InStat Index: best players across Europe
The leading sports data company InStat has developed an exclusive Index to assess the performance of football players on an objective basis. Issue number 277 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 10 rankings for 35 European competitions. The highest InStat Index overall was recorded for the recent Ballon d’Or winner Lionel Messi: 401.
Per position, the top three ranked footballers are Frederik Rönnow, Wojciech Szczesny and Marwin Hitz among goalkeepers, Virgil van Dijk, Joël Veltman and Willy Boly among centre backs, Andrew Robertson, Ricardo Pereira and Ben Chilwell among full backs, Kevin de Bruyne, Papu Gómez and Marco Verratti among midfielders, as well as Lionel Messi, Hakim Ziyech and Kylian Mbappé among forwards.
The values for all players from the 35 European leagues covered are available in the exclusive InStat Index tool on the CIES Football Observatory website. This unique tool allows users to filter footballers per league, position and age. It is thus possible to focus on specific players’ profiles, as extensively done by club representatives from a scouting perspective.
Players of the decade: Messi leads the table
No outfield footballer played a higher percentage of domestic league minutes of a big-5 league team in the 2010s as Lionel Messi. The Argentinean was fielded for 83.4% of total minutes played by Barcelona in the Liga. This is the second value overall behind that measured for Steve Mandanda (84.2% of Olympique Marseille minutes). The 276th issue of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the most fielded footballer for each of the 42 clubs always present in the big-5 in the 2010s.
The 50th Monthly Report analyses the make-up of these teams over the course of the decade that is about to end. The unique case of Athletic Club Bilbao is reflected in almost all the indicators analysed. FC Barcelona’s case shows that territorial anchoring can be a plus even for a global club. Their success is for the most part linked to the exceptional qualities of home-grown players such as Lionel Messi, Xavi, Andrés Iniesta, Gerard Piqué or Sergio Busquets.
Although money is more than ever a key factor, other elements come into play. Squad stability stemming from good strategic planning, as well as the ability of clubs to get the best out of the talents trained in their youth academies and to stimulate a strong sense of belonging to all parties concerned (players, staff, supporters, etc.), remain crucial success criteria even in the today’s hyper-commercial and globalised environment.
Player export: Brazilians and French at the top
Issue number 275 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post maps the origin of expatriate players in 31 European top divisions. With 466 representatives, Brazilians are the most numerous (10.3% of the total number of expatriates), followed by the French (350 players). However, the latter are the most present in the big-5 European leagues: 115 French players abroad compared to 104 Brazilians.
Footballers who grew up in France represent the largest contingent of expatriates in the Premier League (41 players, 15.7% of total playing time of expats), the Bundesliga (28, 8.0%) and the Liga (25, 13.6%). Brazilians are the most present in the Serie A (33 players, 7.3% of minutes played by all expatriates) and the Ligue 1 (25, 5.4%). Brazil is the most represented origin also in Portugal, Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Finland. They are present in all of the countries covered except Scotland.
With 224 representatives in the 31 European top divisions and 67 expatriates in the five major championships, Spain is the third main exporting country. For a more global vision of player international mobility, the Atlas of Migration of the CIES Football Observatory presents additional data on the presence and distribution of expatriates in 147 leagues from 98 countries worldwide.
Territorial domination: the best at the top, but not always first
Dominating opponents does not always lead to success. However, the InStat data analysed in the 274th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post shows that most of the best performing teams are able to maximise their passes in the opponent’s third of the pitch, while minimising the opponent’s passes in their own third. The best ratio overall in the 35 European leagues surveyed was measured for Manchester City.
Guardiola’s team made on average 210 passes per match in the opponent’s third, versus only 59 by the opponents in their own third (ratio of 3.55). This ratio is only 1.9 for Premier League leaders Liverpool (180 passes versus 85). The greatest number of passes in the opponent’s third part of the field was recorded for AFC Ajax (220 per match). The Dutch side has the second best ratio (3.43), ahead of Steven Gerrard’s Rangers Glasgow (3.03).
The worst ratio overall was observed for another Scottish side: Hamilton Academical (0.39). A very negative ratio was also recorded for Newcastle United (0.41). Fulham (1.78) has the most positive ratio in the Championship ahead of Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United (1.58). Nottingham Forest is at the opposite end of the table (0.71). More data is available in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory & InStat Performance Atlas.
Coutinho leads the table for most expensive players on loan
Issue number 273 of Weekly Post presents the top 50 transfer values for players currently on loan in big-5 league teams. At the head of the table is Philippe Coutinho. However, the price for the Brazilian as estimated by the CIES Football Observatory algorithm (€96.5M) is lower than the option to buy negotiated between Bayern and Barcelona (€120M).
Four other players on loan have an estimated value greater than €50M: Dani Ceballos, Martin Ödegaard, Harry Wilson and Mauro Icardi. While there is in principle no option to buy for the three former players, Paris St-Germain can sign Mauro Icardi for €70M. This is currently a relatively high fee, but it could be no more the case if the Argentinean goes on playing and scoring as he managed to do in October.
With regard to Stefano Sensi and Duván Zapata, the levels of their options to buy are already significantly lower than the estimated values. Inter and Atalanta will probably not hesitate to exercise them. More information on the exclusive CIES Football Observatory approach to assess on a scientific basis the transfer value of professional footballers is available here.
Record high for expatriates, end of club-trained players decline?
The 49th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the demographic characteristics of players from 31 European top division clubs. It notably reveals that the trend towards less stability and a greater international mobility has declined over the past year. While the level of expatriates has reached a new record (41.8%), the increase was less marked than in previous years: +0.2% as opposed to an average of +1.2% between 2014 and 2018.
