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Scouting report: 200 under 21 prospects

With a new transfer window about to open, the 81st edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents its exclusive approach to player scouting, bringing together in a coherent framework different and complementary information such as the footballers’ playing time, level of competition, positions, technical areas of activity, age, contract length and transfer value.

The Report identifies the 200 players - the top 10 in twenty classification categories - born in 2002 or later who have accumulated the most playing experience in the last year. The categories were determined by the players’ primary position and activity level (InStat data) in eight areas of play: three defensive (air defence, ground defence, recovery), four offensive (take on, chance creation, shooting, air attack), as well as distribution.

For each player identified, the report also presents the contractual duration with the owning club and the estimated transfer value based on the CIES Football Observatory statistical model, which has become a reference. An online platform with a wide range of player statistics from 75 leagues around the world is now also available by subscription. Do not hesitate to contact us for more information.

>>> See the Report (pdf) (online)

The following players top the list for the twenty classification categories, with club of employment and estimated transfer value:

  • Goalkeeper: Maarten Vandevoordt (KRC Genk) €18.1 million
  • Defensive centre back: Castello Lukeba (Olympique Lyonnais) €37.0m
  • Ball-playing centre back: Josko Gvardiol (RB Leipzig) €122.4m
  • Defensive left back: John Tolkin (New York RB) €5.1m
  • Defensive right back: Killian Sildillia (SC Freiburg) €5.4m
  • Two-way left back: Nuno Mendes (Paris St-Germain) €66.0m
  • Two-way right back: Amar Dedic (RB Salzburg) €6.6m
  • Attacking left back: Quentin Merlin (FC Nantes) €19.1m
  • Attacking right back: Malo Gusto (Olympique Lyonnais) €17.0m
  • Defensive midfielder: Pablo Maia (São Paulo FC) €10.3m
  • Defensive playmaker: Pedri González (FC Barcelona) €169.8m
  • Two-way midfielder: Nicola Zalewski (AS Roma) €18.7m
  • Attacking playmaker: Kenneth Taylor (AFC Ajax) €32.6m
  • Attacking midfielder: Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund) €211.3m
  • Shot-oriented left winger: Facundo Kruspzky (free) €0.0 m
  • Shot-oriented right winger: Andrés Gómez (Millonarios FC) €8.1m
  • Allrounder left winger: Adam Hlozek (Bayer Leverkusen) €29.8m
  • Allrounder right winger: Angsar Knauff (Eintracht Frankfurt) €15.9m
  • Shot-oriented centre forward: Marcos Leonardo (Santos FC) €29.2m
  • Allrounder centre forward: Rômulo Cardoso (CA Parananense) €4.4m

Tribute to the champions!

Issue number 402 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post pays tribute to the Argentine players who took part in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers or final tournament. Rodrigo de Paul played the most games in total: 23, including all seven in Qatar. Nicolás Otamendi, on the other hand, leads the way in terms of minutes played (2,023).

A total of 40 footballers have played during the qualifiers or the final tournament. Giovani Lo Celso played the most minutes in the qualifiers among those who did not participate in the final tournament. Enzo Fernández, on the other hand, was used the most in the final phase (563 minutes in seven games) without having played in the qualifiers.

With 14 goals, seven of them in the final tournament, Lionel Messi is the Albiceleste player who has scored the most goals on the way to Argentina’s title. That is twice as many as the second highest scorer: Lautaro Martínez (7). Julián Alvarez complete the podium with five goals, four of them in the final phase. In total, thirteen players scored the 42 Argentine goals.

Main training clubs of 2022 World Cup players

Issue 401 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the clubs having trained the most players selected for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Training clubs are those where players have stayed for at least three years between the seasons of their 15th and 21st birthdays. At the top of the list are the Dutch side of AFC Ajax with eleven players trained having represented five different national teams.

Deportivo Saprissa (Costa Rica) and Al Sadd (Qatar) complete the podium with ten and nine players trained respectively, but none of whom have reached the knockout stage. The top three clubs for footballers whose teams have reached the knockout stage are AFC Ajax, Dinamo Zagreb and Sporting CP, with eight players trained in all three cases. Manchester City has trained footballers for the most national teams: six.

Six English clubs and a Welsh one are in the top 50 of the table: Manchester City (7 players trained), Liverpool (also 7), Chelsea (6), Swansea City (6), Arsenal (5), Manchester United (4) and Tottenham Hotspur (4). Produced in collaboration with FIFA’s High Performance Department, the 80th CIES Football Observatory’s Monthly Report presents more exclusive analysis on the development paths of 2022 World Cup players.

Development leagues of World Cup players

The CIES Football Observatory research group is happy to disclose the 400th edition of its Weekly Post, presenting the 50 leagues where 2022 FIFA World Cup footballers have played the most senior matches up until their 23rd birthday. The German Bundesliga leads the table with more than 5,000 games played in the competition by 99 footballers present at the World Cup, representing 25 different national teams.

More World Cup participants (110 players from 26 selections) played in the English Premier League until turning 23, but for fewer matches and minutes than footballers having developed their career in the German Bundesliga and the Spanish Liga. The English Championship is the best ranked second tier competition (seventh), while the Italian Serie A (eighth) tops the table for leagues from an association not qualified for the World Cup.

Produced in collaboration with FIFA High Performance Department, the 80th CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report presents more exclusive data on the development paths of the 2022 FIFA World Cup players. It notably shows that the latter played senior league minutes in no less than 763 teams until they turned 23, of which 26.4% below top domestic league levels. This finding reveals the importance of taking care of all the sporting and economic levels of the football ecosystem to allow players, even the most talented ones, to develop their full potential.

>>> Post n° 400

>>> Report n° 80

Official minutes in 2022: Portugal at the top

Issue number 399 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks the World Cup teams according to the average number of minutes in official matches played in 2022 by the footballers used in the first round. Portugal leads the ranking with an average of 3,378 minutes (between 4,468 for João Cancelo and 2,205 for João Felix), reflecting the importance of the status of the Seleção’s key players within their clubs.

Portugal is ahead of Brazil and Mexico, while three Asian teams are at the bottom of the table: Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran. England (seventh) is among the eleven countries whose first-round players have averaged more than 3,000 minutes in 2022, as are the other two favourites for the tournament according to our Impact Score method: France (eighth) and Spain (eleventh). Korea Republic is by far the best ranked Asian selection: ninth.

On an individual level, Canadian Red Star Belgrade goalkeeper Milan Borjan is the player with the most official minutes in 2022, while Dutch centre back Virgil van Dijk has the highest value for an outfield player: 5,160 minutes. Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur) was the most used English national team player in 2022 (4,830 minutes), while Callum Wilson (Newcastle United) is at the opposite end of the spectrum (only 997 minutes).

>>> Full rankings

Brazil tops World Cup favourites’ list

The CIES Football Observatory research team used its Impact Score metrics to rank the FIFA World Cup 2022 teams from that reuniting the highest rated players to the selection relying on the lowest rated ones. Brazil tops the table by considering both all footballers selected and the eleven with the greatest Impact Score (one goalkeeper and ten outfield players). Costa Rica and Qatar are at the opposite end. The data for all teams is available in the 398th Weekly Post.

Spain are ranked behind Brazil when all the players selected are taken into consideration, while France would be the second main favourite if the average Impact Score of the ten best rated outfield players and goalkeeper is considered. England, Portugal and Germany also have the players to dream of winning the most coveted trophy. Argentina, the Netherlands, Belgium and Croatia are the principal outsiders.

The Impact Score is calculated from the average sporting level of matches in which players participated over the last 365 days, official game minutes played during the same time range and pitch performance compared to both teammates and opponents, as well as with respect to players with the same technical profile as per the role-based approach also freshly developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. The Impact Score for players from more than 70 leagues worldwide is available here.

Squad values: England, Brazil and France lead the way

The 831 players of the FIFA 2022 World Cup have a total estimated transfer value of €15 billion. By selection, the values range from as little as €23 million for the 26 footballers in the Costa Rica’s squad to a maximum of €1.5 billion for the players called up by England. Issue 397 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the data for all the national teams.

Borussia Dortmund’s young crack Jude Bellingham has the top estimated transfer value among all World Cup players: €202m. Brazil has the second highest valued squad of the World Cup, with a total transfer value of €1.45 billion and a maximum for the decisive scorer of the last Champions League final, Real Madrid’s Vinícius Junior: € 200m (second highest value overall).

