Neymar is by far the big-5 league player with the highest transfer value. The Brazilian prodigy outranks Lionel Messi and Paul Pogba. Data presented in issue number 172 of the Weekly Post is computed by means of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer value algorithm.

Since 2012, the CIES Football Observatory research team has developed a unique approach to estimate on a scientific basis the transfer value of professional football players. The statistical model through which fair prices are calculated includes multiple variables on player performance (minutes, goals, etc.) and characteristics (age, contract, etc.), as well as data on employer clubs and potential recruiting ones.

The big-5 league player with the highest estimated transfer value is Neymar: 246.8 million €. The Barcelona’s forward is clearly ahead teammate Lionel Messi (170.5 M €) and Paul Pogba (155.3 M €). Ten players have an estimated value of more than 100 M €. In the top 100 list are 42 players from the English Premier League.

The highest values per position were recorded for Jan Oblak among goalkeepers (59.8 M €), Raphaël Varane among centre backs (64 M €), Héctor Bellerín among full backs (70.3 M €), Paul Pogba among central midfielders (155.3 M €), Dele Alli among attacking midfielders (110.5 M €) and Neymar among forwards (246.8 M €).

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The 21st Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory presents a predictive analysis of the final rankings of the big-5 European leagues. The prediction is based on a multivariate statistical model taking into account the offensive and defensive performances of big-5 league teams until the 31st December 2016, as well as the level of their grip on the game.

The analysis highlights that four out of the five current leaders are the most likely champions: Chelsea in the English Premier League, Real Madrid in the Spanish Liga, Bayern Munich in the German Bundesliga and Juventus in the Italian Serie A. However, in the French Ligue 1, Monaco should overtake Paris St-Germain and Nice.

According to our approach, despite recent wins, Manchester United won’t be able to rank higher than sixth. Liverpool will finish second ahead of Manchester City and Arsenal. In Germany, Hamburg will be relegated for the first time in its history. In Italy, Inter will only rank fifth, while Milan AC will downgrade to seventh position. Let’s us wait a few months to see how accurate these predictions will prove to be.

Year after year, the CIES Football Observatory research team has developed a powerful approach for the technical analysis of player performance. On the basis of this methodology, issue number 171 of the Weekly Post presents the 10 best performing big-5 league players per position. Cristiano Ronaldo heads the table for forwards ahead of Lionel Messi.

To be eligible, a player must have been fielded for at least 900 domestic league minutes so far. Moreover, rankings make the distinction between full international players and footballers who did not yet play for a national A-team. The latter rankings allows us highlighting the top level performances of many players who are still relatively unknown.

The highest score overall was recorded for Real Madrid’s striker Cristiano Ronaldo: 94. This figure is one point higher than that measured for Barcelona’s Lionel Messi. In other positions, the best performing players so far have been Manuel Neuer and Stéphane Ruffier among goalkeepers, Mats Hummels among centre backs, Alex Sandro among full backs, Thiago Alcântara and Paul Pogba among central midfielders, as well as Kevin de Bruyne and Philippe Coutinho among attacking midfielders.

The highest score overall for non full internationals was observed for Marcos Alonso (Chelsea) and Jonathan Viera (Las Palmas): 87. The youngest footballers in the top 10 lists for players yet to be selected for national A-teams are Yann Karamoh (Caen), born in 1998, Allan Saint-Maximin (Bastia, on loan from Monaco) and Jesús Vallejo (Eintracht Frankfurt, on loan from Real Madrid), both born in 1997.

Issue number 170 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the number of players fielded in domestic league matches from July 1st 2016 onwards by clubs in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations. The record values were observed for the Finnish champions Mariehamn (17 players) and the Croatian side RNK Split (37 players).

At big-5 league level, the teams having fielded the most players are not in the top positions of the table in their respective league: Werder Bremen (30 players, 14th), Osasuna (29, 20th) or Lorient (28, 20th). Conversely, Chelsea (1st), Bayern Munich (1st), RB Leipzig (2nd) and Nice (1st) are among the clubs having used the least footballers.

This analysis shows that quality is the key criterion to assemble successful squads. It also highlights that too much turnover does not allow teams to significantly improve their performance standards. The data for all teams in the 31 top division leagues surveyed are available in the CIES Football Observatory Digital Atlas.

We wish you a happy new year, with plenty of exciting football matches and statistics!

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Issue number 20 of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report investigates the international mobility of minors in football. It reveals that the number of players who left their country before to turn 18 has reached a new record high in 2016. English clubs are by far the most active in the international recruitment of minors.

Almost 600 footballers having moved abroad before the age of 18 currently play in 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations. For almost one third of them, the first foreign destination was England. The second biggest importing country for minor players is Italy. In terms of origins, the most represented nations are Belgium, Sweden, France, Hungary and Austria.

As fully developed in the book Slow foot (only available in French), the Report indicates that “players having left their country under the age of 18 have, on average, less rewarding careers than footballers who left later with more experience under their belt”. The authors claim that “the premature international migration of inexperienced players poses serious risks for both the footballers concerned and the teams recruiting them”.

According to Drs. Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson, “unfortunately, in spite of all sporting logic, and in an overly speculative context where numerous actors make their living out of player transfers, the international flow of minors increases with each year”. Far from being solved, the issue of the transfers of minors in professional football will certainly still receive considerable attention in the years to come.

Read the Report here

Issue number 169 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights clubs whose footballers have played the most minutes in national A-team matches in 2016. At the top of the table is Juventus. Throughout the year, twenty-one players from the Italian team have taken part in 157 international matches for a total of 12,454 minutes.

In the top three positions of the rankings also are Tottenham Hotspur (19 players, 155 matches, 12,009 minutes) and Barcelona (20 players, 134 matches, 10,802 minutes). Six English clubs are in the top ten positions: Tottenham (2nd), Arsenal (4th), Manchester United (6th), Manchester City (8th), Southampton (9th) and Chelsea (10th).

The best ranked team outside the big-5 European leagues is Fenerbahçe: 13th (18 players, 94 matches, 7,011 minutes). The Thai club Muang Thong United occupies the highest position for a team outside UEFA member countries: 17th (10 players, 84 matches, 6,611 minutes). Teams from 42 associations are to be found in the top 100.