For the first time since the first census in 2009, the percentage of club-trained players has grown. However, this increase was very limited (+0.2%). It is thus difficult to claim that the tendency towards fewer club-trained footballers has reversed. In the same vein, the halt in the decrease in the average length of stay of players in their club of employment does not necessarily imply a return towards more stability.
From next year onwards, it will be very interesting to monitor if the increasing economic disparities between teams from different countries will push a greater number of clubs with limited means to concentrate on the promotion of locally trained talents. This holds particularly true in Eastern Europe (Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, etc.) and Southern Europe (Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, etc.), where transfer market activity is particularly prevalent. Access the study!
Effective playing time: records per club and league
The effective playing time of a football match greatly varies according to league and club. According to the exclusive InStat data on 35 European competitions, during current season, the highest percentage of effective playing time was measured in the Swedish top division (on average 59.7% of minutes per match). At the opposite is the Czech league (50.2%). The data at both league and club level are available in the 272th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
The findings reveal great discrepancies per continental area. The higher values recorded in Northern and Western Europe reflect more open styles of play and a greater player discipline. Among the five major European championships, the German Bundesliga (57.1%) has the highest effective playing time, while the Spanish Liga has the lowest (53.3%).
At club level, the record percentage of effective playing time was measured for the matches of the Swedish side GIF Sundvall (63.2%). AZ Alkmaar (62,9%) and Helsingborgs (62,8%) also are in the top three. At the other extreme are three Spanish teams: Alcorcón (45,8%), Getafe (45,9%) and Rayo Vallecano (46,2%). The highest values for big-5 league clubs were recorded for Bayern Munich (62.0%), Olympique Lyonnais (61.5%) and Paris St-Germain (60.7%).
Best training clubs: exclusive 2019 rankings
Which teams train the most professional footballers? As every year, the CIES Football Observatory has established the rankings of the best training clubs for players active in the big-5, as well as for footballers in 31 European top divisions. Real Madrid and Partizan Belgrade head the tables. The top 60s are available in issue number 271 of the Weekly Post.
For big-5 league players, Real Madrid (39 footballers trained, +3 compared to last year) outranks Barcelona (34, same number) and Olympique Lyonnais (30, -5). At the level of the 31 top divisions, Partizan Belgrade (75 players trained, +6 with respect to last year) outranks AFC Ajax (72, -5) and Sporting Clube Portugal (63, +5). The top 50s rankings for 2018 are available here.
Following UEFA definition, training clubs are teams where footballers played for at least three seasons between the ages of 15 and 21. The percentage of minutes played by club-trained footballers in all of the teams from the 31 competitions studied is available in the CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas. In addition, more exclusive data is regularly published through Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
Sancho and Rodrygo most experienced youngsters
The CIES Football Observatory research team has developed an exclusive approach to measure the experience capital of footballers according to their playing time and the level of matches played. Issue number 270 of the Weekly Post presents the 50 highest figures worldwide for players born in 2000, as well as the top 50 for footballers born in or after 2001.
For players born in 2000, the Englishman Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund) outranks his countryman Ryan Sessegnon (Tottenham) and the Dutchman Kik Pierie (AFC Ajax). The second highest figure outside of the big-5 European leagues was measured for the Danish Mikkel Damsgaard (Nordsjaelland), while that for footballers playing outside of Europe was recorded for the Venezuelan Cristian Casséres (New York Red Bulls).
Rodrygo Goes (Real Madrid) heads the table for players born in or after 2001. The Brazilian prodigy ranks in the top 10 also by considering footballers born in 2000: 8th. The Paraguayan Fernando Cardozo (Boavista) is the second most experienced U19 player, while at third position is a 2002-born footballer: Adam Hložek (Sparta Praha). The youngest player in the lists is the 16-year-old midfielder Daniel Leyva (Seattle Sounders & Tacoma Defiance).
Monthly Report shows increase of loans in the big-5
The 48th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the evolution of the number and characteristics of footballers having played on loan for teams of the five major European championships during the last decade. It shows that clubs from these leagues take more and more players on loan: from 2.62 per club and season between 2009 and 2014, up to 3.09 between 2014 and 2019 (+18%). In 2018/2019, footballers on loan played a record number of minutes in the big-5: 11.5%.
This evolution is notably explained by the tendency of wealthy teams (Manchester City, Chelsea, Juventus, etc.) to put under contract an increasing number of footballers with a sufficient sporting level to play in the major European leagues. This puts other clubs in a greater state of dependency when making up their squads, thus increasing their likelihood to take players on loan.
The study also shows that loans constitute in most of the cases a step towards a definitive departure. Indeed, only 29.6% of footballers lent to big-5 league clubs between 2009/10 and 2018/19 return to their owner team at the end of the loan period. In 27% of the occurrences, they were loaned again, while in the remaining 43.4% of cases they were transferred on a permanent basis to another team.
Regulation makes sense in avoiding the misuse of loan strategies orientated not towards a legitimate sporting logic to develop the potential of a young player on which the loaning team really counts, but rather towards an economic logic that aims to generate profits from the transfer market or a political logic aiming at exercising undue influence on rival clubs. In order to be effective, these measures should be implemented in parallel to the regulation of the questions of buy-back options (recompra) and the multi-ownership of clubs.
Ball possession: record figures in 35 European leagues
The partnership with the football data company InStat allows the CIES Football Observatory to present exclusive analysis on the technical performance of teams from 35 European competitions. Issue number 269 of the Weekly Post highlights domestic league matches during which a team had the highest percentage of ball possession (calculated out of effective playing time). The record figure for current season was measured for Fulham against Millwall on the 21st August: 78.7%.
The loss with the highest possession was recorded for Tottenham against Newcastle: 74.8% on the 25th August (0-1). Apart from Fulham and Tottenham, Shakhtar Donetsk (in two away matches), Paris St-Germain, Celtic FC, Borussia Dortmund, Ludogorets Razgrad, FK Partizan (also in a game away) and RB Salzburg are in the top ten positions of the rankings.
