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Chance creation index: João Neves and Messi at the top

The 474th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 50 creators of chances in today world football, both in the Europe’s big-5 and in 60 other leagues around the globe, according to an exclusively developed index (see below). The top Portuguese talent João Neves (Paris St-Germain) outranks the iconic Lionel Messi (Inter Miami).

For the five major European leagues, João Neves is ahead of Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Romano Schmid (Werder Bremen) and Lamine Yamal (Barcelona). At the level of the other 60 leagues included in the analysis, two Spaniards rank after Lionel Messi: Iñigo Vicente (Racing de Santander) and Riqui Puig (Los Angeles Galaxy). The youngest players in the top 50s are Lamine Yamal and Kenan Yildiz for the big-5, as well as Kendry Páez (Independiente del Valle, on loan from Chelsea) for the other leagues.

The chance creation index is calculated on a scale of 100 by adding the frequency of passes leading to a goal or a clear chance, passes made to the assistman (second assist), as well as passes breaking the opposition’s defensive line received by a teammate (Wyscout). More explanations in this Monthly Report. The data refer to the current season’s domestic league matches. Only footballers who played at least 360’ have been included in the rankings.

>>> Full rankings

SkillCorner: Kimmich the best under high pressure

The 473rd CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents SkillCorner data on the midfielders with the best statistics for keeping the ball in high-pressure situations* in 18 European top divisions, the Brasileirão and Mexico’s Liga MX. Bayern Munich’s German full international Joshua Kimmich tops the list among midfielders who have been confronted with at least 60 high-pressure situations during the current season.

Torino’s Italian international Samuele Ricci and Tigres UANL’s Brazilian Rafael Carioca complete the top three. Three players who have not yet turned 21 feature in the top ten: two from the Danish side Nordsjælland (Ivory Coast’s Mario Dorgeles and Denmark’s Zidan Sertdemir), as well as Paris St-Germain’s French prodigy Warren Zaïre-Emery. The youngest player in the top 100 is Tijuana’s great Mexican talent Gilberto Mora (15.9 years, 43rd).

By team, the highest values were recorded for Manchester City (84.4%), Juventus (83.8%) and Shakhtar Donetsk (83.7%). These are all clubs that attack collectively, which makes the task of players carrying the ball easier, as analysed in greater detail in this Monthly Report. This is why the Post also presents the gap measured for each player in relation to his team’s average, with WSG Tirol’s Austrian Valentino Müller a surprising leader.

* A player is considered under pressure when he is in possession of the ball and at least one opponent player nearby him is trying to either recover the ball or limit his options. For each situation, SkillCorner determines the intensity of pressure by considering the speed of the players applying it, their distance to the player in possession and the angle of their movement. More information is available here.

>>> Top 100

Most youth-oriented clubs

The 472nd CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks clubs in 58 leagues around the world according to the percentage of minutes by footballers who did yet turn 21 in domestic league matches played over the last three years. Barcelona leads the European big-5 league table (22.6% of minutes by U21 players), while Ukrainian side Rukh Lviv are the most youth-oriented club in absolute terms (41.1%).

Denmark’s Nordsjælland (40.7% of minutes by U21s) and Uzbekistan’s Olympic (39.9%) complete the podium across the 58 leagues analysed, ahead of Slovakia’s MŠK Žilina and Austria’s RB Salzburg. At Europe’s big-5 league level, Barcelona outranks the French of Olympique Lyonnais (20,7%). Outside Europe, the Uruguayans of Defensor SC (23.9%) are ahead of Colombia’s Fortaleza CEIF (22.8%) and Envigado (22.5%).

The Post also presents the number of U21 footballers fielded, both in total or imported from abroad. From the latter perspective, at the top three positions are Switzerland’s FC Basel (24 foreign U21 players), Austria’s RB Salzburg (22) and Denmark’s Nordsjælland (21). Parma heads the rankings for the big-5 (16 players), while United Arab Emirates’ Al-Wasl FC tops the table among non-European clubs (13).

