The studies carried out since 2005 by the CIES Football Observatory are not only geared towards the general public, but are also useful to actors in the game. The 23rd Monthly Report illustrates an approach that allows a professional football league to analyse on an objective basis its international positioning and influence in a positive way the strategic choices of the clubs that compose it.

The example chosen is that of the Swiss Football League. This choice is a result of the trust, built up over a number of years, that this institution has shown towards the CIES Football Observatory. This trust has led to the commissioning of several studies and research reports. These documents are available freely online in both French and German on the Swiss Football League website.

The Report notably highlights that in the current context of economic polarisation, the good health of the vast majority of clubs and leagues worldwide will depend on their ability join forces in their own interests. From the sporting point of view, the emphasis must be placed on improving the protection of the work of training, and, more generally, to increase the level of solidarity in the transfer system.

The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post was published in March 2012. To celebrate this birthday, we ranked the 54 clubs always present in the big-5 leagues during the last five years according to the number of players fielded in domestic league games. Italian side Genoa used the most players overall: 137! At the opposite end of the spectrum are Athletic Club Bilbao, Bayern Munich and Borussia Mönchengladbach (55 players).

Eight of the eleven teams always present in the big-5 who fielded more than 100 players in domestic league matches since March 2012 are Italian. This reflects the very speculative transfer market approach existing in Italy. The greatest figures in squad turnover per league were recorded at Genoa (137 players), Granada (129), Sunderland (103), Nice and Stade Rennais (91, including many players from the youth academy), as well as Werder Bremen (90).

Many well-structured and performing teams fielded the fewest players during the period analysed. Among them, we notably find Bayern Munich (55 players), Paris St-Germain (64), Real Madrid (64 too), Arsenal (65) and Barcelona (66). The Weekly Post also presents the footballer who played the most domestic league minutes during the last five years for each club taken into consideration. St-Etienne’s goalkeeper Stéphane Ruffier tops the table: 16,650 minutes.

Issue number 179 of the Weekly Post presents the best performing big-5 league players in the six areas of the game that make up the exclusive CIES Football Observatory approach for the technical analysis of performance. The data refers to the last 1,000 minutes played by each player in domestic league matches. Only footballers fielded for at least 360 minutes since January 1st are included.

Nicolás Otamendi (Manchester City) heads the table for rigour ahead of Marquinhos (Paris St-Germain) and Javi Martínez (Bayern Munich). In the area of recovery, Sead Kolašinac (Schalke 04) outranks teammate Benedikt Höwedes, Xabi Alonso (Bayern Munich) and Omar Mascarell (Eintracht Frankfurt). Three players top the distribution rankings: Thiago Motta (Paris St-Germain), Jorginho and Marek Hamšík (both Naples).

Two young talents have the highest possible score for take on: Allan Saint-Maximin (Bastia, on loan from Monaco) and Adama Traoré (Middlesbrough). Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) head the tables for chance creation and shooting.

Seven players are in the top 10 rankings in two different areas: Xabi Alonso, Ander Herrera and Arturo Vidal in recovery and distribution; Toni Kroos in distribution and chance creation; Alejandro Gómez and Neymar in take on and chance creation; as well as Lionel Messi in both chance creation and shooting.

The profile of all big-5 league players is available here.

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Issue number 178 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents big-5 league players who have been for the longest consecutive period in the first team squad of their current club. Only footballers who have participated in domestic league matches during the ongoing season are taken into account.

Francesco Totti heads the overall table. The Italian world champion has been in Roma’s first team squad for 24 consecutive years (since 1993)! At second position is Chelsea’s centre back John Terry (18.5 years), followed by Juventus goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon and Caen’s defensive midfielder Nicolas Seube (both 15.5 years).

The average number of consecutive seasons in the employer club of the most loyal player per team varies between 8.6 years in the German Bundesliga and 7.7 years in the French Ligue 1. Olympique de Marseille is a very specific case as the lost loyal players fielded in domestic league games this season are present in the first team squad since 1.5 years only!

