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New Football Observatory study unveils crisis of youth training in Europe

Following UEFA’s definition, club-trained players are footballers who have been for at least three seasons between the ages of 15 and 21 in their employer team. The relative presence of this category of players in squads has steadily decreased from 23.1% in 2009 to only 19.7% in 2015. Club-trained footballers still accounted for more than one fifth of squad members in 2014: 21.0%.

This finding reflects the lesser tendency of European top division clubs to give their chance to players from their youth academy. As a consequence, the average age of footballers in the 31 top division leagues surveyed has reached a new record high: 26.0 years. The decrease in the proportion of club-trained players also reflects the greater mobility of footballers from their youngest age.

The Report also presents the rankings of clubs who trained the most players active in the leagues surveyed. At the top of the overall table is Partizan Belgrade (78 players trained), followed by Ajax Amsterdam (75 players). FC Barcelona heads the ranking of clubs who trained the most players under contract with big-5 league teams (44 players), ahead of Olympique Lyonnais (35 players) and Real Madrid (34 players). All data is available in issue number 125 of the Big-5 Weekly Post.

Last but not least, the CIES Football Observatory is pleased to unveil a brand new version of its exclusive Digital Atlas on the demography of footballers in Europe. This unique tool presents a wide array of indicators allowing users to grasp the latest trends in the European football players’ labour market. The next Monthly Reports will further develop some of the exclusive information presented in the Digital Atlas.

The CIES Football Observatory warmly thanks its growing audience for the interest and positive feedback received. The authors of the Report - Drs Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson - are at the disposal of media at football.observatory@cies.ch.

The Football Observatory unveils best performing big-5 league players

The first position held by Otamendi in the centre back table is mainly related to his outstanding skills in the area of rigour (see explanation below). At full back level, Aurier performed particularly well from a recovery perspective. Cazorla outranks all defensive midfielders mainly thanks to his statistics in the area of distribution. Among attacking midfielders, Özil has no rivals in terms of chance creation. Finally, shooting is the key strength of Lewandowski compared to other forwards.

The rankings are based on a purely data-driven and objective methodology developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. The Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) considered measure players’ productivity in six complementary areas of the game. The final score is the sum of values measured in each area, weighted according to the importance of the latter for a given position. Only players fielded for at least 60% of domestic league minutes are included in the rankings.

A thorough presentation of the CIES Football Observatory approach for the technical analysis of performance is available in the fifth edition of the Monthly Report.

CIES Football Observatory KPIs

  • Rigour: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through effective duelling.
  • Recovery: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through proficient interception work.
  • Distribution: ability to keep a hold on the game through efficient passing.
  • Take on: ability to create dangerous situations by successfully challenging opponents.
  • Chance creation: ability to put teammates in a favourable position to strike.
  • Shooting: ability to take advantage of goal opportunities through accurate shooting.

Tottenham youngest team in the English Premier League

At second and third position in the English Premier League ranking are Liverpool (25.5 years) and Newcastle (25.6). In contrast, the average age on the pitch is particularly high at West Bromwich Albion (29.2) and Manchester City (28.5).

The oldest teams in the other big-5 leagues are Rayo Vallecano (29.0 years), Bastia (28.6), Darmstadt (28.1) and Chievo (30.7). The average per league varies between 26.3 years in the German Bundesliga and 27.5 years in the Italian Serie A.

The French top the table of big-5 league expatriates

The most numerous contingent of French expatriates is to be found in England. Since the start of the season, 40 players from France played in the English Premier League. However, French are well represented also in Italy (28 players), Spain (27 players), and, to a lesser extent, Germany (11 players, including Kingsley Coman who also played in Serie A).

The analysis of countries with the most representatives in foreign leagues at worldwide level is available in the eighth edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch

New study: exporting countries in world football

While Brazil is the most represented origin among foreigners both in Europe (1,137 players) and in Asia (437 players), Argentina is the main exporting country at Latin American level (511 players compared to only 124 Brazilians).

