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Transfer spending: Premier League top, but down

The 469th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares the transfer fees invested by clubs worldwide (including add-ons) between the summers 2023 and 2024. In both cases, the period taken into account runs from 1 June to the Monday of the last week of the transfer window (28 August in 2023 and 26 August in 2024).

Overall, the expenditure fell by 13%, from €8.18 billion to €7.08 billion. English Premier League clubs were once again the biggest spenders (€2.19 billion), although their investments were also down (-€270 million, -11%). The Saudi Pro League saw the biggest drop in both absolute (-€657 million) and relative terms (-75%).

In the other leagues of the European big-5, a decline was recorded so far in the German Bundesliga (-€160 million, -20%), while investment rose in Italy’s Serie A (+€130 million, +17%), with stable figures for both Spanish Liga and France’s Ligue 1. The biggest relative increase among the 20 most active leagues was in the Brasileirão (+87 million, +136%), mainly due to the arrival of foreign capital in club ownerships.

>>> Full data

CIES Sports Intelligence groundbreaking report

Following the three CIES Football Observatory Summer Series reports on global football match calendar and player workload, our colleagues of the CIES Sports Intelligence have elaborated a very comprehensive (>50 pages) and highly informing study that we are happy to help disseminating.

CIES Sports Intelligence media release

‘Through a series of cases studies and analyses, the CIES Sports Intelligence report on the elite men’s football match calendar and player workload provides an empirical outlook on both current and historical trends related to these topics. Notwithstanding the importance of the international match calendar’s structure, the study underlines the prominent role of domestic bodies (i.e. leagues or national associations) as competition organisers, highlighting some of the differences that exist at individual country level.

Moreover, the report illustrates that, somewhat contrary to the current narrative within the football ecosystem, there is no consistent evidence of an increase in elite player workload since the turn of the century. In fact, the contrary appears to exist according to the research conducted by CIES Sports Intelligence. Highlights from the report include:

•⁠ Players – overall workload: With a total of 6,258 minutes (the equivalent of nearly 70 full matches) played between club and national team in 2012/2013, David Luiz holds the single season record across all players that competed in the top eight European divisions over the past 25 years. The two next highest values date back even further - to Frank Lampard and Roberto Carlos campaigns in 2006/2007 and 1999/2000 respectively. Bruno Fernandes (6th) is the only player in the top ten related to a season that does not precede 2013 at least. When extending the analysis to the top 50 players by total number of minutes per season, the overall trend has been on a decreasing trajectory for the past three seasons when compared to any three-year cycle since 1999/2000.

•⁠ Competition – calendar occupation: Domestic competitions have accounted for 94,2% of the distribution of football matches between the seasons 2012/13 and 2023/24.

•⁠ ⁠Competitions and clubs – Back-to-back matches: Taking a sample size from the top-five ranked European domestic leagues, during the 2023/2024 season, England was home to the highest number of domestic back-to-back matches (event of a club playing two domestic games within 72 hours from one another) involving top division clubs (with 87 instances). English Premier League clubs topped the ranking also in terms of the shortest average time (67.3 hours) between back-to-back matches.

•⁠ Clubs – International tours: After considering the total calendar days with no competitive football being played, Manchester United (52 friendlies), Manchester City (45 friendlies) and Real Madrid (45 friendlies) are the clubs that played the highest number of friendly matches outside of Europe between July 2010 and May 2024. League-wide, the English Premier League set a new record in 2023/2024 with an aggregate total of 42 ‘non-European’ friendlies played (and a total 308,212 kilometers travelled in the process – the third highest total since 2001/2002).

•⁠ Players – substitute data: With data taken from four European leagues (England, Germany, Italy and Spain), substitutes have been on the pitch for an aggregate average of 86,775 additional minutes per season since the permanent introduction of the five changes. This value represents a 51.1% increase compared to the total recorded during the last season with only three substitutions allowed.’