France is the third nation with the highest estimated transfer value: €1.34 billion. Despite a contract with Paris St-Germain running only until 2024, Kylian Mbappé is the top valued player of the French national team: €185m. The transfer values of all footballers from the five major European leagues are available here for free. This scientific paper presents the CIES Football Observatory’s statistical approach to estimating player values.

>>> Weekly Post

New study: demographic profiling of European football

The CIES Football Observatory research group is happy to disclose its 79th Monthly Report on the demographic profile of players, clubs and leagues across Europe. In 2022, new records were set with regard to the percentage of expatriate footballers (42.3%) and, negatively, for the proportion of club-trained players (17.0%). In both cases, the trend reversal observed following the pandemic was short-lived.

The sample analysed includes 12,281 players active in 477 clubs of 31 top divisions of UEFA member associations. The typical portrait of the footballer in the sample is that of a man aged 26, with a height of just over 182 cm, present in the first team squad of his employer club for two years and three months and having in almost six cases out of ten already lived an experience abroad during his career.

A new record for the percentage of expatriate players was notably broken in the Italian Serie A (61.7%). The Italian top division also holds the negative record for the percentage of club-trained players in squads: 8.4%. These findings reflect the lack of importance given to training in the country, which reduces the poolof talents with a sufficient level to play at the highest level.

Clubs in three of the five major leagues have the most stable squads: the English Premier League with a player’s average tenure in the first team squad of his employer club of 3.1 years, the German Bundesliga (3.0 years) and the Spanish Liga (2.9 years). The longest player’s average tenure per club was recorded for Champions League title holders Real Madrid (5.1 years), which confirms the importance of long-term planning for optimum results.

>>> Access all Monthly Reports

Top transfer values for non-big-5 U25 players

The 396th CIES Football Weekly Post presents the 100 players outside the big-5 who have not yet turned 25 with the highest estimated transfer value. Three players stand out with values of around €60 million: Benfica’s Argentine midfielder Enzo Fernández, PSV Eindhoven’s Dutch striker Cody Gakpo and Porto’s Portuguese goalkeeper Diogo Costa.

Only one other player outside the big-5 has an estimated value of more than €50 million: Portuguese centre back Gonçalo Inacio (Sporting CP). The highest transfer values for footballers playing outside of Europe were recorded for Brazilians: Yuri Alberto (Corinthians, €30m), Danilo Oliveira (Palmeiras, €29m) and Marcos Leonardo (Santos, €28m). Fifteen leagues are represented in the top 100, with a maximum of 21 players for the Dutch Eredivisie.

The values were estimated on the basis of a statistical model developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team from almost 5,000 paid transfers concluded over the last decade. A scientific article explaining the approach is available in open access. Estimates for more than 15,000 players from about 50 leagues worldwide are available through a paying platform. Do not hesitate to contact us about this.

Manchester City fielded costliest starting 11 lineups

The 395th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post reveals that Manchester City fielded so far the most expensive starting 11 lineups from a transfer cost perspective. On average, Citizens’ starting lineups for Premier League games included players for whom the club invested up to €605m in transfer fees. Paris St-Germain (€510m) and Manchester United (€480m) complete the podium. The figures include eventual add-ons irrespective of their effective payment.

The most expensive starting 11 lineup was fielded by Manchester City on the 22 October for the 3-1 win against Brighton & Hove (€726m), while the Citizens’ “cheapest” one was fielded on the 31st of August for the 6-0 win against Nottingham Forest (€538m). For Paris St-Germain, the extreme values stretch from €610m (for the 1-0 win against Olympique de Marseille) down to €332m (for the 0-0 draw against Stade Reims).

Real Madrid (€370m), Juventus (€300m) and Bayern Munich (€294m) total the greatest figures for the other big-5 European leagues. Per competition, the average transfer expenditure to assemble starting 11 lineups is €233m in the Premier League, €83m in the Serie A, €76m in the Liga, €72m in the Bundesliga and €65m in the Ligue 1 (down to €41m not including Paris St-Germain). More insights will be published on our social media channels: Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok.

Top training clubs for European-based players

Issue number 394 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the rankings of teams having trained the most footballers active in 31 top divisions leagues of UEFA member associations, as well as the five major ones respectively. Training clubs are those where footballers have played for at least three years between the seasons of their 15th and 21st birthday. The 31 leagues covered correspond to those available in the Demographic Atlas.

AFC Ajax tops the table at the level of the 31 top divisions (85 players trained) ahead of SL Benfica (73) and Dinamo Kiev (72), while Real Madrid ranks first for footballers in the the big-5 (43) ahead of Barcelona (38) and the French duo Paris St-Germain and Olympique Lyonnais (34). Sporting CP heads the rankings for non-big-5 league clubs having trained the most footballers currently playing in the five major championships (24), with River Plate at the top for teams outside of Europe (14).

The Post also presents a Training Index, calculated by weighting the number of players trained per club by their experience capital. The latter metrics combines official game minutes played and the experience level of all footballers involved in these matches. AFC Ajax and Real Madrid also top the Training Index rankings for players active in 31 European top divisions and the big-5 respectively, with Sporting CP at third position in both tables.

Players included had to be present on the 1st of October of the year of reference in the first team squad of the clubs analysed. Moreover, they had to have already played in domestic league games during the current season or, this being not the case, to have played matches in adult championships during each of the two previous ones (B-teams not included). The second and eventual third goalkeepers were considered in all cases. The lists of players trained for up to three clubs are available for free on demand.

Age at recruitment: from Real Madrid to Chelsea

Football clubs pursue different politics in terms of age at which players are signed. Issue number 393 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses from this perspective 3,778 transfers carried out during the last ten seasons by the 50 clubs always present in the five major European leagues over this period. Average recruitment ages stretch from just 22.87 years of age for Real Madrid up to a maximum of 26.71 years of age for Chelsea.

No English or Italian teams are in the top ten of clubs having on average signed the youngest players. Conversely, in the list are five German clubs (Borussia Mönchengladbach, Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg, Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich), three French teams (Nice, LOSC Lille and Monaco), as well as two Spanish ones (Real Madrid and Real Sociedad). Real Madrid is the only team among the 50 surveyed that did not sign players aged 30 or over during the decade analysed.

At the opposite end of the table, among the ten teams having on average recruited the most experienced players are five English clubs (Chelsea, West Ham, Manchester United, Everton and Crystal Palace), four Italian sides (Inter, Milan, Fiorentina and Lazio), as well as a Spanish one (Atlético Madrid). Detailed information on the methodology used and further analyses of recruitment policies followed by big-5 league teams from an age perspective are available in the brand-new October’s CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

>>> Go to the Weekly Post

>>> Go to the Monthly Report

You said exciting? Germans do it better

Issue number 392 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post crunched InStat data to rank 74 leagues worldwide according to the number of chances per game recorded during the current calendar year. The German Bundesliga leads the table with 12.96 chances per match, while the Brazilian Serie B is at the opposite end with on average one third less clear-cut opportunities to score per game (8.41).

The German Bundesliga is the best ranked league of the big-5 also with regard to goals per match: 3.04. However, in this case, five competitions recorded higher values, with a maximum of 3.38 for the Swiss second division. The greatest figure outside of Europe was recorded in Australia (3.04). Conversely, nine non-European leagues are among the eleven that recorded the lowest figures, with the Ukrainian and Bulgarian top divisions as only exceptions.

Rankings are quite different by considering the average number of penalty goals per game. The Russian top division (0.41) heads the table. The top two Japanese leagues and the English second to fourth levels of competition are at the opposite end, with the English Premier League recording the lowest figure among the five major European championships. Whether it is for chances, goals or penalty goals, the study shows the continued existence of different approaches to the game by coaches, players and referees across the world.

>>> Go to the Post

Passing game: Manchester City shines

The 391st edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses InStat data on passes for 1,226 teams from 71 competitions worldwide. Manchester City leads the table with 754 passes attempted per domestic league game. Only two of the 1’226 clubs surveyed also made more than 700 passes per match: the Japanese second division side Albirex Niigata (713) and Portuguese giants SL Benfica (708).

The number of passes attempted greatly vary between clubs. In the English Premier League, for example, Manchester City makes on average 2,1x more passes per game than the club attempting the least, Bournemouth: 754 vs 352. The lowest figure overall was recorded for the Saudi side Al-Batin FC (199 per game), while the minimum at big-5 league level was measured for Spanish Liga’s Getafe CF (329).

