Between January 2015 and December 2019, Red Star Belgrade won 130 domestic league matches out of the 135 during which they scored the first goal: 96.3%. This is the highest value measured among clubs from 92 top divisions worldwide ahead of Sherif Tiraspol from Moldova (94.1%) and Albirex Niigata Singapore (93.3%). The full analysis is available in the 293rd CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

The highest percentages of wins in case of first goal for current big-5 league teams over the five years studied were recorded for Paris St-Germain (89.9%, 124 wins out of 138), Barcelona (88.5%, 116 out of 131) and Manchester City (87.1%, 115 out of 132). Per league, the lowest value were recorded for Toulouse, Augsburg, Udinese, Eibar and Southampton. The lowest percentage overall was recorded for the Australian side Central Coast Mariners (20 wins out of 53, 38%).

At league level, the values range from four fifth of wins for the team having scored the first goal in the Moldavian top division to only about two thirds in the Chilean one. The average for the 92 competitions analysed is just below 70%. At the level of the big-5, the percentages go from 71.1% in the English Premier League to 67.8% in the German Bundesliga. The lowest values in Europe were recorded for the Belgian and Norwegian top divisions (66.3% in both cases).

Issue number 292 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks countries worldwide according to the number of their representatives having played professional football abroad during the calendar year 2019. Brazil is at the top of the table (1,600 players, of which 74.6% active in top division leagues) ahead of France (1,027, 74.0%) and Argentina (972, 75.5%).

In total, 186 national associations had at least one player expatriated in the 141 leagues from 93 countries included in the sample. However, altogether, Brazil, France and Argentina provided up to almost one quarter of the total foreign workforce in global football (22.5%). Nigeria is the main African exporting nation (399 players abroad), while Japan is the principal Asian one (161).

The CIES Football Observatory Atlas of Migration presents the main destinations for each origin. This exclusive tool notably reveals that Portugal is by far the main destination for Brazilians, ahead of Italy and Japan. The three main destinations for the French expatriates are England, Belgium and Luxembourg, while those of the Argentineans are Chile, Mexico and Spain.

The 291st Weekly Post of the CIES Football Observatory highlights the main clubs from where current big-5 league players departed to reach the five major European leagues. At the top of the stepping-stone club rankings are three regular European Cup participants: AFC Ajax (22 players currently in the big-5 were recruited there), SL Benfica (21) and RB Salzburg (20).

In the top 15 positions also are three Belgian teams (KRC Genk, RSC Anderlecht and Club Brugge KV), two further Portuguese clubs (Sporting Clube de Portugal and FC Porto), an additional Dutch one (PSV Eindhoven), as well Swiss (FC Basel), Croatian (Dinamo Zagreb) and Danish (FC København) sides. The B-teams of Real Madrid (4th) and FC Barcelona (11th) also figure high in the rankings. The first non-European team is Boca Juniors (15th).

The 54th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report broadens the analysis by revealing that recruitment from a non-big-5 league team is the most common way of entering the five major European leagues (48%), followed by advancement from the youth academy or the B-team of a big-5 league club (39%, up to 50% for players who made their debut in the Spanish Liga) and the promotion from a second division of the club of belonging (13%).

The 290th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks clubs from 87 top divisions worldwide according to the number of players fielded in domestic league matches since January 2015. The highest value was recorded for the Colombian side of Deportivo Pasto (176 different players), while the lowest one was measured for Shanghai SIPG in China (44 players).

South American clubs are over-represented among those with the highest squad turnover: 7 in the top 10 positions and 14 in the top 20. Conversely, many top-flight European teams are among those who fielded the least different players in domestic league matches since January 2015, such as Manchester City (52), Real Madrid (54) and Bayern Munich (59).

Generally speaking, the richest leagues are not those where clubs change the most players. The average number of players fielded per club and season varies between 38.7 in the Paraguayan top division and 22.1 in the San Marino one. The highest values in Europe were recorded in Romania (30.5 players per club and season) and Croatia (30.2).