>>> Full report

Report on the most in-demand players

The third report of the CIES Football Observatory Summer Series on Match Calendar and Player Workload focuses on the most in-demand footballers. It notably reveals that, over the last twelve years, more than three quarters of minutes played by most fielded footballers per season worldwide (>4,500 minutes) were played in national club competitions (76.3%).

This finding confirms for the most in-demand footballers the conclusion already drawn in the first report at the level of all players: national leagues, more than any other organiser, have a dominant role in structuring the football match calendar. This situation has changed little over time (see also the second report on clubs) and the changes made to the format of certain competitions will have only a minor impact.

Projections for 2024-2028 show indeed that, given recent trends in squad size, turnover and the use of five substitutions, the proportion of active footballers in the 40 leagues studied who will play more than 4,500 official game minutes per season (50 full matches) will be slightly lower than that observed between 2020 and 2024: 1.02% compared with 1.07%.

>>> Third report on most in-demand players

>>> Second report on clubs

>>> First report on organisers

Clubs are not playing more matches per season

The second report of the CIES Football Observatory Summer Series on Match Calendar and Player Workload analyses the trends in the number of official games played by clubs in 40 of the top leagues worldwide. The study notably reveals that the teams are not playing more matches per season, countering the popular belief of an ever more crowded match calendar.

Between 2012 and 2024, the average number of fixtures per club and season is stable at just over 40. Only about 5% of clubs play 60 or more games per season (not including friendlies). Looking further back to the 2000/01 season, the same finding holds true for the big-5 leagues’ representatives in the UEFA Champions League, with even a decrease in the overall number of official matches played during the last three seasons.

No significant change was observed in the proportion of clubs playing 60 or more matches neither. The values measured at global level for the last two seasons (3.7% for 2022/23 and 4.0% for 2023/24) are here too lower than the average recorded over the entire period. The study also project figures for the next four year-cycle, with national leagues continuing to play a dominant role in the organisation of matches.

>>> Full study

Match Calendar and Player Workload: first report

This first report of the CIES Football Observatory Summer Series on Match Calendar and Player Workload in men’s football analyses trends in the number of games and minutes per season played over the last twelve years by footballers from 40 of the top leagues worldwide, as well as their breakdown according to organisers and projections for the 2024-28 period.

National leagues have by far the greatest weight on the organisation of men’s world football. Between 2012 and 2024, they accounted for 82.2% of all matches played by footballers from the 40 leagues surveyed. The second largest organiser, national associations, accounted for 10.2% of matches, while confederations come third with 6.7%, ahead of FIFA with 0.9%.

The main change over the last twelve seasons is the relative strengthening of the confederations, mainly to the detriment of associations. However, no weakening of the national leagues’ clear-cut leadership in the men’s football match calendar was observed. The latter accounted for more than 80% of the minutes played by footballers in the 40 leagues studied during all the seasons surveyed.

According to the projections elaborated by taking new competition formats into account, footballers from the leagues investigated will on average play the same number of minutes and 1.4% more matches in all competitions combined (not including club friendlies) over the next four years compared to the last four. The non-increase in expected minutes is driven by factors such as the five substitutions rule and trends in squad sizes.

>>> Access the full report for free

Men’s Football Calendar

The CIES Football Observatory is breaking new ground with four summer reports on the highly topical issue of the football calendar congestion and players workload. The studies will be published on a weekly basis from next week, and will focus on three key areas and actors within the global football calendar ecosystem.

  • Week 1 (ending 12 July) – Competitions
  • Week 2 (ending 19 July) – Clubs
  • Week 3 (ending 26 July) – Players
  • Week 4 (ending 2 August) – Final report and further insights

The reports will individually and together help to gain a better understanding of the trends observed over the last twelve years in terms of the number and frequency of matches played worldwide, both in absolute terms and according to the organisers (leagues, associations, confederations, FIFA, etc.), and also in terms of matches and minutes players appear throughout their seasons. They will also provide an analysis of the impact of planned changes to the format of certain competitions (continental club competitions, FIFA Club World Cup, etc.), amongst other datapoints and insights.