>>> Full data

>>> Demographic Atlas

Top 100 teenagers in world football

The 471st CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 100 of players worldwide who did not yet turn 20 in terms of their relative experience level*. Lamine Yamal tops the list with 2.75 times more experience than the average measured for players of the same age and position. The Spaniard outranks his Barcelona teammate Pau Cubarsí (x2.42) and Real Madrid’s Endrick Felipe (x2.41).

Paris St-Germain’s Warren Zaïre-Emery is fourth, ahead of Manchester United’s Kobbie Mainoo. The three youngest players in the top 100 are KRC Genk’s Belgian Konstantinos Karetsas (16.8 years; 71st), LOSC Lille’s Frenchman Ayyoub Bouaddi (16.9 years; 54th) and River Plate’s Argentinian Franco Mastantuono (17.1 years; 22nd).

Outside the European big-5, the top three are Ecuador’s Kendry Páez (Independiente del Valle, on loan from Chelsea), Brazil’s Estêvão Willian (Palmeiras, also on loan from Chelsea) and Turkey’s Yasin Özcan (Kasimpaşa). In total, 38 leagues are represented in the top 100, with a maximum of 13 players for the English Premier League, followed by 10 for the French Ligue 1.

* The level of experience is calculated on the basis of last year’s official game minutes, weighted by the sporting level of matches played.

>>> Top 100

>>> The CIES Football Observatory will be present at World Football Summit (WFS) Europe (booth No. 5), which is taking place in Sevilla between Wednesday 18th September and Thursday 19th September 2024. Visit us or schedule a meeting

Transfer market report: exclusive analysis

The 97th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the financial flows of transfer operations occurred over the last decade. Despite a 10% drop compared to the record year of 2023, the amount of transfer fees invested by clubs worldwide remained at a very high level in 2024: €10.96 billion including add-ons. This is the second highest figure ever recorded.

With about €23 billion of transfer fees committed over the last decade, the English Premier League stands out clearly (28% of the total), followed by the Italian Serie A (€10.8 billion). The Premier League is also the competition with the most negative net spending since 2015 (-€11.5 billion), followed by the Saudi Pro League (-€1.8 billion). In contrast, the Portuguese Primeira Liga (+€2.3 billion) is ahead of the English Championship, the Dutch Eredivisie and the Brazilian Serie A.

In terms of individual clubs, Chelsea stands out with a record €2.78 billion invested in transfer fees over the last decade. This is 42% more than the next two biggest spenders: Manchester City and Manchester United. The latter team has the most negative net transfer balance over the last decade (-€1.30 billion) ahead of Chelsea and Paris St-Germain. Conversely, Portugal’s SL Benfica has the most positive net spending (+€816 million), well ahead of Ajax and RB Salzburg.

>>> Full report

>>> Updated Weekly Post on last summer window’s analysis per league

Costliest squads: Chelsea breaks all records

The 470th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 teams in the world having committed the most money in transfer fees to recruit their current squad members (both permanently or on loan). Chelsea tops the list with €1.28 billion including add-ons (regardless of their actual payment) and €1.15 billion without them. These are the highest values ever recorded (see last year’s rankings).

Manchester City and Manchester United complete the podium, with amounts including add-ons also in excess of €1 billion. Sixth with €772 million, Paris St-Germain is the only non-English team in the top seven. The French outfit ranks just behind Arsenal (€798 m) and Tottenham (€787m), while outranking Liverpool (€735m). Real Madrid (€720m) and Juventus (€626m) are the only other non-Premier League clubs in the top 10.

Al-Hilal (€485m, 13th) are first among non-big 5 league teams, ahead of three other Saudi Arabia’s clubs: Al-Nassr (€270m), Al-Ittihad (€226m) and Al-Ahli (€224m). Flamengo (€208m) clearly outranks Botafogo (€85m) and Palmeiras (€77m) for South America. In total, 19 countries are represented in the top 100, with a maximum of 24 clubs for England (the 20 Premier League sides and four teams from the Championship).