At worldwide level, the three nations with the most footballers in foreign professional and semi-professional clubs are Brazil (1,784 players), Argentina (929 players) and France (758 players). These three nationalities alone account for almost 20% of foreigners present on a global level.

No South American country is among the top five destinations of Brazilians. Conversely, three of the five main destinations of Argentineans are to be found in South America. Similarly, the main countries to which French players migrate are geographically close to the home country.

The last chapter of the study analyses four leagues in the United States, where football is undergoing considerable development. The Report shows the marked diversification of international recruitment of US clubs. It also predicts that American teams will increasingly challenge European, Asian and South American clubs in the race for new talent.

For more information or to contact the authors of the study, please write to football.observatory@cies.ch

Money League: Chelsea thirteen positions below expected ranking

Conversely, the most positive difference so far between financial and sporting ranking in the English Premier League was measured for Leicester City: +12. Claudio Ranieri’s team is in fifth position, while only three EPL clubs invested less money to assemble the squad.

In the other big-5 leagues, the teams that over-achieved the most with respect to transfer investments are Eibar (+10 positions), Angers (+17), Ingolstadt (+11) and Chievo (+8).

On the contrary, the following teams are currently ranked well below the position where their financial power should have allowed them to be: Real Sociedad (-11 positions), Marseille (-13), Stuttgart (-8) and Juventus (-11).

Best performing players: current and future stars

At the top of the absolute tables in the English Premier League are Laurent Koscielny (Arsenal) for centre backs, Cédric Soares (Southampton) for full backs, Santi Cazorla (Arsenal) for defensive midfielders, Mesut Özil (Arsenal) for attacking midfielders and Riyad Mahrez (Leicester) for forwards.

The analysis relies on data provided by OptaPro and takes into account performance in six key areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting. A detailed presentation of the exclusive approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team is available in issue number 5 of the Monthly Report.

According to this approach, the best performing U21 footballers in the English Premier League so far have been Chancel Mbemba (Newcastle) for centre backs, Jordan Amavi (Aston Villa) for full backs, Emre Can (Liverpool) for defensive midfielders, Nathan Redmond (Norwich) for attacking midfielders and Raheem Sterling (Manchester City) for forwards.

The top 15 list per league and position is updated on a weekly basis on the CIES Football Observatory website. More information is available at football.observatory@cies.ch.

Mapping transfer fees in football: who got the money?

Clubs participating in the Champions League are over-represented in the top positions of the ranking of clubs having generated the most incomes in transferring players to other teams. Among the 15 top ranked clubs, only Monaco, Liverpool and Aston Villa did not qualify for the group stage of the 2015/16 Champions League. This finding shows the key importance to obtain top level results to be able to transfer players for significant amounts of money.

However, the majority of clubs having generated the most incomes on the transfer market are also among teams who invested the most for new signings (see issue number 118 of the CIES Football Observatory Big-5 Weekly Post). Consequently, among the 15 clubs with the most positive net transfer spend, only Wolfsburg and Sevilla take part in the group stage of the current Champions League edition.

Among the 15 clubs with the most negative net transfer spend, we find some of the wealthiest European clubs (Manchester City, Paris St-Germain, Manchester United, Real Madrid, etc.), as well as not-so-rich teams who heavily invested on the transfer market in the hope of improving results, such as Milan AC, Newcastle United, West Bromwich Albion, Bologna, Sunderland and Crystal Palace.

Record high: more than 3 billion € invested on new players

On average, during the last three summer transfer windows (2013-2015), the transfer expenditure of big-5 league clubs was 68% greater than in the three previous ones (2010-2012). The biggest increase was recorded at English Premier League level: +98%.

Manchester City tops the table for summer 2015 with a transfer expenditure of 230 million €, ahead of Manchester United (189 million €) and Juventus (137 million €). The transfer expenditure of English clubs (1.35 billion €, new record high) accounted for 41% of total big-5 league investments.