Other new features are already available on the CIES Football Observatory website, including improved versions of the Transfer Value Tool and the Demographic Atlas, not to mention the other tools exclusively developed, such as the Migration Atlas and the Performance Stats Tool.

Euro 2024: squad features and favourites

The 468th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the teams qualified for the Euro 2024 from multiple perspectives. The analysis of squad competitiveness, calculated through an index weighting the minutes played over the last year by footballers selected by the sporting level of their matches, highlights Germany and Spain as the favourites.

France and England are the other two most likely semi-finalists, with Portugal close behind. Regarding the aggregated transfer value of squad members, estimated using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model, England (€1.69 billion) is ahead of France (€1.41 billion) and Portugal (€1.22 billion). On an individual level, Jude Bellingham outranks the fresh Real Madrid signing Kylian Mbappé and Phil Foden.

The Post also presents data on the demographics of squads. In terms of age, the values range from 28.8 years for Scotland to 25.8 years for the Czech Republic. Regarding height, the extremes are 186.5 cm for Serbia and 181.6 cm for Spain. In terms of the proportion of footballers playing for clubs outside the country represented, the percentages range from 100% for Denmark and Albania to 8% for England.

Clubs with the most social media followers

The 467th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 clubs in the world with the most followers on four social media: Facebook, X, Instagram and TikTok. Recent UEFA Champions League winners Real Madrid lead the way with 411 million followers, ahead of Barcelona (361 million) and Manchester United (216 million).

Fifteenth, Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr is the most followed non-European team (54 million). The Saudis are ahead of Brazil’s Flamengo (also 54 million) and Egypt’s Al-Ahly (51 million). Twenty-five countries are represented in the top 100, with a maximum of 18 clubs for Spain, followed by England (17), Brazil (12) and Mexico (6).

The biggest increases over the past year among the teams in the top 100 were recorded for Real Madrid (+48 million followers), Inter Miami (+31 million), Manchester City (+27 million) and Al-Nassr (+22 million). In relative terms, the biggest growth was observed for Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami (+1,348%).

>>> Full data

Transfer values: top 100 worldwide

England’s Jude Bellingham is currently the player in the world with the highest value on the transfer market. According to the CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model*, after a very successful first season at Real Madrid, with just a few days to go before the Champions League final, his fair price has now reached €280m**. Access the top 100 here.

Manchester City’s striker Erling Haaland is the second highest-valued player (€255m). The outstanding Norwegian goal scorer is ahead of Real Madrid’s Brazilian duo Vinícius Júnior (€241m) and Rodrygo Goes (€221m), as well as teammate Phil Foden (€204m). Also in the top ten are two Arsenal players (Bukayo Saka and Martin Ödegaard), a third Citizen (Julián Álvarez), Barcelona’s prodigy Lamine Yamal, and Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz.

In the other positions, Borussia Dortmund’s and Switzerland’s Gregor Kobel tops the table for goalkeepers, Arsenal’s Frenchman William Saliba for centre backs, Manchester City’s Croatian Joško Gvardiol for full backs and Real Madrid’s Uruguayan Federico Valverde for defensive midfielders. Endrick Felipe from Palmeiras (on loan from Real Madrid) has the top estimated transfer value among non-European based players (€92m).

* Built on around 5,500 paid transfers, the CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model explains more than 85% of the differences in the fees invested by clubs on the basis of criteria such as age, length of contract, minutes, the proportion of the latter as a starter, the sporting level of matches played, results, the economic strength of the player’s club and league, that of potential buyers, the level of inflation, etc.