The Post also presents the data on the percentage of successful passes, as well as their distribution between forward (angle span 90°), backward (idem) and lateral. The greatest figure for successful passes was recorded for Paris St-Germain (91.4%), ahead of Manchester City (90.8%) and Real Madrid (90.0%). Istanbul Basaksehir leads the table for backward passes (20.2% of the total), Bodo/Glimt for lateral passes (61.3%) and the Argentineans of Deportivo Riestra for forward ones (64.6%).

>>> Access the Post

Youngest teams in 60 leagues worldwide

Issue number 390 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks clubs from 60 leagues worldwide (not including B-teams) according to the average age of line-ups fielded during the current or last completed season. Valencia is the youngest team within the five major European championships (on average 23.99 years, 25% of minutes by U21 players), while the record-low figure was observed for the Danish side FC Nordsjælland (22.31 years, 74% of minutes by U21 footballers).

The youngest teams in the other leagues of the big-5 are Stuttgart (24.22) in Germany, Southampton (24.40) in England, Lecce (24.56) in Italy and Stade de Reims (24.83) in France. Spanish giants Barcelona fielded players aged 21 or less for the highest percentage of domestic league minutes (29.5%). Conversely, Atlético Madrid and Tottenham are among the five big-5 league teams that did not yet field U21 footballers.

The extreme figures for line-ups’ age in South America were recorded for the Venezuelans of Zulia FC (23.74 years) and, at the opposite end, the Paraguayans of 12 de Octubre (31.97 years). At league level, the figures stretch from a minimum of 25.23 years of age in the Dutch Eredivisie to a maximum of 29.31 for the Thai top division. At big-5 league level, the values vary from 26.60 years of age in the French Ligue 1 to 27.54 in the Spanish Liga.

>>> Weekly Post

Manchester United leads overspending table

Issue number 389 of the Weekly Post assesses paying fee transfer operations carried out by current big-5 league clubs since July 2012. The study compares players’ values prior to transfer, estimated according to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model, and fees actually paid. This allows us to highlight clubs having most driven inflation up, with Manchester United heading the rankings.

Manchester United’s total investment for the 33 fee paying transfers assessed in the study was €238M greater than the estimated value of players concerned: €1.59 vs €1.36 billion (+18%). Juventus (€233 M, +29%) and Paris St-Germain (€162M, +19%) complete the overspending table’s podium. Only three Premier League teams figure among the 36 clubs that invested less money than expected to conclude the fee-paying deals assessed. This confirms their key role in driving up inflation on the transfer market.

Deals concluded by triggering buy-out or option-to-buy clauses were not included in the sample analysed. Only 86 current big-5 league clubs for which we were able to assess at least ten fee-paying transfers figure in the rankings. More information about the CIES Football Observatory’s scientific method to assess players’ transfer values and fees is available in this open access peer review paper.

Most impactful U25 players worldwide

Issue number 388 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 Impact Score rates among footballers who did not yet celebrate their 25th birthday for each of the fifteen technical profiles identified by the CIES Football Observatory’s role-based approach. The greatest values overall (100/100) were recorded for Alessandro Bastoni (blocker playmaker), Éder Militão (pure blocker), Jules Koundé (air blocker filter man) and Vinícius Júnior (infiltrator creator).

The Impact Score is an exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s metrics developed to assess players’ sporting achievement and potential. It is calculated by taking into consideration the average match level in which players participated according to the experience capital method, official game minutes played over the last 365 days, as well as pitch performance compared to both teammates, opponents and same profile’s players.

The role-based approach used to determine technical profiles clusters players according to the level of their involvement in eight areas of the game with respect to teammates: air defence, ground defence, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation, air attack and shooting.

An exclusive tool, powered by InStat data, displaying big-5 league players’ technical profile, performance level, age, contractual status, estimated transfer value and suitable potential replacements among footballers from 59 leagues worldwide is accessible for free here. A premium version is available for professionals. Do not hesitate to contact us for more information and insights.

Costliest squads: City ahead of local rivals United

Issue number 387 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks big-5 league teams according to transfer fees invested to sign their current squad members. Manchester City heads the rankings closely followed by local rivals Manchester United. Chelsea completes an all-English podium, while Paris St-Germain tops the table for non-Premier League teams.

The Manchester teams are the only clubs worldwide with a transfer fee spending to assemble the squad greater than one billion euro (including add-ons irrespective of their effective payment). Real Madrid (€721M) has the costliest squad in the Spanish Liga, Bayern Munich (€499M) in the German Bundesliga and Juventus (€473M) in the Italian Serie A. The data for 2020/21 is available here.

The freshly released CIES Football Observatory September’s Monthly Report presents further financial analysis of big-5 league transfers. It notably shows that Manchester United tops the table for the most negative net transfer spending over the last decade (-€1.27 billion), ahead of Manchester City (€902M) and Paris St-Germain (€868M).

Premier League clubs break the piggy bank

During the last transfer window, Premier League teams invested an all-time high of €2.6 billion (including add-ons) to sign new players. Overall, the big-5 league clubs’ expenditure reached €5.2 billion for the summer and €6.2 bn for the whole 2022 calendar year. This is the second highest figure ever observed, an increase of 61% compared to 2021 and just 7% below the record high of 2019. More exclusive transfer fee data is available for free in the freshly published 77th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

An all-time high was also recorded with regard to the share of transfer fees paid by English Premier League teams out of total big-5 league clubs’ investments. From an average of 38.7% during the ten-year period studied, this percentage reached a peak of 48.5% in 2022. In ten years, the English Premier League cumulated a transfer deficit of -€9.5 billion, followed by the Italian Serie A with “just” -€1.4 bn. The French Ligue 1 is at the opposite end (+€350M).

Three French clubs, LOSC Lille (+€379M), Olympique Lyonnais (+€282M) and Monaco (+€215M), are at the top of the rankings for current big-5 league teams with the most positive net transfer spending over the past decade. Manchester United is at the opposite end (-€1.27 billion), followed by Manchester City (-€902M) and Paris St-Germain (-€868M). Manchester City (€279M) heads the table for transfer fees received from big-5 league clubs in 2022, ahead of AFC Ajax (€226M).

All CIES Football Observatory’s reports available for free here!

The 250 hottest football prospects worldwide

Issue number 386 of the Weekly Post crunched InStat technical performance data within the framework of the freshly conceived CIES Football Observatory’s Impact Score (IS) method to unveil 250 hot prospects born in 2000 or after in 59 leagues worldwide. Vinícius Júnior (2000, IS of 100), Bukayo Saka (2001, IS 92), Joško Gvardiol (2002, IS 94), Jude Bellingham (2003, IS 91) and Pablo Gavi (2004 or younger, IS 93) top the rankings per year of birth.

Sandro Tonali and Vitinha Ferreira complete the podium for players born in 2000, such as Jurriën Timber and Gonçalo Inácio for 2001-born footballers. The second and third-ranked players for the other years of birth are Piero Hincapié and Eduardo Camavinga (2002), Jamal Musiala and Harvey Elliott (2003), as well as Gabriel Slonina and Daniil Khudyakov (2004 or younger). The Impact Score values for footballers from the 59 leagues selected are available for free in this exclusive tool.

The Impact Score is calculated from the average match level in which players participated according to the experience capital method, their amount of official game minutes played over the last 365 days and their pitch performance compared to both teammates and opponents, as well as with respect to players with the same technical profile as per the role-based approach also freshly developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team.

Final rankings of 23 European leagues revealed

The CIES Football Observatory launches its 2022/23 season with the final tables’ forecasting for 23 top divisions of UEFA member associations. The predictions were carried out from a statistical model including teams’ performances over the two previous seasons, current players’ experience capital and clubs’ transfer market expenditure. The full tables are available for free in the 385th Weekly Post.

Inter would be the only new champion in the five major European leagues, where hierarchies are well established. Sporting CP would be crowned in Portugal instead of Porto, while Fenerbahçe would overtake Trabzonspor in Turkey. Slavia Praha in the Czech Republic, Midtjylland in Denmark, Rangers in Scotland, as well as Young Boys in Switzerland are also supposed to beat previous champions.

With respect to relegation fight in the five major European leagues, the following teams already present in the top division are in great danger: Southampton in the Premier League; Mallorca and Cádiz in the Liga; Clermont Foot, Troyes and Angers in the Ligue 1; Hertha BSC and Bochum in the Bundesliga; as well as Salernitana in the Serie A. An update will be available on demand after the end of the transfer window.

