The first CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report published in January 2015 studied club stability across Europe. Three years later, the thirty-fourth edition develops this issue by illustrating the value of long-term planning for football clubs. The indicator selected is the percentage of players recruited by their employer club since less than one year.

The study reveals that the best performing teams have much more stable squads than lesser competitive ones. Between 2009 and 2017, big-5 league champions had on average only about one in four new players as squad members. This proportion can be considered as an optimal balance to achieve success.

The Report also highlights the increasing instability of teams across Europe. On the 1st of October 2017, 44.9% of players were recruited during the year. This figure was only 36.7% in 2009. If this trend continues, footballers who have been with their employer club for more than one year will soon represent less than half of squad members.

To limit the growing instability, football’s governing bodies should act against the increasing financial gaps between teams both nationally and internationally. They should also combat corrupt practices at both transfer market and club management levels. It is also necessary to limit the speculation around players’ mobility, notably through a greater protection of training clubs, the enforcement of the third-party ownership ban and the reinforcement of the regulations regarding football intermediaries.

Visit the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas to know more about the demographic features of teams in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations.

Barcelona and Real Madrid top the rankings for the longest average contract duration of first team squad members. Six out of the eight top ranked clubs are still competing in European Cups. This illustrates the relationships between long-term planning and success. The 222nd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the data for all big-5 league teams.

On average, a Barcelona first team squad member has 3.23 years of contract remaining. This figure is 3.59 for the 11 players who have been fielded the most in domestic league games so far this year. The longest average contract durations for the other big-5 leagues were measured for  Tottenham , LOSC Lille, RB Leipzig and AS Rome.

At the opposite end of the table, the lowest figure overall was observed for the French side Amiens (0.99 years). In three clubs only, the average contract duration of the 11 most fielded players is below one year: Crotone, Benevento and Strasbourg. All the teams at the bottom of the rankings are confronted with the difficulty of renovating their squads without losing competitiveness.

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Issue number 221 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the percentage of matches with a gap of three or more goals in 29 European competitions. The highest figure so far this season was observed for the Champions League: 29% (+8% compared to the same moment during last season). This percentage is twice as high as at Europa League level: 16% (+3%).

The English Premier League had so far the third highest proportion of very uneven matches among the competitions surveyed: 22% (+4%). At the opposite end of the table, the German Bundesliga is by far the big-5 European league with the lowest percentage of games with a three or more goal gap: 11% (-6%). The lowest proportion overall was measured in Russia: 10% (-4%).

The percentage of imbalanced fixtures increased in 20 out of the 29 competitions analysed. Overall, the average goal gap per match increased from 1.37 to 1.40. The highest figure for this indicator was also recorded at Champions League level: 1.87 from 1.55 last season (+21%). This analysis reveals the general trend towards competitive unbalance in European football.

The 220th issue of the Weekly Post presents players from the big-5 who performed the best in domestic league matches during the last three months. Footballers are ranked according to the exclusive approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory to measure the technical performance of players. Only footballers who played at least 45 minutes in eight championship matches are included in the rankings.

The CIES Football methodology takes into account the performance of players in six different areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting. In addition, the results obtained by the clubs of employment for matches in which players were fielded for at least 45 minutes were also taken into consideration as a weighting factor.

The following players head the table in their respective position: Hugo Lloris (goalkeepers), Kalidou Koulibaly (centre backs), Mário Rui (full backs), Toni Kroos (defensive midfielders), Christian Eriksen (box-to-box midfielders), Lionel Messi (wingers) and Cristiano Ronaldo (forwards). This widget allows users accessing the rankings for different periods.

The CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post number 219 presents the 50 big-5 league players with the most positive gap between their current transfer value and the fee paid for them by their employer club. The greatest potential added value could be achieved by Tottenham Hotspur with Harry Kane: €198 million.

Another player trained by his club of employment ranks second: Lionel Messi. However, given Messi’s age, the potential profit for Barcelona will progressively reduce. Dele Alli is third with a potential added value of €164 million. The possible benefit for Atlético Madrid regarding Antoine Griezmann does not take into account the €100 million buy-out clause negotiated by the Frenchman during his last contract extension.

The estimated values are calculated using an exclusive algorithm conceived by the CIES Football Observatory research team. An increasing number of professional clubs and football intermediaries have recourse to the approach developed for transfer negotiations and litigation. The estimations for all big-5 league players are available here.

The 33rd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents a comparative analysis of the presence of club-trained players in 31 European top divisions between 2009 and 2017. It notably reveals that footballers having been for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21 in their club of employment accounted for almost one quarter of champion winning team squads, compared to only about one fifth for all clubs surveyed.

The ability to develop footballers for the first team squad contributes to the competitive advantage held by the most successful clubs. However, this finding is partially related to the current club-trained player definition. Indeed, after three years, a player recruited up until the age of 18 can still be considered as a club-trained footballer for the team that signed him. This encourages top European teams to lure the best talents initially trained by less competitive clubs.

A change in the definition of club-trained or association-trained players would be useful to ensure a sounder development of the European game. Lowering the relevant age range from 15 to 21 years to 12 to 17 years would be helpful in limiting the increasing speculation around the transfer of minors. Indeed, according to FIFA rules, communitarian players can only move abroad after their 16th birthday. This would de facto disallow recruiting teams or associations to acquire a training status for players imported as minors.

While having a well performing youth academy does not lead directly to success, the report shows that it is a relevant indicator of the club’s ability to look to the future. The existence of a powerful youth setting is also a good indicator of the club’s strength as a territorially embedded organisation. Beyond short-term results, investing in youth training can be considered a gauge for the sustainable development of the club as an institution.