What is the common feature between Dele Alli, Renato Sanches, Christian Pulisic and Gianluigi Donnarumma? They are all the most experienced players in their age group among those under contract with clubs of 31 top division leagues of UEFA member associations. Issue number 176 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 20 list in the experience rankings for players born in 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999.

Experience refers to games played in adult championships since the start of the career. Each match is weighted according to an exclusive classification method that takes into account the performance of national association representatives in European club competitions, the division of employer clubs at national level and results achieved by the latter during the semester in which matches were played. The 14th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report provides more information.

According to this method, Dele Alli (Tottenham) tops the experience rankings for players born in 1996 ahead of Julian Brandt (Bayer Leverkusen) and Timo Werner (RB Leipzig). Renato Sanches (Bayern Munich) and Rúben Neves (Porto) heads the table for 1997-born footballers, while Christian Pulisic (Borussia Dortmund) and Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) top the rankings for players born in 1998 and 1999. They are all destined for greatness.

Issue number 175 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents a networked representation of fee paying deals having involved big-5 league teams during the last transfer window. Clubs in the five major European championships have invested a record amount of 742 million € to sign new players. The previous record, 523 million €, was established in 2011.

Globally, 142 players have been transferred for money from and/or to big-5 league clubs for a total figure of 921 M €. Deals internal to the five major championships represented 48.8% of the total volume of transactions (450 M €). The remaining money is subdivised into the recruitment of players from clubs outside the big-5 (292 M €) and the selling of players to non big-5 league clubs (179 M €), in particular to China (120 M €).

The highest volume of transactions concerned English Premier League clubs (443 M €). At second position is the French Ligue 1 (225 M €), while the Spanish Liga is at the bottom of the table (64 M €). Surprisingly, the commercial balance for the Premier League is positive (+51 M € taking into account add-ons but not including the signing of Gabriel Jesus by Manchester City concluded since last summer) and very negative for the Ligue 1 (-150 M € following the international recruitment of players such as Draxler, Guedes, Payet or Depay).

Issue number 174 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents players who made their debut in the professional game after July 1st 2016 fielded during the current season in domestic league matches by a big-5 league club. The analysis notably highlights the key role played by the French top division in the promotion of young talents.

The French Ligue 1 holds record figures for both the number of debutants (29) and total domestic league minutes played (11,129). At the opposite end of the spectrum is the English Premier League: 12 debutants and 907 minutes. At club level, the record figures were observed at Montpellier, Metz, Toulouse and Espanyol for the number of debutants (4), as well as at Nice for minutes played (2,245).

The most fielded debutants per league are Malang Sarr (Nice) in France (1,964 minutes), Aarón Martín (Espanyol) in Spain (1,147 minutes), Pol Lirola (Sassuolo) in Italy (1,022 minutes), Ousman Manneh (Werder) in Germany (488 minutes) and Harry Winks (Tottenham) in England (357 minutes).

Issue number 173 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the gap between the value of squads and transfer fee expenditure to assemble them. This analysis allows us highlighting the most and least efficient clubs from a player economic valorisation perspective. For the vast majority of teams, the gap is positive. Indeed, the study does not take into account costs that the replacement of squad members would generate.

At the top of the table is Barcelona. This is mainly due to the great economic valorisation of Lionel Messi (from 0 € as a youth academy product to the current estimated transfer value of 170.5 M €) and Neymar (from 87 to 246.8 M €). In the top positions of the rankings mainly are well performing teams focusing on the training and/or long term recruitment of young talents. Second-ranked club Tottenham Hotspur is the perfect illustration of this strategy.

Conversely, at the bottom of the table are above all clubs having recently achieved poor results with respect to transfer fee investments in assembling the squad such as Hamburg, Wolfsburg, Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Valencia and Schalke 04. Paris St-Germain’s last position is rather due to expensive recruitments and the lower Ligue 1 status compared to the four other major European leagues.

Neymar is by far the big-5 league player with the highest transfer value. The Brazilian prodigy outranks Lionel Messi and Paul Pogba. Data presented in issue number 172 of the Weekly Post is computed by means of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory transfer value algorithm.

Since 2012, the CIES Football Observatory research team has developed a unique approach to estimate on a scientific basis the transfer value of professional football players. The statistical model through which fair prices are calculated includes multiple variables on player performance (minutes, goals, etc.) and characteristics (age, contract, etc.), as well as data on employer clubs and potential recruiting ones.

The big-5 league player with the highest estimated transfer value is Neymar: 246.8 million €. The Barcelona’s forward is clearly ahead teammate Lionel Messi (170.5 M €) and Paul Pogba (155.3 M €). Ten players have an estimated value of more than 100 M €. In the top 100 list are 42 players from the English Premier League.

The highest values per position were recorded for Jan Oblak among goalkeepers (59.8 M €), Raphaël Varane among centre backs (64 M €), Héctor Bellerín among full backs (70.3 M €), Paul Pogba among central midfielders (155.3 M €), Dele Alli among attacking midfielders (110.5 M €) and Neymar among forwards (246.8 M €).

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The 21st Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory presents a predictive analysis of the final rankings of the big-5 European leagues. The prediction is based on a multivariate statistical model taking into account the offensive and defensive performances of big-5 league teams until the 31st December 2016, as well as the level of their grip on the game.

The analysis highlights that four out of the five current leaders are the most likely champions: Chelsea in the English Premier League, Real Madrid in the Spanish Liga, Bayern Munich in the German Bundesliga and Juventus in the Italian Serie A. However, in the French Ligue 1, Monaco should overtake Paris St-Germain and Nice.

According to our approach, despite recent wins, Manchester United won’t be able to rank higher than sixth. Liverpool will finish second ahead of Manchester City and Arsenal. In Germany, Hamburg will be relegated for the first time in its history. In Italy, Inter will only rank fifth, while Milan AC will downgrade to seventh position. Let’s us wait a few months to see how accurate these predictions will prove to be.