Our predictions are based on the analysis of player profile data from the perspective of “experience” (number of matches played and results achieved), “prolificacy” (number of goals scored and level of the competition) and “stability” (number of seasons with the employer club and years remaining on contract).

Using these indicators, we have classified teams by taking into account the 11 players with the highest scores (potential “starting 11”), as well as squad members ranked between the 12th and 22nd positions (“substitutes”). The final ranking has been estimated on the basis of the average position in the two tables. In case of equality, we ranked teams according to their overall score.

Manchester United and Paris St-Germain are the only two most probable champions ranked in first position for both “starting 11” and “substitute” players. While the competitive advantage of Borussia Dortmund is mainly related to the 11 players with the highest scores, and that of Juventus is due to the quality of substitutes. The same holds true for Real Madrid with respect to Barcelona.

Monaco is the only promoted team with a real chance of finishing the season in the top three of their domestic league. Conversely, this year many prestigious teams risk being sucked into a fight against relegation (Fulham, Levante, Valenciennes, Werder Bremen, Torino, etc.).

Using the indicators described above, we were also able to identify the players with the highest scores, and whose performance levels should have the greatest impact on results obtained by their respective teams (key players).

The full predictions may be downloaded from the CIES Football Observatory website. We are at your disposal for more information at football.observatory@cies.ch

With xxx million euro invested for new players, English teams were the most active. It is the highest level ever recorded. A new record high was also measured in France (383 million euro) and Germany (259 million).

The transfer expenditure of the 10 clubs that spent the most account for 49.2% of fees paid. This figure is at an all-time high and reflects the growing concentration of wealth in top level football. The percentage of fees paid by the three most active clubs per league varies from 85.8% in France to 45.6% in England.

More information is presented in the issue 45 of the Big-5 Weekly Post. For further enquiries, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch

The new edition of the Big-5 Weekly Post is now available here (issue 44).

The Post includes the 20 latest paying transfers concerning players who were employed by big-5 league teams during the second semester of the season 2012/13.

The CIES Football Observatory estimation takes into account a multitude of variables such as players’ pitch performances (notably the number of matches and goals), length of contract remaining, age, position and international experience.

More information is presented in the 2013 edition of our Annual Review. The publication is on sale in the online shop of the International Centre for Sports Studies.

Students, academics and journalists may ask for a discount by writing to football.observatory@cies.ch

The publication presents a comparative analysis of clubs and players in the big-5 European leagues at demographic, economic and pitch performance levels. An excerpt of the study is to be found on the Football Observatory’s website.

The Annual Review is on sale as a pdf on the CIES online shop. Journalists, students and academics may obtain a discount by writing to football.observatory@cies.ch. Please write to the same address for more information.

The Annual Review notably reveals that Lionel Messi would largely break the 94-million euro transfer fee record. Estimated on the basis of an exclusive econometric model, his value is between 217 and 252 million euro. With an estimated value between 102 and 118 million, Cristiano Ronaldo would probably also break his own record.

At club level, the analysis shows that Barcelona holds the greatest assets from a player economic value perspective: 658 million euro. This figure is three times higher than that spent on signing the players used during the 2012/13 season. This reflects the extraordinary ability of the Catalan side to train, launch and add value to home-grown players.

Lionel Messi is not only the most expensive big-5 league player, but also the most decisive one for the 2012/13 season. The ranking is based on the performances for five key indicators: shooting, chance creation, take on, distribution and recovery. The Argentinean outranks Champions League winner Franck Ribéry and Cristiano Ronaldo.

The most decisive young player was Mario Götze. The new Bayern Munich signing is followed by two very promising Belgian footballers belonging to Chelsea: Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. They definitively both deserve to have a chance to play for the London club.

The performance analysis at club level shows that Bayern Munich’s fantastic season was the result of the unmatched balance between attack, distribution and defence. The Champions League winner tops the German Bundesliga rankings for the three key team performance indicators covered by our analysis: defensive solidity, grip on the game and attacking incisiveness. No other champion was able to do so.

The 2013 Annual Review also investigates the evolution in competitive balance within leagues since 2003/04. With the exception of Italy, point gaps between teams are on the increase. This trend is particularly marked in Spain and Germany. Over the last decade, the three most successful clubs achieved more than 60% of podium ranks in all the leagues, up to 80% in Spain and England (24 out of 30).

In 2012/13, money spent in transfer fees to sign first team players was highly correlated to club results in all the leagues. All the champions were among the three biggest spenders in their respective league. This confirms the strong influence of money on success.

Without new regulatory mechanisms to improve income distribution, competitive balance will be further jeopardised by the transformation of top level clubs into global brands, their regular participation in the increasingly lucrative Champions League and investments made by wealthy owners.

The Annual Review is on sale as a pdf on the CIES online shop. Journalists, students and academics may obtain a discount by writing to football.observatory@cies.ch. Please write to the same address for more information.

Furthermore, two teams that we categorised as main outsiders for a podium finish also achieved this goal: Chelsea and Lyon. The remaining team which finished in the top three, Bayer Leverkusen, was forecast to finish 5th according to our model. Of the clubs that we expected to be classified on the podium, the worst result was obtained by Lille (6th), while Arsenal and Schalke 04 just missed this objective (4th).

Generally speaking, our objective was to have an average gap between ranking estimated and obtained of “lower than 4 in all the leagues”. This target was achieved with the following average ranking gaps: Italy 2.4, England 2.9, Germany 2.9, France 3.1 and Spain x.x.

The highest positive gaps per league between ranking achieved and estimated were measured for the following clubs: Nice (+11), Freiburg (+11), Rayo Vallecano and Betis Sevilla (+10), Norwich (+8) and Cagliari (+7). Conversely, the highest negative gaps were recorded for Mallorca (-10), Sunderland (-9), Brest (-8), Stuttgart (-8) and Sampdoria (-6).

With regard to the eventual league champions, it was impossible to do worse than the previous season (0 out of 5). This year we are pleased to have forecast four title winners (all except Manchester United). This is one more than in the previous record season (2010/11). However, the proportion for the three last seasons is still inferior to 50% (7 out of 15).

We are also pleased to announce that the eighth edition of the Annual Review will be published on the 13th of June. It will for the first time include an estimate of the economic value of big-5 league players according to a cutting-edge econometric model exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory academic team.