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Women’s football leagues’ report: consolidation under way

The June 2022 Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the evolution in the squad make up of clubs from ten women’s leagues worldwide since 2017. The study notably shows that the strong increase in the percentage of minutes played by expatriate footballers observed between 2017 and 2021 did not continue in the last year.

As for imported players, after four consecutive years of growth, the average age of line-ups fielded by teams did not increase during last year. Since 2017, however, a growth was recorded in eight of the ten leagues studied, with a notable rise in the English Women’s Super League (+2.3 years of age). By league, in 2022, the values vary between 22.1 years of age in the Netherlands and 27.1 in the United States.

The United States also stand out as the main exporting country. With 82 footballers abroad, US citizens outrank the Swedes (46 expatriates) and the Canadians (42). Players from the United States are present in all the leagues studied, with a maximum of 22 representatives in the Swedish Damallsvenskan. In total, 73 associations have at least one expatriate in one of the ten leagues analysed.

Go to the REPORT

Transfer values: Mbappé back to the top

The last CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post before the summer break presents the top 100 estimated transfer values for players worldwide. Thanks to his fresh three-year contract extension with Paris St-Germain, Kylian Mbappé (€206) is back at the top of the list. The French world champion outranks the previous leader and recent Champions League winner Vinícius Júnior (€185M), as well as the new Manchester City striker Erling Haaland (€153M).

The Portuguese Rúben Dias has the greatest estimated transfer value for a centre back: €110M. Gianluigi Donnarumma (€74M) tops the table for goalkeepers, Trent Alexander-Arnold (€87M) for full backs and Pedri González (€135M) for midfielders. Benfica’s striker Darwin Núñez (47th, €70M) has the highest valuation for non-big-5 league players. The 30-year-old Kevin de Bruyne (76th, €57) is the oldest player in the top 100, while 17-year-old Pablo Gavi (73rd, €58M) is the youngest one.

English Premier League clubs dominate the ranking with 41 representatives in the top 100. Transfer value estimate intervals for all big-5 league footballers are available for free here. More information on the CIES Football Observatory approach to assess the transfer value of professional football players on a scientific basis is available in this freshly published peer-reviewed paper. Please contact us to know more about pour services.

TOP 100

Young players of the semester: Bellingham stands out

Issue number 383 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 footballers who have not yet celebrated their 20th birthday who gained the most playing experience during the first semester of the year. Borussia Dortmund’s and England’s midfielder Jude Bellingham heads the rankings ahead of the FC Barcelona’s and Spain’s duo Pablo Gavi and Pedri González.

Fulham’s FC Fábio Carvalho (7th) is the top ranked player outside of the big-5, ahead of Sparta Prague’s Adam Hložek and Martin Vitík. The podium of U20 footballers playing outside of Europe who gained the most experience since the start of the year is composed of Marcos Leonardo (Santos FC), Juan David Mosquera (Independiente Medellín) and Santiago Simón (River Plate).

The rankings were established according to the experience capital method, which takes into consideration minutes played in official games and their sporting level. This method allows us to combine into a single metrics players’ employment and the level of games in which they participated. More information is available in this Report and on demand.

Best XIs for 32 European leagues

With the 2021/22 seasons coming to an end, this CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the Best XI for 32 European leagues using its exclusive Impact Score approach combining team results with player employment and technical performance as per InStat data. Tactical formations were chosen by first including top-ranked players in the most frequent position played and adding then footballers for complementary positions.

Players from 21 clubs were selected in the Best XIs for the big-5: Liverpool (6), Manchester City (4) and Tottenham (Harry Kane) in England; Real Madrid (6), Sevilla (2), Barcelona (2) and Betis (Nabil Fekir) in Spain; Milan (4), Inter (3), Juventus (2), Napoli (Amir Rrahmani) and Fiorentina (Nicolás González) in Italy; Bayern Munich (9), Borussia Dortmund (Jude Bellingham) and Bochum (Manuel Riemann) in Germany; Paris St-Germain (5), Marseille (2), Rennes (Benjamin Bourigeaud), Monaco (Aurélien Tchouaméni), Strasbourg (Ludovic Ajorque) and Nice (Walter Benítez) in France.

The ten youngest players in the Best XIs are Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund), Arsen Zakharyan (Dinamo Moskow), Ilya Zabarnyi (Dynamo Kiev), Adam Hlozek (Sparta Prague), Nuno Mendes (PSG), Jakub Kaminski (Lech Poznan), Ryan Gravenberch (Ajax), Karim Adeyemi (RB Salzburg), Liel Abada (Celtic) and Jurriën Timber (Ajax). The Post also includes the technical profile of players selected according to fifteen categories as explained in this Report.

Goalkeepers’ passing game: 36 leagues worldwide

The 381st CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the passing game of goalkeepers from 36 leagues worldwide as per data from InStat. The percentage of long forward passes out of total passes stretches from just 8.2% for Paris St-Germain goalie Keylor Navas up to 83.6% for Paksi FC’s Gergö Rácz. Only goalkeepers who played at least 1’000 domestic league minutes (injury time included) were taken into consideration.

The record percentage of long forward passes (at least 40 meters with a span angle of 90°) at big-5 league level was recorded for Burnley FC’s Nick Pope (73.1%) ahead of CA Osasuna’s Sergio Herrera (72.2%). In absolute terms, the greatest value was recorded for Bochum’s Manuel Riemann (27.5 per match on average). Derby County’s Ryan Allsop made the most passes per game (50.0), ahead of Hamburger SV Daniel Heuer Fernandes (48.4).

Goalkeepers passing data heavily reflects the style of play of teams. On a league level, the percentage of goalkeepers’ long forward passes stretches from only 35.7% in the Turkish Süper Lig up to 58.4% in the Scottish Premiership. High figures were also recorded in the English Championship (49.0%) and the Argentinean Liga Profesional (47.5%). More technical data from InStat is exclusively available in the CIES Football Observatory Performance Stats tool.

Exporting countries: Brazil ahead of France

The 380th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 80 associations with the most players abroad in 135 leagues worldwide. Brazil heads the pack with 1,219 expatriates, followed by France (978) and Argentina (815). While the number of Brazilians and Argentineans abroad went just slightly up since 2017, that of the French increased more significantly.

England’s fourth place is explained essentially by the strong presence of players having grown up in this country in teams of other United Kingdom associations, as well as in Ireland: about 57% of the total number of English expatriates. Germany’s fifth place is notably related to the return migration of numerous players of Turkish origin born and raised in Germany.

Since 2017, the greatest increases in absolute terms were recorded for the French (+208 expatriates), the Dutch (+137) and the Colombians (+124). In relative terms, among nations with at least 100 expatriates, the highest rises were recorded for the Venezuelans (+86%), the Dutch (+60%) and the Austrian (+51%). More exclusive analysis is available for free in the 75th Monthly Report and the CIES Football Observatory Atlas of Migration.

Top transfer values outside the big-5

Issue number 379 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 estimated transfer values as per the CIES Football Observatory algorithm for 10 non-big-5 league top divisions worldwide: Portugal, the Netherlands, Brazil, Belgium, the United States/Canada, Austria, Turkey, Denmark, Switzerland and Scotland. The greatest value overall was recorded for SL Benfica’s striker Darwin Núñez (€71 million).

Darwin Núñez meets all the most important criteria for a very high valuation: young age (not yet 23 years old), long contract (more than three years remaining), playing for a competitive team (SL Benfica) and performing very well, notably from a goal-scoring perspective. Rumours of the Uruguayan striker’s departure for an English top club are entirely plausible. As the latter tend to push up inflation in player prices, a €80-million deal, as publicly reported, is perfectly imaginable.

The following players have the top estimated values in the nine remaining leagues surveyed: Antony dos Santos (NED, €57M), Charles De Ketelaere (BEL, €40M), Gabriel Barbosa (BRA, €39M), Karim Adeyemi (AUT, €31M), Muhammed Aktürkoglu (TUR, €20M), Alan Velasco (USA, €20M), Liel Abada (SCO, €19M), Anders Dreyer (DEN, €15M), as well as Dan Ndoye (SUI, €15M).

Only players for whom we were able to recover the information on contract duration were included in the analysis. Nevertheless, as contract information for the most prominent footballers is generally available, the rankings should accurately reflect reality. Transfer values estimates for players in the big-5 can be accessed for free here. Please contact us for more information on our services.