The Weekly Post presents the top 10 possession figures for each of the 35 championships analysed. In addition, the freshly updated CIES & InStat Performance Atlas presents additional data on six key technical indicators referring to defence, possession and attack. By clicking on teams, the tool allows users accessing exclusive statistics for up to the last 10 domestic league matches played. Please contact us for more information about the wide array of possibilities offered by subscribing to InStat.
Stability: Manchester City and Liverpool focus on continuity
Issue number 268 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the percentage of domestic league minutes played by footballers signed at the start of the season for all of the big-5 league clubs. Last Champions League finalists, Tottenham (5.0%) and Liverpool (8.3%), as well as Manchester City (7.7%), are among the 14 teams where new recruits played less than one tenth of minutes.
The figures for Manchester United and Chelsea are much higher: 25.8% and 33.6% respectively. Among Champions League participants, only LOSC Lille fielded new signings for a greater percentage of minutes than Chelsea: 42.5%. The highest proportion in the big-5 was measured for Fiorentina (69.5%), a club recently taken over by a new wealthy owner.
The most stable teams are to be found in the Premier League, where new recruits played so far only 15.7% of minutes (maximum 50.4% at Aston Villa). At the opposite end of the table is the Italian Serie A: 29.6% (minimum 5.5% for Atalanta). The averages measured in the other three leagues of the big-5 are 22.7% for Bundesliga, 24.0% for the Liga (maximum 54.3% for Sevilla) and 26.7% for Ligue 1.
Champions League: like it short (Ajax) or long (Liverpool)?
Issue number 267 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the exclusive data produced by our partners InStat by ranking Champions League teams according to the average length of the passes achieved in domestic league games so far this season. Past edition semi-finalists Ajax have the lowest figure (15.96 meters), ahead of Paris St-Germain (16.17) and Barcelona (16.56).
At the opposite end of the table are Czech champions Slavia Praha with an average length of 19.82 meters (+24% compared to Ajax). Title holder Liverpool has so far achieved the fourth longest passes among group stage participants: 19.45 meters on average. This figure is significantly higher than for their main Premier League rivals Manchester City (17.39).
The majority of high-profile teams are among those making the shortest passes. Apart from Liverpool, the only recent Champions League finalist with an average length of passes greater than 18 meters is Atlético Madrid. Diego Simeone’s team achieved the third lowest number of passes per game (379), while Lucien Favre’s Borussia Dortmund made the most (735).
Manchester City first billion-euro squad in football history
For the first time in history, a football club invested more than one billion euro in transfer indemnities to assemble its squad: Manchester City. Following last summer transfer window, two clubs are close to this figure: Paris St-Germain (€913 million) and Real Madrid (€902 million). Issue number 266 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the data for all teams in the big-5.
The gap between the costliest and cheapest squad per league is x148 in the Liga (Real Madrid vs Mallorca), x114 in the Ligue 1 (Paris St-Germain vs Nîmes), x85 in the Bundesliga (Bayern vs Paderborn), x63 in the Serie A (Juventus vs Lecce) and x32 in the Premier League (Manchester City vs Norwich). This reflects the great financial divides in European football.
The average transfer expenditure to sign current squad members per league is €345 M in the Premier League, €167 M in both the Liga and the Serie A, €124 M in the Bundesliga and €118 M in the Ligue 1. More exclusive financial analysis on the big-5 league transfer market is available in the 47th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.
Monthly Report reveals growing football transfer market inflation
All things being equal, the price of players during the last transfer window went up by 31% compared to the previous year. Since 2014, the annual inflation growth rate on the transfer market for big-5 league footballers has been 26%. With respect to 2011, the same player costs now almost three times more. More exclusive analysis is available in the 47th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report.
The amounts at stake on the football players’ transfer market have strongly increased over the past decade. At big-5 league level, the investments in transfer indemnities have grown from €1.5 billion in 2010 to a new record of €6.6 billion in 2019 (+340%). During this period, big-5 league clubs have recorded a cumulative deficit of €8.9 billion. English Premier League clubs alone have a total net negative balance of €6.5 billion, with a record deficit for Manchester City (€1.1 billion).
Despite the increase in spending and a strongly inflationary context, the growing recourse by clubs to payments spread out over several years shows that more and more teams are finding themselves at the limit of their financial capabilities. In an increasingly speculative and uneven environment, a growing number of clubs, even within the most powerful leagues, include the profits made on the transfer market into their financial model. This situation is not without danger for their stability, independence and competitiveness.
Read the Report
Most expensive big-5 league players: Salah behind Mbappé
Issue number 265 of the Weekly Post presents the 100 players from the five major European leagues with the highest transfer values according to the freshly updated and further improved CIES Football Observatory algorithm. Three forwards are in the top three positions: Kylian Mbappé (€252M), Mohammed Salah (€219M) and Raheem Sterling (€208M).
Apart from strikers, the most expensive footballers per position are Alisson Becker (€107M) for goalkeepers, Trent Alexander-Arnold (€130M) for defenders and Paul Pogba (€125M) for midfielders. Lionel Messi (€167M) heads the rankings for players over 31 years of age, while Cristiano Ronaldo (€118M) tops the table for footballers aged 33 or more.
The CIES Football Observatory algorithm takes into account a wide array of variables such as age, contract, position, minutes, goals, international status, team results, etc. The estimates refer to the value for the most likely recruiting club. The price range for all of the big-5 league players can be accessed for free here. Deeper analysis is available on a consultancy basis.
