The CIES Football Observatory is breaking new ground with four summer reports on the highly topical issue of the football calendar congestion and players workload. The studies will be published on a weekly basis from next week, and will focus on three key areas and actors within the global football calendar ecosystem.

• Week 1 (ending 12 July) – Competitions
• Week 2 (ending 19 July) – Clubs
• Week 3 (ending 26 July) – Players
• Week 4 (ending 2 August) – Final report and further insights

The reports will individually and together help to gain a better understanding of the trends observed over the last twelve years in terms of the number and frequency of matches played worldwide, both in absolute terms and according to the organisers (leagues, associations, confederations, FIFA, etc.), and also in terms of matches and minutes players appear throughout their seasons. They will also provide an analysis of the impact of planned changes to the format of certain competitions (continental club competitions, FIFA Club World Cup, etc.), amongst other datapoints and insights.

Other new features are already available on the CIES Football Observatory website, including improved versions of the Transfer Value Tool and the Demographic Atlas, not to mention the other tools exclusively developed, such as the Migration Atlas and the Performance Stats Tool.

The 468th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the teams qualified for the Euro 2024 from multiple perspectives. The analysis of squad competitiveness, calculated through an index weighting the minutes played over the last year by footballers selected by the sporting level of their matches, highlights Germany and Spain as the favourites.

France and England are the other two most likely semi-finalists, with Portugal close behind. Regarding the aggregated transfer value of squad members, estimated using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model, England (€1.69 billion) is ahead of France (€1.41 billion) and Portugal (€1.22 billion). On an individual level, Jude Bellingham outranks the fresh Real Madrid signing Kylian Mbappé and Phil Foden.

The Post also presents data on the demographics of squads. In terms of age, the values range from 28.8 years for Scotland to 25.8 years for the Czech Republic. Regarding height, the extremes are 186.5 cm for Serbia and 181.6 cm for Spain. In terms of the proportion of footballers playing for clubs outside the country represented, the percentages range from 100% for Denmark and Albania to 8% for England.

The 467th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 clubs in the world with the most followers on four social media: Facebook, X, Instagram and TikTok. Recent UEFA Champions League winners Real Madrid lead the way with 411 million followers, ahead of Barcelona (361 million) and Manchester United (216 million).

Fifteenth, Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr is the most followed non-European team (54 million). The Saudis are ahead of Brazil’s Flamengo (also 54 million) and Egypt’s Al-Ahly (51 million). Twenty-five countries are represented in the top 100, with a maximum of 18 clubs for Spain, followed by England (17), Brazil (12) and Mexico (6).

The biggest increases over the past year among the teams in the top 100 were recorded for Real Madrid (+48 million followers), Inter Miami (+31 million), Manchester City (+27 million) and Al-Nassr (+22 million). In relative terms, the biggest growth was observed for Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami (+1,348%).

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England’s Jude Bellingham is currently the player in the world with the highest value on the transfer market. According to the CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model*, after a very successful first season at Real Madrid, with just a few days to go before the Champions League final, his fair price has now reached €280m**. Access the top 100 here.

Manchester City’s striker Erling Haaland is the second highest-valued player (€255m). The outstanding Norwegian goal scorer is ahead of Real Madrid’s Brazilian duo Vinícius Júnior (€241m) and Rodrygo Goes (€221m), as well as teammate Phil Foden (€204m). Also in the top ten are two Arsenal players (Bukayo Saka and Martin Ödegaard), a third Citizen (Julián Álvarez), Barcelona’s prodigy Lamine Yamal, and Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz.

In the other positions, Borussia Dortmund’s and Switzerland’s Gregor Kobel tops the table for goalkeepers, Arsenal’s Frenchman William Saliba for centre backs, Manchester City’s Croatian Joško Gvardiol for full backs and Real Madrid’s Uruguayan Federico Valverde for defensive midfielders. Endrick Felipe from Palmeiras (on loan from Real Madrid) has the top estimated transfer value among non-European based players (€92m).

* Built on around 5,500 paid transfers, the CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model explains more than 85% of the differences in the fees invested by clubs on the basis of criteria such as age, length of contract, minutes, the proportion of the latter as a starter, the sporting level of matches played, results, the economic strength of the player’s club and league, that of potential buyers, the level of inflation, etc.

** Estimates refer to 100% of transfer fees, including add-ons, with no consideration of eventual buy-out clauses.

Women’s football steadily grows and the process of professionalisation is continuing. Although still comparatively less available than for men, data on the demographic profile of female players is now more accessible for women too. The 96th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the composition of 223 teams from 19 leagues around the world: 14 European and 5 non-European.

On average, the clubs studied played with footballers aged 25.2. Northern European teams are the most focused on using young female footballers, while two non-European leagues are the oldest: Brasileiro Feminino and the NWLS in the USA. The figures for today’s UEFA Champions League finalists are 27.2 years for Olympique Lyonnais and 25.9 years for Barcelona.

In terms of the main origins of expatriates, with 159 women footballers playing abroad in the leagues studied, the United States confirms its leadership in this field. Canadians and Swedes are also migrating in large numbers (60 expatriates in both cases). The wide range of origins involved (97 nationalities) bears witness to the geographical expansion of women’s football.

Clubs in financially stronger leagues tend to rely on more experienced players, as well as on more footballers imported from abroad. This is particularly the case for the English Women’s Super League, where the average age of players in the teams is 28.8 years, and where expatriates played 61.3% of the minutes. Olympique Lyonnais are at 51.1% and Barcelona at 27.3%. May the best team win!

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Good squad planning is a key factor in the success of clubs. The 465th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks almost 800 clubs from 59 leagues around the world according to a continuity index that considers the stability of the squad, its age structure and the contract policy*. This allows us revealing the teams that are both the most stable and the best prepared to maintain a good level of stability in the seasons to come.

Arsenal tops the table ahead of another English team qualified for next season’s Champions League, Aston Villa, with Premier League winners Manchester City fourth. Germany’s Borussia Mönchengladbach are third, suggesting an improvement in performance after a disappointing 2023/24 season, provided the club does not decide to dramatically change its policy. City Football Group’s members New York City are fifth.

In the top ten positions of the rankings also are other clubs with an outstanding squad management policy such as English Premier League’s Brentford, the Belgians of Union St-Gilloise, German champions Bayer Leverkusen, the Ukrainians of Rukh Lviv and Spanish Liga’s Real Sociedad. At the opposite end of the table, we mainly find under-performing teams from leagues with a relatively low level of competitiveness.

* Stability is measured by the number of players fielded in the league over the last three seasons, age structure by the percentage of minutes in the current season by footballers aged 31 or over (excluding goalkeepers) and contract policy by the proportion of minutes by footballers whose contracts expire no later than the end of 2025. The continuity index is the average of the three variables indexed on a base of 100, with the maximum for the lowest turnover and the lowest dependence on ageing or short-contract players.

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