Club-trained players’ minutes: Athletic Club at the top

No team during current big-5 league season fielded club-trained players for a greater percentage of minutes than Athletic Club: 55.8%. The Basque side outranks local rivals Real Sociedad (43.9%), while Celta Vigo (41.2%) complete an all-Spanish podium. The Slovaks of MŠK Žilina (85.5%) top the table for clubs from 40 leagues worldwide. The data for all clubs is available in the 378th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.

The Colombians of Envigado (76.4%) head the rankings for the nine non-European leagues included in the study, ahead of four Argentinean teams (CA Banfield, CA Lanús, Rosario Central and CA Unión) and the Brazilians of Corinthians (56.3%). Club-trained footballers are defined as players who have been at their employer clubs for at least three years between the seasons during which they celebrated their 15th and 21st birthday.

At league level, the figures stretch from a record-low of 4.0% in the Greek Super League to a record-high of 26.0% in the Argentinean Liga Professional. On average, teams from the 40 leagues surveyed fielded club-trained players for 15.0% of domestic league minutes. Among the 42 teams who did not use club-trained footballers notably are Brentford, Bayer Leverkusen, Bologna and Udinese.

More exclusive information on clubs from 31 European top divisions is available for free in the CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas.

Best players per technical profile

Issue number 377 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post relies on technical data produced by InStat to unveil the best performing outfield players in 32 European leagues. Footballers were classified into fifteen technical profiles and ranked according to their performance level with respect to both teammates and opponents, their playing time, as well as their team and league sporting strength.

The following players top the table for the seven attacking profiles: Trent Alexander-Arnold (playmaker creator), Andrew Robertson (playmaker infiltrator), Bukayo Saka (infiltrator creator), Karim Benzema (shooter creator), Vinícius Júnior (shooter infiltrator), Thomas Müller (allarounder target man) and Robert Lewandowski (target man shooter).

At the top of the eight defensive profiles are Éder Militão (ground-to-air blocker), Virgil van Dijk (air blocker filter man), Aymeric Laporte (air blocker playmaker), David Alaba (ground blocker filter man), João Cancelo (ground blocker playmaker), Rodri Hernández (filter man playmaker), Bernardo Silva (defensive infiltrator) and Toni Kroos (defensive shooter).

To know more about the fifteen technical profiles conceived by the CIES Football Observatory research team, please refer to the 74th edition of the Monthly Report. Feel you free to contact us for more information.

Top transfer values: U23 big-5 league rookies

Pioneers in the transfer economic valuation field, since 2010, the CIES Football Observatory has been developing a statistical method to assess market prices for professional football players. Issue number 376 of the Weekly Post presents the highest estimated transfer values for the 50 footballers who did not yet celebrate their 23rd birthday and made their big-5 league debut during current season.

Joško Gvardiol tops the table with an estimated value of €96.2M. While only 20-years-old, the centre back has established himself as a pillar of both RB Leipzig and Croatia. If transferred, he could break the record for the greatest fee ever paid for a defender. Gvardiol’s teammate at RB Leipzig Dominik Szoboszlai and FC Barcelona’s prodigy Pablo Gavi complete the podium for the most expensive U23 big-5 league rookies.

To know more about the method and variables used by the CIES Football Observatory research team to assess football players’ transfer fees and values, please refer to this scientific paper freshly published in the peer-review open access journal Economies. The fee estimate intervals for all big-5 league players are available for free on our website. Please contact us for more information about our approach and services.

Best performing youngsters: Bukayo Saka at the top

Issue number 375 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 best performing U21 outfield players from 32 European leagues according to a brand-new approach taking into consideration players’ performance compared to teammates, the employer team’s sporting level, as well as that of opponents. Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) outranks Mason Greenwood (Manchester United) and Patrick Wimmer (Arminia Bielefeld).

For all players listed, the study does not only mention their pitch position, but also the role played within the team according to fifteen technical profile categories. The latter are built from eleven game indicators collected by our partners InStat, covering eight different game areas as detailed in the 74th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report: air defence, ground defence, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation, air attack and shooting.

Bukayo Saka, for example, is part of the “infiltrator creator” category, defining players particularly active in the “take on” and “chance creation” areas. Mason Greenwood has a “shooter infiltrator” profile (“shooting and take on”), while Patrick Wimmer a “shooter creator” one (“shooting and chance creation). Players from 26 leagues and 14 technical profiles are in the top 100, with the French Ligue 1 (14 players) and the “infiltrator creators” (24 players) being the most represented.

U21 employment worldwide: Venezuela ahead of Denmark

Issue number 374 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 60 leagues worldwide according to the percentage of minutes played since the 1st of January 2021 by footballers that did not yet celebrate their 21st birthday at matches played. The greatest figures were recorded in the Venezuelan (18.8%) and Danish top divisions (16.5%). The Saudi Pro League is at the opposite end (1.6%).

Regarding the average age of line-ups fielded, the lowest values were recorded in the Croatian top division (25.3 years of age), the Mexican Liga Expansión and the Danish Superliga. At the other end of the spectrum are three non-European leagues: the Paraguayan top division (28.9 years of age), the Thai League 1 and the Primera División in Bolivia.

More information on clubs from 31 top divisions of UEFA member associations is available for free in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas. Additional data is published on our social media accounts: Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. Do not hesitate to follow us to gain even more knowledge on our beloved beautiful game!

Coaches’ average tenure duration: global analysis

Issue number 373 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 90 top divisions worldwide according to the average tenure duration of coaches (as per last 1st March). The values stretch from 1,536 days in Northern Ireland to only 156 days in Saudi Arabia. More exclusive analysis on coaches is available in the 73th edition of the Monthly Report.

The average tenure duration of coaches in Europe is greater than in other continents: 506 days for clubs in UEFA member associations and 402 days for teams in other continents. An even shorter average tenure duration was recorded in clubs from the South American confederation: 303 days. This goes hand in hand with a greater player turnover.

The average tenure duration is much higher than the median one: 459 days compared to 243 days. This reflects the fact that some coaches are able to hold their position for much longer than the usual period. However, on the 1st of March, only 20% of coaches had been in their position for more than two years. At the opposite, 39% were in place since less than six months.

Net international transfer spending: from England to Portugal

Issue number 372 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the net spending on international transfers concluded since July 2017 by clubs of the 40 most active nations from an incoming and outcoming fee volume perspective. England (- €4.35 billion) and Portugal (+€1.15 billion) recorded the most negative and, respectively, positive trade balances.

Italy has the second most negative trade balance on international transfers concluded since the start of the 2017/18 season (-€910 million), followed by China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Spain. At the opposite end of the table, Brazil (+€1.02 billion) is just behind Portugal and outranks the Netherlands, France, Argentina and Belgium.

The data includes eventual add-ons irrespective of their effective payment, as well as sell-on percentages. However, this information, such as that on transfer fees themselves, is not always available. The figures presented are thus to be considered approximations that are as accurate as possible. FIFA’s annual reports with official aggregated data are available for free here.

Pause time for fouls: Latin America stands out

Issue number 371 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 38 leagues worldwide according to the InStat data on stoppage due to fouls. The two greatest figures were recorded for Latin American leagues, the Mexican and Colombian top divisions, while the highest fouls’ pause time out of the 33 European leagues surveyed was measured in Portugal.

All the five Latin American championships included in the sample are in the top 10 positions of the rankings. On average, the stoppage time for fouls is 15’43” in Latin America and 13’04” in Europe. This reflects a higher number of fouls per match (on average 27.0 vs 25.7), but also a greater time pause per foul (35.2” vs 30.8”).

The extreme values for fouls per match were recorded in Serbia (30.7) and the Netherlands (20.3), while those for stoppage time per foul were measured in Colombia (38.3”) and Belarus (25.3”). The data refers to the ongoing season for winter leagues and to the 2021 season for summer ones (including current season’s matches if already started).

Most profitable academies: corrected rankings

Dear subscribers, thanks to the vigilance of many of you, we have found several omissions in our 370th Weekly Post. We are really sorry about it. Finally, the Portuguese side of SL Benfica leads the table with about €379 M.

Real Madrid ran the second most profitable academy from an economic perspective during the period considered (€330 M), while AS Monaco completes the podium (€285 M) ahead of the Dutch side of AFC Ajax (€283 M). Flamengo (13th), River Plate (27th) and Santos (28th) are in the top three positions for non-European teams.

