The CIES Football Observatory celebrates the 250th edition of its Weekly Post with an exclusive analysis on the contribution of clubs in training the players fielded in big-5 league matches during the last five years. Training clubs are those where players have been for at least three seasons between the ages of 15 and 21. The rankings are elaborated by summing minutes played in the big-5 since January 1st 2014 by all of the footballers trained per club.

Barcelona tops the table with 69 footballers trained fielded in the big-5 by 55 different teams for a total of 319,224 minutes. Behind the Catalans are their great rivals Real Madrid: 69 footballers trained, 44 different clubs, 304,052 minutes. In the top ten positions are six Spanish, three French and one English team (Manchester United). According to the definition used, Cristiano Ronaldo and Paul Pogba are Manchester United club-trained players.

The best-ranked clubs for the remaining big-5 leagues are Olympique Lyonnais, VfB Stuttgart and AS Roma. The greatest contributors outside of the countries hosting the five major European competitions are River Plate, Sporting Clube, Boca Juniors, Ajax and Feyenoord. In total, 1,370 teams have trained players fielded in the big-5 during the last five years. More information is available on request at football.observatory@cies.ch.

The 42th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the evolution of the competitive balance in the group stages of the UEFA Champions League since the introduction of the current format in 2003/04. The study illustrates a clear trend towards less balance and more predictability. Changes in the competition format and the redistribution of resources are needed to preserve a sufficient level of sporting and economic balance.

The analysis of the distribution of points at the end of the group stages shows that teams at the top of the table have progressively obtained more points and significantly improved their goal difference. The opposite trend was observed for teams at the bottom of the group. The average goal difference in group stage matches also increased. This is notably linked to the growth of fixtures which concluded with at least a three goal difference: from 16.9% during the first four seasons analysed to a new record of 22.9% between 2015 and 2018.

The study also reveals the greater predictability of matches. The percentage of fixtures where teams that are clear favourites according to odds on the betting market go on to win went clearly up: 81.4% of wins at home between 2014 and 2018 (+5.3% in comparison to 2004-2008) and 74.6% away (+12.1%). A good compromise to preserve the interest of the Champions League over the long term would consist of reducing the number of participants in the group stage, while keeping an open system of competition and guaranteeing a greater percentage of revenue to those excluded.

Solidarity could operate through a meritocratic basis by keeping aside part of the revenues for all of the teams having participated in the training of players fielded. Such a redistributive mechanism would have the great merit of recognising the fundamental role played by a multitude of clubs in developing the players who guarantee the high quality spectacle that the major teams produce and from which they derive benefit. Go to the study here.

Who are the footballers having played the most minutes in the big-5 leagues during the last five years? This is the question answered in issue number 249 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post. Samir Handanovi? (Inter) tops the table for goalkeepers, while César Azpilicueta (Chelsea) heads the rankings for outfield players.

Only ten goalkeepers in the top 25 list have been in the same club during the last five years. This is the same proportion as that observed among outfield footballers. Conversely, Joe Hart played for four different big-5 league teams over this period: Manchester City, Torino, West Ham and Burnley. Only five forwards are in the top 25 list: Lionel Messi, José Callejón, Romelu Lukaku, Luis Suárez and Antoine Griezmann.

The most fielded players at German Bundesliga level, where there are fewer matches as only 18 teams are competing, are Daniel Baier (13,477 minutes for Augsburg) and Oliver Baumann (15,210 minutes for Freiburg and Hoffenheim).

No team in the 35 European competitions surveyed needed as few shots to score as Paris St-Germain. The French side scored so far every 4.7 shots. According to the exclusive InStat data, this ratio was inferior to five for another big-5 league club only: Borussia Dortmund. The top three per league is available in issue number 248 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

The most efficient teams in the three remaining leagues of the big-5 are Barcelona (5.4 shots per goal), Arsenal (5.8) and Sampdoria (5.9). The highest figure among teams from the five major European leagues was recorded for Huddersfield Town: 17.3 shots per goal. The Premier League club must absolutely improve this statistics to avoid relegation.

The most efficient team outside of the big-5 are the Swiss of BSC Young Boys (4.8), ahead of FC Midtjylland and PSV Eindhoven. On the contrary, Apollon Smyrnis (25.1), Hapoel Tel Aviv (21.1) and Arsenal Kyiv (20.7) were so far particularly inefficient. More data is available in the CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas, as well as on demand.

Issue number 247 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents big-5 league players whose current estimated value exceeds the most the fee paid by recruiting teams during last summer. Rodri Hernández (+€45 million) tops the table for fee-paying transfers ahead of Lucas Torreira (+€44m), while Emre Can (+€45m) heads the rankings for free agents ahead of Stefan de Vrij (+€39m).

Juventus and Liverpool are the only teams with three recruits in the top 20 tables: Emre Can, Cristiano Ronaldo and João Cancelo for the former club, as well as Xherdan Shaqiri, Alisson Becker and Fabinho Tavares for the latter one. The excellent performances of both these players and their employer teams explain in large part the magnitude of the gap observed.

Seven other clubs have more than one representative in the top 20 lists: Inter Milan (de Vrij and Asamoah), Napoli (Younes and Ruiz), Real Betis (López and Canales), LOSC Lille (Bamba and Ikoné), Everton (Bernard and Richarlison), West Ham (Wilshere and Anderson) and Arsenal (Torreira and Guendouzi). Current values were estimated using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm.

The 41st CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses the link between ball possession and results in 35 European leagues. While this link is undeniable, it is only from a certain level that ball control allows teams to improve significantly their results. This is probably the source of the erroneous but widespread idea that possession is not a key factor for success.

The 70 champions of the last two seasons in the 35 leagues analysed had an average possession of 57% during their winning season. Only 10% of champions won their league with a ball possession of less than 50%: Spartak Trnava, RC Strasbourg, Stade de Reims, AIK Solna, FC Midtjylland, Spal 2013 and CFR Cluj. None of the 70 champions completed fewer passes in the attacking third of the pitch than their opponents during the title winning season.

The analysis at match level for all the possession indicators taken into account shows that a team can sometimes accept an opponent’s domination, especially when they are winning. However, this is not a successful strategy in the longer term as it implies too many risks of conceding the first goal without being then able to put sufficient pressure on opponents. The data used were generated by the specialist sports company InStat. More information is available on demand.