The coronavirus pandemic is heavily impacting the football industry. Issue number 289 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the gaps in the players’ estimated transfer value in the event that no matches will be played and no contract will be extended until the end of June. As such, the total player transfer value at big-5 league level would decrease by 28%: from €32.7 to €23.4 billion.

The extent of the decrease varies according to several factors such as the players’ age, contract duration, career path and recent performance. The greatest loss in relative terms concerns ageing footballers with short-term contracts who played fewer matches during current season than in the previous one. As matter of example, Paul Pogba’s estimated transfer value would almost halve from €65M to €35M.

The greatest potential percentage loss per club was measured for Olympique de Marseille: -38%. Conversely, the lowest one was recorded for another French Ligue 1 team: Stade Brestois (-16%). The values presented have been calculated on the basis of the exclusive CIES Football algorithm. The transfer value ranges for big-5 league footballers before the league shutdown are available here.

Two Borussia Dortmund players head the rankings of big-5 league footballers born in or after 2000 with the highest transfer values according to the CIES Football Observatory algorithm: Jadon Sancho and Erling Håland. The Englishman is valued at almost €200 M and the Norwegian at €101 M. While the value of Sancho probably reached its peak, that of Håland is destined to grow. The top 50 list is available for free in issue number 288 of the Weekly Post.

The Real Madrid’s attacking duo Rodrygo and Vinícius have the third and fourth highest estimated values: €89 M and €74 M respectively. Both Brazilians also have a high potential for progression. With four nationals, England is the most represented origin in the top 10: Jadon Sancho, Callum Hudson-Odoi (5th, €72 M), Mason Greenwood (8th, €50 M) and Phil Foden (9th, also €50 M).

With an estimated value of €53 M, the French midfielder Eduardo Camavinga (Stade Rennais) is the youngest player in the top 10. Another footballer born in 2002, Ansu Fati (FC Barcelona) is worth more than €40 M. The value ranges for all big-5 league footballers is freely available here. The 53rd Monthly Report presents the variables and approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team to assess the transfer value of footballers on a scientific basis.

The 287th edition of the Weekly Post ranks clubs from the five major European leagues according to the value on the transfer market of players under contract. The analysis takes into account the 20 players per club with the highest values as per the algorithm exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team.

With an aggregated value of €1.4 billion, Liverpool heads the table. Jürgen Klopp’s team outranks Manchester City, the two Spanish giants (Barcelona and Real Madrid) and Chelsea. The valuation of the latter team has strongly increased thanks to the outbreak of many young talents following the transfer ban imposed by FIFA to the London club. The German side Paderborn is at the bottom of the table.

The estimate ranges for all of the big-5 league players with a sufficient level of professional experience are freely available here. The 53rd Monthly Report presents the variables included in the statistical model developed by the CIES Football Observatory to assess the transfer values of professional footballers on a scientific basis.

The 286th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks current big-5 league players according to the age at which they have reached 50, 100, 200 and 300 caps in these competitions. The Milan AC goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma leads the 50 and 100-match tables, while the Real Madrid forward Eden Hazard is at the top for the 200 and 300-match rankings.

Gianluigi Donnarumma played his 50th game in the big-5 even before his 18th birthday, and the 100th at 19.2 years of age only! In both cases, he outranks another goalkeeper, the French Alban Lafont (FC Nantes). The Basque Iker Muniain (Athletic Club) is the outfield footballer having reached the earliest the 50 and 100 caps in the big-5: at 18.2 and 19.8 years of age respectively.

Eden Hazard holds the records of precocity for both the 200 and 300 big-5 league matches. The Belgian was only 23 years old when he played his 200th game in the five major European championships. He is the only player currently in the big-5 who reached his 300th cap before 26 years of age. Five additional footballers played 300 games before their 27th birthday: James Milner, Moussa Sissoko, Iker Muniain, Miralem Pjani? and Cesc Fàbregas.