Manchester City also heads the ranking of transfer fees invested since July 2010: 784 million €. In second and third position are two other English clubs: Chelsea (711 million €) and Manchester United (640 million €). The first non-English club is French side Paris St-Germain (615 million €).

From Martial to Sterling: most over- and under-paid players

On average, big-5 league players transferred for money during last summer were paid 23% more than footballers with similar characteristics transferred during the five previous years. If we add this percentage to the transfer values estimated by the CIES Football Observatory at the end of the 2014/15 season on the basis of its exclusive econometric model, we obtain figures taking inflation into account.

The comparison of these values with fees paid by clubs allows us to assess transfers from an economic perspective. This analysis is carried out without considering add-on fees related to the future performance of players, nor sell-on fees negotiated on future transfers. Players on loan with buy-out clauses were not included.

This study indicates that the most under-paid player in absolute terms with respect to the sums invested in the recent past for footballers with similar characteristics was Anthony Martial by Manchester United (+27.9 million €, not including add-ons), followed by Kevin de Bruyne by Manchester City (+26.6 million €) and Christian Benteke by Liverpool (+19.6 million €).

At the opposite end of the table, the most under-paid players according to the CIES Football Observatory analysis were Raheem Sterling by Manchester City (-32.1 million €), Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa by Olympique Lyonnais (-11.9 million €) and Robin van Persie by Fenerbahçe (-11.4 million €).

More information is available on the CIES Football Observatory website or on request at football.observatory@cies.ch. For a detailed presentation of the methodology used to estimate the transfer value of players, please refer to issue number 6 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

Who will win the big-5 league titles?

In total, big-5 league teams have spent a record figure of 9.3 billion euro to sign current squad members. The gaps between clubs are tremendous: from 587 million for Real Madrid to less than one million for Carpi, Frosinone, GFCO Ajaccio, Rayo Vallecano and Sporting Gijón.

From the perspective of transfer market investments, one would expect that Real Madrid, Manchester City, Paris St-Germain, Bayern Munich and Juventus win the title in their respective leagues. Conversely, at English Premier League level, Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich should face relegation just one year after promotion.

For a detailed analysis of the link between transfer expenditure and success, refer to issue number 3 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

The CIES Football Observatory unveils its updated approach for sustainable success

Since 2005, the Football Observatory research group within the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) has developed pioneering data analysis to understand the logics of success in football. This report unveils the key findings related to the four main dimensions of sustainable squad management: team chemistry, demographic structure, performance analysis and transfer policy.

Professional clubs, football academies and leagues regularly take advantage of the exclusive expertise gathered within the CIES Football Observatory to increase their competitiveness. The innovative research work carried out also has an educational vocation by helping football stakeholders, including media and fans, to develop original thinking on the beautiful game.

Furthermore, the CIES Football Observatory academic team is pleased to disclose its player performance rankings for the five major European championships. The top 15 list per position and league will be updated on a weekly basis throughout the season. To know more about the methodology used, see Monthly Report number 5.

For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

Record high of expatriates in the best ranked teams

During last season, the percentage of minutes played by club-trained footballers reached a new record low: 14.3%. In the English Premier League, players who spent at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21 in their employer club never played a fewer percentage of minutes than in 2014/15: 10.2%. The minimal level of minutes played by club-trained footballers was recorded in Italy: 8.5%.

The percentage of minutes played by expatriates is stable at around 46%. However, the percentage of players who grew up in a different country than that of their employer club reached a new record high among the five best ranked teams per league: 59.6%. This percentage was never as high as in 2014/15 in three leagues out of five: England (77.1%), Spain (57.1%) and Germany (53.1%). It is also very high in the Italian Serie A: 71.4%.

Transfer value: Messi, the 280 million euro man

The CIES Football Observatory is also proud to be able to present for the first time the probabilities of fee paying transfers for big-5 league players. This was a major achievement of the research work carried out by our academic team during the last year. Many expensive footballers are to be found in the top-100 of this ranking, such as Raheem Sterling, Alexis Sánchez, Antoine Griezmann, Harry Kane and Philippe Coutinho.

