The valuation is based on an econometric model created by the CIES Football Observatory research team from the analysis of over 1,500 paying fee transfers occurred since 2010. The criteria taken into account refer to both the performance and personal characteristics of players (age, position, contract duration, etc.), as well as to the competition level and results of their employer club and national team represented (if any).

More information on the indicators included in the algorithm is available in the sixth edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. Moreover, a player value calculator is freely available online here. It is based on a less sophisticated algorithm including only data accessible to the general public. Although less precise than the statistical model used for these estimates, its predictive power is also high.

The estimated transfer value of Lionel Messi, 251 million €, is 17 million € below that of last June. This is mainly due to the fact that the Argentinean prodigy, who will turn 29 next June, has entered the final phase of his career. Despite outstanding performance levels and transfer cost inflation, his value probably already reached a peak.

Contrary to Messi’s transfer value, that of Neymar has heavily increased since June 2015: from 94 to 153 million €. In 2015, the 23-year-old Brazilian scored 25 goals in 34 appearances in the Spanish Liga, as well as 9 goals in 12 matches at Champions League level. A further increase in Neymar’s transfer value will depend on the outcome of negotiations concerning his contract at Barcelona, which currently runs until 2018.

The third highest transfer value recorded was for Eden Hazard. As for Messi, the value of the Belgian star decreased since June 2015: from 142 to 130 million €. This is mainly due to the poor performances of Chelsea during the first semester of the current season. Hazard himself did not perform at his best. However, the attacking midfielder, recently also fielded as a forward, is still a sure value of world football.

In fourth position is Cristiano Ronaldo. The transfer value of the Portuguese went also slightly down since last June: from 119 to “only” 114 million €. This is mainly due to the age factor: Real Madrid’s striker is set to turn 31 next February. With Santi Cazorla, Ronaldo is the only player aged 30 or over in the top 100 positions of the ranking. This reflects his outstanding talent and performances.

The fifth most valuable player is Harry Kane: 91 million €. This is 35 million € more than in June 2015. During the first months of the current season, the 22 year-old-striker confirmed his extraordinary skills. Moreover, the good results achieved by his employer club, Tottenham, contributed to increase his value. With the same performances on an individual level and Champions League qualification, Kane’s value will probably reach the 100-million € mark at the end of the season.

From sixth to tenth position are other top class attacking players: Raheem Sterling, Antoine Griezmann, Luis Suárez, Sergio Agüero and Alexis Sánchez. The transfer values of Anthony Martial, Paul Pogba, Kevin de Bruyne, Philippe Coutinho and Thomas Müller are also above 70 million €, while those of Robert Lewandowski, Gareth Bale and Romelu Lukaku are just below.

The top 100 list is freely available on the CIES Football Observatory’s website. The data on the 30 most valuable big-5 league club teenagers is available on request at football.observatory@cies.ch.

The analysis of the CIES Football Observatory is 100% data-driven from statistics provided by OptaPro. It takes into account the technical performance of players at big-5 league level since January 1st 2015 in six key areas of the game. More explanations are available in issue number 5 of the Monthly Report. From a broader perspective, the 7th Report presents the exclusive CIES Football Observatory approach for sustainable success.

Outfield players are divided into six positions: centre backs, full backs, defence-oriented central midfielders, attack-oriented central midfielders, attacking midfielders and forwards. Only footballers who played at least 2,250 minutes, equivalent to 25 full big-5 league matches, were included in the rankings.

On the basis of our analysis, the CIES Football Observatory dream team (4-2-3-1) is composed as follows: Neuer; D. Alves, T. Silva, Chiellini, Monreal; Gündogan, Cazorla; Özil, de Bruyne, Hazard; Messi. The dream team for U23 players, born after 1st January 1993, is composed as such: Karius; Bellerín, Umiti, Varane, Wendell; Tolisso, Pogba; B. Silva, Barkley, F. Anderson; Dybala.

Despite top level performances, several players do not appear in the tables as they were not fielded for at least 2,250 minutes in big-5 league games in 2015. This is notably the case of Z. Ibrahimovi?, M. Salah and S. Agüero among forwards; D. Silva, J. Navas and D. Perotti among attacking midfielders; M. Verratti, Y. Touré and A. Ramsey among central midfielders; L. Kurzawa, A. Kolarov and J. Alba among full backs; as well as D. Luiz, J. Boateng and D. Alaba among centre backs.