Issue number 285 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights the players who created the most big chances for their teammates in big-5 league matches over three different periods: last year, last three years and last five years. Lionel Messi is clearly at the head of the tables for the last five and three years, while Ángel Di María tops the last-year rankings.

According to the data from OptaPro, over the five past years, Lionel Messi created a big chance every 90 minutes. The frequency of big chances created by the Argentinean went even up during the last year (87 minutes). This clearly indicates that the Barcelona prodigy is far from being on the downhill slope of his career.

At the second and third positions for the different periods analysed are Ángel Di María and Kevin de Bruyne for the last five years, Thomas Müller and Kevin de Bruyne for the past three, as well as Thomas Müller and Lionel Messi for the last one. During last year, besides Lionel Messi, three other players have created at least one big chance every 90 minutes: Thomas Müller (every 72 minutes), Ángel Di María (82 minutes) and Kevin de Bruyne (every 87 minutes). This is the fab four for chance creation!

Issue number 284 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 92 top divisions worldwide according to the average number of cards (yellow and red) per game during the current or the last completed one. The figures range from 2.3 in Japan up to 7.0 in Bolivia. Within Europe, the extreme values were recorded in Norway (3.1) and Ukraine (6.2).

The study reveals great geographical differences in aggressiveness put in the game. Eight out of the ten leagues with the most cards are from Latin America: Bolivia, Uruguay, Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Argentina. At the opposite end, three of the five leagues with the least cards are from Asia: Japan, Vietnam and South Korea.

The values for the five major European leagues vary between 3.7 cards per game in the English Premier League and 5.8 in the Italian Serie A. Per club, the figures vary between 1.0 for Borussia Dortmund and 3.7 for Bologna, while at worldwide level they range between 0.8 for FC Tokyo and 4.0 for Montevideo Wanderers.

The renewal of the fruitful collaboration with OptaPro has allowed the CIES Football Observatory to innovate by developing its first ever technical report on a non-European competition: the Major League Soccer (MLS) of the United States and Canada. The 52nd Monthly Report compares the style of play of the MLS with that of the five major European leagues.

The style of football played in the MLS differs from that of the big-5 in two principal aspects: the pressing on opponents and the aerial game. The average number of duels per match recorded in the MLS is lower than that observed in each of the five major European leagues. This reflects the lesser pressure applied by players on whoever has possession. Consequently, MLS teams have the opportunity to take more shots.

Partly due to the lesser pressure on the player who has possession, the MLS footballers privilege the passing game on the ground. This is reflected in a much lower number of aerial duels: -14% in comparison to the big-5 and -25% in comparison to the English Premier League. The MLS teams also carry out fewer crosses than clubs in any of the five major European leagues.

While the Major League Soccer has already undergone significant development over the past decade, the enthusiasm for soccer in the United States, with the organisation of the FIFA World Cup in focus, will allow the competition to grow further, both economically and sportingly. MLS teams will thus be able to attract more top talents from abroad.

The challenge will also be to develop better footballers on site and retaining them for longer. While some of them will continue to join the best performing European clubs, the eventual improvement of the training system will strengthen the US national team, with very positive fallout for the MLS development and the popularity of soccer across the nation at large. Go to the Report.

Issue number 283 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the financial balance for transfers carried out by clubs worldwide during the last two transfer windows. Real Madrid recorded the most negative balance (- €181 million) ahead of Aston Villa (- €169 m) and Barcelona (- €166 m). At the opposite end of the table are Chelsea (+ €205 m), Benfica (+ €167) and Ajax (+ €137 m).

The seven fee paying transfers concluded by Real Madrid during the summer 2019 and winter 2020 transfer windows had a total estimated cost of €330 m (add-ons included). During the same period, the incomes generated by the Spanish team for the release of seven other players were €149 m. On its side, Chelsea earned €250 by transferring 16 footballers, while it only spent €45 m to reinforce its squad (Mateo Kova?i?).

