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Youngest teams: Nordsjælland and Milan at the top

Issue number 310 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 67 top divisions worldwide according to the average age of line-ups fielded in the current season. The lowest figure among teams from countries in the top 20 positions of the UEFA club association ranking was measured for the Danish side Nordsjælland (22.7 years), ahead of Famalicão and Den Haag.

Despite the everlasting Zlatan Ibrahimovi?, Milan AC is the youngest team at the level of the five major European leagues (24.5 years). The Italian club outranks three French (Monaco, Reims and St-Étienne) and two German (Stuttgart, Leipzig) sides. Valencia is the youngest team in the Spanish Liga, while Brighton & Hove tops the table for the English Premier League.

Overall, FK Metta (Latvia) fielded the youngest line-ups (20.6 years on average), ahead of MŠK Žilina (Slovakia) and Grótta (Iceland). FC Nasaf (Uzbekistan) is the youngest team from a non-UEFA association (23.9 years). At the opposite end are Mushuc Runa (Ecuador, 31.6 years), Guaireña (Paraguay) and Anorthosis (Cyprus).

Fouls committed and suffered: European rankings

Issue number 309 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents players having committed and suffered the most fouls per minute in 33 European championships according to the data provided by our partners InStat. With one foul suffered every 20’39”, Neymar (PSG) heads the rankings for big-5 league footballers.

Yangel Herrera (Granada), Michail Antonio (West Ham), Rodrigo de Paul (Udinese) and Mark Uth (Schalke 04) top the tables for fouls suffered in the four other major European leagues. With regard to fouls committed, Fabien Lemoine (Lorient), Javi Galán (Huesca), Steven Alzate (Brighton & Hove), Nicolas Höfler (Freiburg) and Juraj Kucka (Parma) head the big-5 league rankings.

The 24-year-old English winger Jerell Sellars (Östersunds) leads the table for fouls suffered at the level of the 33 leagues overall, ahead of Diego Fabbrini (Dinamo Bucure?ti) and Jorge Díaz (Panetolikós). Conversely, the three players having so far committed the most fouls per minute are Kirill Vergeichik (Vitebsk), Mohamed El Makrini (Start) and Aleksandr Kokko (RoPS).

Costliest squads: Manchester City stands out

Issue number 308 of the Weekly Post presents the annual CIES Football Observatory analysis on the transfer fee expenditure to assemble the squad by big-5 league teams. As for 2019, Manchester City tops the table with an estimated 1.036 billion euro invested in transfer indemnities to sign their current players (including add-ons).

The figure recorded for Manchester City is €22M higher than that measured one year ago. While still inferior to that of their city rivals, the transfer expenditure to assemble the squad for Manchester United increased by €93M compared to October 2019: from €751 M to €844 M. With this increase, the Red Devils get closer to Paris St-Germain (€888 M, - €25 M) and overtake Real Madrid (€708M, - 194M). The biggest increase was recorded for Chelsea FC (€761M, +€198M).

Apart from Paris St-Germain and Real Madrid, only three other non-English teams are in the top 12: Barcelona (4th, €826M), Juventus (8th, €594M) and Atlético Madrid (11th, €483M). This finding confirms the financial supremacy of the Premier League. No team from this competition has invested less than €100 M in transfer indemnities to sign its current players. The European champions, Bayern Munich, only are 15th (€408M).

COVID only braked the inflation of players’ transfer prices

While the COVID pandemic has brought a considerable drop in the level of investments on the transfer market, footballers signed for money by big-5 league teams during the last transfer window were paid on average 6% more than players with similar characteristics during the summer 2019. The full CIES Football Observatory analysis is available in the 58th edition of the Monthly Report.

During the last transfer window, clubs from the five major European leagues invested 43% less in transfer indemnities to sign new players compared to summer 2019. The minimal fall was recorded in the English Premier League (from €1.65 to €1.49 billion, -10%), while the maximum was measured in the Spanish Liga (from €1.40 billion to €348 million, -75%).

The percentage of free transfers among all players taken on permanently by big-5 league clubs has significantly increased: from 26.2% to 32.2%. The percentage of players recruited on loan out of all signings went also up: from 23.1% to a record 30.0%. The COVID pandemic has also reinforced the tendency for teams to integrate conditional payments and sell-on percentages into the transactions.

