Issue number 513 of the CIES Football Observatory’s Weekly Post presents the 100 clubs worldwide having committed the most money in transfer fees (including add-ons regardless of actual payment) to recruit their current first team squad players. Chelsea tops the list with a total investment of €1,314 million, of which €134 million for the most expensive signing (Moisés Caicedo, 10%).

Manchester City (€1,128 million) and Manchester United (€1,071m) round up the podium, followed by two other English clubs : Liverpool (€1,065m) and Arsenal (€1,001m). No club outside England has invested more than one billion to assemble its squad, with a maximum of €873 million for Champions League title holders Paris St-Germain (7th, just ahead of Real Madrid). Al-Hilal tops the rankings for non-European clubs (€451m, 19th).

Compared to the same date last year, the amounts committed by the ten clubs having invested the most in transfer fees to build their current first team squads increased by 15% (from 8.44 to 9.67 billion) and those of the top 100 by 12% (from 26.23 to 29.42 billion). This evolution is directly linked to the record transfer spending registered in 2025, as illustrated in this video.

>>> Top 100 of costliest squads

>>> Top valued players per club in 67 leagues as per CIES Football Observatory statistical model

>>> New Prospect Sheet with Impect: Alvaro Montoro

The 512th Weekly Post of the CIES Football Observatory presents the results of a statistical model forecasting the probability of winning the title for clubs in 29 leagues. The model combines sporting variables (Impect data on passes in the opponent’s half), economic variables (transfer fees invested to recruit players fielded) and demographic variables (players’ last year minutes and their matches’ sporting level).

The highest likelihood in absolute terms was recorded for Serbia’s side Crvena Zvezda (76.2%), followed by France’s Paris St-Germain (73.0%) and South Africa’s Mamelodi Sundowns (70.6%). Conversely, among the 30 leagues analysed, the most open are the UAE Pro League (at most 23.5% chance of success for Shabab Al Ahli), the Italian Serie A (25.6% for Inter), and the Dutch Eredivisie (28.6% for Feyenoord).

In the Premier League, Liverpool has the highest probability of being crowned champions again (28.9%), ahead of Arsenal (18.8%) and Chelsea (16.2%). In La Liga, Real Madrid are the favourites (40.6% chance of winning the league), ahead of Barcelona (29.6%) and Atlético Madrid (22.1%). In Serie A, the top three are Inter (25.6%), Juventus (18.2%), and Napoli (17.4%). In Bundesliga, Bayern Munich stands out with 61.4%, ahead of Borussia Dortmund (8.8%).

>>> Full study

The 511th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the financial results of transfer operations carried out in 2025. In total, clubs around the world invested approximately €14.2 billion, 14% more than the previous record set in 2023. This Post presents the balance sheets for the 121 teams worldwide involved in incoming or outgoing transactions totalling more than €50 million overall.

With around €500 million invested and €255 million received (including add-ons and sell-ons), Liverpool tops the rankings in terms of fees generated (€755m). Two other English teams complete the podium: Chelsea (€754m) and, further behind, Manchester City (€556m). In terms of net spending, the most negative balances were also recorded for English clubs : Manchester City (-€369 million), Arsenal (-€366m) and Liverpool (-€245m).

In contrast, three French Ligue 1 teams totalled the most positive net spending for transactions completed in 2025 : RC Lens (+€113m), Olympique Lyonnais (+€108m) and Monaco (+€95m). In terms of the number of fee-paying transfers, whether for revenue or expenditure, the most active clubs were AC Milan (37 deals), Juventus (33) and Chelsea (32).

>>> Full data analysis

The 510th Football Observatory’s Weekly Post presents the 200 footballers worldwide who have not yet turned 20 with the best CIES ratings for matches played in 2025. The score is the average of two values : a performance index calculated from the data exclusively collected by our partners Impect, and an experience index taking into account minutes played, weighted by the sporting level of the matches.

FC Barcelona’s prodigy Lamine Yamal tops the rankings with a CIES ratings of 97.7. The Spaniard has the highest value in terms of both performance and experience indices. He outranks his compatriot and teammate Pau Cubarsí, while PSG’s French international Warren Zaïre-Emery completes the podium. Roger Fernandes (SC Braga) is the highest-ranked footballer not playing in the big-5, just ahead of Geovany Quenda (Sporting CP, already signed by Chelsea).

The highest value for a footballer playing outside Europe was recorded for Elías Montiel (CF Pachuca). The Mexican ranks ahead of Brazilian Rayan Vitor (Vasco da Gama) and Argentine Santino Andino (Godoy Cruz). No fewer than 48 leagues are represented in the top 200. The three youngest players listed are Mexico’s Gilberto Mora (Club Tijuana), Poland’s Oskar Pietuszewski (Jagiellonia Bialystok) and Serbia’s Vasilije Novičić (IMT Belgrade).

>>> Top 200

More information on the performance index.

More information on the experience index.

The fourth Prospect Sheet from the CIES Football Observatory, in partnership with Impect, presents Brazilian striker Rayan Vitor, a product of Vasco da Gama, the club where he has played since the age of six. At just 19 years old, he is already in his third season at professional level, with a record nine goals in all competitions in 2025.

A technically skilled left-footed player who is fast, powerful, and elegant, Rayan primarily plays as a right winger, but can perform well in any attacking position. He is particularly active at finishing level, but also makes significant contributions in terms of creating chances and aerial play (he is 185cm tall).

Despite a contract expiring at the end of 2026, his transfer value estimated by the CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model is between €19.6 and €25.3 million, depending on the financial strength of the potential buyer club. A possible extension would significantly increase this amount. Without renewal, however, his value is likely to decrease, even if he continues to perform well.

>>> Full Rayan’s profile

>>> The other profiles published

The third Prospect Sheet compiled by the CIES Football Observatory in collaboration with Impect highlights a young centre back with a great future: Luka Vušković. Aged just 18.4, the Croatian has already played two full seasons as a professional between his training club Hajduk Split, Polish side Radomiak Radom and Belgian side Westerlo.

His last season in Belgium was particularly successful, with 36 Pro League games and no fewer than 7 goals. His performances earned him a move to his parent club Tottenham Hotspur. Already estimated at €40 million by the CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model, his transfer value is destined to rise with every game played in the Premier League.

From a technical point of view, Luka Vušković has the profile of an aerial center back with attacking ability, his power being combined with outstanding technical quality. Players with similar characteristics quoted in the report include Germany’s Yann Aurel Bisseck, Ecuador’s Piero Hincapié and England’s Trevoh Chalobah.

>>> Full report