At the level of the five major European leagues, the net balance for transfer operations range from - €844 million for the English Premier League and + €106 m for the French Ligue 1. Negative balances were also recorded in the Spanish Liga (- € 418 m), the Italian Serie A (- € 407 m) and the German Bundesliga (- € 263 m).

Issue number 282 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the list of players born in the 2000s who played the highest percentage of domestic league minutes during current season. Dejan Kulusevski (Parma, on loan from Juventus) tops the table for the big-5 league players ahead of Sandro Tonali (Brescia), Max Aarons (Norwich) and the 17-year-old French talent Eduardo Camavinga (Stade Rennais).

Conor Gallagher (Swansea, on loan from Chelsea) heads the rankings for the second divisions of big-5 league countries. The Spanish prodigy Pedri (Las Palmas) is fourth. Born in 2002, the attacking midfielder has already signed a long-term contract for FC Barcelona. At 19th position is a player born in 2003: Jude Bellingham (Birmingham City). The English midfielder already scored four goals in the Championship.

The Dutchman Sven Botman is at the top of the rankings for players from the other top divisions taken into account. The centre back loaned by Ajax to Heerenveen outranks the Brazilian midfielder Gustavo Assunção (Famalicão) and three very young talents: the Czech forward Adam Hložek (2002, Sparta Prague), the Australian midfielder Louis D’Arrigo (2001, Adelaide) and the Swiss defender Leonidas Stergiou (2002, St-Gall).

Issue number 281 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares points achieved by teams from 31 European leagues with points expected according to a statistical model taking into account ball possession, as well as the number and distance of both shots taken and conceded as per InStat data. The analysis highlights the great efficiency of clubs such as Benfica (+0.71 points per match), Liverpool (+0.66), Juventus (+0.64), Schalke 04 (+0.57) and Valencia (+0.55).

The pitch production of Benfica should have allowed them to achieve 2.11 points per match compared to 2.82 in reality. The greatest positive gap out of the 496 clubs from the 31 leagues surveyed was recorded for Astra Giurgiu (+0.85). The Romanian side obtained almost two points per match despite having conceded more shots than those taken and having had only about 45% of ball possession. The same holds true for Turkish league leader Sivaspor (+0.73).

The greatest negative gap overall was registered for Heart of Midlothian: 0.62 points achieved compared to 1.39 expected (-0.77). Champions League round of 16 participants Atalanta (-0.71) and Napoli (-0.61) were also particularly inefficient with respect to their pitch production. Manchester City (-0.36) and Chelsea (-0.33) are at the bottom of the Premier League efficiency rankings. More exclusive InStat data is accessible in the CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas.

Issue number 280 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 35 European domestic leagues according to their number of fouls per game as per InStat data. Champions League titleholders Liverpool FC committed the least fouls per match so far this season (8.1). This is partially related to the less strict refereeing style in the English Premier League: 20.4 fouls whistled per game compared to an average of 27.2 in the 35 competitions surveyed.

Eight Premier League teams are in the top 18 positions of the rankings: Liverpool, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Leicester, Chelsea, Norwich, Tottenham and Manchester City. If we relate fouls committed to the average measured at league level, Hamburger SV heads the table (-32% of fouls with respect to rivals), ahead of Slovan Bratislava (-29%) and Shakhtar Donetsk (-27%). Vojvodina made the most fouls per match overall (22.9), while Zlaté Moravce committed the most compared to league rivals (+38%).

Per league, the lowest average number of fouls per game whistled by referees was recorded in the English Premier League (20.4), the Danish Superliga (21.0) and the Dutch Eredivisie (21.6). At the opposite end of the table are the top divisions of six Eastern European countries: Serbia (34.9), Bulgaria (31.6), Czech Republic (31.4), Romania (31.0), Poland (30.9) and Ukraine (30.5). For more exclusive analysis, follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

For the first time, a CIES Football Observatory report turns its eye exclusively to Latin America. It analyses the squads of four leagues: the Brazilian Serie A, the Argentinean Superliga, the Chilean Primera División and the Mexican Liga MX. Il notably reveals the specificity of the Mexican league with respect to the presence of footballers imported from abroad. Expatriates account for the majority of players in line-ups, while they only play about a tenth of minutes in Brazil and Argentina. Access the study.