The COVID crisis has strongly impacted the probability that players are signed for money. However, if a transfer takes place, the hypothesis according to which the price would have been negotiated to a lower level than before the pandemic does not hold true. In this regard, the most marking impact of the pandemic resides in the slowing down of the rampant inflation of players’ prices: from 15% on average per year between 2015 and 2019, down to 6% between 2019 and 2020.

Exclusive squad turnover world rankings revealed

Issue number 307 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks clubs having played at least 27 domestic league matches since September 2019 according to the number of players fielded. The sample is composed of 1,014 top or second division teams from 50 countries across the world. The Brazilian club Avaí FC tops the table with 59 players used, 37 more than the two teams having fielded the least footballers: Halmstad (Sweden) and Wellington Phoenix (New Zealand).

Five English clubs are in the top 20 of the most stable teams list: Burnley, Liverpool, Southampton, Brighton & Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion. In the first 20 positions also are two other big-5 league clubs: Olympique Marseille and Bayer Leverkusen. Conversely, with 42 players fielded over the last year, Genoa is the team from the five major European leagues with the greatest squad turnover, ahead of St-Etienne (40).

Brazilian clubs are over-represented among those using the most players. Thirteen of them have fielded at least 50 footballers during the last year. Many Eastern European teams, notably from Serbia and Ukraine, also are particularly instable. On the contrary, the majority of Western European and Asian clubs do not heavily rotate their squads.

Júnior Negão ahead of Ronaldo in 2020 top scorer list

Issue number 306 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 127 footballers having scored at least 10 goals in 94 top division leagues worldwide during the calendar year 2020. The 33-year-old Brazilian Júnior Negão from the South Korean team of Ulsan Hyundai tops the list with 24 goals before last week-end, two more than the 35-year-old Portuguese superstar Ronaldo from Juventus (25 vs 24 after the week-end).

By weighting goals with the sporting level of the competition in which they were scored using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory coefficient, Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus) is at the top of the rankings ahead of Ciro Immobile (Lazio), Robert Lewandowski (Bayern), Erling Haland (Borussia Dortmund) and Mohamed Salah (Liverpool).

With 15 domestic league goals in only 1’153 minutes, the young Norwegian prodigy Erling Haland has the lowest minutes per goal rate among big-5 league footballers: 76.9. Cristiano Ronaldo (24 goals in 1784 minutes, 81.1) and Andrej Kramari? from Hoffenheim (10 goals in 835 minutes, 83.5) complete the podium of this specific table.

English Premier League clubs rarely field young players

Issue number 305 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 80 top divisions worldwide according to the percentage of minutes by 21-year-old or younger players since the 2015/16 (or 2015) season. The lowest percentage among the five major European leagues was recorded in the English Premier League (7.1% of minutes), while the highest was measured in the French Ligue 1 (15.4%).

Two Baltic countries are at the top of the overall rankings: Estonia (31.1%) and Latvia (27.2%). The Slovenian top division complete the podium: 26.4%. The Dutch Eredivisie is the most competitive championship in the top 10 (8th, 23.8%). The highest figures for leagues in non-UEFA associations were observed in Panama (7th, 23.9%), Venezuela (13th, 22.0%) and Uruguay (20th, 18.0%).

Since 2015, Chinese Super League clubs fielded 21-year-old or younger players for the fewest percentage of minutes among all of the competitions surveyed: 3.9%. This very low proportion indicates that China is not yet ready to become a football power as local talents struggle to gain experience. The second lowest figure was recorded in the Turkish Süper Lig (4.1%).

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What about the home advantage after the COVID-19 pandemic?

Home teams traditionally win more matches than away ones. This is often explained by the support of local fans. Issue number 304 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the difference in the percentage of home wins before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in 63 leagues worldwide. It reveals that the home advantage persisted without spectators, even though in a less marked way.

From January 2015 to March 2020, home teams won 44.3% of matches in the leagues surveyed. After the outbreak of the pandemic and the closure of stadiums to the public, this figure went slightly down to 42.2%. To different extents, the percentage of home wins decreased in 41 of the 63 leagues studied. The average goal difference per match diminished from +0.31 to +0.24.

The greatest decrease in the percentage of home wins was recorded in the Greek top division (-15.1%), followed by the Austrian and German ones. At the opposite end, in the Swiss top-flight league, home teams won a significantly higher percentage of matches after the closure of stadiums to the public than before: +8.5%.

