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New seasons: the favourite teams

Issue 427 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks the teams in 69 leagues around the world according to the average experience level of players in the squad. Experience is calculated by weighting minutes played in official club or national team matches over the last year by the sporting level of the games, with a maximum possible value of 100.

For the European big-5, Manchester City (85.6 and 63.2), Real Madrid (82.5 / 60.6), Bayern Munich (73.4 / 52.3) and Paris St-Germain (67.9 / 48.5) have the highest values for both ‘starters’ (i.e. the eleven most experienced players) and ‘substitutes’ (up to the next eleven). In Italy, Inter and Napoli are tied for the first (72.7), while Fiorentina leads the way for the second (47.6). The Tuscans could therefore be the surprise package of the season.

In Argentina, River Plate are first for the ‘starters’ and Boca Juniors for the ‘substitutes’. In Brazil, surprise leaders Botafogo are behind Palmeiras, Flamengo and Fluminense. In MLS, Messi’s Inter Miami have the most experienced starters, while Philadelphia Union have the best bench. In Turkey, Fenerbahçe are expected to take the title from Galatasaray, while Benfica should retain their crown in Portugal, as should Al-Ittihad in Saudi Arabia.

>>> See the virtual ’experience’ tables in 69 leagues

Women’s football analysis: a continuous growth

With a new final phase of the FIFA World Cup to come, women’s football continues its development worldwide. The June’s CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses the composition of squads of the eight clubs having reached the quarter-finals of the 2022/23 UEFA Women’s Champions League.

Footballers under 23 years of age only accounted for 16.8% of minutes played by the UEFA Champions League quarter-finalists. This finding reflects the difficulty for young talents in establishing themselves in the top European clubs. The highest level was recorded for the unfortunate finalists, Wolfsburg (26.3%), which indicates a bright future for the German club.

Almost half of the minutes in the quarter-finalists were played by expatriate footballers. Particularly high levels were recorded for the two English teams present at this stage: Arsenal (83.2%) and Chelsea (74.5%). However, the two finalists, Wolfsburg (30.9%) and Barcelona (35.5%), are at the opposite, which shows that it is still possible to achieve the highest results with a majority of national players.

With 77 expatriates, the double World Cup title holders of the United States are the top exporting country for players active abroad in the ten principal women’s leagues, ahead of Sweden (48 expatriates), Denmark (45) and Canada (44).

>>> Access the Report for free

Social media: Real ahead of Barcelona

The last CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post before the summer break presents the top 100 clubs in the world with the most followers on four social networks: Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok.

With 362 million followers, Real Madrid is ahead its big rival Barcelona (342 million). Manchester United is the only other club with more than 200 million followers, while Paris St-Germain ranks fourth (187 million).

Outside the five major European leagues, the top three consists of Brazil’s Flamengo (50 million), Egypt’s Al-Ahly (45 million) and Turkey’s Galatasaray (40 million).

>>> Top 100 of the most popular clubs in the social media

Transfer values: Haaland takes the lead

Issue number 425 of the Weekly Post presents the top 100 estimated transfer values using the statistical model exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory. Manchester City and Premier League top scorer Erling Haaland heads the list with a value of almost €250 million (eventual buy-out clause not considered). Two other footballers under 23 years of age, Vinícius Júnior and Bukayo Saka, who just extended his Arsenal’s contract, complete the podium.

Rumoured close to Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund’s teenager Jude Bellingham is fourth with an estimated value of €190 million (eventual add-ons included as for all players listed). The Englishman outranks Rodrygo Goes and the FC Barcelona’s duo Pedri González and Pablo Gavi (assuming that the registration of his contract until 2026 will be effective). Jamal Musiala, Phil Foden and Kylian Mbappé (contract with PSG until 2024 only) complete the top 10 list.

The highest estimated values for players from outside the big-5 were recorded for two Portuguese top talents: António Silva (€89 million) and Gonçalo Ramos (€82 million). The SL Benfica’s duo are ahead PSV Eindhoven’s Xavi Simons, FC Porto’s Diogo Costa, Sporting CP’s Gonçalo Inacio and three AFC Ajax players. More information on the statistical model used is available in this scientific paper. Evaluations for more than 30,000 players in 75 leagues around the world are available via a paying platform.

