Issue number 350 of the Weekly Post presents the estimated squad transfer values of the 98 teams in the big-5. The figures were calculated on the basis of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The two teams having invested the most to sign their current players, Manchester City and Manchester United, also are at the top of those with the highest estimated squad value.

The Manchester teams would potentially collect more than €1.2 billion in transfer indemnities if they decided put all their current squad members on the market. Chelsea completes the podium with an estimated squad value of €946 million. Barcelona heads the rankings in the Spanish Liga (€896M), Bayern Munich in the German Bundesliga (€890M), Paris St-Germain in the French Ligue 1 (€808M) and Juventus in the Italian Serie A (€618M).

The estimated transfer value of all English Premier League players totals €8.9 billion (€445M per team on average). For the other leagues of the big-5, these figures are €5.3 billion for the Spanish Liga (€263M per club), €4.5 billion for the German Bundesliga (€251M), €4.4 billion for the Italian Serie A (€222M) and €3.4 billion for the French Ligue 1 (€172M). The individual estimates for all big-5 league players are available here.

Issue number 349 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 72 top divisions worldwide according to the average age of line-ups fielded in the current season and the percentage of minutes played by footballers who did not yet celebrate their 21st birthday. Monaco played so far with the youngest line-ups in the five major European leagues (24.3 years), while Bayer Leverkusen fielded U21 players for the highest percentage of minutes (24%).

With 23% of domestic league minutes played by U21 footballers, Barcelona ranks second in the big-5 ahead of four French Ligue 1 teams (Nice, Rennes, Marseille and Reims). Arsenal fielded so far the youngest line-ups in the English Premier League (25.0 years), while Spezia did so in the Italian Serie A (24.8 years) and Real Sociedad in the Spanish Liga (25.5 years). At the opposite end for each big-5 league are Lazio (30.3), Elche (29.9), Burnley (29.3), Bochum (28.7) and Clermont Foot (28.0).

The Latvian side FK Metta fielded the youngest line-ups overall (20.2 years on average) and the Armenians of BKMA Yerevan top the table for the highest percentage of domestic league minutes played by U21 footballers (79%). On the contrary, 89 of the 1’041 teams surveyed did not field any U21 player, among which Wolfsburg, Newcastle United, Atlético Madrid, Juventus, West Ham United, Rangers FC, Trabzonspor, Mamelodi Sundowns, Columbus Crew and Al Hilal SFC.

The 348th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the forecasts for the 2021/22 season at the level of the five major European leagues. The statistical model used for this purpose includes the players’ experience, transfer fee investments to assemble squads, as well as each team’s performance in the last 365 days.

With respect to 2020/21, the only change from a champions perspective is supposed to take place in Spain, with Real Madrid finishing ahead of Atlético and Barcelona. In England, the top four would be the same as last season, with Tottenham fifth ahead of Everton. Norwich City, Watford and Newcastle United are the main candidates for relegation.

In Italy, Inter Milan would outrank Napoli and city rivals Milan AC, with Juventus only sixth. Wolfsburg are the most likely runners-up in the German Bundesliga, ahead of Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen. In France, after Paris St-Germain, we would find the two Olympique (Marseille and Lyon in this order), while St-Etienne is a serious candidate for relegation.

Issue number 347 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 36 domestic leagues worldwide – 32 in Europe and 4 in the Americas – according to the number of passes made per match during current season as per data provided by our partners InStat. Paris St-Germain tops the rankings with an average of 738 passes.

In terms of the percentage of passes made in the opposite half, the Ukrainians of Shakhtar Donetsk are clearly at the top with an astonishing 68%, ahead of Manchester City (60%) and Ajax (57%). At the bottom of the rankings are Cosenza (22%) and two big-5 league teams: Norwich City and Elche (both 25%). As for the rate of accurate passes, the values vary between 92.6% for Paris St-Germain and Lazio, down to just 66.1% for Salernitana.

Regarding the four non-European leagues included in the sample, the highest figure for passes was measured for Flamengo (606, 87.7% of which accurate), while the lowest was observed for the Mexican side Atlético San Luis (336, 76.8%). Flamengo tops the table also for the proportion of passes in the opposite half alongside the Colombians of Deportes Quindío (50.3%). Another Brazilian team, Grêmio, complete the podium.

Issue number 346 of the Weekly Post presents the annual CIES Football Observatory analysis on big-5 league teams’ transfer fee spending to assemble their squads. With an estimated €1.08 billion invested to sign their current players (possible add-ons included), Manchester City remains at the top of the rankings. However, with respect to the start of the 2020/21 season, the gap with Manchester United went down by almost €140 million: from €192M to just about €58M.

The Manchester teams are the only ones to have spent over a billion euro in transfer indemnities to make up their current squads. Paris St-Germain complete the podium (€957M, + €69M with respect to the previous season), followed by Real Madrid (€787M, + €79M) and Chelsea (€780M, + €17M). Three further English Premier League teams (Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham), as well as Barcelona and Juventus, also paid more than €500 M in transfer fees to assemble their squads.

Per league, the average transfer expenditure per team to sign current squad members vary between €410 million for the English Premier League (with a minimum of about €87M for Norwich City) and €131M for both the French Ligue 1 (with a minimum for Clermont Foot) and the German Bundesliga (with a minimum for Bochum). The data for 2020/21 are available here.

The 67th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses from an economic perspective transfer operations carried out by big-5 league clubs during the last decade. It notably shows that the declining trend in investments after the health crisis has stopped. During the last transfer window, clubs from the five major European leagues spent 2% more than in the previous summer.

The study also shows that the pandemic has reinforced the domination of English Premier League clubs on the transfer market. The percentage of spending of the latter in comparison to the total big-5 league clubs’ transfer expenditure has increased from 35% between January 2012 and January 2020 to over 45% for the three post-COVID transfer windows.

The percentage of investments of the ten clubs having spent the most has also increased between these periods (from 33% to 35% per transfer window on average), as that of the ten most expensive transfers in comparison to the total (from 30% to 33%). All the indicators show a trend towards a concentration of spending from the richest clubs, in particular the wealthiest Premier League ones.

Six English teams are at the top of the rankings for the most negative post-pandemic net transfer spending, with Manchester United (-€217 million) ahead of Chelsea (-€205 M) and Arsenal (-€194 M). Since the COVID crisis, English top division clubs recorded a total deficit of almost two billion euro in transfer operations. Conversely, Spanish Liga teams registered a positive net balance (+€200 million).

Within the context of a general crisis, the English Premier League is the only competition where a majority of clubs invest massively on the transfer market. This allowed many teams from the other big-5 leagues, and, in a cascade effect, further down, to limit the impact of the health crisis and shows the importance of a global transfer system as it currently exists.

At the same time, the dependence of a growing number of clubs even within the wealthiest leagues on transfer incomes highlights the weakness of the current professional football economic system. The survival of more and more teams pivots indeed on the profits generated through the transfer of their best players. This situation is both financially dangerous and sportingly limiting.

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