** Estimates refer to 100% of transfer fees, including add-ons, with no consideration of eventual buy-out clauses.

Worldwide demographic analysis of women’s football

Women’s football steadily grows and the process of professionalisation is continuing. Although still comparatively less available than for men, data on the demographic profile of female players is now more accessible for women too. The 96th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the composition of 223 teams from 19 leagues around the world: 14 European and 5 non-European.

On average, the clubs studied played with footballers aged 25.2. Northern European teams are the most focused on using young female footballers, while two non-European leagues are the oldest: Brasileiro Feminino and the NWLS in the USA. The figures for today’s UEFA Champions League finalists are 27.2 years for Olympique Lyonnais and 25.9 years for Barcelona.

In terms of the main origins of expatriates, with 159 women footballers playing abroad in the leagues studied, the United States confirms its leadership in this field. Canadians and Swedes are also migrating in large numbers (60 expatriates in both cases). The wide range of origins involved (97 nationalities) bears witness to the geographical expansion of women’s football.

Clubs in financially stronger leagues tend to rely on more experienced players, as well as on more footballers imported from abroad. This is particularly the case for the English Women’s Super League, where the average age of players in the teams is 28.8 years, and where expatriates played 61.3% of the minutes. Olympique Lyonnais are at 51.1% and Barcelona at 27.3%. May the best team win!

>>> Full report

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Sustainable squad management: Arsenal at the top

Good squad planning is a key factor in the success of clubs. The 465th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks almost 800 clubs from 59 leagues around the world according to a continuity index that considers the stability of the squad, its age structure and the contract policy*. This allows us revealing the teams that are both the most stable and the best prepared to maintain a good level of stability in the seasons to come.

Arsenal tops the table ahead of another English team qualified for next season’s Champions League, Aston Villa, with Premier League winners Manchester City fourth. Germany’s Borussia Mönchengladbach are third, suggesting an improvement in performance after a disappointing 2023/24 season, provided the club does not decide to dramatically change its policy. City Football Group’s members New York City are fifth.

In the top ten positions of the rankings also are other clubs with an outstanding squad management policy such as English Premier League’s Brentford, the Belgians of Union St-Gilloise, German champions Bayer Leverkusen, the Ukrainians of Rukh Lviv and Spanish Liga’s Real Sociedad. At the opposite end of the table, we mainly find under-performing teams from leagues with a relatively low level of competitiveness.

Stability is measured by the number of players fielded in the league over the last three seasons, age structure by the percentage of minutes in the current season by footballers aged 31 or over (excluding goalkeepers) and contract policy by the proportion of minutes by footballers whose contracts expire no later than the end of 2025. The continuity index is the average of the three variables indexed on a base of 100, with the maximum for the lowest turnover and the lowest dependence on ageing or short-contract players.

>>> All data

Most impactful players of the season

The 464th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the outfield footballers whose performances have had the greatest impact during the 2023/24 season in 54 leagues around the world. The impact score was calculated by taking into account players’ performances in six areas of the game, domestic league minutes and results. The highest value for any position was recorded for Manchester City’s Spaniard midfielder Rodri.

Another midfielder, Switzerland’s Granit Xhaka of German champions Bayer Leverkusen, comes second. For the other positions, the highest impact scores were measured for Portuguese Rúben Dias among centre backs, his teammate Kyle Walker among full backs, Germany’s Florian Wirtz among attacking midfielders, England’s Bukayo Saka among wingers, as well as Argentina’s Lautaro Martínez among centre forwards.

Outside the big-5, the highest impact values per position were measured for Olivier Boscagli of Dutch champions PSV Eindhoven for centre backs, Saud Abdulhamid of the Saudi side Al-Hilal for full backs, his teammate Sergej Milinković-Savić for defensive or central midfielders, Rafa Silva of Benfica for attacking midfielders, Johan Bakayoko of PSV for wingers, as well as Viktor Gyökeres of Sporting CP for strikers.

>>> Top 100 overall & top 20 per league

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