>>> Top 100 list

SkillCorner data reveals teams’ attacking styles

Issue number 424 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post defines the attacking styles of teams from 23 leagues worldwide on the basis of the data on players’ high intensity runs exclusively produced by SkillCorner (>20km/h for at least 0.7 seconds). For each league, clubs are ranked from those whose players perform more in-possession high intensity runs than expected with respect to the minutes of possession to those who perform less.

A positive gap is characteristic of teams tending to go rapidly forward, while a negative gap is typical of teams building-up in a more horizontal way. Most of the dominant teams are in the second category, notably Shakhtar Donetsk (-12.1%), Paris St-Germain (-10.9%) and Manchester City (-8.2%), but RC Lens (+10.1%), Newcastle United (+8.5%) and Borussia Dortmund (+6.0%) show that it is possible to obtain top level results with a more vertical attacking style.

SkillCorner’s pioneering tracking technologies use broadcast and tactical video to deliver physical and contextual data for more than 60 football leagues and competitions across the world. Its standardised physical data allows users to benchmark and track the physical attributes of players, teams and leagues by supporting decision making on scouting, recruitment, player development and team strategy. The data includes a large set of metrics, including the "Count of High Intensity runs" used here.

Less than one in two coaches finished the season

Issue number 423 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 60 top division leagues around the world according to the percentage of coaches in place at the start of the 2022/23 season who are no more in charge today. Of the 850 teams analysed, 484 changed coaches during the season, corresponding to a percentage of 56.9%.

The greatest percentages were measured in three leagues from the former Yugoslavia (Bosnia, North Macedonia and Serbia), followed by one from Central America (Costa Rica) and two from Africa (Algeria and Tunisia). At the other end of the scale are India (just one coach replaced in 11), Malta (3 in 14) and Australia (3 in 12). For the big-5, the values range from 55% in the Premier League (11 out of 20) to “only” 35% in Serie A (7 out of 20).

Clubs that changed coach at least once made the first replacement on average after 45.4% of matches, with a negative record of only 24.6% of games led by the coach who started the season in Romania, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Greece. In the big-5, the values stretch from 56.6% in the English Premier League to 35.6% in the Italian Serie A, where clubs changed relatively few coaches but rather quickly.

Expatriates on the rise, records for the top three

The 422nd edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the ranking of the 100 associations with the highest number of expatriate players in 135 leagues worldwide. With a record number of 1,289 expatriates, Brazil tops the list ahead of France (1,033) and Argentina (905). Nigeria, Japan and the United States heads the rankings for the other main confederations.

The Post also presents the number of expatriates by age group, with the French in first place for those aged 23 or under, Brazilians for those aged 23 to 26 and 27 to 30, and Argentinians for those aged over 30. More detailed analyses including changes measured since 2017, with record increases for France and Colombia, are available in the 85th Monthly Report.

Expatriates are defined as footballers playing outside the association where they grew up, which they left following recruitment by a foreign club. This definition makes it possible to isolate sports migration from ordinary one, thus highlighting the flows directly linked to the practice of football. The Migration Atlas presents the main destinations for football migrants of all origins.

Top transfer values per club and new tool

The 421st Weekly Post presents the player with the highest transfer value according to the CIES Football Observatory statistical model for 1,229 clubs in 74 leagues around the world. For each player, we also present the proportion that its value represents with respect to the total value of all footballers under contract with his owner club.

The highest values for the four Champions League semi-finalists were recorded for Erling Haaland at Manchester City (>€200m), Vinícius Júnior at Real Madrid (>€200m), Lautaro Martínez at Inter (>€80m) and Rafael Leão at Milan (>€60m). Among other players heading the table for their respective clubs notably are Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Pedri González (Barcelona), Jamal Musiala (Bayern), Pedro Guilherme (Flamengo) and Alan Varela (Boca Juniors).

We are also proud to launch a new tool providing access to the estimated value of more than 30,000 professional players worldwide under a scenario with a contractual duration of at least three years. Vinícius Júnior (>€250m), Kylian Mbappé (also >€250m) and Erling Haaland (>€200m) are in the top three positions of this virtual ranking. Gianluigi Donnarumma tops the table for goalkeepers, Éder Militão for centre backs, Reece James for full backs and Jude Bellingham for midfielders.

