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Transfer value: Messi, the 280 million euro man

The CIES Football Observatory is also proud to be able to present for the first time the probabilities of fee paying transfers for big-5 league players. This was a major achievement of the research work carried out by our academic team during the last year. Many expensive footballers are to be found in the top-100 of this ranking, such as Raheem Sterling, Alexis Sánchez, Antoine Griezmann, Harry Kane and Philippe Coutinho.

More information is available in issue number 115 of the Big-5 Weekly Post (the last before the summer break). The full data is presented in the sixth edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. This publication also explains the unique methodology developed by our research team to estimate both transfer values and transfer probabilities of football players.

Assessment of the big-5 league predictions

U21 players: Premier League at the bottom of the table

The clubs per league having the most relied on U21 players are Monaco (34.6%), Valencia (25.5%), Empoli (23.3%), Bayer Leverkusen (23.1%) and Liverpool (19.8%). Conversely, U21 footballers played less than 2% of minutes in 27 teams out of 98, including at Champions League finalists Barcelona and Juventus.

All the data is available in issue number 113 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

Performance analysis : best clubs and players of the season

For more information, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

The power of youth: age of first-team inclusion

Best performing U23 players: Phil Jones & Co

At the head of the tables per position are Phil Jones (Manchester United) for centre backs, Layvin Kurzawa (Monaco) for full backs, Marco Verratti (Paris St-Germain) for defensive midfielders, Isco Alarcón (Real Madrid) for attacking midfielders and Felipe Anderson (Lazio) for forwards.

In the top-3 positions of the rankings are not only well known players such as Raphaël Varane (Real Madrid), David Alaba (Bayern Munich) or Paul Pogba (Juventus), but also less renowned talents such as José Giménez (Atlético Madrid), Ricardo Rodríguez (Wolfsburg), Granit Xhaka (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Bernardo Silva (Monaco) and Clinton N’Jie (Lyon).

The rankings are based on the CIES Football Observatory exclusive Key performance indicators in the following areas of the game:

  • Shooting: ability to take advantage of goal opportunities through accurate shooting.
  • Chance creation: ability to put teammates in a favourable position to strike.
  • Take on: ability to create dangerous situations by successfully challenging opponents.
  • Distribution: ability to keep a hold on the game through efficient passing.
  • Recovery: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through proficient interception work.
  • Rigour: ability to minimise goal opportunities for opponents through robust duelling.

Competitive balance: best teams more dominant than ever

Teams of the moment: Borussia Dortmund tops the table

New Monthly Report: who will win the Champions League?

Player development: the big-5 leagues in a dependant situation

Players of the moment: Messi top, Ronaldo down

Big-5 Weekly Post on full internationals

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