Issue number 155 of the Weekly Post presents the most profitable transfers of the summer from a selling club perspective. The highest gaps between fees paid (add-ons included) and amounts estimated via the CIES Football Observatory algorithm were measured for Gonzalo Higuaín at individual level (+ €23.8 million) and Sevilla FC at team level (+ €34.9 million).

Regarding Higuaín, the existence of a €90 million buy-out clause allowed Naples to cash much more money than it would have been reasonable to expect. In the top three of the best summer sales are also Eric Bailly (+ €23.5 million) and Kevin Gameiro (+ €22.5 million). Time will tell if these risky operations from a financial perspective will prove to be sportingly profitable.

Sevilla heads the club rankings ahead of Crystal Palace and Naples. The six paying fee transfers completed by the Spanish side were negotiated € 34.9 million above the aggregated value calculated through the CIES Football Observatory algorithm. Crystal Place’s second position is mainly related to the price negotiated for Yannick Bolasie’s transfer to Everton.

The 16th edition of the Monthly Report provides more details on the CIES Football Observatory approach to calculate both transfer values and probabilities of professional footballers. During the last transfer window, the correlation measured between fees estimated and paid was 80%. The ratings module on the CIES Football Observatory website presents the estimates for current big-5 league players. For more information, please contact us.

While the transfer window did not yet come to an end, it is already possible to have a good idea of the profile of squads assembled by clubs. Issue number 154 of the CIES Football Observatory Big-5 Weekly Post analyses the average age per team of players fielded in domestic league games.

Up until now, the youngest team at big-5 league level is Nice: 23.3 years. In the English Premier League, the lowest value was recorded for Tottenham (25.5 years). At the opposite end of the spectrum we find Chievo in Europe (31.4 years) and Watford in England (29.8 years).

Among teams qualified for the UEFA Champions League, the average age varies from 24.5 years for Bayer Leverkusen to 29.7 years for Juventus. The second and third youngest teams are the French sides Monaco (24.9 years) and Lyon (25.2 years). All information is available here.

While the summer transfer window is approaching deadline, it is possible to compare predictions published in June by the CIES Football Observatory with reality. As for Gonzalo Higuaín, many players with the highest fee paying transfer probability in June have already changed club.

Among players whose transfer value on June 1st 2016 was higher than 25 million €, the most likely to be still transferred until the end of the transfer window is Alexandre Lacazette (Olympique Lyonnais). His current transfer value is around 50 million € (+ 8 million € since last June).

Also at the top of the June’s transfer probability list, Antoine Griezmann has in the meanwhile extended his contract with Atlético Madrid. This suggests that the French prodigy will not be transferred until 2017. His current transfer value is close to 130 million €.

The ratings module of the CIES Football Observatory website allows users to access the transfer values of all big-5 league players, as well as exclusive statistics on their pitch performance and career paths.

The correlation between values estimated by our algorithm and fees already paid this summer is almost 80%. This confirms the high explaining power of our exclusive approach. For more information, please contact us.

Since the start of July and the launching of the brand new player ratings service, the number of pages visited on the CIES Football Observatory website was multiplied by six. This exclusive tool notably provides the most reliable estimation of the transfer value of big-5 league players currently available on the market.

The ratings module also presents the exclusive CIES Football Observatory performance index for big-5 league players, as well as data on footballers’ career paths such as, among others, experience level compared to other players and transfer fees generated over the career.

For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch

The CIES Football Observatory has extended its online offering by launching a ratings module with exclusive statistics on big-5 league players. The new resource includes indicators such as transfer value, pitch performance and level of experience.

Dr Raffaele Poli, head of the CIES Football Observatory, said, “this development is a crucial step towards our recognition as the global leader in the scientific assessment of the transfer value of professional footballers. The tool will allow us to further highlight the accuracy of the algorithm developed”.

All things being equal, a wealthier club will have to invest more to sign a player. As a result, the transfer values published refer to the fee corresponding to the type of team most likely to be interested in recruiting the player. The specific price per recruiter club is only available on a consultancy basis.

Users have the possibility to give their opinion by indicating if the transfer value estimated by the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm is lower, equal or greater than the real market price.

The ratings module also presents the sporting level of big-5 league players by means of an index taking into account performances achieved during the last 1,000 domestic league minutes in six areas of the game: rigour, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation and shooting.

Finally, the new service includes data on the career path of a player and notably the number of league matches played at adult level. The level of experience of each player is then compared to the average measured at the same age for big-5 league footballers of the same position.

For more information on the CIES Football Observatory, please contact us.

References

Transfer values and probabilities
Technical analysis of player performance
Spotting future stars

According to the CIES Football Observatory exclusive algorithm, the transfer value of players in the English squad amounts to €751 million. This figures is over €500 million for four other teams: France (€697 million), Spain (€639 million), Germany (€601 million) and Belgium (€550 million). Issue number 153 of the Weekly Post presents the data for all nations.

The total transfer value of twelve participating teams out of 24 is lower than that of the most expensive player overall: Cristiano Ronaldo (€138 million). At the bottom of the table is Hungary (€30 million), ahead of Romania (€51 million), Albania (€57 million) and Slovakia (€59 million).

For more information about the approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory research group to estimate the transfer value of professional footballers, please refer to the 16th Monthly Report. Issue number 152 of the Weekly Post presents the top 100 list of the big-5 league players with the highest transfer values. A calculator for footballers in the five major European leagues is available on the CIES Football Observatory website.