The report also brings to light the greater emphasis on the promotion of talents from youth academies by Argentinian teams. Boca Juniors is the most important training club, followed by three other clubs from Argentina: Vélez Sarsfield, River Plate and Newell’s Old Boys. The most important training clubs for the other three countries studied are São Paulo FC in Brazil, Atlas Guadalajara in Mexico and Universidad de Chile in Chili.

The study also shows the central role of Argentina as a provider of players for the leagues analysed. Indeed, Argentinians constitute the most numerous contingents of expatriates in Mexico, as well as in Chili and Brazil. On the contrary, only eight Brazilians are expatriated in the leagues studied (all in Mexico). The other countries with many expatriates in the championships taken into account are Colombia, Uruguay and Paraguay.

Finally, the report illustrates the specificity of the Brazilian Serie A regarding the plethora of players used by teams. This situation reflects the status of Brazil as a global source of labour par excellence. From this point of view, just playing a few matches can open the doors towards a transfer abroad, even though not in the most prestigious football countries.

The CIES Football Observatory opens a new exciting decade of football analytics with the exclusive publication of its traditional list of the big-5 league players with the greatest estimated transfer values. At the top three positions of the table are Kylian Mbappé (France and Paris St-Germain), Raheem Sterling (England and Manchester City), as well Mohammed Salah (Egypt and Liverpool). Issue number 279 of the Weekly Post presents the 166 footballers in the big-5 valued at more than €50 million.

Per position, the most expensive players from a transfer value perspective are Alisson Becker for goalkeepers (€77 M), Virgil van Dijk for centre backs (€93 M), Trent Alexander-Arnold for full backs (€110 M), James Maddison for midfielders (€112 M) and Kylian Mbappé for forwards (€265 M). Eleven out of the 20 big-5 league footballers with an estimated value of at least €100 million play for English Premier League clubs.

There are at least two players worth more than €100 M are in each of the remaining big-5 leagues: three in the Liga (Messi, Griezmann and João Felix), two in the Ligue 1 (Mbappé and Neymar), two in the Serie A (Martínez and Lukaku), as well as two in the Bundesliga (Sancho and Werner). More information about the exclusive approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team to estimate transfer values on a scientific basis is available in this methodological note.

The CIES Football Observatory has developed a property algorithm to assess the performance of footballers from the exclusive data produced by the leading sports company OptaPro. Issue number 278 of the Weekly Post presents the MVP per big-5 league club, as well as the top values for each of the six areas of the game analysed. Only players fielded for at least nine (MVPs) and respectively six (per domain) full domestic league matches are included.

The MVPs are footballers whose performance had the biggest influence in their teams’ results. We notably find Marco Verratti at Paris St-Germain, Lionel Messi at Barcelona, Toni Kroos at Real Madrid, Kevin de Bruyne at Manchester City, Virgil van Dijk at Liverpool, Ciro Immobile at Lazio, Jamie Vardy at Leicester City, Dimitri Payet at Olympique Marseille, Miralem Pjani? at Juventus, Sven Bender at Bayer Leverkusen and Milan Škriniar at Inter.

At Real Madrid, five different footballers head the tables per area of the game: Raphaël Varane for rigour (duels), Carlos Casemiro for recovery (interceptions), Toni Kroos for distribution (passes), Eden Hazard for take on (dribbles) and Karim Benzema for both chance creation (assists) and shooting (attempts). At Barcelona, three players only top the rankings: Lionel Messi for all of the attacking indicators, Clément Lenglet for rigour and Sergio Busquets for both recovery and distribution.