Issue number 177 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the list of footballers trained by clubs qualified for the Champions League last 16 round playing in these teams. The number of footballers trained varies between 11 for Barcelona to only one for Manchester City and Napoli.

Among the 11 players trained by Barcelona, six play for the Catalan side. The remaining ones play for five different clubs still competing in the Champions League: Benfica (Grimaldo), Dortmund (Bartra), Napoli (Reina), Bayern (Thiago Alcântara) and Paris St-Germain (Thiago Motta). The youngest Barcelona’s product, Rafinha, is already aged 24. This tends to confirm the decline of La Masia as underlined in issue number 163 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

Four Champions League clubs have trained less than three players under contract with teams participating in the last 16 round: Leicester (King, Chilwell), Juventus (Marchisio, Kean), Manchester City (Schmeichel) and Napoli (Insigne). For these teams, the training and promotion of players from the youth academy is clearly not a priority.

Goalkeepers occupy a particular status in football teams. The qualities needed to play in this position are very different from those required from outfield footballers. Issue number 22 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report compares goalkeeper characteristics with those of footballers playing in other positions.

The study confirms the specificity of the position of goalkeeper based upon criteria taken into account: height, age, origin and mobility. From the point of view of height, clubs are more and more reticent to promote goalkeepers under 190cm. This observation holds particularly in England and Germany, where the average height of goalkeepers is already over 190cm.

Regarding age, the analysis reveals the greater longevity of goalkeepers. The importance given to experience is particularly striking in England and Italy. In both cases, keepers are on average aged over 29 years. In all leagues surveyed, the regular goalkeepers are significantly older than the reserve ones.

From the standpoint of origin, the Report shows that the labour market for goalkeepers is much less international than that of outfield players. The difference is particularly noteworthy with respect to forwards. The study also indicates that the gap in the percentage of expatriates between goalies and outfielders tends to increase.

Finally, the analysis highlights the greater stability of goalkeepers. Their average length of stay in their employer club is much longer than for outfielders. In this case too, the biggest difference was observed in comparison to forwards. The latter are the most mobile in the football players’ labour market.

What is the common feature between Dele Alli, Renato Sanches, Christian Pulisic and Gianluigi Donnarumma? They are all the most experienced players in their age group among those under contract with clubs of 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations. Issue number 176 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 20 list in the experience rankings for players born in 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999.

Experience refers to games played in adult championships since the start of the career. Each match is weighted according to an exclusive classification method that takes into account the performance of national association representatives in European club competitions, the division of employer clubs at national level and results achieved by the latter during the semester in which matches were played. The 14th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report provides more information.

According to this method, Dele Alli (Tottenham) tops the experience rankings for players born in 1996 ahead of Julian Brandt (Bayer Leverkusen) and Timo Werner (RB Leipzig). Renato Sanches (Bayern Munich) and Rúben Neves (Porto) heads the table for 1997-born footballers, while Christian Pulisic (Borussia Dortmund) and Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) top the rankings for players born in 1998 and 1999. They are all destined for greatness.

Issue number 175 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents a networked representation of fee paying deals having involved big-5 league teams during the last transfer window. Clubs in the five major European championships have invested a record amount of 742 million € to sign new players. The previous record, 523 million €, was established in 2011.

Globally, 142 players have been transferred for money from and/or to big-5 league clubs for a total figure of 921 M €. Deals internal to the five major championships represented 48.8% of the total volume of transactions (450 M €). The remaining money is subdivised into the recruitment of players from clubs outside the big-5 (292 M €) and the selling of players to non big-5 league clubs (179 M €), in particular to China (120 M €).

The highest volume of transactions concerned English Premier League clubs (443 M €). At second position is the French Ligue 1 (225 M €), while the Spanish Liga is at the bottom of the table (64 M €). Surprisingly, the commercial balance for the Premier League is positive (+51 M € taking into account add-ons but not including the signing of Gabriel Jesus by Manchester City concluded since last summer) and very negative for the Ligue 1 (-150 M € following the international recruitment of players such as Draxler, Guedes, Payet or Depay).