Monthly Report shows development of women’s football
This new Monthly Report analyses the composition of teams participating in the five of the most developed women’s professional leagues worldwide: four European leagues (Germany, Sweden, France and England), as well as the National Women’s Soccer League in the United States. It reveals that the age of players increases, international mobility grows and the concentration of the best footballers within a limited number of clubs independently of their origin pursues its course.
The average age of players on the pitch has risen from 25.1 years of age in 2017 to 25.5 in 2019. The German Bundesliga is the only championship in which the average age on the pitch has fallen over the last three years. It is now the league fielding the youngest players among those covered by the study: 24.7 years of age (-0.8 since 2017). At the opposite end is the United States National Women’s Soccer League: 27.5 years of age (+1.3 years since 2017).
The percentage of minutes played by expatriates has increased for the third year running reaching a figure of 32.4% (+4.4% in comparison to 2017). The most notable increase was recorded in England (+7.5%), where more and more clubs invest in women’s football through reproducing the same mechanisms already observed in the men’s game. The total number of expatriates in the leagues covered increases year by year: from 300 in 2017, the figure reached 348 in 2018 and 379 in 2019.
Numerous teams play with a majority of footballers with international status. The percentage of minutes played by the latter reaches 99.0% at Bayern Munich and 98.8% at Arsenal. It is greater than 90% in three other teams: Wolfsburg, Manchester City, as well as at the multiple European champions Olympique Lyonnais (94.2%).
Though encouraging, the evolution noted shows the importance of reflecting on regulatory mechanisms to limit the negative effects due to market logics already observed in the men’s game such as, among others, the speculation on young players, the concentration of resources and competitive imbalance.
More and more points won by champions
What is the percentage of points won by champions in the five major European leagues? Issue number 264 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post answers this question for the last twenty seasons. The analysis reveals a progressive increase in the percentage of points achieved by champions.
On average, big-5 league champions obtained 69.9% of points for the five-season period between 1999/2000 and 2003/2004. This percentage went up to 73.9% during the following lustrum, to 77.7% between 2010 and 2014, and again up to 80.5% for the last five seasons. This reflects an ongoing trend towards competitive imbalance.
The record figure overall was registered for Juventus in 2013/14: 89.5% of points. At the other extreme is Olympique Lyonnais in 2002/03: 59.6%. All 2018/19 big-5 league champions achieved at least three quarters of points: from 86.0% for Manchester City (second highest score in the English Premier League history) to 76.3% for Barcelona.
Length of passes: the best like it short
Issue number 263 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the average length of passes by teams from 35 European domestic leagues. The study highlights big discrepancies in playing styles. There are almost 8 meters difference between the teams that executed the longest and shortest passes: Rotherham United (23.42m) and Paris St-Germain (15.85m).
Many very competitive teams are in the top 25 of the rankings for the shortest passes, including Champions League semi-finalists FC Barcelona (2nd) and AFC Ajax (5th), as well as Europa League finalist Chelsea FC (4th). The vast majority of teams executing the longest passes are in the bottom-half of the table in their respective leagues. Getafe CF is the exception that confirms the rule.
The analysis per league also reveals the persistence of cultural differences in the approach of the game. Teams from the Scottish Premier League (21.08m) and the English Championship (20.58m) execute on average the longest passes. At the opposite end of the table, we find the French Ligue 1 and the Finnish Veikkausliiga (18.89m in both cases). Data comes from InStat.
Report and Atlas on expatriate footballers disclosed
For the third year, the CIES Football Observatory analyses the presence of expatriate players in 147 leagues from 98 national associations. Brazil is clearly at the top of the rankings for countries exporting the most footballers (1,330 players), ahead of France (867) and Argentina (820). Alone, these countries export almost a quarter of footballers (22.5%). Overall, the number of expatriates increased by 5.0% compared to 2018.
During last year, the number of expatriates has increased for each of the three principle exporting countries: Brazil (+64 players, +4.8%), France (+37 players, +4.3%) and Argentina (+57 players, +7.0%). The number of Spaniards abroad has also strongly increased (+61 players, +14.3%). This is the second biggest increase in absolute terms after that of the Brazilians.
The most frequented migratory route originates from Brazil and ends in Portugal (261 players). The migration of Argentinians to Chili (116 players) is the second principle axis. Two migratory channels departing from England also involve many footballers: the first ends up in Scotland (113 players), while the second leads to Wales (92 players).
England and Italy are the chief importing countries of footballers. The professional clubs of these countries employ 728 and 636 expatriate players respectively. Without taking into account the 139 citizens of the other UK nations present in England, it is thus in Italy that the greatest number of players imported from abroad are to be found.
The CIES Football Observatory research team is also proud to disclose the brand new Atlas of Migration mapping the international flows of footballers.
Production champions: Napoli, Olympiacos, Leeds, and who else?
Issue number 262 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the three best and worst teams per league in terms of points that they should have achieved according to their pitch production. Virtual points were projected according to a statistical model including shots taken and conceded (both on target and from the box), as well as the percentage of ball possession.
With respect to the indicators selected, Napoli and Atalanta should have achieved more points than the Italian Serie A champions Juventus. However, Massimiliano Allegri’s players were much more efficient. In the Greek top division, both Olympiacos and AEK Athens had a greater pitch production than champions PAOK. Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United tops the production rankings in the English Championship.
According to pitch production, Lucien Favre’s Borussia Dortmund should only have ranked fourth in the German Bundesliga behind Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen. The Ruhr team was thus particularly efficient. In Turkey, ?stanbul Ba?ak?ehir virtually outranks Be?ikta? and Galatasaray. More data is available in the CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas powered by InStat data.