With €2.03 billion, English clubs generated then most money by the transfer of academy graduates since July 2015, just ahead French teams (€1.61 billion). Spanish clubs (€1.39 billion) complete the podium per nation, ahead of the Italians (€1.11 billion), the Brazilians (€951 M), the Germans (€916 M), the Portuguese (€788 M), the Dutch (€709 M) and the Argentineans (€566 M).

Most profitable youth academies worldwide: Monaco at the top

Issue number 370 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 50 of clubs worldwide having generated the most incomes since July 2015 from the transfer of players graduated from their youth academy. Thanks to the paying fee transfer of nine players trained, including Kylian Mbappé’s record one to PSG, AS Monaco (€246 M) tops the table, ahead of Real Madrid (€235 M) and Olympique Lyonnais (€228 M).

Six teams outside of big-5 league countries are in the top 20 positions of the rankings: AFC Ajax (4th, €211 M generated by the transfer of ten academy pupils), SL Benfica (5th, €202 M), PSV Eindhoven (8th, 142 M), Dinamo Zagreb (11th, €110 M), Sporting CP (12th, €106 M not including the further €20 M to come for Rafael Leão following the recent CAS award), RSC Anderlecht (16th, 91 M), as well as RB Salzburg (20th, € 76 M).

With €1.17 billion, French clubs generated then most money by the transfer of youth academy players since July 2015, just ahead English teams (€1.13 billion). Despite their low propensity to field club-trained footballers, Italian teams complete the podium with €743 M (with Atalanta 1st), ahead of the Spanish (€703 M, of which one third by Real Madrid), the Dutch (€564 M), the German (€551 M, with Bayer Leverkusen 1st) and the Brazilians (€403 M).

Statistical proximity between players: new method

The 72nd Monthly Report presents the method developed by the CIES Football Observatory to rank footballers according to their style of play. From the data gathered by InStat, the study notably calculates statistical distances between players, a particularly useful approach from a scouting perspective. The sample is composed of 7,215 footballers from clubs in 36 top and second division leagues across Europe.

The analysis reveals that, for example, James Maddison is the big-5 league footballer closest to Kylian Mbappé from the perspective of the technical actions performed. This exercise can be carried out for any player. Always at big-5 league level, Dusan Vlahovic is the footballer who is closest to Erling Haaland, Paulo Dybala to Lionel Messi, Romain Faivre to Neymar Junior, Dominik Szoboszlai to Kevin de Bruyne, Remo Freuler to Jorginho Frello or Jonathan Tah to Virgil van Dijk.

The study also puts forward footballers whose performances deviate most positively from those of teammates for each of the eight player profile classes built from a principal component analysis. The three youngest players in the top 10 of a class are Yvan Dibango (FC Isloch, 6th in the “Trippier” class), El Bilal Touré (Stade de Reims, 8th in the “Lukaku” class) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Rubin Kazan, 9th in the “Sterling” class”).

Clubs and agents interested in knowing more about the work of our research group, notably the freshly developed Toolkit, are kindly invited to contact us.

Squad management policies worldwide

Issue number 369 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 50 top divisions worldwide according to the number of players fielded in domestic league games during the last 365 days. For current big-5 league teams, the values stretch from an eye-staggering 55 players for Genoa down to only 27 for West Ham United.

The highest figure overall was recorded for Deportivo Pasto. The Colombians fielded up to 70 players in the 40 domestic league matches played during the last year. They outrank the Romanians of Dinamo Bucuresti and the Welsh of Cefn Druids (both 63 players). The four highest figures in the big-5 were all recorded for Italian Serie A teams: Genoa (55), Salernitana (53), Venezia (47) and Spezia (46).

The record figures for UEFA Champions League teams are much lower: 38 players for Paris St-Germain and 36 for Juventus. LOSC Lille and Manchester City are at the opposite end: 28 players for both. By league, the average values per club vary between 31 players in England and Moldavia, up to a maximum of 47 in Colombia.

More exclusive squad management policies data and many other key statistical indicators are available in the freshly conceived CIES Football Observatory Toolkit, a unique platform specifically devised for club directors and top management. Do not hesitate to contact us (football.observatory@unine.ch) to know more about this brand new tool.

Take part in the new CIES Football Observatory survey

Dear subscriber and friend of football,

The CIES Football Observatory academic team devised a brief and anonymous questionnaire aiming at understanding what people passionate about football consider as worrying in the beautiful game today. We would be grateful if you could take one minute to answer.

The main findings will be published online on our website and social media channels (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram). A report outlining the main results of a previous survey on professional football is available here.

Please click here to complete the questionnaire. Thank you!

Game Openness Index: Dutch Eredivisie at the top

Issue number 368 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post crunched the InStat data on goal scoring chances and effective playing time for 36 European leagues since 2018/19 (or 2018) to determine the level of “game openness”. The findings show that clubs in leagues from the North/West part of the continent tend to play more openly than those from the South/East.

With an average of 11.7 chances and 63’21” effective time per match, the Dutch Eredivisie recorded the highest Game Openness Index, ahead of the German Bundesliga and the Belgian Pro League. At the opposite end is the Spanish Segunda División with just 8.7 chances and 55’06” of effective time. The Greek Super League and the Romanian Liga I also are at the bottom three of the rankings.

On average, the effective playing time of matches in the 36 leagues survey is just above 59 minutes: from 63’21” in the Netherlands to 54’55” in the Czech Republic. Teams create on average 10.2 goal scoring chances per match: from 11.9 in the German Bundesliga to 8.7 in both the Spanish second division and the Greek top one.

 

Net transfer spending over last ten seasons

Issue number 367 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks current big-5 league clubs according to their net spending on transfer operations concluded over the last ten seasons. Manchester United tops the table with a negative balance of more than one billion euro, ahead of Manchester City and Paris St-Germain. Fourteen English clubs are in the top 20 of clubs with the most negative net transfer spending.

LOSC Lille clubs stands out at the opposite end with a positive transfer balance of €349 million over the last decade. The French side outranks league rivals Olympique Lyonnais and three Italian Serie A teams: Genoa, Udinese and Atalanta. The top three of current big-5 league clubs having generated the most incomes from transfers since 2012/13 are Chelsea, Monaco and Atlético Madrid. In total, 52 out 98 clubs have a positive net spending. This ratio is one (Brentford) out of 20 for Premier League teams.

Gathered with the greatest care through the cross-checking of all possible sources, whether official or unofficial, the data includes eventual add-on fees included in the deals, regardless of their actual payment. Within the limits of available information, incomes deriving from sell-on fees are also taken into account.

Next big-5 league stars

Issue number 366 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 players born in 2002 or after active in 31 European leagues outside of the big-5 with the highest InStat Index. The latter takes into consideration footballers’ pitch production depending on position played (centre back, winger, etc.) and the general level of the matches in which they participated.

The greatest score overall was recorded for AFC Ajax’s Ryan Gravenberch. Among midfielders, the Dutch talent ranks ahead Arsen Zakharyan (Dinamo Moscow) and Fábio Carvalho (Fulham). Running out contract, the latter is being courted by several major teams. The highest InStat Index for full backs was recorded for another AFC Ajax player who is attracting interest from clubs in the big-5: the 19-year-old Devyne Rensch.

The best score for other positions were measured for Oliver Dovin (Hammarby) among goalkeepers, Ilya Zabarnyi (Dynamo Kiev for centre backs and Jakub Kaminski (Lech Poznan) among forwards. Akinkunmi Amoo (Hammarby) and Sebastiano Esposito (Basel, on loan from Inter) complete the podium for strikers. The InStat Index for players from 36 European leagues is accessible for free in this exclusive tool. More information is available on demand.

First ever world demographic study released

For the first time, the CIES Football Observatory research team has compiled a study comparing from a demographic perspective the five major European leagues with ten additional competitions located in three other continents: America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, United States and Canada), Asia (South Korea, Japan, China), as well as Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). All the data is available for free in the 71st edition of the Monthly Report.

The study notably reveals that, during the second semester 2021, club-trained footballers played almost twice in non-European teams than in European ones: 19.4% of total domestic league minutes compared to 11.7%. However, for the MLS in the USA and Canada, players from clubs’ youth academies only played 9.2% of minutes. This is the second lowest figure after that recorded in the Italian Serie A (7.4%). The Argentinean Liga Profesional is at the opposite end with a record high of 29.4% of minutes played by club-trained footballers.