Issue number 174 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents players who made their debut in the professional game after July 1st 2016 fielded during the current season in domestic league matches by a big-5 league club. The analysis notably highlights the key role played by the French top division in the promotion of young talents.

The French Ligue 1 holds record figures for both the number of debutants (29) and total domestic league minutes played (11,129). At the opposite end of the spectrum is the English Premier League: 12 debutants and 907 minutes. At club level, the record figures were observed at Montpellier, Metz, Toulouse and Espanyol for the number of debutants (4), as well as at Nice for minutes played (2,245).

The most fielded debutants per league are Malang Sarr (Nice) in France (1,964 minutes), Aarón Martín (Espanyol) in Spain (1,147 minutes), Pol Lirola (Sassuolo) in Italy (1,022 minutes), Ousman Manneh (Werder) in Germany (488 minutes) and Harry Winks (Tottenham) in England (357 minutes).

Issue number 173 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the gap between the value of squads and transfer fee expenditure to assemble them. This analysis allows us highlighting the most and least efficient clubs from a player economic valorisation perspective. For the vast majority of teams, the gap is positive. Indeed, the study does not take into account costs that the replacement of squad members would generate.

At the top of the table is Barcelona. This is mainly due to the great economic valorisation of Lionel Messi (from 0 € as a youth academy product to the current estimated transfer value of 170.5 M €) and Neymar (from 87 to 246.8 M €). In the top positions of the rankings mainly are well performing teams focusing on the training and/or long term recruitment of young talents. Second-ranked club Tottenham Hotspur is the perfect illustration of this strategy.

Conversely, at the bottom of the table are above all clubs having recently achieved poor results with respect to transfer fee investments in assembling the squad such as Hamburg, Wolfsburg, Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Valencia and Schalke 04. Paris St-Germain’s last position is rather due to expensive recruitments and the lower Ligue 1 status compared to the four other major European leagues.

Neymar is by far the big-5 league player with the highest transfer value. The Brazilian prodigy outranks Lionel Messi and Paul Pogba. Data presented in issue number 172 of the Weekly Post is computed by means of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer value algorithm.

Since 2012, the CIES Football Observatory research team has developed a unique approach to estimate on a scientific basis the transfer value of professional football players. The statistical model through which fair prices are calculated includes multiple variables on player performance (minutes, goals, etc.) and characteristics (age, contract, etc.), as well as data on employer clubs and potential recruiting ones.

The big-5 league player with the highest estimated transfer value is Neymar: 246.8 million €. The Barcelona’s forward is clearly ahead teammate Lionel Messi (170.5 M €) and Paul Pogba (155.3 M €). Ten players have an estimated value of more than 100 M €. In the top 100 list are 42 players from the English Premier League.

The highest values per position were recorded for Jan Oblak among goalkeepers (59.8 M €), Raphaël Varane among centre backs (64 M €), Héctor Bellerín among full backs (70.3 M €), Paul Pogba among central midfielders (155.3 M €), Dele Alli among attacking midfielders (110.5 M €) and Neymar among forwards (246.8 M €).

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The 21st Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory presents a predictive analysis of the final rankings of the big-5 European leagues. The prediction is based on a multivariate statistical model taking into account the offensive and defensive performances of big-5 league teams until the 31st December 2016, as well as the level of their grip on the game.

The analysis highlights that four out of the five current leaders are the most likely champions: Chelsea in the English Premier League, Real Madrid in the Spanish Liga, Bayern Munich in the German Bundesliga and Juventus in the Italian Serie A. However, in the French Ligue 1, Monaco should overtake Paris St-Germain and Nice.

According to our approach, despite recent wins, Manchester United won’t be able to rank higher than sixth. Liverpool will finish second ahead of Manchester City and Arsenal. In Germany, Hamburg will be relegated for the first time in its history. In Italy, Inter will only rank fifth, while Milan AC will downgrade to seventh position. Let’s us wait a few months to see how accurate these predictions will prove to be.