For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

Seven out of the 10 top ranked clubs qualified for the Champions League knockout stage. The only exceptions are Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Inter Milan. The last two clubs did not even participate in the competition. However, the Italian side is currently at the top of the Serie A table.

Real Madrid is the team with the most footballers with national A-team caps in 2015: 19 players. At second position is Manchester United (18). Louis van Gaal’s team outranks Chelsea, Tottenham and Juventus (17 players each). In total, Manchester United players represented 10 national selections. Sergio Romero played more games for Argentina (13) than for Manchester United (4).

List of players

• Sergio Romero, 13 matches for Argentina
• Marcos Rojo, 11 matches for Argentina
• M. Darmian, 10 matches for Italy
• Daley Blind, 9 matches for the Netherlands
• Wayne Rooney, 8 matches for England
• Morgan Schneiderlin, 8 matches for France
• Memphis Depay, 8 matches for the Netherlands
• Phil Jones, 7 matches for England
• Bastian Schweinsteiger, 6 matches for Germany
• Chris Smalling, 6 matches for England
• Anthony Martial, 6 matches for France
• Marouane Fellaini, 6 matches for Belgium
• Patrick McNair, 5 matches for Northern Ireland
• Antonio Valencia, 4 matches for Ecuador
• Juan Mata, 4 matches for Spain
• David De Gea, 4 matches for Spain
• Michael Carrick, 3 matches for England
• Luke Shaw, 2 matches for England

Nowadays, throughout Europe, players with the disadvantages of being born in the last months of the year and of later physical development have little chance of pursuing a career at a high level. The authors recommend to organisations in charge of the development of youth players and the game to “take the question of the relative age effect seriously”.

According to the Report, the limiting of the selection bias linked to the date of birth and to the level of physical development would reinforce meritocracy in football. Over the long term, such a step forward would be beneficial not only to the level of spectacle that teams are able to provide, but also on the level of balance of competitions.

English players are the only ones born on average after July 1st, the average date of birth of a typical citizen. This can be explained by the fact that age classes in English football are based on the cut-off date used by the school system, the 1st September, and not the 1st January as in other countries. Consequently, the least represented players among English professional footballers are those born in August and not in December as in the 30 other associations surveyed.

Issue number 128 of the Big-5 Weekly Post presents the data on the average day of birth of players for each club of the five major European leagues. In 23 teams only, this date is after July 1st. The extreme values were recorded at Fiorentina (20 April) and Southampton (11 August).

In two other clubs only, the average transfer expenditure for player on the pitch is above 20 million €: Chelsea (21.9) and Barcelona (21.3). This figure goes down to 16.1 million € at Arsenal, 15.8 million € at Liverpool, 11.1 million € at Tottenham … and 2.5 million € for Leicester City.

On average, Bayern Munich (15.4 million €) and Juventus (14.4 million €) also spent only half per player than Real Madrid, Manchester City, Manchester United and Paris St-Germain. This finding highlights the great discrepancies existing up to the very top of the football pyramid.

All the data is available here.

In total, the 2,165 footballers fielded so far by big-5 league teams have played in 1,276 clubs from the start of their career at adult level to their 23rd birthday. At the top of the table of teams having contributed most to the development of these players is Real Madrid Castilla. Up until 23 years of age, 45 footballers under contract with big-5 league teams have played for the team currently coached by Zinédine Zidane. Among them, we notably find Juan Mata (Manchester United), Alvaro Negredo (Valencia) and Roberto Soldado (Villarreal).

For comparability reasons, the player development index only considers domestic league games. A match played before the age of 21 is weighted double with respect to a game played between 21 and 23 years of age. Moreover, the values are weighted according to the current employment rate of players in order to give more weight to teams having developed the most fielded footballers.

The team who contributed most to the development of Premier League players is Southampton, followed by Aston Villa and Dutch side Ajax Amsterdam. Chelsea and Everton also rank in the top five positions.

At the top of the tables in the remaining big-5 leagues are Empoli for Italian Serie A players, Bayer Leverkusen for German Bundesliga, Barcelona B for Spanish Liga and Olympique Lyonnais for French Ligue 1 footballers. Issue number 126 of the CIES Football Observatory Big-5 Weekly Post presents the data for the top 40 clubs per league.

The player development index could be particularly useful for leagues, national associations and international football governing bodies to set up systems of financial equalisation and/or reward mechanisms incentivising more teams to promote both the training and fielding of young talents. Over the long term, this would have a positive effect on football as a whole.

For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch