Issue number 389 of the Weekly Post assesses paying fee transfer operations carried out by current big-5 league clubs since July 2012. The study compares players’ values prior to transfer, estimated according to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s statistical model, and fees actually paid. This allows us to highlight clubs having most driven inflation up, with Manchester United heading the rankings.

Manchester United’s total investment for the 33 fee paying transfers assessed in the study was €238M greater than the estimated value of players concerned: €1.59 vs €1.36 billion (+18%). Juventus (€233 M, +29%) and Paris St-Germain (€162M, +19%) complete the overspending table’s podium. Only three Premier League teams figure among the 36 clubs that invested less money than expected to conclude the fee-paying deals assessed. This confirms their key role in driving up inflation on the transfer market.

Deals concluded by triggering buy-out or option-to-buy clauses were not included in the sample analysed. Only 86 current big-5 league clubs for which we were able to assess at least ten fee-paying transfers figure in the rankings. More information about the CIES Football Observatory’s scientific method to assess players’ transfer values and fees is available in this open access peer review paper.

Issue number 388 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 Impact Score rates among footballers who did not yet celebrate their 25th birthday for each of the fifteen technical profiles identified by the CIES Football Observatory’s role-based approach. The greatest values overall (100/100) were recorded for Alessandro Bastoni (blocker playmaker), Éder Militão (pure blocker), Jules Koundé (air blocker filter man) and Vinícius Júnior (infiltrator creator).

The Impact Score is an exclusive CIES Football Observatory’s metrics developed to assess players’ sporting achievement and potential. It is calculated by taking into consideration the average match level in which players participated according to the experience capital method, official game minutes played over the last 365 days, as well as pitch performance compared to both teammates, opponents and same profile’s players.

The role-based approach used to determine technical profiles clusters players according to the level of their involvement in eight areas of the game with respect to teammates: air defence, ground defence, recovery, distribution, take on, chance creation, air attack and shooting.

An exclusive tool, powered by InStat data, displaying big-5 league players’ technical profile, performance level, age, contractual status, estimated transfer value and suitable potential replacements among footballers from 59 leagues worldwide is accessible for free here. A premium version is available for professionals. Do not hesitate to contact us for more information and insights.

Issue number 387 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks big-5 league teams according to transfer fees invested to sign their current squad members. Manchester City heads the rankings closely followed by local rivals Manchester United. Chelsea completes an all-English podium, while Paris St-Germain tops the table for non-Premier League teams.

The Manchester teams are the only clubs worldwide with a transfer fee spending to assemble the squad greater than one billion euro (including add-ons irrespective of their effective payment). Real Madrid (€721M) has the costliest squad in the Spanish Liga, Bayern Munich (€499M) in the German Bundesliga and Juventus (€473M) in the Italian Serie A. The data for 2020/21 is available here.

The freshly released CIES Football Observatory September’s Monthly Report presents further financial analysis of big-5 league transfers. It notably shows that Manchester United tops the table for the most negative net transfer spending over the last decade (-€1.27 billion), ahead of Manchester City (€902M) and Paris St-Germain (€868M).

During the last transfer window, Premier League teams invested an all-time high of €2.6 billion (including add-ons) to sign new players. Overall, the big-5 league clubs’ expenditure reached €5.2 billion for the summer and €6.2 bn for the whole 2022 calendar year. This is the second highest figure ever observed, an increase of 61% compared to 2021 and just 7% below the record high of 2019. More exclusive transfer fee data is available for free in the freshly published 77th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.

An all-time high was also recorded with regard to the share of transfer fees paid by English Premier League teams out of total big-5 league clubs’ investments. From an average of 38.7% during the ten-year period studied, this percentage reached a peak of 48.5% in 2022. In ten years, the English Premier League cumulated a transfer deficit of -€9.5 billion, followed by the Italian Serie A with “just” -€1.4 bn. The French Ligue 1 is at the opposite end (+€350M).