Boca Juniors stands out as the biggest training club with 78 footballers from its youth academy fielded by the 286 teams surveyed, 18 more than city rivals River Plate. The Colombians of Deportivo Cali (56 players) complete the podium of the most productive training teams, ahead of FC Barcelona (50), São Paulo (49) and Colo Colo (48). The 365th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 100 list of clubs having trained the most players fielded in the 15 leagues analysed.

Go to the Weekly Post

Go to the Monthly Report

Penalty stats across Europe: Manchester United stands out

The 364th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the rankings of European clubs having obtained penalties the most frequently since the start of the 2018/19 season as per InStat data. The sample is composed of teams always present in one of the 31 leagues surveyed during this period. Crvena Zvezda is at the top with a penalty every 239 minutes, while Manchester United heads the rankings in the big-5 (one every 299 minutes).

Paris St-Germain (305 minutes), Lazio and Inter (both 315’), Real Sociedad (374’), as well as Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig (both 397’ ) top the table in the other major championships. Real Madrid scored all the 24 penalties obtained. The lowest conversion rate among big-5 league teams was recorded for Montpellier (8 out of 14, 57%) and the lowest overall was measured for Stoke City (6 out of 15, 40%). In total, the teams surveyed scored 78.6% of the penalties awarded.

The Greek of Panathinaikos obtained the most penalties compared to the number of big chances created: one penalty every 15 goal scoring chances. Bristol City are at the opposite end with one penalty obtained every 91 big chances. This is partially due to different refereeing styles. The number of penalties awarded per match vary indeed between 0.23 in the English Championship up to almost the double in the Ukrainian top division (0.45).

Expected points: most over-and under-paid clubs

Issue number 363 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares points achieved by teams from 32 leagues of UEFA member associations with points expected according to a statistical model including ball possession and the number and distance of both shots taken and conceded (InStat data). With 2.71 points per match achieved and 1.75 expected, the Romanians of CFR Cluj have the most positive gap (+0.96). The Italian second division side Vicenza Virtus are at the opposite end (-0.81).

At big-5 league level, the greatest positive difference between points achieved and expected was recorded for Paris St-Germain (+0.77, 4th overall behind Cluj, Trabzonspor and FC Zurich), ahead of Milan AC (+0.71) and Eintracht Frankfurt (+0.50). At the other end of the spectrum are AS St-Etienne (-0.48), RB Leipzig (-0.43) and Greuther Fürth (-0.42). In the English Premier League, the gaps vary between +0.40 for Tottenham Hotspur and -0.32 for Newcastle United.

Bayern Munich is the most dominant teams from an expected point perspective (2.65 per match), followed by Crvena Zvezda, Ajax, Celtic, Rangers, Dynamo Kyiv, Porto, Manchester City, Young Boys and RB Salzburg. Conversely, Hrvatski dragovoljac, Sandhausen and Fortuna Sittard are the three most dominated teams among the 518 surveyed. Further data from our partners InStat data is accessible for free in the Performance Stats tool.

Most expensive players: Vinícius Júnior at the top

Issue number 362 of the Weekly Post presents the traditional bi-annual list of the 100 big-5 league players with the top estimated transfer value according to the CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The Real Madrid’s Brazilian rising star Vinícius Júnior (€166 million) outranks Phil Foden and Erling Haaland. These figures are irrespective of eventual buy-out clauses in players’ contract.

Per position, the top transfer values were calculated for Gianluigi Donnarumma among goalkeepers, Rúben Dias for centre backs, Alphonso Davies among full backs, Jude Bellingham for defensive midfielders, Florian Wirtz for attacking ones, as well as for Vinícius Júnior among forwards. Kevin de Bruyne has the greatest valuation among players aged 30 or over, while Kylian Mbappé tops the list for players running out of contract next June.

The values were calculated using the exclusive econometric approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team. A paper presenting the method has been recently published in the peer-review and open access journal Economies. It can be accessed here. The transfer value estimates for all big-5 league players are also available in free access here. Go to the Weekly Post to find out the top 100!

CIES Football Observatory’s big-5 leagues’ best XI

Issue number 361 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the best XI for each of the five major European leagues. Players were selected according to the CIES Performance Index powered by Opta data. Only footballers fielded for at least 900 domestic league minutes since the start of the 2021/22 season were included in the line-ups.

Ten of the eleven players in the English Premier League best XI are from Manchester City (Dias, Laporte, Cancelo, Rodri, Silva) and Liverpool FC (Alexander-Arnold, Henderson, Salah, Jota, Mané), the only exception being Chelsea FC’s goalkepeer Edouard Mendy. In Spain, we find six Real Madrid players (Courtois, Alaba, Casemiro, Modri?, Benzema and Vinícius), three from Sevilla (Koundé, Acuña and Jordán), and one from both Barcelona (Dest) and Betis (Fekir).

Only three clubs are represented in the German Bundesliga best XI: Bayern (7 players), Borussia Dortmund (3) and Bayer Leverkusen (Patrik Schick). Conversely, the French Ligue 1 best XI includes players from a record number of six clubs: Paris St-Germain (4 players), Olympique de Marseille (3), as well as Montpellier, Lens, Rennes and Brest. Finally, in Italy, Inter is the most represented club (4 players), ahead of Milan (3), Napoli (3) and Sassuolo (Domenico Berardi).

Player of the Year: Alaba heads the pack

Issue number 360 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 50 outfield players and the 50 goalkeepers worldwide who accumulated the greatest pitch experience since the start of the year. The rankings are elaborated on the basis of the exclusive capital experience method, which combines within a single metric the playing time of footballers and the sporting level of the teams for which they played or the competitions they participated in.

The Real Madrid and formerly Bayern Munich David Alaba heads the pack for outfield players ahead of two other centre backs: Rúben Dias (Manchester City and Portugal) and Milan Škriniar (Inter and Slovakia). Carlos Casemiro (Real Madrid and Brazil) and Karim Benzema (Real Madrid and France) top the table for midfielders and forwards. For goalkeepers, Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid and Belgium) outranks Jan Oblak (Atlético Madrid and Slovenia) and Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich and Germany).

Since 2018, the winners were Ivan Rakiti? and Alisson Becker (2018), Virgil van Dijk and Ederson Moraes (2019), as well as Andrew Robertson and Thibaut Courtois (2020). The final 2021 rankings will be published next January. The full experience capital methodology is presented in the seventieth edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report, which also presents current tables for players born in 2001 or after.

Go to the Weekly Post with the top 50s for goalkeepers and outfield players

Go to the Monthly Report with the methodology & young players rankings

Most expensive U23 big-5 league players: top 10s per position

Issue number 359 of the Weekly Post presents the ten U23 big-5 league players per position with the greatest estimated transfer value as per the exclusive CIES Football Observatory econometric model. Three U23 forwards could theoretically be transferred for up to €150M or more during January’s window: Erling Haaland (Borussia Dortmund and Norway), Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid and Brazil) and Phil Foden (Manchester City and England).

For other positions, the top estimated transfer values were recorded for Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris St-Germain and Italy) among goalkeepers, Eric García (Barcelona and Spain) for centre backs, Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich and Canada) for full backs, Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund and England) for defensive midfielders, as well as for Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen and Germany) among attacking midfielders.

Seventeen of the sixty U23 footballers listed play in the English Premier League, fourteen in the German Bundesliga, twelve in the Spanish Liga, ten in the French Ligue 1 and only seven in the Italian Serie A. Bayer Leverkusen is the most represented club with six players, followed by Barcelona (5) and Chelsea (4). The transfer value estimate intervals for all big-5 league players are available for free on the CIES Football Observatory website.

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Celtic FC are ball circulation champions

Issue number 358 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the InStat data on the number of passes attempted per match and their average length for teams from 40 leagues worldwide. The multiplication of these two variables shows the ball circulation distance for teams during possession. This distance varies between 12.8 kilometres per match for the Scots of Celtic FC and 6.9 km for the Mexicans of Atlético San Luis.

At big-5 league level, the teams moving most the ball are Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga (4th among the 654 teams analysed), Manchester City in the Premier League (5th), Sevilla in the Liga (6th), Monaco in the Ligue 1 (29th), as well as Fiorentina in the Serie A (51th). At the top of the rankings for the four non-European leagues surveyed are Flamengo in Brazil, Tigres UANL in Mexico, Atlético Nacional in Colombia and Unión La Calera in Chile.

The lowest values for the average length of passes attempted were recorded for two teams with a well-defined style of play: Roberto De Zerbi’s Shakhtar Donetsk and Mauricio Pochettino’s Paris St-Germain (15.7 meters in both cases). Three British teams are at the opposite end of the table: the Scots of Livingston FC (24.4 m) and Motherwell FC (23.2 m), as well as the English side Birmingham City (23.4 m).

