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CIES Football Observatory exclusive transfer analysis

Buy-out clauses or options to buy existed for the five most over-paid players. This certainly helped the seller teams in the negotiations: Villarreal for Gabriel Paulista, Swansea for Wilfried Bony and Fiorentina for Juan Cuadrado.

The top level performances of Bernardo Silva and Ryan Bertrand explain the activation of the option to buy by Monaco, respectively Southampton. However, the current value of these players is well below the price paid.

Monaco and Southampton accepted to over-pay by considering the opportunities of development for the players concerned. This holds also true for Arsenal with regard to the signing of Gabriel Paulista. The three players have indeed the concrete possibility to become pillars of their national A-teams in the near future.

The cases of Wilfried Bony and Juan Cuadrado are different as they are already well established full internationals. They were primarily recruited within the context of the race for the Premier League title.

While Chelsea was also able to transfer other players – André Schürrle and Ryan Bertrand – at a higher price than expected, Manchester City was not able to do so. Chelsea could probably have got more from the permanent move of Fernando Torres. Nevertheless, his permanent move allowed the London club to save money for his salary.

The over-representation of deals between Italian clubs among the most under-paid transfers – Manolo Gabbiadini, Alfred Duncan, Daniele Gastaldello, Luca Antonelli and Gabriel Paletta – reflects the deep economic crisis of professional football in the country.

Fore more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch

Best performing U23 players: from Gímenez to Neymar

At the top of the rankings per area of the game are José Gímenez (Atlético Madrid) for rigour, Layvin Kurzawa (Monaco) for recovery, Marco Verratti (Paris St-Germain) for distribution, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal) for take on, Isco Alarcón (Real Madrid) for chance creation and Neymar Júnior (Barcelona) for shooting.

Only two players are in the top 12 positions in three different rankings: Paulo Dybala (Palermo) for take on, chance creation and shooting, as well as Paul Pogba (Juventus) for distribution, take on and shooting. The following players are in the top 12 in two areas of the game:

  • José Gímenez (Atlético Madrid)
  • Marquinhos Aoás (Paris St-Germain)
  • Phil Jones (Manchester United)
  • Layvin Kurzawa (Monaco)
  • Marc Stendera (Eintracht Frankfurt)
  • Marco Verratti (Paris St-Germain)
  • Lucas Moura (Paris St-Germain)
  • Isco Alarcón (Real Madrid)
  • Koke Resurreción (Atlético Madrid)
  • Raheem Sterling (Liverpool)
  • Nabil Fekir (Olympique Lyonnais)
  • Paul-Georges Ntep (Stade Rennais)
  • Neymar Júnior (Barcelona)

The full tables are to be found here. More information is available at football.observatory@cies.ch

CIES Football Observatory Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

  • Shooting: ability to take advantage of goal opportunities through accurate shooting
  • Chance creation: ability to put teammates in a good position to score
  • Take on: ability to create dangerous situations by successfully challenging opponents
  • Distribution: ability to keep a hold on the game through efficient passing
  • Recovery: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through proficient interception work
  • Rigour: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through robust duelling

Spanish clubs outrank rivals in shooting efficiency

The top ranked teams in the remaining big-5 leagues are Olympique Lyonnais (6.7 shots per goal, 5th place), Eintracht Frankfurt (6.9, 7th), Chelsea (7.0, 10th) and Palermo (7.5, 12th).

Conversely, at the bottom end of the table are Hambourg (22.9), Aston Villa (20.9), Torino (17.1), Granada (16.9) and LOSC Lille (15.2). These figures both reflect a lack of efficiency and the difficulty in taking up a favourable position to shoot. As a matter of example, Aston Villa scored only two goals out of 109 attempts in second halves!

All these statistics were calculated from data provided by our partners Opta Pro. They are to be found here.

Real Madrid heads the table for the percentage of time leading

Juventus also led for a majority of domestic league minutes (52.0%). This figure was below 40% for Paris St-Germain (39.8%), Barcelona (39.6%) and Manchester City 38.8%). The record low at big-5 league level was recorded for Sunderland (10.3%). This does not augur well for the Black Cats.

The figures for the 98 big-5 league clubs are to be found here.

First Monthly Report: club instability and its consequences

The report indicates that stability gives clubs a competitive advantage over rival teams, be it on a sporting level (better medium and long-term results) or an economic one (a greater capacity to launch careers of club-trained players and generating revenues through their transfer).

Stability indicators such as the average length of stay of players in their club or the percentage of new signings in the squad thus show their true worth when judging the pertinence of management strategies instigated by club managers.

Well-informed fans of the most unstable teams have good reason to be anxious. In order to protect football from the bad practices of certain managers, to promote training and to increase team competitiveness, it would thus be timely to consider the introduction of a limitation on the number of transfers allowed.

True to its reputation, our research group is at the disposal of football stakeholders to analyse such a scenario. This would notably be about defining more precisely the boundaries of such a limitation on transfers in order to attain the desired goals, without interfering with the free movement of players or provoking a distortion of the market with regard to the upholding of the principle of proportionality.

Issue number 94 of the Big-5 Weekly Post also deals with the subject of club stability by presenting the date of arrival of current squad members for clubs ranked in first and last position in the table of their respective league. This analysis also allows us to highlight the importance of squad stability for sustainable success.

Top transfer values: Messi outranks Ronaldo and Hazard

With the exception of Raheem Sterling, in the top 10 positions of the ranking are only players under contract with teams that are still competing in the Champions League:

  • Lionel Messi (Barcelona) : 220 million €
  • Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) : 133 million €
  • Eden Hazard (Chelsea) : 99 million €
  • Diego Costa (Chelsea) : 84 million €
  • Paul Pogba (Juventus) : 72 million €
  • Sergio Agüero (Manchester City) : 65 million €
  • Raheem Sterling (Liverpool) : 63 million €
  • Francesc Fàbregas (Chelsea) : 62 million €
  • Alexis Sánchez (Arsenal) : 61 million €
  • Gareth Bale (Real Madrid) : 60 million €

The club with the most representatives in the top 100 of the table is Spanish giant and Champions League title holder Real Madrid:

  • Cristiano Ronaldo: 2nd, 133 million €
  • Gareth Bale: 10th, 60 million €
  • James Rodríguez: 15th, 50 million €
  • Isco Alarcón: 17th, 45 million €
  • Karim Benzema: 21st, 43 million €
  • Toni Kroos: 23rd, 41 million €
  • Luka Modri?: 27th, 37 million €
  • Sergio Ramos: 40th, 33 million €
  • Daniel Carvajal: 68th, 25 million €
  • Raphaël Varane: 87th, 23 million €
  • Marcelo Vieira: 94th, 22 million €

The transfer values are calculated using an exclusive algorithm developed on the basis of over 1,500 fee paying transfers occurred since 2009. The variables included in our exclusive econometric model refer to player performances (matches, goals, dribbles, etc.), their characteristics (age, position, contract duration, etc.), as well as competition level and results achieved by their teams (clubs and national sides).

For more information, you are kindly invited to read chapter four of this paper on the CIES Football Observatory’s approach for sustainable success.

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