The CIES Football Observatory opens its 2018/19 season with the publication of the 37th Monthly Report. The study analyses from a financial standpoint transfer operations carried out by big-5 league clubs since 2010. The total expenditure for 2018 was €5.82 billion (-2.4% compared to 2017), of which €4.71 billion invested during the freshly concluded summer transfer window (-9.9%).

In 2018, the transfer spending of Premier League clubs accounted for 36.5% of the total big-5 league teams expenditure. Since 2010, English top division clubs had a net transfer spend of -€5.71 billion (78.3% of the overall big-5 league deficit). Manchester City has invested the most in transfer indemnities since 2010 (€1.47 billion). It also has the most negative balance sheet for transfer operations (-€1.03 billion).

Despite the slight drop in spending observed in 2018 compared to the 2017 record year, the economic development of the top of the professional football pyramid suggests that a renewed increase of sums invested in transfer fees will happen in the near future. While talent concentration makes possible the assembly of top performing teams, it also reinforces the imbalance of competitions.

Every month since January 2015, the CIES Football Observatory has been publishing reports to inform football stakeholders and all people passionate about the beautiful game on the latest trends observed at sporting, demographic and economic level. For the first time, the papers written during the 2017/18 season were gathered within a “Football Analytics” e-book.

In addition, during the last year, we spared no effort to develop exclusive contents allowing our website users to broaden the scope of their knowledge on football. Henceforth, the following unique tools are available free of charge:

Player profile comparator (big-5)

Transfer value trends (big-5)

Player performance rankings (big-5)

Club performance rankings (35 European leagues)

Digital Atlas (31 European top divisions)

The publication of the increasingly successful and influential Weekly Posts will start again after the summer break. The next Monthly Report will be published just after the end of the transfer window. It will analyse market trends from an economic standpoint. During the summer, exclusive information will be presented through our Twitter account and Facebook page.

To know more about corporate sponsorship opportunities, please contact us at football.observatory@cies.ch.

The 36th CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses the composition of squads in five major women’s leagues: four European (Germany, Sweden, France and England), as well as the Women’s National Soccer League in the United States. The study highlights the increases in the average age of players. The number of expatriate footballers goes also up both on the pitch and in squads.

The economic development and professionalisation of the women’s game are leading to several processes already observed at men’s level. A convergence process notably exists in terms of players’ age. While on average still younger than their male counterparts, women playing in the leagues surveyed are getting older. Up until a certain level, this process will probably continue in the years to come.

A second important trend is the growth of the expatriate presence. While also still below the levels observed in the most competitive men’s leagues, the number of expatriate footballers in women’s clubs surveyed is on the increase. In this case too, a further growth is expected for the next years. The diversity of origins represented in the major championships should also go up.

Finally, as for the men’s game, without corrective measures, financial divides between clubs both at national and international level will increase. The economic development will indeed benefit some clubs and leagues much more than others. The high concentration of full internationals in some clubs (Wolfsburg, Lyon, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, etc.) already illustrates this process.

The last Weekly Post before the summer break ranks teams participating in the 2018 FIFA World Cup according to the transfer value of squad members, estimated from the CIES Football Observatory algorithm. At the top three positions of the table are France (€1.41 billion), England (€1.39 billion) and Brazil (€1.27 billion).

The valuations refer to the fair price that the most likely buyer clubs should pay to sign the players. The sporting performance of both the footballers themselves and their clubs of belonging are included in the algorithm. In addition, other variables such as age and contract duration are taken into account, as detailed in the following research note.

The estimated transfer value for all players participating in the World Cup is €12.6 billion. At the bottom of the table are three non-European countries with almost no players employed by clubs in the most competitive leagues: Panama, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The World Cup will probably allow some of them being spotted by teams in the richest football countries. The transfer values of all big-5 league players are available here.

Harry Kane has become the world most expensive player from a transfer value perspective according to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. Following his new outstanding season, the Englishman is now worth €201.2 million. Tottenham’s striker outranks two Paris St-Germain’s players: Neymar (€197.5 m) and Kylian Mbappé (€186.5 m). The top 100 list for big-5 league footballers is available in issue number 230 of the Weekly Post.

In the top ten positions are players from six countries: England (Kane and Alli), Belgium (de Bruyne and Lukaku), Argentina (Messi and Dybala), France (Mbappé and Griezmann), Brazil (Neymar) and Egypt (Salah). With 16 players, France is the most represented country in the top 100. Cristiano Ronaldo (24th, €103.4 m) is the oldest footballer listed, while Gianluigi Donnarumma (73th, €67.5 m) is the youngest one.

The highest estimated values per position were recorded for Ederson Moraes (goalkeepers, €104.6 m), Samuel Umtiti (centre backs, €111.5 m), Kyle Walker (full backs, 89.8 m), Saúl Ñíguez (defensive midfielders, €100.5 m), Kevin de Bruyne (box-to-box midfielders, €167.2 m), Dele Alli (attacking midfielders, €171.0 m), Neymar (wingers, €197.5 m) and Harry Kane (centre forwards, €201.2 m). More information on the CIES Football Observatory algorithm is available here.

The five major European championships ended. Issue number 229 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares the final rank for each team with its position in a virtual table elaborated on the basis of a production index. The latter takes into account three key performance indicators (data from InStat): shots conceded or attempted from the box, as well as the percentage of possession.