>>> Full data

Transfer spending: Premier League top, but down

The 469th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares the transfer fees invested by clubs worldwide (including add-ons) between the summers 2023 and 2024. In both cases, the period taken into account runs from 1 June to the Monday of the last week of the transfer window (28 August in 2023 and 26 August in 2024).

Overall, the expenditure fell by 13%, from €8.18 billion to €7.08 billion. English Premier League clubs were once again the biggest spenders (€2.19 billion), although their investments were also down (-€270 million, -11%). The Saudi Pro League saw the biggest drop in both absolute (-€657 million) and relative terms (-75%).

In the other leagues of the European big-5, a decline was recorded so far in the German Bundesliga (-€160 million, -20%), while investment rose in Italy’s Serie A (+€130 million, +17%), with stable figures for both Spanish Liga and France’s Ligue 1. The biggest relative increase among the 20 most active leagues was in the Brasileirão (+87 million, +136%), mainly due to the arrival of foreign capital in club ownerships.

>>> Full data

CIES Sports Intelligence groundbreaking report

Following the three CIES Football Observatory Summer Series reports on global football match calendar and player workload, our colleagues of the CIES Sports Intelligence have elaborated a very comprehensive (>50 pages) and highly informing study that we are happy to help disseminating.

CIES Sports Intelligence media release

‘Through a series of cases studies and analyses, the CIES Sports Intelligence report on the elite men’s football match calendar and player workload provides an empirical outlook on both current and historical trends related to these topics. Notwithstanding the importance of the international match calendar’s structure, the study underlines the prominent role of domestic bodies (i.e. leagues or national associations) as competition organisers, highlighting some of the differences that exist at individual country level.

Moreover, the report illustrates that, somewhat contrary to the current narrative within the football ecosystem, there is no consistent evidence of an increase in elite player workload since the turn of the century. In fact, the contrary appears to exist according to the research conducted by CIES Sports Intelligence. Highlights from the report include:

•⁠ Players – overall workload: With a total of 6,258 minutes (the equivalent of nearly 70 full matches) played between club and national team in 2012/2013, David Luiz holds the single season record across all players that competed in the top eight European divisions over the past 25 years. The two next highest values date back even further - to Frank Lampard and Roberto Carlos campaigns in 2006/2007 and 1999/2000 respectively. Bruno Fernandes (6th) is the only player in the top ten related to a season that does not precede 2013 at least. When extending the analysis to the top 50 players by total number of minutes per season, the overall trend has been on a decreasing trajectory for the past three seasons when compared to any three-year cycle since 1999/2000.

•⁠ Competition – calendar occupation: Domestic competitions have accounted for 94,2% of the distribution of football matches between the seasons 2012/13 and 2023/24.

•⁠ ⁠Competitions and clubs – Back-to-back matches: Taking a sample size from the top-five ranked European domestic leagues, during the 2023/2024 season, England was home to the highest number of domestic back-to-back matches (event of a club playing two domestic games within 72 hours from one another) involving top division clubs (with 87 instances). English Premier League clubs topped the ranking also in terms of the shortest average time (67.3 hours) between back-to-back matches.

•⁠ Clubs – International tours: After considering the total calendar days with no competitive football being played, Manchester United (52 friendlies), Manchester City (45 friendlies) and Real Madrid (45 friendlies) are the clubs that played the highest number of friendly matches outside of Europe between July 2010 and May 2024. League-wide, the English Premier League set a new record in 2023/2024 with an aggregate total of 42 ‘non-European’ friendlies played (and a total 308,212 kilometers travelled in the process – the third highest total since 2001/2002).

•⁠ Players – substitute data: With data taken from four European leagues (England, Germany, Italy and Spain), substitutes have been on the pitch for an aggregate average of 86,775 additional minutes per season since the permanent introduction of the five changes. This value represents a 51.1% increase compared to the total recorded during the last season with only three substitutions allowed.’

>>> Full report

Report on the most in-demand players

The third report of the CIES Football Observatory Summer Series on Match Calendar and Player Workload focuses on the most in-demand footballers. It notably reveals that, over the last twelve years, more than three quarters of minutes played by most fielded footballers per season worldwide (>4,500 minutes) were played in national club competitions (76.3%).

