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Monthly Report: performance and playing styles in 35 European leagues

The analysis of pitch performances at both individual and collective level is one of the three principle fields of research of the CIES Football Observatory. The 28th edition of our Monthly Report compares 35 national competitions across Europe using the database made available by the InStat company. The sample comprises 19,544 matches played between the 1st September 2015 and the 31st August 2017.

The analysis focuses on three aspects: the teams’ ball management, the degree of openness of games, as well as the level of power balance between opponents. The principle conclusion drawn is that the top leagues differentiate themselves above all by the fluidity of games, as illustrated by the highest level of successful passes and the quickest ball circulation.

The five best values in terms of passes per minutes of possession were recorded for the five major European championships, with a maximum of 18.2 for the German Bundesliga. The big-5 leagues also top the table for the percentage of successful passes, with a maximum of 82.4% for the Italian Serie A. More surprisingly, the Swedish and Israeli top divisions figure high in this ranking.

This study is but an initial foray in exploiting the numerous possibilities available thanks to the new collaboration between the CIES Football Observatory and InStat. The depth and breadth of data produced by this company constitutes a solid basis for many future research projects.

Transfer value trends: Lukaku at the top

The CIES Football Observatory has specialised in the scientific estimation of professional players’ transfer value. Issue number 197 of the Weekly Post highlights big-5 league footballers whose transfer value augmented the most in absolute terms since July 2017. At the head of the rankings are Romelu Lukaku (+€56m), Kylian Mbappé (+€50m) and Paulo Dybala (+€47m).

The estimated value of Romelu Lukaku increased by 54% during the last three months: from €102.7m before his transfer to Manchester United to €158.5 m after his excellent start of the season. Beyond inflation, expensive transfers to other teams, contract extensions and top level performances are the key reasons underlying the strongest increases observed.

In relative terms, the increase was above 100% for many young and promising players. Among them notably are Patrick Cutrone (Milan), Adama Diakhaby (Monaco) and Dennis Geiger (Hoffenheim). The exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer value widget presents the trends for all big-5 league players, while their technical profile is available here.

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Ball possession: Celtic heads the rankings

The fresh collaboration with the leading football data company InStat allows us to present exclusive analysis on the performance of clubs throughout Europe. The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post of this kind focuses on the percentage of ball possession since the start of the season for teams from 35 national competitions. The highest figure overall was recorded for Celtic Glasgow: 70.8%.

The Scottish team completed 659 passes per match compared to an average of 196 for their opponents. Celtic made 7.1 passes per possession phase, while their opponents only achieved three. The average duration of a possession was 23.5 seconds for Celtic and only 11.1 seconds for their opponents.

Big-5 league clubs are over-represented in the top positions of the rankings. This reflects the greater technical ability of their players, as well as the stronger importance given to possession in the playing philosophy of a higher proportion of teams. For more insights on data produced by InStat, please contact football.observatory@cies.ch.

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Youngest teams across Europe

Issue number 195 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks top division clubs from 31 European associations according to the average age of line-ups fielded since the start of the current season. The lowest figure overall was recorded for the Ukrainian side Stal Kamianske (21.7 years), while the youngest team at big-5 league level so far is LOSC Lille (22.9 years).

In the top five positions of the rankings also are NAC Breda, Lokomotiva Zagreb, AS Tren?ín and FC Nordsjælland. Fifteen clubs from the five major European leagues are in the top 100: seven from Bundesliga (Leipzig, Leverkusen, Freiburg, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart, Hamburg and Köln), six from Ligue 1 (Lille, Rennes, Toulouse, Bordeaux, St-Etienne and Lyon), one from Italy (Milan) and one from Spain (Valencia).

The youngest English Premier League team, Newcastle United, is only ranked 113th out of the 466 clubs included in the analysis. The data for all of the teams is available in the freshly updated version of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas. More than 50,000 internauts passionate about football have already visited this unique tool.

The CIES Football Observatory innovates with brand new transfer value widget

The CIES Football Observatory is proud to announce the launching of its latest innovation: a widget allowing anyone to follow the evolution of the transfer value of players from the big-5 leagues. Freely available to all, this new tool also allows users to compare transfer value trends between different footballers.

The widget is a new step in the popularisation of the research work carried out by the CIES Football Observatory. Transfer values are estimated according to an algorithm exclusively developed by the Observatory’s academic team. A research note on the methodology used is available here.

Through the widget, the goal is to increase the digital presence of the CIES Football Observatory. Within this context, collaborations with mainstream media are considered. In parallel, we spare no effort to enrich contents available on our website. Stay in touch!

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Manchester City has the costliest squad in football history

Manchester City invested a record value of €853 million in transfer fees to assemble its current squad. This value is €850 million for Paris St-Germain and €784 million for previous record holder Manchester United. The data for all big-5 league teams is available in issue number 194 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

Manchester City’s total transfer fee expenditure to make up its squad went up by €242m compared to September 2016. The increase was even stronger for Paris St-Germain: +€395m (including the €180m investment for Mbappé). The figure for Manchester United is “only” €66m higher than one year ago, while that of Champions League winners Real Madrid went down by €138m.

The six biggest English teams are in the top ten positions of the rankings. The aggregated values per league are €5.7bn for the Premier League (on average €287m per team, +28% compared to previous year), €2.4bn for the Serie A (€122m per team, +26%), €2.2bn for the Liga (€110m per team, +9%), as well as €1.9bn for the Bundesliga (€107m per team, +19%) and the Ligue 1 (€93m per team, +78%).

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