Three out of the five champions also were the most productive teams: Bayern Munich (+94% compared to the Bundesliga club average), Paris St-Germain (+84%) and Manchester City (+82%). In Spain, third-ranked Real Madrid (+61%) had a higher production index than Barcelona (+52%). In Italy, runners-up Napoli (+59%) outranked Juventus (+38%).

The most positive gaps per league between the position in real table and that in the pitch production ranking were measured for Burnley (+11), Villarreal (+7), Amiens (+7), Hertha Berlin (+6) and Chievo (+5). The most negative differences were recorded for Southampton (-10), Athletic Club (-11), Caien (-5), Hamburger (-6) and Benevento (-6). The analysis for more European leagues are published on Twitter through the CIES Football Observatory account.

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Issue number 228 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analysed InStat data to unveil teams having scored the most goals within ten seconds from free kicks per domestic league minute played this season. Fresh Swiss champions Young Boys scored a goal from these situations every 277 minutes. This is the best value measured for the 31 European competitions included in the study.

Girona (318 minutes) tops the big-5 league table ahead of Italian champions Juventus (354 minutes) and Schalke 04 (360 minutes). However, the most positive gap between goals scored (8) and conceded (1) from free kicks situations was recorded for Spanish champions Barcelona (+7). Tottenham and Stade Rennais (both +6) rank second. Only Arsenal and Werder Bremen did not concede goals within ten seconds from free kicks.

Heidenheim (322 minutes) heads the table for second division leagues of countries hosting the five major European championships. The German team outranks Oviedo (341 minutes) and Queens Park Rangers (346 minutes). Young Boys is ahead Xanthi and Göztepe for countries between the 6th and 15th position in the UEFA rankings, while Radni?ki Niš tops the table for less performing leagues.

Issue number 227 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks footballers having played at least 1,800 big-5 league minutes over the season (1,440 for Germany) according to their performance level. Lionel Messi heads the table ahead of David Silva and Paulo Dybala. Six Manchester City players are in the top 10 list.

Robert Lewandowski ranks the table for German Bundesliga players (10th overall), while Edinson Cavani heads the French Ligue 1 rankings (21th overall). Per position, the best-ranked footballers are Marc-André ter Stegen for goalkeepers, Nicolás Otamendi for defenders, David Silva for midfielders and Lionel Messi for forwards. The methodology used is available in this research note.

The English Premier League is the most represented competition in the top 100 positions (30 footballers), while Bayern Munich is the most represented club (11 players). In total, 26 teams have at least one squad member in the top 100 list. The youngest footballers are Kylian Mbappé, Houssem Aouar, Malcom Filipe, Tanguy Ndombélé, Davinson Sánchez and Leroy Sané.

The last CIES Football Observatory study analyses the presence of expatriate players in the world. With 1,236 representatives abroad, Brazil is at top the table (+42 compared to 2017). France (821, +45) overtook Argentina (760, -26) as the second biggest exporter. The top 50 list is available in the 35th edition of the Monthly Report.

Brazilians are present in a record number of 78 associations out of the 93 covered by the study. The international path with the most expatriates involved goes from Brazil to Portugal. On the 1st of May 2018, 240 players from Brazil were playing in Portugal at professional adult level. The main destination for the French is England (99 players), while that of the Argentineans is Chile (106).

If we take population into account, the highest rate of expatriates per million of inhabitants was recorded for Iceland (180). This figure is above 100 only for one other association: Montenegro (134). It is also very high for double world champions Uruguay (96) and Croatia (80). In total, expatriates account for 21.2% of squads. This is 1.2% more than on the 1st of May 2017.

The average transfer value of Manchester City’s first team squad members estimated by means of the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm reached a record high of €62.9 million. This is the greatest value measured at big-5 league level ahead of Barcelona (€55.3m) and Tottenham (€51.3m). The figures for all big-5 league teams are available in issue number 226 of the Weekly Post.

English Premier League economic power, outstanding performance, long-term contract duration and youthfulness are the key criteria explaining Manchester City’s first position. Seven of their players have an estimated transfer value of more than €100 million: Kevin de Bruyne, Leroy Sané, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Ederson Moraes, Bernardo Silva and Sergio Agüero.

Among the 31 teams whose players have an average estimated transfer value greater than €10 million are nine clubs from the Premier League, eight from the Serie A, six from the Liga and four from both the Bundesliga and the Ligue 1. The lowest ranked Premier League team, West Bromwich Albion, is 55th out of 98. This also reflects the economic dominance of the English top division.

Issue number 225 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post reveals the most likely World Cup winners according to an exclusive power index. This index combines the average percentage of matches played at domestic league level since July 2017 by the 23 most fielded players per team in the qualifying campaign with the average sporting level of employer clubs. Spain tops the list ahead of Brazil.

During current season, the 23 Spanish footballers most fielded in the qualification stage have on average played 81.1% of domestic league matches. This is the highest figure measured among all participating teams. The average sporting level of the clubs employing Spanish players is also the greatest overall: 1.37. According to these criteria, Spain is well placed to repeat its 2010 success. Three other teams have a power index of more than 80: Brazil, France and Germany.

At the opposite end of the table, the lowest power index was recorded for Panama. Two other nations have a score inferior to 25: Iran and Saudi Arabia. For all these countries, reaching the last 16 stage would be a great achievement. For more information about the features of players employed during the qualifications, please refer to the 30th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.