Top transfer values for U20 big-5 league players
Issue number 261 of the Weekly Post presents the top 50 list of the U20 players from the big-5 with the highest transfer value according to the CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The English full international Jadon Sancho heads the table with an estimated value of €150M. Borussia Dortmund’s winger outranks Arsenal’s Mattéo Guendouzi (€70M) and AS Roma’s Nicolò Zaniolo (€67M).
Four other big-5 league players born on or after January 1st 1999 have an estimated value greater than €50M: Kai Havertz (Bayer Leverkusen), Declan Rice (West Ham), Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan AC) and Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid). Footballers from 18 national associations feature in the top 50 list. The most represented country is France (13 players), followed by England (9).
The updated transfer valuations for all players from the five major European competitions are available here. In order to keep some more exclusive information, we have henceforth decided to display only price ranges. The latter still refer to the most probable fee for the most likely buyer. Additional services can be provided on a mandate basis.
RB Leipzig signed its footballers at the youngest age
The 260th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the age at which players fielded during this season in 24 European top divisions were signed by their clubs of employment. Academy graduates are not included in the sample. RB Leipzig recruited its footballers at the youngest age (21.43 years on average), while MKE Ankaragücü signed them at the oldest one (29.28 years).
The second and third lowest values for age at recruitment at big-5 league level were registered for two other teams with a transfer strategy clearly focused on the signing of young talents: Real Madrid (21.95 years on average) and Olympique Lyonnais (22.64 years). Many other very competitive teams are in the top 20 positions of the rankings. At the opposite end of the table is Parma (27.35 years).
CSKA Moskva is the club from the 19 further European top divisions surveyed that signed its squad members at the youngest age: 21.9 years on average. The Russian side outranks the club having fielded so far the youngest footballers in domestic league games during current season: FC Nordsjælland (see Demographic Atlas). At third position is RB Salzburg, ahead of five Dutch and two Belgian teams.
Defensive air challenges: Marcelo ahead of Maguire and van Dijk
Marcelo Guedes (Olympique Lyonnais) heads the big-5 league rankings of players having won the highest percentage of defensive air challenges in domestic league matches this season: 136 out of 159 (85.5%). The Brazilian outranks three English Premier League players: Harry Maguire, Virgil van Dijk and Shane Duffy. The top 50s for the big-5 and 26 other European competitions are available in issue number 259 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
The top ranked players for the remaining big-5 European leagues are Dimitrios Siovas (CD Leganés), 37-year-old Bruno Alves (Parma) and Mats Hummels (Bayern). Three other world champions are in the top 50 table: the Spaniards Gerard Piqué and Sergio Ramos, as well as the French Raphaël Varane. Only footballers with at least 80 challenges according to the statistics provided by our partners InStat were included in the analysis.
Heart of Midlothian’s centre back Christophe Berra heads the table for players in the other 26 competitions surveyed. The Scottish won 233 of his 268 defensive aerial challenges: 86.9%. He outranks three other central defenders: Felipe Augusto (FC Porto), Jake Cooper (Millwall) and the captain of the French Ligue 2 club of Clermont Foot Julien Laporte. The top ranked full back is the Dutch full international Denzel Dumfries (PSV Eindhoven).
New Report on attendances in football stadia
The 44th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses match attendances in 51 national football leagues from 42 countries. Germany appears as the footballing country par excellence. Although also very popular, English and Spanish clubs have considerably less spectators than German teams. Outside of Europe, Mexican clubs attract the biggest crowds.
The study of the changes since 2003 reveals the growing enthusiasm for football in the United States and Canada. Despite the increase in the number of teams participating in the MLS, average attendances have consistently increased to break the 20,000-spectator threshold over the past five years. This limit has also been broken in China, where football’s popularity is henceforth also well established.
With over 80,000 spectators per match, Borussia Dortmund is top of the rankings for attendance by club. The Ruhr team is ahead of four football giants: Manchester United, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. Five German clubs are in the top ten rankings (the two already cited, Schalke 04, Hamburg and Stuttgart). Atlanta United is the most popular non-European club (10th in total).
Foreign goals: from Cyprus to Ukraine
Issue number 258 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks 27 top division leagues of UEFA member countries according to the percentage of goals scored during the current season by expatriate footballers. At the top of the table is Cyprus (86.7% of foreign goals), ahead of Turkey (80.7%) and England (68.8%).
In nine other leagues, foreign goals accounted for more than half of total goals. At the opposite end of the table, expatriate players scored less than one third of goals in four countries only: Ukraine (25.5%), Serbia (27.6%), Israel (27.9%) and the Czech Republic (30.4%). The lowest percentage at big-5 league level was measured in the French Ligue 1 (35.6%).
Big discrepancies also exist at club level. The figures vary from 0% (Paksi FC, EA Guingamp, Athletic Club Bilbao, etc.) to 100% (AEK Larnaca, Rizespor, FK Senica). In the English Premier League, they go from 97.4% at Wolverhampton to 20.5% at Leicester City. More data on the composition of squads is available in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas.
Highest transfer values per club in the big-5
Issue number 257 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the players with the highest estimated transfer value per big-5 league club. The potentially most expensive player overall, Kylian Mbappé (€228 million), represents 25.9% of the total squad value of Paris St-Germain. A similar percentage was measured for Jadon Sancho (€148 million, 24.9%) at Borussia Dortmund.
Despite his age, Lionel Messi remains the most valuable FC Barcelona’s player: €171 million. The Argentinean is the oldest footballer among those with the highest transfer value out of all big-5 league clubs. At Juventus, 34-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo (€125 million) is only outranked by Paulo Dybala (€142 million).
Eden Hazard (€121 million) is the most expensive Chelsea FC’s squad member. The Belgian also has the highest transfer value among footballers with only one year of contract remaining, ahead of Timo Werner (€70 million). The German striker is the most valuable RB Leipzig’s player. If they do not extend their contract, both footballers will probably be transferred during the next transfer window.