Dear subscriber,
the publication of our exclusive analysis on the transfer value of big-5 league players has generated a high level of traffic. As a consequence, the website was no more accessible. This problem is now solved (refresh the browser). We thank you for your understanding and growing interest, best regards

Raffaele Poli, head of CIES Football Observatory

Links to our website
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Transfer value calculator for big-5 league players

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Who are the footballers whose transfer value is above €100 million? Issue number 152 of the Weekly Post unveils the excusive CIES Football Observatory list of the 100 big-5 league players with the highest values from a transfer fee perspective. Besides Lionel Messi, seven other footballers currently have a transfer value of more than €100 million.

According to the CIES Football Observatory algorithm, the players whose transfer could be negotiated at more than €100 million are Messi, Neymar, Ronaldo, Griezmann, Kane, Martial, Suárez and Dybala. More information on the criteria taken into account and the methodology used is provided in the 16th edition of the Monthly Report.

Since 2013, the correlation between the transfer values predicted by the CIES Football Observatory’s algorithm and the fees actually paid for the recruitment of big-5 league players has been close to 80%. The strength of this correlation shows that, on one hand, the footballers’ transfer market is rational and, on the other, that its rationality has been well understood by the econometric model developed.

Per position, the most expensive players from a transfer fee standpoint are Thibault Courtois among goalkeepers (€48.4 million), David Alaba among centre backs (€48.8 million), Hector Bellerín among full backs (€55.6 million), Paul Pogba among central midfielders (€90.4 million), Eden Hazard among attacking midfielders (€78.3 million) and Lionel Messi among forwards (€211.1 million).

The 16th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory also presents the big-5 league players with the highest probability to be transferred for a sum of money. Among footballers with a transfer value of more than €25 million, the most likely to change team during next summer are Gonzalo Higuaín (€60.9 million), Alexandre Lacazette (€41.5 million), Michy Batshuayi (€25.2 million), Antoine Griezmann (€120.2 million) and Romelu Lukaku (€58.1 million).

For more information, please read issue number 16 of the Monthly Report. To contact us, please write at football.observatory@cies.ch

Issue number 151 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks big-5 league clubs according to the average transfer cost per player fielded. Leicester City was crowned despite the third lowest transfer expenditure at English Premier League level (€2.7 million per player). Conversely, Newcastle United could not avoid relegation despite having on average played with the 8th costliest line-up (€7.9 million per player).

In the four other major European championships, the most positive and negative gaps between the position in the transfer cost ranking and that achieved in the final table were measured for Las Palmas (+6) and Valencia (-9) in Spain; Angers (+8) and Marseille (-10) in France; Mainz (+10) and Hannover (-9) in Germany; as well as for Empoli (+7) and Palermo (-5) in Italy.

Overall, the team who fielded on average the most expensive line-up was Real Madrid (€32.2 million per player), followed by Manchester City (€27.5 million), Paris St-Germain (€27.0 million), Manchester United (€26.8 million) and Barcelona (€23.7 million). Champions League finalist Atlético Madrid ranks only 13th (€8.8 million).

David Silva heads the CIES Football Observatory table of the best performing big-5 league attacking midfielders. Manchester City’s Spaniard outranks Mesut Özil (Arsenal) and Henrik Mkhitaryan (Dortmund). In the top three positions for forwards are Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Zlatan Ibrahimovi? (Paris St-Germain) and Neymar (Barcelona). Issue number 150 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 for both positions.

Following the CIES Football Observatory statistical approach, six English Premier League players are to be found among the ten best performing attacking midfielders of the season. However, only Adam Lallana is eligible for the Three Lions team. The best ranked EPL footballer among forwards, Alexis Sánchez, is only 14th. Cristiano Ronaldo is sixth behind the youngest footballer listed: Paulo Dybala (Juventus, 22 years).

The rankings are established according to six Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), among which take on, chance creation and shooting (see table). More information is available in the 15th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. The study includes the rankings of players who out-performed the most their teammates, both per position and area of the game. This is particularly useful to unveil the potential of relatively unknown footballers

Last but not least, we also kindly invite you to visite our brand new version of our website.

According to the CIES Football Observatory analysis, Leicester City’s N’Golo Kanté is the best performing English Premier League defensive midfielder of the 2015/16 season. The French is the only EPL player in the top 10 positions. This figure is three at box-to-box midfielder level: Moussa Dembélé (Tottenham, 1st), Dele Alli (Tottenham, 4th) and Yaya Touré (Manchester City, 5th). Paul Pogba (Juventus) ranks 6th. Only footballers who played at least 60% of domestic league minutes are included.

The youngest players in the top 10 lists are Julian Weigl (Dortmund) among defensive midfielders and Dele Alli among box-to-box ones. Both players are only aged 20. The list also features 21-year-old Saúl Ñíguez. Atlético Madrid’s rising star ranks third among box-to-box midfielders of the Spanish Liga behind two great champions: World Cup winners Toni Kroos (Real Madrid) and Andrés Iniesta (Barcelona).

The analysis is based on the statistics of players in six areas of the game, weighted according to their importance per position (see table). Two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are crucial for defenders: rigour and recovery. The former area defines the ability to minimise opponents’ chances through robust duelling. The latter highlights proficient interception work. Only players fielded for at least 60% of minutes are included in the rankings.

According to our approach, the best performing full back over the 2015/16 English Premier League season was Aleksandar Kolarov (Manchester City). The Serbian is the only EPL player in the top 10 positions. Besides Nicolás Otamendi, Mamadou Sakho (Liverpool) is 10th among centre backs. The youngest footballers in the lists are Ricardo Pereira (Nice, on loan from Porto) for full backs (4th) and Samuel Umtiti (Lyon) for centre backs (9th). They are both aged 22.