logo Football Observatory  
ENG |

New Monthly Report: a transfer network analysis

Football offers a wide array of possibilities to undertake network analysis. Issue number 31 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report focuses on transfer networks from a triple research perspective. What are the main destinations for players from the three principal exporting countries: Brazil, Argentina and France? What are the big-5 league clubs’ recruitment areas? Where do Real Madrid, Manchester United, AS Rome, Bayern Munich and Paris St-Germain sign their players?

The study shows that the Brazilian player is the only truly global worker in the professional football labour market. Brazilians are present in 80 of the 91 associations covered in the study. While also numerous abroad, Argentineans and French migrate relatively more to neighbouring countries. The analysis also reveals that teams from the five major European championships transfer a higher percentage of players from abroad. However, the proportion of footballers signed from non-European countries is on the decrease.

An increasing number of players in general, and non-European ones more specifically, first move to intermediary countries in order to prove themselves before to eventually being able to attain a club in the big-5 leagues. Within this increasingly speculative and fragmented context, many footballers get lost along the way. Today more than ever, mental strength and cultural adaptability are of key importance to have a successful career path.

Atlético Madrid tops the big-5 league efficiency rankings

The technical statistics produced by the leading data football company InStat are very valuable to analyse performance on an objective basis. Issue number 210 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 50 teams in 35 European competitions with the most positive and negative gaps between points per match achieved and predicted on the basis of a performance model including the variables of shots conceded from the box, possession and shots on target.

The highest positive gap between points achieved and predicted according to pitch production was recorded for Viktoria Plze?. The Czech side obtained so far 2.88 points per game instead of 1.6. At big-5 league level, the greater positive difference between points achieved and expected was measured for Atlético Madrid. Burnley, Monaco, Manchester United, Nantes and Valencia were also particularly efficient.

Conversely, Greek sides Platanias heads the table for teams that achieved the least points per game with respect to their performance level (-0.97 points per match). Benevento and Milan AC were also particularly inefficient. Future will tell to what extent these negative gaps are related to bad luck. The European rankings for the three performance metrics used for this analysis are available here. Please contact us for more information about InStat data.

Transfer values: Neymar, Messi and Kane at the top

Like every January, the CIES Football Observatory has calculated the transfer values of players in the five major European leagues. The assessment takes into account the key criteria used by market actors such as age, position, contract duration, performance, international status, etc. Neymar (€213m) heads the table ahead of Lionel Messi (€202m) and Harry Kane (€195m). The top 100 list is available in issue number 209 of the Weekly Post.

Five players from the English Premier League are in the top ten: Harry Kane (2nd), Dele Alli (6th), Kevin de Bruyne (7th), Romelu Lukaku (8th) and Paul Pogba (10th). However, the highest estimated values for goalkeepers and defenders were recorded for two FC Barcelona’s players: Marc-André ter Stegen (€96m) and Samuel Umtiti (€101m). Paulo Dybala (€175m) heads the Serie A rankings, while Robert Lewandowski (€107m) has the greatest figure for German Bundesliga players.

This research note details the scientific methodology used for these estimates. The ratings module on the CIES Football Observatory website presents the values for all big-5 league players. This transfer widget displays the trends from a comparative perspective. Potential clients and commercial partners are kindly invited to contact us to develop new collaborations for a new and exciting football year!

Full internationals: Barcelona heads the table

FC Barcelona currently employs 20 players fielded by national A-teams in 2017 for a record number of 139 matches and 10,846 minutes. The Catalan side outranks two English clubs (Manchester United and Tottenham), Juventus FC and Bayern Munich. At sixth place is the Nicaraguan team Real Estelí. The top 100 list is available in issue number 208 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

England is the most represented country in the top 100 positions: 16 clubs. Five English teams are in the top 10. Germany (10 clubs) and Italy (9) are the second and third nations with the most representatives in the top 100 rankings. The presence of six teams from the United States confirms the robust development of the professional game in this country.

Overall, 38 associations have at least one club ranked in the top 100. Among them, 20 are UEFA member associations, while 18 belongs to other Confederations. The three best ranked non-European teams are Real Estelí from Nicaragua, Al Sadd from Qatar and San Jose Earthquakes from the United States. For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

Our warmest season’s greetings to you and your family, and our best wishes for a happy and successful New Year!

Best performing big-5 league players of the semester

Every semester, the CIES Football Observatory lists players who performed the best in big-5 league matches using an exclusive statistical approach. Issue number 207 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 tables for eight positions. Only footballers who played at least 720’ domestic league minutes are included in the rankings.

Players from four leagues head the tables: Liga’s Jan Oblak (goalkeepers) and Lionel Messi (wingers); Premier League’s Nicolás Otamendi (centre backs) and Sergio Agüero (centre forwards); Ligue 1’s Marco Verratti (box-to-box midfielders) and Nabil Fekir (second strikers); as well as Serie A’s Faouzi Ghoulam (full backs) and Jorginho Frello (defensive midfielders).

Besides established football stars, in the top 10 tables also are relatively unknown footballers such as Nick Pope (Burnley), Alisson Becker (Roma), Michael Gregoritsch (Hoffenheim), Luis Alberto (Lazio) or Rodrigo Moreno (Valencia). The most represented club is Manchester City (12 players), ahead of Paris St-Germain (8 players).

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook to access more exclusive information.

Highest transfer values for U21 players: Mbappé at the top

The young French prodigy Kylian Mbappé heads the CIES Football Observatory table for the U21 big-5 league players with the highest estimated transfer values. The Paris Saint-Germain striker outranks Dele Alli (Tottenham Hotspur) and Leroy Sané (Manchester City). The top 100 list is available in the issue number 206 of the Weekly Post.

According to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s algorithm, during the last three months, the transfer value of Kylian Mbappé has increased from €133.8 M to €182.8 M (+37%). This allowed him to outrank Dele Alli, whose transfer value remained stable at around €180 M. Ousmane Dembélé (Barcelona), Timo Werner (RB Leipzig) and Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) top the rankings in their respective leagues.

The estimated transfer values for all big-5 league players are available in the ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory’s website. This widget allows you comparing transfer value trends. Media and clubs interested in this tool or in our services can contact us.

1 | ... | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | ... | 100

Plus