Issue number 175 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents a networked representation of fee paying deals having involved big-5 league teams during the last transfer window. Clubs in the five major European championships have invested a record amount of 742 million € to sign new players. The previous record, 523 million €, was established in 2011.

Globally, 142 players have been transferred for money from and/or to big-5 league clubs for a total figure of 921 M €. Deals internal to the five major championships represented 48.8% of the total volume of transactions (450 M €). The remaining money is subdivised into the recruitment of players from clubs outside the big-5 (292 M €) and the selling of players to non big-5 league clubs (179 M €), in particular to China (120 M €).

The highest volume of transactions concerned English Premier League clubs (443 M €). At second position is the French Ligue 1 (225 M €), while the Spanish Liga is at the bottom of the table (64 M €). Surprisingly, the commercial balance for the Premier League is positive (+51 M € taking into account add-ons but not including the signing of Gabriel Jesus by Manchester City concluded since last summer) and very negative for the Ligue 1 (-150 M € following the international recruitment of players such as Draxler, Guedes, Payet or Depay).

Issue number 174 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents players who made their debut in the professional game after July 1st 2016 fielded during the current season in domestic league matches by a big-5 league club. The analysis notably highlights the key role played by the French top division in the promotion of young talents.

The French Ligue 1 holds record figures for both the number of debutants (29) and total domestic league minutes played (11,129). At the opposite end of the spectrum is the English Premier League: 12 debutants and 907 minutes. At club level, the record figures were observed at Montpellier, Metz, Toulouse and Espanyol for the number of debutants (4), as well as at Nice for minutes played (2,245).

The most fielded debutants per league are Malang Sarr (Nice) in France (1,964 minutes), Aarón Martín (Espanyol) in Spain (1,147 minutes), Pol Lirola (Sassuolo) in Italy (1,022 minutes), Ousman Manneh (Werder) in Germany (488 minutes) and Harry Winks (Tottenham) in England (357 minutes).

Issue number 173 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the gap between the value of squads and transfer fee expenditure to assemble them. This analysis allows us highlighting the most and least efficient clubs from a player economic valorisation perspective. For the vast majority of teams, the gap is positive. Indeed, the study does not take into account costs that the replacement of squad members would generate.

At the top of the table is Barcelona. This is mainly due to the great economic valorisation of Lionel Messi (from 0 € as a youth academy product to the current estimated transfer value of 170.5 M €) and Neymar (from 87 to 246.8 M €). In the top positions of the rankings mainly are well performing teams focusing on the training and/or long term recruitment of young talents. Second-ranked club Tottenham Hotspur is the perfect illustration of this strategy.

Conversely, at the bottom of the table are above all clubs having recently achieved poor results with respect to transfer fee investments in assembling the squad such as Hamburg, Wolfsburg, Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Valencia and Schalke 04. Paris St-Germain’s last position is rather due to expensive recruitments and the lower Ligue 1 status compared to the four other major European leagues.

Neymar is by far the big-5 league player with the highest transfer value. The Brazilian prodigy outranks Lionel Messi and Paul Pogba. Data presented in issue number 172 of the Weekly Post is computed by means of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer value algorithm.

Since 2012, the CIES Football Observatory research team has developed a unique approach to estimate on a scientific basis the transfer value of professional football players. The statistical model through which fair prices are calculated includes multiple variables on player performance (minutes, goals, etc.) and characteristics (age, contract, etc.), as well as data on employer clubs and potential recruiting ones.

The big-5 league player with the highest estimated transfer value is Neymar: 246.8 million €. The Barcelona’s forward is clearly ahead teammate Lionel Messi (170.5 M €) and Paul Pogba (155.3 M €). Ten players have an estimated value of more than 100 M €. In the top 100 list are 42 players from the English Premier League.

The highest values per position were recorded for Jan Oblak among goalkeepers (59.8 M €), Raphaël Varane among centre backs (64 M €), Héctor Bellerín among full backs (70.3 M €), Paul Pogba among central midfielders (155.3 M €), Dele Alli among attacking midfielders (110.5 M €) and Neymar among forwards (246.8 M €).

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The 21st Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory presents a predictive analysis of the final rankings of the big-5 European leagues. The prediction is based on a multivariate statistical model taking into account the offensive and defensive performances of big-5 league teams until the 31st December 2016, as well as the level of their grip on the game.

The analysis highlights that four out of the five current leaders are the most likely champions: Chelsea in the English Premier League, Real Madrid in the Spanish Liga, Bayern Munich in the German Bundesliga and Juventus in the Italian Serie A. However, in the French Ligue 1, Monaco should overtake Paris St-Germain and Nice.

According to our approach, despite recent wins, Manchester United won’t be able to rank higher than sixth. Liverpool will finish second ahead of Manchester City and Arsenal. In Germany, Hamburg will be relegated for the first time in its history. In Italy, Inter will only rank fifth, while Milan AC will downgrade to seventh position. Let’s us wait a few months to see how accurate these predictions will prove to be.

Year after year, the CIES Football Observatory research team has developed a powerful approach for the technical analysis of player performance. On the basis of this methodology, issue number 171 of the Weekly Post presents the 10 best performing big-5 league players per position. Cristiano Ronaldo heads the table for forwards ahead of Lionel Messi.

To be eligible, a player must have been fielded for at least 900 domestic league minutes so far. Moreover, rankings make the distinction between full international players and footballers who did not yet play for a national A-team. The latter rankings allows us highlighting the top level performances of many players who are still relatively unknown.

The highest score overall was recorded for Real Madrid’s striker Cristiano Ronaldo: 94. This figure is one point higher than that measured for Barcelona’s Lionel Messi. In other positions, the best performing players so far have been Manuel Neuer and Stéphane Ruffier among goalkeepers, Mats Hummels among centre backs, Alex Sandro among full backs, Thiago Alcântara and Paul Pogba among central midfielders, as well as Kevin de Bruyne and Philippe Coutinho among attacking midfielders.

The highest score overall for non full internationals was observed for Marcos Alonso (Chelsea) and Jonathan Viera (Las Palmas): 87. The youngest footballers in the top 10 lists for players yet to be selected for national A-teams are Yann Karamoh (Caen), born in 1998, Allan Saint-Maximin (Bastia, on loan from Monaco) and Jesús Vallejo (Eintracht Frankfurt, on loan from Real Madrid), both born in 1997.