Three French clubs, LOSC Lille (+€379M), Olympique Lyonnais (+€282M) and Monaco (+€215M), are at the top of the rankings for current big-5 league teams with the most positive net transfer spending over the past decade. Manchester United is at the opposite end (-€1.27 billion), followed by Manchester City (-€902M) and Paris St-Germain (-€868M). Manchester City (€279M) heads the table for transfer fees received from big-5 league clubs in 2022, ahead of AFC Ajax (€226M).

All CIES Football Observatory’s reports available for free here!

Issue number 386 of the Weekly Post crunched InStat technical performance data within the framework of the freshly conceived CIES Football Observatory’s Impact Score (IS) method to unveil 250 hot prospects born in 2000 or after in 59 leagues worldwide. Vinícius Júnior (2000, IS of 100), Bukayo Saka (2001, IS 92), Joško Gvardiol (2002, IS 94), Jude Bellingham (2003, IS 91) and Pablo Gavi (2004 or younger, IS 93) top the rankings per year of birth.

Sandro Tonali and Vitinha Ferreira complete the podium for players born in 2000, such as Jurriën Timber and Gonçalo Inácio for 2001-born footballers. The second and third-ranked players for the other years of birth are Piero Hincapié and Eduardo Camavinga (2002), Jamal Musiala and Harvey Elliott (2003), as well as Gabriel Slonina and Daniil Khudyakov (2004 or younger). The Impact Score values for footballers from the 59 leagues selected are available for free in this exclusive tool.

The Impact Score is calculated from the average match level in which players participated according to the experience capital method, their amount of official game minutes played over the last 365 days and their pitch performance compared to both teammates and opponents, as well as with respect to players with the same technical profile as per the role-based approach also freshly developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team.

The CIES Football Observatory launches its 2022/23 season with the final tables’ forecasting for 23 top divisions of UEFA member associations. The predictions were carried out from a statistical model including teams’ performances over the two previous seasons, current players’ experience capital and clubs’ transfer market expenditure. The full tables are available for free in the 385th Weekly Post.

Inter would be the only new champion in the five major European leagues, where hierarchies are well established. Sporting CP would be crowned in Portugal instead of Porto, while Fenerbahçe would overtake Trabzonspor in Turkey. Slavia Praha in the Czech Republic, Midtjylland in Denmark, Rangers in Scotland, as well as Young Boys in Switzerland are also supposed to beat previous champions.

With respect to relegation fight in the five major European leagues, the following teams already present in the top division are in great danger: Southampton in the Premier League; Mallorca and Cádiz in the Liga; Clermont Foot, Troyes and Angers in the Ligue 1; Hertha BSC and Bochum in the Bundesliga; as well as Salernitana in the Serie A. An update will be available on demand after the end of the transfer window.

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The June 2022 Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the evolution in the squad make up of clubs from ten women’s leagues worldwide since 2017. The study notably shows that the strong increase in the percentage of minutes played by expatriate footballers observed between 2017 and 2021 did not continue in the last year.

As for imported players, after four consecutive years of growth, the average age of line-ups fielded by teams did not increase during last year. Since 2017, however, a growth was recorded in eight of the ten leagues studied, with a notable rise in the English Women’s Super League (+2.3 years of age). By league, in 2022, the values vary between 22.1 years of age in the Netherlands and 27.1 in the United States.

The United States also stand out as the main exporting country. With 82 footballers abroad, US citizens outrank the Swedes (46 expatriates) and the Canadians (42). Players from the United States are present in all the leagues studied, with a maximum of 22 representatives in the Swedish Damallsvenskan. In total, 73 associations have at least one expatriate in one of the ten leagues analysed.

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The last CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post before the summer break presents the top 100 estimated transfer values for players worldwide. Thanks to his fresh three-year contract extension with Paris St-Germain, Kylian Mbappé (€206) is back at the top of the list. The French world champion outranks the previous leader and recent Champions League winner Vinícius Júnior (€185M), as well as the new Manchester City striker Erling Haaland (€153M).

The Portuguese Rúben Dias has the greatest estimated transfer value for a centre back: €110M. Gianluigi Donnarumma (€74M) tops the table for goalkeepers, Trent Alexander-Arnold (€87M) for full backs and Pedri González (€135M) for midfielders. Benfica’s striker Darwin Núñez (47th, €70M) has the highest valuation for non-big-5 league players. The 30-year-old Kevin de Bruyne (76th, €57) is the oldest player in the top 100, while 17-year-old Pablo Gavi (73rd, €58M) is the youngest one.

English Premier League clubs dominate the ranking with 41 representatives in the top 100. Transfer value estimate intervals for all big-5 league footballers are available for free here. More information on the CIES Football Observatory approach to assess the transfer value of professional football players on a scientific basis is available in this freshly published peer-reviewed paper. Please contact us to know more about pour services.

TOP 100

Issue number 383 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the 100 footballers who have not yet celebrated their 20th birthday who gained the most playing experience during the first semester of the year. Borussia Dortmund’s and England’s midfielder Jude Bellingham heads the rankings ahead of the FC Barcelona’s and Spain’s duo Pablo Gavi and Pedri González.

Fulham’s FC Fábio Carvalho (7th) is the top ranked player outside of the big-5, ahead of Sparta Prague’s Adam Hložek and Martin Vitík. The podium of U20 footballers playing outside of Europe who gained the most experience since the start of the year is composed of Marcos Leonardo (Santos FC), Juan David Mosquera (Independiente Medellín) and Santiago Simón (River Plate).

The rankings were established according to the experience capital method, which takes into consideration minutes played in official games and their sporting level. This method allows us to combine into a single metrics players’ employment and the level of games in which they participated. More information is available in this Report and on demand.

With the 2021/22 seasons coming to an end, this CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the Best XI for 32 European leagues using its exclusive Impact Score approach combining team results with player employment and technical performance as per InStat data. Tactical formations were chosen by first including top-ranked players in the most frequent position played and adding then footballers for complementary positions.

Players from 21 clubs were selected in the Best XIs for the big-5: Liverpool (6), Manchester City (4) and Tottenham (Harry Kane) in England; Real Madrid (6), Sevilla (2), Barcelona (2) and Betis (Nabil Fekir) in Spain; Milan (4), Inter (3), Juventus (2), Napoli (Amir Rrahmani) and Fiorentina (Nicolás González) in Italy; Bayern Munich (9), Borussia Dortmund (Jude Bellingham) and Bochum (Manuel Riemann) in Germany; Paris St-Germain (5), Marseille (2), Rennes (Benjamin Bourigeaud), Monaco (Aurélien Tchouaméni), Strasbourg (Ludovic Ajorque) and Nice (Walter Benítez) in France.

The ten youngest players in the Best XIs are Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund), Arsen Zakharyan (Dinamo Moskow), Ilya Zabarnyi (Dynamo Kiev), Adam Hlozek (Sparta Prague), Nuno Mendes (PSG), Jakub Kaminski (Lech Poznan), Ryan Gravenberch (Ajax), Karim Adeyemi (RB Salzburg), Liel Abada (Celtic) and Jurriën Timber (Ajax). The Post also includes the technical profile of players selected according to fifteen categories as explained in this Report.

The 381st CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the passing game of goalkeepers from 36 leagues worldwide as per data from InStat. The percentage of long forward passes out of total passes stretches from just 8.2% for Paris St-Germain goalie Keylor Navas up to 83.6% for Paksi FC’s Gergö Rácz. Only goalkeepers who played at least 1’000 domestic league minutes (injury time included) were taken into consideration.

The record percentage of long forward passes (at least 40 meters with a span angle of 90°) at big-5 league level was recorded for Burnley FC’s Nick Pope (73.1%) ahead of CA Osasuna’s Sergio Herrera (72.2%). In absolute terms, the greatest value was recorded for Bochum’s Manuel Riemann (27.5 per match on average). Derby County’s Ryan Allsop made the most passes per game (50.0), ahead of Hamburger SV Daniel Heuer Fernandes (48.4).

Goalkeepers passing data heavily reflects the style of play of teams. On a league level, the percentage of goalkeepers’ long forward passes stretches from only 35.7% in the Turkish Süper Lig up to 58.4% in the Scottish Premiership. High figures were also recorded in the English Championship (49.0%) and the Argentinean Liga Profesional (47.5%). More technical data from InStat is exclusively available in the CIES Football Observatory Performance Stats tool.