The 334th edition of the Weekly Post presents the squad transfer value for the 98 teams in the five major European leagues. The estimated value for players loaned to other big-5 league teams was computed for the clubs of belonging, while that of players on loan outside of the top five European championships is not considered. The estimates were calculated through the CIES Football Observatory transfer value algorithm.

Current Premier League leaders and Champions League semifinalists Manchester City are at the top of the table with a total squad value of €1.30 billion. Pep Guardiola’s team outranks two other English clubs: Manchester United (€1.16 billion) and Chelsea FC (€1.11 billion). FC Barcelona ranks first for non-English teams with an estimated squad value of €991 M, while Juventus FC (€829 M), Bayern Munich (€777 M) and Paris St-Germain (€603 M) head the rankings for the three other big-5 leagues.

The average squad value per club is €474 M for the English Premier League, €281 M for both the Spanish Liga and the German Bundesliga, €276 M for the Italian Serie A and €174 M for the French Ligue 1. The transfer value intervals for all big-5 league players are available for free here. The estimates refer to the situation on the 1st April. Updated figures and projections according to predefined scenarios are available on a consultancy basis.

The 64th CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report crunched InStat data to unveil the effective playing time and other indicators regarding the fluidity of matches in 37 European competitions. It notably shows that the fluidity of the game depends on geographical and cultural logics. The proportion of stoppage time due to fouls in comparison to the total length of matches, for example, varies between just over 10% in the Netherlands up to almost 20% in Greece.

The number of fouls and time lost due to them tends to be higher in Southern and Eastern European leagues than in the championships from the North and West of the continent. The Turkish Süper Lig stands out as the competition in which the time taken to restart play after a foul is the longest: about 35” of stoppage time as opposed to 30” for all leagues. It is also in Turkey that referees add the most extra time: almost 9 minutes on average compared to 6’14” for all competitions surveyed.

The average effective playing time is 61%. It goes from 67% in Israel down to 56% in the Spanish Segunda División. The study also reveals the absence of correlation between the effective playing time and the total length of matches. This shows that the level of fluidity in the game is not taken into account by referees when it comes to adding extra time. This could encourage players of teams in difficulty, or having gained an advantage, to disrupt the rhythm of the game, knowing that the stoppage time has not much influence on the number of minutes added.

Issue number 333 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the percentage of domestic league minutes by footballers who had not yet turned 21 at the time of the matches played this season for 999 clubs from 71 top divisions that are currently running worldwide. The highest percentages were recorded for the Danish side FC Nordsjælland (48.9%) among the 30 major European competitions and the Singaporean team Young Lions (47.1%) for the clubs surveyed outside of Europe.

At big-5 league level, the highest figures were measured for Borussia Dortmund (28.5%), followed by three French Ligue 1 teams: OGC Nice (24.3%), AS Monaco (24.1%) and Stade Rennais (20.7%). The greatest proportion of minutes in the other major championships were registered for Wolverhampton (16.2%), FC Barcelona (15.0%) and Hellas Verona (11.7%). At the opposite end, eight teams did not field any U21 player, among which Tottenham and Inter.

The highest percentage overall was observed for FK Metta (88.0%), the team of the Riga’s University of Latvia. U21 footballers played a majority of minutes in two other Latvian top division teams: Valmiera FC and BFC Daugavpils. Ecuador’s club Independiente del Valle (34.3%) and Alger-based Paradou AC (27.8%) lead the table for America and Africa respectively. The average age on the pitch for clubs in the 31 main European leagues are available in the CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas.

Issue number 332 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares 72 top division leagues worldwide from the perspective of the percentage of matches in which a team won by at least three goals. The lowest proportion of uneven fixtures was recorded in the Colombian Categoría Primera A: just 5 out of 126 (4.0%). At the opposite end of the table is the Solomon Islands top division: 41 uneven games out of 110 (37.3%).

For the UEFA member associations surveyed, the percentages vary between 8.8% in the Albanian Superliga and 31.2% for the Moldovian Divizia Na?ional?. More than one fifth of both the Austrian (23.5%) and German Bundesliga (20.9%) matches ended with at least a three-goal gap between opponent teams. These are much higher percentages than the average measured at the level of the 72 competitions included in the analysis (14.5%).

The Spanish Liga (11.4%) is the only league among the five major European ones where the proportion of uneven fixtures was so far lower than the global average. The contrary holds true for the French Ligue 1 (15.0%), the English Premier League (17.2%) and the Italian Serie A (17.7%). The Arabian Gulf League in the United Arab Emirates (22.2%) and the Stars League in Qatar (21.7%) stand also out as particularly uneven competitions.