More information is available in issue number 115 of the Big-5 Weekly Post (the last before the summer break). The full data is presented in the sixth edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. This publication also explains the unique methodology developed by our research team to estimate both transfer values and transfer probabilities of football players.

Assessment of the big-5 league predictions

U21 players: Premier League at the bottom of the table

The clubs per league having the most relied on U21 players are Monaco (34.6%), Valencia (25.5%), Empoli (23.3%), Bayer Leverkusen (23.1%) and Liverpool (19.8%). Conversely, U21 footballers played less than 2% of minutes in 27 teams out of 98, including at Champions League finalists Barcelona and Juventus.

All the data is available in issue number 113 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

Performance analysis : best clubs and players of the season

For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

The power of youth: age of first-team inclusion

Best performing U23 players: Phil Jones & Co

At the head of the tables per position are Phil Jones (Manchester United) for centre backs, Layvin Kurzawa (Monaco) for full backs, Marco Verratti (Paris St-Germain) for defensive midfielders, Isco Alarcón (Real Madrid) for attacking midfielders and Felipe Anderson (Lazio) for forwards.

In the top-3 positions of the rankings are not only well known players such as Raphaël Varane (Real Madrid), David Alaba (Bayern Munich) or Paul Pogba (Juventus), but also less renowned talents such as José Giménez (Atlético Madrid), Ricardo Rodríguez (Wolfsburg), Granit Xhaka (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Bernardo Silva (Monaco) and Clinton N’Jie (Lyon).

The rankings are based on the CIES Football Observatory exclusive Key performance indicators in the following areas of the game:

  • Shooting: ability to take advantage of goal opportunities through accurate shooting.
  • Chance creation: ability to put teammates in a favourable position to strike.
  • Take on: ability to create dangerous situations by successfully challenging opponents.
  • Distribution: ability to keep a hold on the game through efficient passing.
  • Recovery: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through proficient interception work.
  • Rigour: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through robust duelling.

Competitive balance: best teams more dominant than ever

Teams of the moment: Borussia Dortmund tops the table

New Monthly Report: who will win the Champions League?

Player development: the big-5 leagues in a dependant situation

Players of the moment: Messi top, Ronaldo down

Big-5 Weekly Post on full internationals

New Monthly Report: transfer expenditure and results

The evolution noted for the five major European leagues since 2009/10 reflects a strong increase in the sums invested in transfer fees. While the 98 big-5 league teams spent €6.9 billion to recruit players present in their squad in 2009/10 (€70.4 million per club), this figure increased to €8.6 billion in 2014/15 (€87.7 million per club). In six seasons, the average “cost” of a squad from a transfer expenditure perspective increased by 24.5%.

Between 2009 and 2014, the fees invested in signing squad members increased particularly in the English Premier League: €2.43 to €3.43 billion (€171 million per club). The amount spent by Premier League clubs in comparison with the total for the big-5 leagues went from 35% in 2009/10 to 40% in 2014/15. The explosion of revenues from the sale of TV-rights for the period 2016-2019 will undoubtedly reinforce this process.

The minimum threshold of investments in transfer fees above which it is reasonable to expect a podium finish has strongly increased. At big-5 level, the clubs having ranked in the top three places in the 2009/10 season spent on average €189 million in signing squad members. This figure has never been as high as in the current season: €278 million (+47%). Issue number 103 of the CIES Football Observatory Big-Weekly Post also presents the data by position.

The analysis of the recipients of sums invested by big-5 league clubs in signing squad members shows that the redistributive power of the transfer market is limited. Between 2009/10 and 2014/15, 67% of transfer fees were paid out to other teams participating in the five major European championships. A record figure was incidentally measured for the last two transfer windows: 70.5%.

With a view to equality and a wish to improve competitive balance, it would be therefore useful to consider what reforms are necessary to the transfer system so as to promote solidarity. An efficient measure would be to entitle each team in which a player has passed through to a compensation for each fee paying transfer taking place over the course of the player’s professional career on a pro rata basis to the number of official matches played at the club.