Best performing big-5 league players: last 1,000 minutes
The CIES Football Observatory has developed an exclusive approach to measure the technical performance of players on an objective basis using data provided by OptaPro. Issue number 256 of the Weekly Post presents the best performing big-5 league footballers for last 1,000 minutes played. The rankings only include players fielded for at least 630 minutes since January 1st 2019.
Four Atalanta players are in the best XI for Serie A: Timothy Castagne, Josip Ili?i?, Papu Gómez and Duván Zapata. The only Juventus player fielded for at least 630 domestic league minutes in 2019 is also present in the best formation: Daniele Rugani. Five Barcelona footballers figure in the Liga’s best XI, including Lionel Messi.
The most represented teams in the remaining leagues are Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga (four players), Manchester City in the Premier League (five players) and Paris St-Germain in the Ligue 1 (six players). The youngest footballers per league are Gianluigi Donnarumma, Sergio Reguilón, Jadon Sancho, Marcus Rashford and Kylian Mbappé.
Foul analysis at big-5 league level: from Barcelona to Brighton & Hove
Issue number 255 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks big-5 league teams according to the ratio between fouls suffered and committed during the current season using data from OptaPro. FC Barcelona players suffered the most fouls with respect to those committed (1.5 times). At the opposite end is Brighton & Hove with a ratio of 0.68.
The highest number of fouls committed per match was measured for Getafe (17.1). In the other leagues, the top values were recorded for Torino (16.8), Dijon (15.8), Augsburg (14.2) and Brighton & Hove (12.8). Conversely, Borussia Dortmund players have on average committed the least fouls per game (8.4). In the other championships of the big-5, the lowest figures were observed for Manchester City (8.5), Barcelona (10.5), Napoli (10.7) and Nice (11.2).
The average number of fouls per fixture varies between 20.9 in the Premier League and 27.0 in the Liga. This strong gap partially reflects the existence of different styles of refereeing. In the remaining leagues, these values are 24.0 in Bundesliga, 26.4 in Ligue 1 and 26.6 in Serie A. Among players fielded for at least 1,000 domestic league minutes, Moussa Doumbia (Reims), Amine Harit (Schalke 04) and Borja García (Girona) are those fouled most often.
Players’ origin in the English Premier League under the light of Brexit
The 43rd Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the evolution of the origin of players fielded over the past ten years in the English Premier League. It shows that the playing time of footballers having grown up in England has progressively fallen to reach a new negative record level over the current season: 35.2%. A similar trend was observed for goals scored: 30.7%.
On the contrary, the proportion of continental Europeans has steadily increased throughout the decade analysed. New records have been measured during the current season both at the level of the percentage of minutes (45.0%) and at the level of goals scored (43.3%). Since the 2017/18 season, continental European nationals are more numerous on Premier League pitches than UK players.
Within the context of Brexit, a possible limit on the scope of international recruitment may oblige the majority of Premier League teams to modify their transfer strategies. However, the rise of a new generation of very promising Englishmen suggests that, on strictly sporting terms, such a change may not negatively affect the competitiveness of Premier League teams. It could even strengthen the English national team.
Shot accuracy: Manchester United and Ajax at the top
Issue number 254 of the CIES Football Weekly Post investigates InStat data to present the 20 clubs with the highest and lowest percentages of shots on target both in the five major European leagues and in 25 other domestic championships. The figures vary from 48.6% (Manchester United) and 28.9% (Cagliari) in the big-5, as well as from 50.4% (Ajax) and 31.7% (four different clubs) in the other competitions surveyed.
The study also presents the average distance of all shots attempted. The lowest values for clubs ranked in the top 20 tables were recorded for Bayern Munich (15.8 meters) in the five major European leagues and for the Dutch side PSV Eindhoven (also 15.8 meters) at the level of the remaining 25 leagues surveyed. Generally speaking, the higher the percentage of shots on target, the lower the distance from which they are taken.
The average percentage of shots on target for all clubs in the leagues studied is 37.6% (from 41.2% in the Dutch Eredivisie to 35.0% in the Russian Premier League), while the general shot distance is 18.5 meters (from 17.4 meters in the English Premier League to 19.5 meters in the Serbian Super Liga). More pitch statistics at club level are available in the freshly updated CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas.
Squad transfer values: English clubs at the top
Weekly Post number 253 presents the aggregated transfer value of big-5 league clubs. According to the algorithm exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory, the estimated value of the squad of five teams is over one billion euro. Four of them are from the Premier League, which reflects the financial power of the English top division. Barcelona is the best-ranked non-English team.
The total transfer value of Manchester City players is almost €1.5 billion. This figure is one time and a half higher than the transfer fees spent to assemble the squad. However, this capital gain is only hypothetical insofar a team like Manchester City wants to win trophies rather than releasing its best footballers. In addition, within the current inflationary context, possible replacements are far more expensive than their predecessors.
The squad transfer value of four teams in the top 40 positions of the table is more than three times greater than the sums spent in transfer indemnities to recruit current players: Olympique Lyonnais (15th, x3.3), Real Sociedad (31st, x3.4), LOSC Lille (37th, x3.2) and Real Betis (38th, x3.1). Well-established in the top division league of their country of belonging, these clubs have an equally well-established business model relying on the promotion of talents. The estimates for all big-5 league players are available on the CIES Football Observatory website.
Best dribblers in the big-5: Messi ahead of St-Maximin
Issue number 252 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post relies on OptaPro data to rank big-5 league footballers according to the number of domestic league minutes played per successful dribble over the last 365 days. Lionel Messi heads the rankings with a dribble achieved every 19.2 minutes, ahead of Allan Saint-Maximin (19.8) and Eden Hazard (21.0). The analysis only includes footballers who played at least 1,800 minutes (1,500 for current Bundesliga players).