The CIES Football Observatory has developed a unique methodology to compare the performance of players irrespective of their position. Issue number 331 of the Weekly Post highlights the outfield footballers with the highest score for domestic league matches played since the 1st of January 2021 for each of the 98 big-5 league clubs. Only players fielded for at least two thirds of minutes during this period are included in the rankings.

The greatest value overall was recorded for Lionel Messi: 92.5 out of 100! Eliminated from the Champions League, the Argentinean striker and FC Barcelona can now focus on the Liga. However, the departure of Luis Suárez will be a major obstacle to the title race. The Uruguayan has indeed the top performance score (84.3) at Atlético Madrid, while Toni Kroos (87.5) leads the table for Real Madrid ahead of Karim Benzema (85.3).

In the other four main European leagues, the highest CIES FO performance index values were registered for Robert Lewandowski in the Bundesliga (89.5), Cristiano Ronaldo in the Serie A (89.3), Guillermo Maripán (86.3) in the Ligue 1 and Jorginho Frello in the Premier League (89.4). In the latter competition, Chelsea’s midfielder outranks Rubén Dias (89.4), Wilfred Ndidi (85.2) and Luke Shaw (83.4). The technical profiles of all big-5 league players are available here.

The CIES Football Observatory has developed a powerful algorithm to assess the transfer value of professional football players on a scientific basis. Issue number 330 of the Weekly Post presents the top valued footballer for each of the 98 teams from the five major European leagues, as well as the percentage that the value of the most expensive player represents out of the total estimated transfer value of his owner club.

With an estimated transfer value of more than €150M, Marcus Rashford is the main asset of Manchester United. The Englishman represents almost 15% of the entire Manchester United’s estimated transfer value. This percentage rises above 20% concerning Erling Haaland and Borussia Dortmund, while it is about 10% for Phil Foden and Manchester City, and just below that proportion for Vinícius Júnior and Real Madrid.

The lowest dependance on the top valued player was recorded for an Italian Serie A team. With an estimated transfer value between €30 and €40M, Italian national A-team centre back Gianluca Mancini represents 8,7% of the total estimated AS Rome’s squad value. At the opposite end of the table is SD Eibar, where Edu Expósito (€15-20M) represents almost 40% of the total squad value. The estimated transfer value intervals for all big-5 league players are accessible for free here.

Major teams are built up over a period of years. The 63rd CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents an innovative approach to comparatively assess the sustainability of squads based on three elements: players’ age, the length of their stay in the employer club and the duration of their contracts. According to these criteria, Manchester United currently has the most sustainable squad among the 98 big-5 league clubs.

Manchester United fans can thus be confident in the ability of their team to qualify without too much difficulty for the group stage of the Champions League over the next seasons, and eventually lift again the Premier League trophy. Ranked just behind Manchester United despite having far fewer financial resources, the Basque clubs Real Sociedad and Athletic Club constitute perfect examples of sustainable squad management. Conversely, Genoa is a perfect example of short-term planning.

While football is not an exact science, data analysis can be an important tool with which to optimise performance. The sustainable squad management rating is not just a descriptive tool allowing the comparison of strategies pursued by teams in the past, which is interesting in itself, but also an instrument to steer future policies so as to increase the chances of success. For more information, please contact us.

Issue number 329 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights footballers having won the highest percentage of domestic league matches in which they participated as starting 11 players since the 15th March 2020. The sample covers 42 top divisions worldwide. It only includes footballers who started at least 20 games in their current league (regular season or play-off matches).

The greatest success rate overall was recorded for Red Star Belgrade’s Milan Gaji? (21 wins out of 22 fixtures), while Bayern Munich’s Serge Gnabry leads the table for the big-5 (21/23). The most successful post-COVID players in the other four major European championships are Bernardo Silva (Manchester City) for the Premier League, Mario Hermoso (Atlético de Madrid) for the Liga, Jonathan David (LOSC) for Ligue 1 and Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan) for Serie A.

At the opposite end of the table, Bastian Oczipka (Schalke 04) did not win any of the 23 German Bundesliga matches played as a starting 11 player. The lowest success rates in the other major European leagues were observed for Sam Johnstone (West Bromwich Albion, 2/27) in England, Anaitz Arbilla (Eibar, 2/21) in Spain, Simone Iacoponi (Parma, 2/22) in Italy and Bruno Ecuélé Manga (Dijon, 2/28) in France.