This finding confirms for the most in-demand footballers the conclusion already drawn in the first report at the level of all players: national leagues, more than any other organiser, have a dominant role in structuring the football match calendar. This situation has changed little over time (see also the second report on clubs) and the changes made to the format of certain competitions will have only a minor impact.

Projections for 2024-2028 show indeed that, given recent trends in squad size, turnover and the use of five substitutions, the proportion of active footballers in the 40 leagues studied who will play more than 4,500 official game minutes per season (50 full matches) will be slightly lower than that observed between 2020 and 2024: 1.02% compared with 1.07%.

>>> Third report on most in-demand players

>>> Second report on clubs

>>> First report on organisers

Clubs are not playing more matches per season

The second report of the CIES Football Observatory Summer Series on Match Calendar and Player Workload analyses the trends in the number of official games played by clubs in 40 of the top leagues worldwide. The study notably reveals that the teams are not playing more matches per season, countering the popular belief of an ever more crowded match calendar.

Between 2012 and 2024, the average number of fixtures per club and season is stable at just over 40. Only about 5% of clubs play 60 or more games per season (not including friendlies). Looking further back to the 2000/01 season, the same finding holds true for the big-5 leagues’ representatives in the UEFA Champions League, with even a decrease in the overall number of official matches played during the last three seasons.

No significant change was observed in the proportion of clubs playing 60 or more matches neither. The values measured at global level for the last two seasons (3.7% for 2022/23 and 4.0% for 2023/24) are here too lower than the average recorded over the entire period. The study also project figures for the next four year-cycle, with national leagues continuing to play a dominant role in the organisation of matches.

>>> Full study

Match Calendar and Player Workload: first report

This first report of the CIES Football Observatory Summer Series on Match Calendar and Player Workload in men’s football analyses trends in the number of games and minutes per season played over the last twelve years by footballers from 40 of the top leagues worldwide, as well as their breakdown according to organisers and projections for the 2024-28 period.

National leagues have by far the greatest weight on the organisation of men’s world football. Between 2012 and 2024, they accounted for 82.2% of all matches played by footballers from the 40 leagues surveyed. The second largest organiser, national associations, accounted for 10.2% of matches, while confederations come third with 6.7%, ahead of FIFA with 0.9%.

The main change over the last twelve seasons is the relative strengthening of the confederations, mainly to the detriment of associations. However, no weakening of the national leagues’ clear-cut leadership in the men’s football match calendar was observed. The latter accounted for more than 80% of the minutes played by footballers in the 40 leagues studied during all the seasons surveyed.

According to the projections elaborated by taking new competition formats into account, footballers from the leagues investigated will on average play the same number of minutes and 1.4% more matches in all competitions combined (not including club friendlies) over the next four years compared to the last four. The non-increase in expected minutes is driven by factors such as the five substitutions rule and trends in squad sizes.

>>> Access the full report for free

Men’s Football Calendar

The CIES Football Observatory is breaking new ground with four summer reports on the highly topical issue of the football calendar congestion and players workload. The studies will be published on a weekly basis from next week, and will focus on three key areas and actors within the global football calendar ecosystem.

  • Week 1 (ending 12 July) – Competitions
  • Week 2 (ending 19 July) – Clubs
  • Week 3 (ending 26 July) – Players
  • Week 4 (ending 2 August) – Final report and further insights

The reports will individually and together help to gain a better understanding of the trends observed over the last twelve years in terms of the number and frequency of matches played worldwide, both in absolute terms and according to the organisers (leagues, associations, confederations, FIFA, etc.), and also in terms of matches and minutes players appear throughout their seasons. They will also provide an analysis of the impact of planned changes to the format of certain competitions (continental club competitions, FIFA Club World Cup, etc.), amongst other datapoints and insights.

Other new features are already available on the CIES Football Observatory website, including improved versions of the Transfer Value Tool and the Demographic Atlas, not to mention the other tools exclusively developed, such as the Migration Atlas and the Performance Stats Tool.

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