Five players who grew up in France are in the top 8 positions: Allan Saint-Maximin, Naïm Sliti, Ousmane Dembélé, Marcus Thuram and Jeff Reine-Adelaide. The young English prodigy Jadon Sancho is the best-ranked player of those currently playing in the Bundesliga ahead of Ihlas Bebou and teammate Achraf Hakimi. Paulo Dybala heads the rankings for Serie A footballers ahead of Rodrigo de Paul and Federico Chiesa.
The Belgium and Chelsea striker Eden Hazard has the best success rate among players who attempted at least 100 dribbles during the period considered (73%). Three other players had a success rate of more than 70%: Naïm Sliti, Marcus Thuram and Éver Banega. At the opposite end of the table are Roberto Pereyra (43%), Fabián Orellana (44%) and Joshua King (also 44%). This unique tool exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory allows you to compare the technical profile of big-5 league footballers.
Most experienced young players: the CIES Football Observatory rankings
Issue number 251 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights the 20 most experienced young players from 22 European competitions per year of birth. The rankings were elaborated using an exclusive methodology weighting domestic league minutes played by footballers during the last two years according to the sporting strength of employer teams.
St-Étienne’s centre back William Saliba tops the table for players born in or after 2001. He outranks another French centre back, Benoît Badiashile (Monaco), and the Spaniard Bryan Gil (Sevilla). Two English players head the rankings for players born in 2000: Ryan Sessegnon (Fulham) and Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund). Heerenveen’s talent Kik Pierie ranks third ahead of Real Madrid’s rising star Vinícius.
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) is clearly at the top of the 1999-born players. He outranks the Dutch prodigy Matthijs de Ligt (Ajax) and another goalkeeper: Alban Lafont (Fiorentina). World champions Kylian Mbappé (Paris St-Germain) heads the table for players born in 1998, ahead of compatriot Houssem Aouar (Olympique Lyonnais) and Liverpool’s full back Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Exclusive training club analysis
The CIES Football Observatory celebrates the 250th edition of its Weekly Post with an exclusive analysis on the contribution of clubs in training the players fielded in big-5 league matches during the last five years. Training clubs are those where players have been for at least three seasons between the ages of 15 and 21. The rankings are elaborated by summing minutes played in the big-5 since January 1st 2014 by all of the footballers trained per club.
Barcelona tops the table with 69 footballers trained fielded in the big-5 by 55 different teams for a total of 319,224 minutes. Behind the Catalans are their great rivals Real Madrid: 69 footballers trained, 44 different clubs, 304,052 minutes. In the top ten positions are six Spanish, three French and one English team (Manchester United). According to the definition used, Cristiano Ronaldo and Paul Pogba are Manchester United club-trained players.
The best-ranked clubs for the remaining big-5 leagues are Olympique Lyonnais, VfB Stuttgart and AS Roma. The greatest contributors outside of the countries hosting the five major European competitions are River Plate, Sporting Clube, Boca Juniors, Ajax and Feyenoord. In total, 1,370 teams have trained players fielded in the big-5 during the last five years. More information is available on request at football.observatory@cies.ch.
Evolution of competitive balance in the Champions League (2003-2018)
The 42th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the evolution of the competitive balance in the group stages of the UEFA Champions League since the introduction of the current format in 2003/04. The study illustrates a clear trend towards less balance and more predictability. Changes in the competition format and the redistribution of resources are needed to preserve a sufficient level of sporting and economic balance.
The analysis of the distribution of points at the end of the group stages shows that teams at the top of the table have progressively obtained more points and significantly improved their goal difference. The opposite trend was observed for teams at the bottom of the group. The average goal difference in group stage matches also increased. This is notably linked to the growth of fixtures which concluded with at least a three goal difference: from 16.9% during the first four seasons analysed to a new record of 22.9% between 2015 and 2018.
The study also reveals the greater predictability of matches. The percentage of fixtures where teams that are clear favourites according to odds on the betting market go on to win went clearly up: 81.4% of wins at home between 2014 and 2018 (+5.3% in comparison to 2004-2008) and 74.6% away (+12.1%). A good compromise to preserve the interest of the Champions League over the long term would consist of reducing the number of participants in the group stage, while keeping an open system of competition and guaranteeing a greater percentage of revenue to those excluded.
Solidarity could operate through a meritocratic basis by keeping aside part of the revenues for all of the teams having participated in the training of players fielded. Such a redistributive mechanism would have the great merit of recognising the fundamental role played by a multitude of clubs in developing the players who guarantee the high quality spectacle that the major teams produce and from which they derive benefit. Go to the study here.
Stakhanovite big-5 league players
Who are the footballers having played the most minutes in the big-5 leagues during the last five years? This is the question answered in issue number 249 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post. Samir Handanovi? (Inter) tops the table for goalkeepers, while César Azpilicueta (Chelsea) heads the rankings for outfield players.
Only ten goalkeepers in the top 25 list have been in the same club during the last five years. This is the same proportion as that observed among outfield footballers. Conversely, Joe Hart played for four different big-5 league teams over this period: Manchester City, Torino, West Ham and Burnley. Only five forwards are in the top 25 list: Lionel Messi, José Callejón, Romelu Lukaku, Luis Suárez and Antoine Griezmann.
The most fielded players at German Bundesliga level, where there are fewer matches as only 18 teams are competing, are Daniel Baier (13,477 minutes for Augsburg) and Oliver Baumann (15,210 minutes for Freiburg and Hoffenheim).
Shots per goal: Paris St-Germain most efficient team in Europe
No team in the 35 European competitions surveyed needed as few shots to score as Paris St-Germain. The French side scored so far every 4.7 shots. According to the exclusive InStat data, this ratio was inferior to five for another big-5 league club only: Borussia Dortmund. The top three per league is available in issue number 248 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post.