Global study of penalty cards in professional football

The brand new CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report compares 87 top divisions worldwide from the point of view of the number of yellow and red cards given by referees between 2015 and 2020. The study highlights great differences according to country and reveals the existence of significant correlations between the amount of cards per match and many socio-economic indicators for nations.

The number of cards varies considerably according to the confederation of belonging of the leagues studied. At one extreme, in South America (CONMEBOL), referees handed out on average 5.83 cards per match. This figure is 45% higher than that observed in the 15 Asian (AFC) leagues included in the study (4.00). Invariably, away teams receive more cards than home ones.

The gross domestic product (GDP) and the Human Development Index (HDI) are inversely correlated to the quantity of cards. This indicates that the matches played in nations whose inhabitants enjoy a higher standard of living and education are less fraught, or at least are less sanctioned by the referee corps.

A significant positive statistical correlation was also measured between the amount of cards and the homicide rate per country. The violence present in a society thus seems to be transposed to football. In addition, the more citizens consider that the level of corruption in their country is high, the more referees are likely to hand out cards. This result could reflect the existence of a social climate where distrust and suspicion are rife.

These findings show that football matches take place under different dynamics according to the social, economic, political and cultural context of the country in which they are played. They confirm the very strong link between football and society and reveal the importance of taking into account the specifics of countries for a fine analysis of the game even in a context of globalisation.

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Extend now! Top transfer value increases with one more year of contract

The 303rd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the big-5 league players whose transfer value would increase the most if their contract with the club of belonging was extended for an additional year. The most positive gap overall was recorded for Jadon Sancho (+€43M), ahead of Kylian Mbappé (+€39M) and Lionel Messi (+€35M).

With two years of contract remaining, the transfer value of Jadon Sancho according to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm is currently just above €180M. A one-year contract extension would drive this figure up to €223M. If Kylian Mbappé extended his contract with Paris St-Germain from June 2022 to June 2023, his estimated transfer value would increase from €242M to €281M.

Lionel Messi leads the table among players with only one year of contract remaining ahead of Georginio Wijnaldum and Ferran Torres. By renewing their contracts for an additional year, their transfer values would increase from about €80M to €115M for Messi, from €44M to €64M for Wijnaldum, as well as from €42M to €61M for Torres.

Bayern are ball movement champions

Issue number 302 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the InStat data on ball movement in kilometres during possession phases by teams from 35 European competitions for the seasons 2018/19 and 2019/20 (2018 and 2019 for summer leagues). Bayern Munich (12.7 km per match) outranks Manchester City (12.5 km) and Liverpool (12.3 km).

Bayern Munich players achieve on average slightly fewer passes per game than those of Manchester City (705 versus 722), but their distance is longer (18.0 metres versus 17.3). Liverpool players only make 654 passes per match (9th position), but their length (18.8 meters) is much greater than that measured for the vast majority of teams in the top positions of the rankings.

The Greek side of Panionios is at the bottom of the table with a ball circulation distance of about 6.8 kilometres per game. Cardiff City is anti-penultimate with the lowest number of successful passes overall (326). The highest average passes lengths were recorded for two Scottish teams: Livingston (23.1 meters) and Hamilton Academical (22.4). Contact us to know more about InStat data and services.

Professional football coaches: age, longevity and origin

The 56th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses the characteristics of the coaches at the head of 1,646 teams from 110 leagues in 79 countries worldwide. The study covers three aspects: the age, the length of stay in the club managed and the origin. The typical profile for a coach is a male just under 50 years of age (48.8) in charge for less than one year (301 days).

Altogether, 28.3% of coaches managing on the 1st of June 2020 the teams analysed grew up in another association than that of the club trained. This percentage is higher than that measured among players in the same competitions: 24.7%. The analysis also shows that almost two-thirds of coaches are former professional players: 64.3%. Defenders over-represented, while former goalkeepers are under-represented.

Issue number 301 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post reveals that Argentina is the most represented nation among expatriate coaches. The 68 Argentinians present abroad on the 1st June 2020 were at work in 22 different countries. Most of them were active in other Latin American countries. Similar to players, their top destination was Chile (11 coaches). Spaniards are also well represented abroad (41 coaches in 21 countries), as well as Serbs (34 coaches in a record number of 24 countries).

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