Issue number 328 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights the most promising youngsters worldwide according to the capital experience approach. The latter weights domestic league minutes played by footballers with the sporting level of their teams of employment on a global level. The greatest capital experience since January 1st 2020 for players born in the 2000s was calculated for Borussia Dortmund’s winger Jadon Sancho.

Two other German Bundesliga players complete the podium: Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Sancho’s teammate at Borussia Dortmund Erling Haaland. Two Englishmen are at the top of the table for 2001-born footballers: Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) and Mason Greenwood (Manchester United). This suggests good prospects for the English national team in the coming years. At the top of the rankings for players born in 2002 is Barcelona’s Pedri González ahead of St. Gallen’s Leonidas Stergiou.

For footballers born in 2003 or after, the highest experience capital gained since a bit more than one year was recorded for Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz. At second position is another German Bundesliga player eligible for England, Borussia Dortmund’s Jude Bellingham, while two additional Englishmen are in the top six positions: Harvey Elliott (Blackburn, on loan from Liverpool) and Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich). Should the latter finally opt for England to become world champion?

Issue number 327 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post crunches the InStat data on the direction of passes made during current season by more than 500 teams from 31 European leagues. No club made so far a greater percentage of passes backwards than current Premier League leaders Manchester City: 41.6%. This reflects the emphasis put on possession by Guardiola’s side.

Six other teams from the five major European leagues are in the top 10 positions of the table: Chelsea (4th), Arsenal (5th), Sassuolo (7th), Barcelona (8th), Paris St-Germain (9th) and Real Madrid (10th). The only exceptions are Shakhtar Donetsk (2nd), Lokomotiv Moscow (3rd) and Ferencvaros (6th). Conversely, with only 24.0% of passes backwards, the bottom-ranked Championship team Wycombe Wanderers are at the bottom of this table too.

The more competitive the leagues, the higher the percentage of backward passes. The greatest proportion of passes backwards was recorded for the English Premier League (36.5%). The time for kick and rush is definitely over. This is not that much the case for less performing championships. The lowest percentage of backward passes was observed in the Austrian Bundesliga (29.6%). More statistics at team level are to be found in the CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas.

Who are the U23 players with the best credentials to make soon their national A-team debut with one of the nations in the 20 top positions of the FIFA rankings? Issue number 326 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post answers this question by considering the experience level that eligible footballers have accumulated during the last year (minutes weighted by sporting level of employment teams or competitions played).

Jules Koundé is the best positioned U23 footballer to celebrate soon his first cap with the reigning world champions of France. The Sevilla’s centre back outranks Moussa Diaby (Bayer Leverkusen) and Boubacar Kamara (Olympique de Marseille). The three U23 uncapped players eligible for England with the greatest experience level over the last year are James Justin (Leicester City), Dwight McNeil (Burnley) and Aaron Ramsdale (Sheffield United).

For the other top nations, Arnaud Bodart (Standard Liège) leads the table for Belgium, Roger Ibañez for Brazil (or eventually Uruguay), Pedro “Pote” Gonçalves (Sporting CP) for Portugal, Marc Cucurella (Getafe) for Spain, Cristian Romero (Atalanta) for Argentina, Gabriele Zappa (Cagliari) for Italy, Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen) for Germany and Érick Sánchez (Pachuca) for Mexico. The top 20s player for the 20 best-ranked nations are available here.

The CIES Football Observatory just disclosed its second analysis on the demographic profile of players and teams in four Latin American top divisions: Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Chili. The study notably reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decrease in the average age of players fielded and brought to an increase in the part of club-trained footballers in squads.

The most important changes were recorded in the Argentinean top division, where the percentage of club-trained players has gone up from 22.6% to 34.1% (+11.5%). As a comparison, the percentage of players from clubs’ youth academies among all footballers fielded in domestic league matches is 19.0% in Chile (+1.2%), 18.5% in Brazil (+3.8%) and 13.5% in Mexico (+0.2%). CA Banfield holds the record for the highest percentage of minutes played by club-trained footballers (76.1%).

The study also reveals that CA Boca Juniors is by far the team having trained the greatest number of players present in the four leagues studied: 48, of whom only seven are still at the Buenos Aires club. With 38 players trained, Santos FC et CA Lanús are the second biggest training clubs, just ahead of the Chileans of Universidad Católica and the Argentineans of CA River Plate (37 players trained in both cases). The full analysis is available in the 62th CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.