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The precise value calculated according to the actual contract duration is available through a paid platform alongside many more exclusive statistics. Any interested institution is kindly invited to contact us.

Best young dribblers: Vinícius Júnior tops the list

The 420th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post uses Wyscout data on dribbling in domestic league matches over the last 365 days to compile a world ranking of the best dribblers according to an index combining the frequency and percentage of successful dribbles, as well as the sporting level of teammates and opponents. Only footballers who have not yet turned 23 and have played at least 1’500 domestic league minutes are included.

Real Madrid’s Brazilian winger Vinícius Júnior tops the list with a successful dribble every 15 minutes and 32 seconds, and a success rate of 50.3% in highly competitive matches. His compatriot Ângelo Gabriel of Santos FC ranks second with even more impressive statistics, albeit in lower-level games: one successful dribble every 13 minutes and 56 seconds with a 64.2% success rate. Bayern Munich’s Jamal Musiala rounds up the podium ahead of AFC Ajax’s Mohammed Kudus.

Players from 35 different leagues are in the top 100, with Spain’s La Liga in first place (11 representatives), one more than the English Premier League and Argentina’s Liga Profesional. Born on 23 December 2004, Brighton & Hove Albion’s Facundo Buonanotte is the youngest player in the top 100, followed by Ângelo Gabriel (born just two days earlier), RB Salzburg’s Israeli Oscar Gloukh and Vélez Sarsfield’s Julián Fernández.

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World ranking of the 200 most promising youngsters

Issue 419 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post lists the 200 U20 players in 75 leagues around the world (20 in each of the ten positions considered) who have accumulated the most official game experience during last year. The highest score overall was recorded for Barcelona’s prodigy Gavi, whose relative experience capital is 4.37 times higher than the average measured for players of the same age and position.

The top players by position are Plamen Andreev (Levski Sofia, goalkeeper), António Silva (Benfica, centre back), Alejandro Balde (Barcelona, left back), Rico Lewis (Manchester City, right back), Arthur Vermeeren (Royal Antwerp, defensive midfielder), Pablo Gavi (Barcelona, central midfielder), Bilal El Khannouss (KRC Genk, attacking midfielder), Matheus Martins (Watford, left winger), Ângelo Gabriel (Santos, right winger) and Marcos Leonardo (Santos, centre-forward)

The ranking was established according to the experience capital method, taking into account the minutes played in official games during the last 365 days, the sporting level of the matches and the results. Furthermore, the experience capital was related to the average measured for players of the same age and position, which allows us to present a relative score as mentioned above.

Penalty frequency worldwide: Egypt at the top

The 418th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 75 leagues around the world according to the frequency of penalties awarded by referees since 1 January 2020. The Egyptian Premier League heads the rankings with a penalty whistled every 172 minutes (not including injury time) compared to a global average of 271 minutes.

At the other end of the scale are the Japanese J1 League (every 520 minutes) and J2 League (every 613 minutes), as well as the English Championship, League One and League Two. In terms of conversion rates, the world average is 77.1%. The maximum was recorded in the French Ligue 1 and the Qatar Stars League (82.2%), while the minimum was observed in the South African PSL (71.4%).

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Top clubs for U20 players’ employment

Issue number 417 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the percentage of minutes played by footballers who had not yet turned 20 in domestic league matches played over the last five years by 1,168 clubs in 76 leagues worldwide. Denmark’s Nordsjælland crushes the competition with a record percentage of 37%. Slovakia’s MŠK Žilina and Septemvri Sofia of Bulgaria complete the podium.

The top three outside of Europe is made up of two Venezuelan clubs (Mineros de Guayana and Deportivo La Guaira) and Uruguay’s Defensor SCBorussia Dortmund leads the way among the teams currently in the big-5, ahead of Stade Rennais and FC Barcelona. In terms of the number of U20 players lined up in domestic league matches since 1 April 2018, the Romanian side FCV Farul tops the table with 45 footballers.

>>> Full data set

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