Full data for free here!

Use of players: South America stands out

Issue number 357 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 84 top divisions worldwide according to the number of players fielded in domestic league matches during the last 365 days. The figures greatly vary from only 21 players at the Finnish side Inter Turku up to 61 for four clubs: Club Aurora (BOL), Colo Colo (CHI), EC Juventude (BRA) and Royal AM (RSA).

At the level of the five major European leagues, Genoa Calcio fielded the most players in domestic league matches since the 15th November 2020: 50 footballers. Two English clubs also engaged in European Cup competitions are at the opposite end of the table: Manchester City and West Ham United (25 players). Among the 14 big-5 league teams who fielded less than 30 players notably are Spanish champions Atlético Madrid (26 players) and European champions Chelsea FC (29).

Per league, the average number of players fielded per team stretches from 25.7 in the Faroe Islands up to 48.4 in Honduras. In the big-5, the extreme values were recorded in the English Premier League (31.0) and the Italian Serie A (37.7). Per Confederation, the figures vary from 35.3 at AFC level up to 43.5 in the CONMEBOLClick here to access the Post.

Sprinting distance: worldwide analysis

Issue number 356 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the data produced by our partners SkillCorner to unveil the average sprinting (>7.0 m/s or 25.2 km/h) distance per team in 27 leagues worldwide. The values stretch from 2.23km at Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United to only 1.04km at the Ukrainian side Metalist 1925 Kharkiv.

In only five teams among the 492 surveyed, players sprinted for more than 2 kilometres per match: the Swiss and Champions League side BSC Young Boys, the Dutch clubs SC Cambuur and Heracles Almelo, as well as the English Championship leaders AFC Bournemouth. Athletic Club (1.99km) tops the table in the Spanish Liga, Milan AC (1.91km) in the Italian Serie A, AS Monaco (1.89km) in the French Ligue 1 and Bayern Munich (1.85km) in the German Bundesliga.

The average sprinting distance per league vary from 1.70km in Swiss Super League and 1.26km in Scottish Premiership, with an overall average of 1.51km per team and match. The highest value at big-5 league level was recorded in the Spanish Liga (1.68km), while the lowest was measured in the German Bundesliga (1.47km). Follow us on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram for more exclusive football data analysis.

Record high for expatriate players in European football

After the drop in 2020 within the context of the pandemic, the part of players imported from abroad in the squads of teams from 31 European top divisions has started to rise again. This is one of the main findings from the annual census carried out since 2009 by the CIES Football Observatory research team, published in the 69th edition of the Monthly Report.

Expatriate footballers currently represent 41.9% of players in the 473 clubs surveyed. For the first time in history, players having grown up outside of the association of their employer club represent the majority of footballers within the five major European championships, with a maximum of 60.6% in the Italian Serie A and a minimum of 38.1% in the Spanish Liga. The greatest proportion of expatriates overall was recorded in Cyprus (69.9%).

Despite the growth of expatriates, the presence of club-trained players has also continued to increase after the pandemic. However, the percentage footballers having been in their employer club for at least three seasons between 15 and 21 years of age remains much lower than in 2009: 18.0% as opposed to 23.1%. The slight recent increase is chiefly explained by the rise observed in the least competitive leagues, where clubs suffered the most from the pandemic.

The proportion of players recruited during the year decreased for the fourth consecutive time, reflecting a less frenetic transfer market. The percentage of new signings among squad members went down from 44.9% in 2017 to 40.4% in 2021. The longest average stay in the first team squad of the employer club was recorded for CSKA Moscow (4.83 years), followed by Real Madrid, Athletic Club, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Manchester City.

The full report is available for free here. Further data for the current season taking into account the employment rate of each player is accessible in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas. Please write us for more information.

Most sustainable squads: Manchester City and Real Sociedad at the top

Issue number 355 of the Weekly Post ranks big-5 league clubs according to the CIES Football Observatory’s Sustainable Squad Management (SSM) Index. The latter highlights teams built to last by combining players’ age (the younger, the better), average stay in the first team squad (the longer, the better) and contract duration (the longer, the better). The employment rate of each is also considered as a weighting factor (more minutes, greater importance).

Manchester City, Real Sociedad and Liverpool currently hold the most sustainable squads. Guardiola’s team fields slightly younger line-ups than big-5 league rivals (27.06 years vs 27.13). Moreover, players fielded have been for much longer in the first team squad (3.32 years vs 2.34) and have much longer contracts (3.32 years vs 2.30). The Basques field much younger line-ups (25.62 years) and their values in terms of stability (3.04 years) and contract duration (2.49 years) also are above the average.

Spezia Calcio fielded so far the youngest line-ups (24.61 years), while the longest average stay for players fielded was recorded for Burnley (4.07 years). The longest “on the pitch” average contract remaining duration was measured for Arsenal (3.69 years). The Gunners also field by far the youngest line-ups in the English Premier League (24.86 years). However, their stability is for now well below the big- 5 league average (1.75 years only). More information on the SSM Index is available here.

Best dribblers in 33 leagues worldwide

Issue number 354 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the most active dribblers in 33 leagues worldwide according to the data of our partners InStat. Only players having attempted at least 40 dribbles in the current season (or in 2021 for the Brazilian Serie A) are included in the rankings. A dribble is defined as an active action performed by a player in order to get through an opponent.

Players are ranked according to a Dribble Index, i.e. the percentage of successful dribbles divided by the dribbling attempt frequency (minutes of play per dribble). Then highest score overall was recorded for Wolverhampton Spanish winger Adama Traoré (11.2), ahead of Universidad de Chile’s Argentinean Nahuel Luján (9.7) and CSKA Moskow’s Nigerian Chidera Ejuke (9.3).

At the top of the rankings in the other main major leagues are Erick de Arruda (Cearà SC) in Brazil, Rafael Leão (Milan AC) in Italy, Kamaldeen Sulemana (Stade Rennais) in France, Cody Gakpo (PSV Eindhoven) in the Netherlands, Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich) in Germany, Jordan Carrillo (Santos Laguna) in Mexico, Ivo Rodrigues (Famalicão FC) in Portugal and Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid) in Spain.

Ajax crowned best training club in Europe

AFC Ajax tops the CIES Football Observatory 2021 rankings of clubs having trained the most footballers playing in 31 top divisions of UEFA member countries. The Dutch team nurtured 81 players currently active in these championships, six more than Shakhtar Donetsk. Real Madrid and Barcelona co-head the table for players active in the five major European leagues (42). The top 100s are accessible for free here.

The CIES Football Observatory also developed the Training Index, an indicator weighting the number of players trained according to the sporting level of their employer clubs (through a coefficient based on domestic league and international club competitions results), their employment rate (over the last year), as well as their age (the younger, the better). Ajax also tops this table for players in the 31 European top divisions surveyed, ahead of Sporting Clube de Portugal and Real Madrid.

The highest Training Index when only considering big-5 league footballers was recorded for Real Madrid, ahead of FC Barcelona and Paris St-Germain. Ajax, Sporting Clube and Anderlecht are the best-ranked non big-5 league teams. As per UEFA definition, training clubs are those where footballers have played for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21. The season during which players celebrated their 15th and 21st birthday are also included.

World rankings of big scoring chances

Issue number 352 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 41 leagues worldwide according to the ratio between big chances created and conceded as per data from our partners InStat. A big chance defines a clear-cut chance to score a goal. Partizan Belgrade (5.0) recorded the best ratio out of the 680 clubs surveyed, ahead of AFC Ajax (4.3) and RB Salzburg (4.1).

Manchester City tops the table for the five major European leagues with a ratio of 3.3. Guardiola’s side creates on average 8.4 big chances per game, while only conceding 2.6 to their opponents. Bayern Munich (3.0) and Paris St-Germain (2.4) complete the podium for the big-5, while Everton is fourth (2.3). At the bottom of the rankings are Granada, Greuther Fürth, Norwich City and Southampton.

River Plate is the most dominant team in the Argentinean top division with a big chance ratio of 2.5, ahead of Club Estudiantes, Vélez Sarsfield and Boca Juniors. In Brazil, Flamengo (1.8) outranks CA Mineiro, Fortaleza EC and Ceará SC. Per league, the number of big chances per game vary between 13.6 in the Swiss Super League down to only 8.4 in the Romanian Liga I.

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