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Transfer values: three Englishmen at the top

Three English talents are at the top of the biannual ranking of the greatest estimated transfer values for big-5 league players. According to the CIES Football Observatory algorithm, €190 million should be proposed to eventually convince Manchester City releasing Phil Foden. Two Manchester United’s players complete the podium: Mason Greenwood (€178 M) and the former leader Marcus Rashford (€159 M). The top 100 is available in the 341st Weekly Post.

Erling Haaland has the top estimated transfer value for players outside of the English Premier League. With respect to fees paid in the past, an investment of €155 M would be necessary to sign the Norwegian striker. With only one year of contract remaining, Kylian Mbappé (€118 M) is only 12th. Only three of the 20 big-5 league footballers with an estimated transfer value of more than €100 M are over 25 years of age: Bruno Fernandes, Timo Werner and Bernardo Silva.

Ederson Moraes (€62M) has the greatest estimated value for goalkeepers. His teammate at Manchester City Ruben Días (€114 M) tops the table for centre backs. Alphonso Davies (€131 M) from Bayern Munich is at the top for full backs and no other defensive midfielder has an estimated value as high as Barcelona’s Frenkie de Jong (€138 M). Transfer value intervals for all big-5 league footballers are available on the CIES Football Observatory website.

Euro 2020 : the favourites

National teams with players active in the most competitive clubs have greater chances to win trophies. Issue number 340 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares selections qualified from the perspective of the average sporting level of the teams of employment of players in squads. France tops the table ahead of Germany and Spain.

The Post also presents the average number of domestic league minutes played since September 1st 2020 by footballers from the 24 teams qualified. The maximal value was recorded for players of the English team (2,496 minutes), while the lowest one was measured for Ukraine (on average only 1,390 domestic league minutes per player).

With an average age of 24.9 years on June 1st, Turkey is the youngest team. It outranks England (25.2 years) and Wales (25.5 years). At the opposite end we find Sweden (29.2 years), followed by Belgium (29.1 years) and Slovakia (28.2 years). Born on the 16th October 2003, the Polish Kacper Kozlowski is the youngest player, while the Dutch goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg (22.09.1982) is the oldest.

The CIES Football Observatory’s best 11s for the big-5

With the five major European leagues ended, issue number 339 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the best line-ups for each championship. Players were selected according to the CIES performance index developed using data from OptaPro. Only footballers fielded for at least two thirds of domestic league minutes were included in the line-ups.

The formation selected for the English Premier League is a 4-2-1-3, with Bruno Fernandes as an attacking midfielder behind Harry Kane and besides Raheem Sterling and Mason Mount. The defense is made up of three Manchester City players (Ederson Moraes, Rubén Dias and João Cancelo), plus Victor Lindelöf and Andrew Robertson, with Rodri Hernández and Granit Xhaka as holding midfielders.

Some outstanding but not yet very known players are included in the line-ups for the remaining leagues. We notably find Ridle Baku (Wolfsburg) as right full-back in the German Bundesliga’s best 11, Aurélien Tchouaméni (Monaco), Farid Boulaya (Metz) and Romain Faivre (Stade Brestois) in the French Ligue 1 selection, Domenico Berardi (Sassuolo) in Italy and Javi Galan (Huesca) in Spain.

Foul frequency across Europe: Arsenal stands out

How frequently are teams fouling their opponents across Europe? Issue number 338 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post answers this question using the data provided by In Stat. At the level of the five major European leagues, the lowest foul frequency was measured for Arsenal (one foul every 10’44”), while Getafe is at the bottom end of the table (one foul every 5’44”).

Apart from Getafe, the highest foul frequency per big-5 league was measured for Hellas Verona (5’54”), FSV Mainz (6’30”), AS St-Etienne (7’10”) and Fulham FC (7’48”). Conversely, apart from Arsenal, the following teams committed the least fouls per minute: FC Barcelona (10’29”), Bayern Munich (10’19”), SSC Napoli (9’37”) and Nîmes Olympique (9’13”).

Out of all the 30 leagues surveyed, the extreme values were measured for FC Zenit (one foul every 12’34”) at one end and for two Greek teams at the other: PAS Giannina and Volos NFC (one foul every 4’51”). Eleven Greek top division clubs are among the 20 ones committing the most fouls per minute. Conversely, eight Russian teams are among the 20 with the lowest foul frequency.

Player migration report: Brazil chased by France

The CIES Football Observatory just disclosed a report analysing the presence of expatriate footballers in 145 leagues from 96 national associations worldwide. With 1,287 players abroad, Brazil tops the rankings for exporting countries. However, while the number of Brazilians went down by 14 compared to 2020, that of the second most represented nation abroad, France, increased by 124 to reach a new record high of 946.

On the 1st of May 2021, despite the pandemic, the number of expatriates grew by almost 5% in comparison to the same date in 2020: from 13,025 to 13,664. This increase in difficult circumstances confirms that the internationalisation of the footballers’ labour market is a well-established process. Expatriates represent 21.3% of players surveyed: from 26.4% in the domestic leagues of UEFA member associations down to only 8.9% in those of the CONMEBOL.

Overall, more than a fifth of expatriate players originate from Brazil, France and Argentina (21.4%). If we take the number of expatriates in comparison to the population resident in the country of origin, Iceland tops the rankings. There is one expatriate Icelandic footballer for every 5,584 inhabitants of the island. Montenegro is second (one expatriate for every 6,759 inhabitants), ahead of Croatia (10,792), Uruguay (11,889) and Serbia (15,742).

Access the Report for free! More exclusive data on the CIES Football Observatory’s Atlas of Migration.

Club-trained players’ employment across Europe

Issue number 337 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post reveals the employment rate of club-trained footballers (i.e. those having been for at least three seasons between the ages of 15 and 21 in their employer club) in teams from 27 top divisions of UEFA member associations. The highest percentage of minutes by club-trained players overall was recorded for the Slovakian side MŠK Žilina (61.5%), while RC Celta de Vigo (49.0%) has the greatest figure for big-5 league teams.

Home-grown footballers played a majority of domestic league minutes also at Dynamo Kyiv (60.2%), Sigma Olomouc (52.0%) and FC Slovácko (51.1%). At the level of the five major European championships, the highest employment rates after Celta Vigo were observed for two Basque sides: Real Sociedad (48.5%) and Athletic Club (40.6%). AS St-Étienne (35.0%), Brighton & Hove Albion FC (30.1%), FSV Mainz (25.0%) and Genoa CFC (20.9%) top the table in the remaining big-5 leagues.

Per championship, the values stretch from 26.8% in Slovenia to 4.7% in Portugal. Among the big-5 leagues, only the Spanish Liga (15.7%) is above the European average (13.2%), with a minimum of 5.0% in the Italian Serie A. English teams (12.6%) relied more on club-trained footballers than French (11.8%) and German (10.5%) ones. The CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas presents more exclusive statistics on the composition of squads across Europe.

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