The 158th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the beneficiaries of transfer investments made by big-5 league clubs. Between 2010 and 2016, roughly two thirds of the fees were paid out to other teams taking part in the five major European championships. This percentage varies between 63% in Italy and 70% in England.

Out of the €19.5 billion spent by big-5 league clubs over the seven years analysed, €12.9 billion benefited teams from the same competitions. To be able to generate considerable incomes on the transfer market, it is necessary to have sufficient economic clout and prestige to attract the best talents either young or adult.

In the current state of play, clubs without the necessary economic muscle have little chance of earning consistent amounts. A good access to dominant transfer networks is also of crucial importance. The main beneficiaries are presented in issue number 157 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

More data and insights are available in the 17th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

Issue number 157 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 teams having generated the most income from the transfer of players to big-5 league clubs since 2010. Liverpool tops the rankings with €442 million, ahead of Valencia (€432 million) and Juventus (€415 million).

The comparison with the figures on expenditure published last week shows that the transfer balance for Liverpool was negative: -€221 million (not including sales to non big-5 league clubs). However, this is a much lower net loss than for Manchester City (-€777 million), Manchester United (-€659 million) or Chelsea (-€513 million). The figures for Arsenal and Tottenham are -€279 million, respectively -€88 million.

Only nine clubs outside the big-5 league countries are in the top 50 positions for transfer incomes: Benfica (4th), Porto (5th), Ajax (30th), Sporting Lisboa (33rd), Santos (42nd), PSV Eindhoven (45th), Dinamo Zagreb (47th), Shakhtar Donetsk (49th) and São Paulo (50th).

More data and insights are available in the 17th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

The 17th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses monetary flows related to the transfer of players within European football. Since 2010, big-5 league club investments have grown almost continually year after year to reach a new record of €4.2 billion in 2016.

Over the seven years analysed, the clubs from the five major European championships have paid €19.5 billion in transfer fees. Premier League teams have spent €7.5 billion, which accounts for 39% of total expenditure. This percentage reached 42% in 2016.

Issue number 156 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the table of clubs who spent the most on transfer fees since 2010 and in 2016. In both cases, Manchester City heads the rankings: €1 billion since 2010 and €231 million in 2016 (including add-ons). In the former table, Guardiola’s team outranks Chelsea (€871 million) and Manchester United (€841 million).

Issue number 155 of the Weekly Post presents the most profitable transfers of the summer from a selling club perspective. The highest gaps between fees paid (add-ons included) and amounts estimated via the CIES Football Observatory algorithm were measured for Gonzalo Higuaín at individual level (+ €23.8 million) and Sevilla FC at team level (+ €34.9 million).

Regarding Higuaín, the existence of a €90 million buy-out clause allowed Naples to cash much more money than it would have been reasonable to expect. In the top three of the best summer sales are also Eric Bailly (+ €23.5 million) and Kevin Gameiro (+ €22.5 million). Time will tell if these risky operations from a financial perspective will prove to be sportingly profitable.

Sevilla heads the club rankings ahead of Crystal Palace and Naples. The six paying fee transfers completed by the Spanish side were negotiated € 34.9 million above the aggregated value calculated through the CIES Football Observatory algorithm. Crystal Place’s second position is mainly related to the price negotiated for Yannick Bolasie’s transfer to Everton.

The 16th edition of the Monthly Report provides more details on the CIES Football Observatory approach to calculate both transfer values and probabilities of professional footballers. During the last transfer window, the correlation measured between fees estimated and paid was 80%. The ratings module on the CIES Football Observatory website presents the estimates for current big-5 league players. For more information, please contact us.

While the transfer window did not yet come to an end, it is already possible to have a good idea of the profile of squads assembled by clubs. Issue number 154 of the CIES Football Observatory Big-5 Weekly Post analyses the average age per team of players fielded in domestic league games.

Up until now, the youngest team at big-5 league level is Nice: 23.3 years. In the English Premier League, the lowest value was recorded for Tottenham (25.5 years). At the opposite end of the spectrum we find Chievo in Europe (31.4 years) and Watford in England (29.8 years).

Among teams qualified for the UEFA Champions League, the average age varies from 24.5 years for Bayer Leverkusen to 29.7 years for Juventus. The second and third youngest teams are the French sides Monaco (24.9 years) and Lyon (25.2 years). All information is available here.

While the summer transfer window is approaching deadline, it is possible to compare predictions published in June by the CIES Football Observatory with reality. As for Gonzalo Higuaín, many players with the highest fee paying transfer probability in June have already changed club.

Among players whose transfer value on June 1st 2016 was higher than 25 million €, the most likely to be still transferred until the end of the transfer window is Alexandre Lacazette (Olympique Lyonnais). His current transfer value is around 50 million € (+ 8 million € since last June).

Also at the top of the June’s transfer probability list, Antoine Griezmann has in the meanwhile extended his contract with Atlético Madrid. This suggests that the French prodigy will not be transferred until 2017. His current transfer value is close to 130 million €.

The ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory website allows users to access the transfer values of all big-5 league players, as well as exclusive statistics on their pitch performance and career paths.

The correlation between values estimated by our algorithm and fees already paid this summer is almost 80%. This confirms the high explaining power of our exclusive approach. For more information, please contact us.