We kindly invite you to read the Report to know more about this proposal.

Most profitable youth academies: Southampton tops the table

At league level, current French Ligue 1 clubs generated the most transfer fees for youth academy players (292 million €). At the bottom end of the table is Italian Serie A. This finding reflects the low level of club-trained players in Italian top division clubs (see here).

Fees received by Southampton for the transfer of Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw and Calum Chambers represent almost 40% of the total incomes of current Premier League clubs for the transfer of club-trained footballers during the last three seasons.

Southampton is an outstanding example of how youth training can constitute a key competitive advantage both sportingly and economically even in the richest league of the world.

Luis Suárez among the best signings of the season

At the head of the other rankings are Dejan Lovren (Liverpool) for rigour, Walter Gargano (Napoli) for recovery, Xabi Alonso (Bayern Munich) for distribution, Karim Bellarabi (Bayer Leverkusen) for take on and Diego Costa (Chelsea) for shooting.

The following big-5 league rookies are to be found in the top 12 positions for five out of the six areas of play taken into account:

Rigour

  • Michael Keane (Burnley)
  • Sergi Gómez (Celta de Vigo)
  • Emiliano Velázquez (Getafe)
  • Jin-Su Kim (Hoffenheim)
  • Nicolás Otamendi (Valencia)
  • Giancarlo González (Palermo)
  • Marcos Rojo (Manchester United)

Recovery

  • Wendell Nascimento (Bayer Leverkusen)
  • Yeltsin Tejeda (Evian)
  • Daley Blind (Manchester United)

Take on

  • Sadio Mané (Southampton)
  • Lucas Vázquez (Espanyol)

Chance creation

  • Valentin Stocker (Hertha Berlin)
  • Dušan Tadi? (Southampton)

Shooting

  • Luciano Vietto (Villarreal)
  • Federico Piovaccari (Eibar)
  • Diafra Sakho (West Ham)

Please refer to this paper if you want to know more about the exclusive approach of the CIES Football Observatory for sustainable success.

Ajax tops the European list of the most training orientated clubs

At the head of the table is Ajax Amsterdam. The Dutch team has trained 77 players employed by the 468 teams of the 31 leagues included in the analysis. At second and third place are Partizan Belgrade (74 players) and Barcelona (57). This data confirms the outstanding know-how of these clubs in the training of youth players.

France is the most represented national association in the top 100 positions of the table: 15 clubs. This is seven more than the second and third most represented countries: Spain and the Netherlands. Conversely, there are no Turkish, Cypriot, Romanian and Norwegian teams in the top 100.

If you want to know more about the European football players’ labour market, you are kindly invited to consult our online Digital Atlas. Thank you for your interest!

CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report: tomorrow’s stars

Thanks to this analysis we are able to highlight not only well-known players such as Luke Shaw, Raheem Sterling, Romelu Lukaku or Thibaut Courtois, but also footballers not yet taking part in the big-5 leagues but of whom we will surely hear much about in the future such as, among others, Tonny Vilhena, Jetro Willems, Pione Sisto or Georgi Milanov.

The notion of experience capital refers to games played in adult championships up until 23 years of age. We attribute different values to matches according to an exclusive classification method that takes into account the performance of national association representatives in European club competitions, the division of the employer club in the domestic league and results achieved for matches played.

The method of experience capital allows clubs to optimise their approach regarding transfers by considerably reducing the risks inherent in such operations, from both the sporting and economic point of view. Our research team is at the service of clubs interested in finding out more about the practical modalities of implementing a talent spotting system of this kind.

The report also emphasises the crucial role of leagues outside the big-5 in the career development of players. Among footballers aged 23 or over currently under contract with big-5 league clubs, only 12% have always played in teams taking part in the top European championships between the start of the professional career and their 23rd birthday.

Issue number 99 of the Big-5 Weekly Post presents the highest capital experience values for U20, U21, U22 and U23 players for both the five major European championships and the remaining 26 leagues surveyed.

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