we communicate on Twitter. Do not hesitate to follow us: @CIES_Football.

The FIGC marathon of innovation: European hackathon on football

The CIES Football Observatory is happy to promote the European Hackathon on Football. The event is organised by the Italian Football Federation (FIGC), in collaboration with the University of Trento and the Autonomous Province of Trento. It will be held on the 14th and 15th October 2017 in Trento (northern part of Italy).

The hackathon is a meeting point where virtuous high-tech people, people passionate about innovation and entrepreneurship (as well as football) gather and aggregate in order to create and submit to the evaluation of a jury of experts applied solutions and/or projects in the field of the “theme” of the contest: match analysis and community of FIGC members.

Parallel to the hackathon, a series of public events, conferences and meetings on innovation, technologies, football and sports will be organised. They will involve players, managers, sponsors, partners, communication experts and journalists. The CIES Football Observatory’s head and founder, Dr. Raffaele Poli, will participate as a guest speaker.

Participation is free but previous registration is needed. More information is available here.

New exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer value estimates

The CIES Football Observatory research team has developed a powerful approach to estimate on a scientific basis the transfer value of professional football players. Issue number 192 of the Weekly Post presents the list of the 110 big-5 league footballers with an estimated value of more than € 40 million. Barcelona’s Neymar tops the table ahead of Tottenham’s Dele Alli and Harry Kane.

The exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm is based on the thorough analysis of almost 2,000 paying fee transfers. The variables through which transfer values are modelled notably include the performance of both players and employer clubs, international status, contract, age and position. More information is available in the 16th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

The English Premier League is over-represented among footballers listed. The estimated transfer value of the tenth most expensive Premier League player is € 85 M. This figure is € 73 M for the Spanish Liga, € 51 M for the Italian Serie A, € 47 M for the German Bundesliga and € 40 M for the French Ligue 1. The youngest player in the rankings is the French prodigy Kylian Mbappé (€ 93 M), while the oldest is the evergreen Portuguese striker Cristiano Ronaldo (€ 112 M).

The ratings module on the CIES Football Observatory website presents the estimated transfer value for all big-5 league players. Deeper analysis is undertaken on a consultancy basis. More information is also published through the official CIES Football Observatory Twitter account. For further enquiries, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

First CIES Football Observatory report on women’s football

Women’s football is currently undergoing a welcome development. At the elite level, the process of professionalisation is well underway in several countries worldwide. Following in the footsteps of the CIES Football Observatory studies, Monthly Report number 26 analyses the composition of squads in five of the world’s most developed leagues: four European (Germany, Sweden, France and England), as well as the Women’s National Soccer League in the United States.

The report notably highlights that women’s football is generating more and more international movements. On the 1st June 2017, 274 footballers were expatriated in the 55 clubs analysed (5.1 per team). Only 5 clubs out of 55 did not field expatriate players. Conversely, expatriates played a majority of minutes in five teams: SC Sand, Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg in Germany, as well as Rosengård and Vittsjö in Sweden.

The study also underlines that the most successful women’s teams field almost exclusively players with international status. The highest values in absolute were measured at Champions League winners Olympique Lyonnais (97.7%) and Wolfsburg (97.4%). Full internationals also played more than 80% of match minutes at Rosengård, Bayern Munich, Paris St-Germain and Eskilstuna United.

While the general level of women’s football grows, the increase in the means at the disposal of the wealthiest clubs poses a problem in terms of competitive balance. The eventual creation of international leagues bringing together the richest teams is an option. However, this should not occur at the expense of the multiple actors having historically worked, and often struggled, so that the women’s game could progress and reach its current level.

Turnover: Chelsea versus Manchester United

Weekly Post number 191 of the CIES Football Observatory presents turnover strategies followed in domestic league matches of the 2016/17 season by clubs from 27 top division European leagues. Chelsea FC holds the record for the highest percentage of minutes played by the 11 most employed footballers: 85.5%. Conversely, Manchester United is among the 50 clubs with the highest turnover rate.

Many Champions League participants are part of the 50 clubs in which the 11 most fielded footballers played for the highest percentage of minutes: Tottenham, Napoli, Sporting Clube de Portugal, Monaco and Atlético Madrid. Europa League finalist Ajax also features in the list. This finding shows that it is possible to be successful both at domestic and European level without high turnover rates.

However, Manchester United followed a radically different strategy. José Mourinho’s team is among the 50 teams in the 27 leagues surveyed with the lowest percentage of minutes played by the 11 most fielded footballers: 62.8%. This reflects an unusually high level of changes in line-ups selected. In the future, more stability is probably needed to sustainably improve results.

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Stakhanovist players: Antoine Griezmann heads the rankings

Issue number 190 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks footballers from the five major European leagues according to the number of minutes played in official games since July 1st 2016. The French and Atlético Madrid star Antoine Griezmann tops the table ahead of Wilfred Ndidi (Genk, Leicester and Nigeria) and teammate Koke.

Apart from Griezmann, Ndidi and Koke, five other footballers played for more than 5,000 minutes: Danijel Subaši? (Monaco and Croatia), Kamil Glik (Monaco and Poland), Neymar (Barcelona and Brazil), Paul Pogba (Manchester United and France), as well as Marquinhos (Paris St-Germain and Brazil).

In the top 100 positions of the rankings are ten players of the two Champions League finalist teams: five from Juventus (Higuaín, Buffon, Bonucci, Mandžuki? and Khedira) and five from Real Madrid (Kroos, Ronaldo, Ramos, Marcelo and Navas). While some fatigue certainly exists, it should not prevent players from producing an enjoyable show on Saturday.

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