The most efficient teams in the three remaining leagues of the big-5 are Barcelona (5.4 shots per goal), Arsenal (5.8) and Sampdoria (5.9). The highest figure among teams from the five major European leagues was recorded for Huddersfield Town: 17.3 shots per goal. The Premier League club must absolutely improve this statistics to avoid relegation.
The most efficient team outside of the big-5 are the Swiss of BSC Young Boys (4.8), ahead of FC Midtjylland and PSV Eindhoven. On the contrary, Apollon Smyrnis (25.1), Hapoel Tel Aviv (21.1) and Arsenal Kyiv (20.7) were so far particularly inefficient. More data is available in the CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas, as well as on demand.
Best transfers from an economic perspective: Liverpool and Juventus stand out
Issue number 247 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents big-5 league players whose current estimated value exceeds the most the fee paid by recruiting teams during last summer. Rodri Hernández (+€45 million) tops the table for fee-paying transfers ahead of Lucas Torreira (+€44m), while Emre Can (+€45m) heads the rankings for free agents ahead of Stefan de Vrij (+€39m).
Juventus and Liverpool are the only teams with three recruits in the top 20 tables: Emre Can, Cristiano Ronaldo and João Cancelo for the former club, as well as Xherdan Shaqiri, Alisson Becker and Fabinho Tavares for the latter one. The excellent performances of both these players and their employer teams explain in large part the magnitude of the gap observed.
Seven other clubs have more than one representative in the top 20 lists: Inter Milan (de Vrij and Asamoah), Napoli (Younes and Ruiz), Real Betis (López and Canales), LOSC Lille (Bamba and Ikoné), Everton (Bernard and Richarlison), West Ham (Wilshere and Anderson) and Arsenal (Torreira and Guendouzi). Current values were estimated using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm.
New Monthly Report analyses the link between possession and success
The 41st CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report analyses the link between ball possession and results in 35 European leagues. While this link is undeniable, it is only from a certain level that ball control allows teams to improve significantly their results. This is probably the source of the erroneous but widespread idea that possession is not a key factor for success.
The 70 champions of the last two seasons in the 35 leagues analysed had an average possession of 57% during their winning season. Only 10% of champions won their league with a ball possession of less than 50%: Spartak Trnava, RC Strasbourg, Stade de Reims, AIK Solna, FC Midtjylland, Spal 2013 and CFR Cluj. None of the 70 champions completed fewer passes in the attacking third of the pitch than their opponents during the title winning season.
The analysis at match level for all the possession indicators taken into account shows that a team can sometimes accept an opponent’s domination, especially when they are winning. However, this is not a successful strategy in the longer term as it implies too many risks of conceding the first goal without being then able to put sufficient pressure on opponents. The data used were generated by the specialist sports company InStat. More information is available on demand.
Manchester City favourites for Premier League title
Issue number 246 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the pitch production of big-5 league clubs during the first part of the current season to highlight if they have over- or under-performed in terms of points achieved. The findings suggest that Manchester City will finally beat Liverpool in the English Premier League title race.
Manchester City achieved so far 5% of points per match less than expected according to its pitch production. Conversely, Liverpool obtained 15% more and its results are supposed to decline in the second part of the season. The over- or under-performance were calculated according to a regression model built on the 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons including shots on target, ball possession and shots conceded from the box. The data comes from the specialist company InStat.
In the other big-5 leagues, the pitch production of three out of four teams at the top of the table should allow them to lift the trophy: Barcelona in Spain, Juventus in Italy and Paris St-Germain in France. However, in Germany, the analysis suggests that Bayern Munich will finally outrank the current leader Borussia Dortmund. The data for 27 further European competitions are available on demand. More data is also accessible in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas.
Brand new list of top transfer values for big-5 league players
The first Weekly Post of the year presents the 100 big-5 league players with the highest transfer value according to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The 20-year-old French prodigy Kylian Mbappé (€218.5 million) tops the list ahead of Harry Kane (€200.3m) and Neymar (€197.1m).
Among the 27 footballers with an estimated value of more than €100m, sixteen play in the Premier League, five in the Liga, three in the Serie A, two in the Ligue 1 and one in the Bundesliga. Eleven nations have representatives with an estimated value of more than €100m: Brazil (6 players), England (5), France (5), Argentina (2), Portugal (2), Belgium (2), Egypt (1), Germany (1), Senegal (1), Uruguay (1) and Italy (1).
The transfer values for all big-5 league players are available online. A research note explaining the methodology used by the CIES Football Observatory and the criteria included in the algorithm is accessible here. Please contact us for more information and consultancies.
Lucky carrier players in the big-5 European leagues
The last CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post of the year 2018 highlights players whose teams have achieved the most or least points per match when they were in the starting 11 than when this was not the case. The most positive gap in absolute was recorded for Christophe Jallet (OGC Nice): 7 wins out of the 7 matches that he started compared to only 0.44 points per match for the remaining games.
In the other big-5 leagues, the most positive gaps for players who have been present or absent at least five times in the starting 11 were recorded for Diogo Jota (Wolverhampton), Rubén Rochina (Levante), Andreas Beck (Stuttgart) and Goran Pandev (Genoa). Pedro Rodríguez and Ross Barkley were so far also lucky carriers for Chelsea: 100% of points for matches started in both cases.
Conversely, the most negative gaps per championship were registered for Massimo Gobbi (Parma), Gerard Gumbau (Leganés), Denis Zakaria (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Anthony Knockaert (Brighton & Hove) and Olivier Boscagli (OGC Nice). However, it is useful to remind that these results are in part a random fact.
CIES launches Sports Intelligence group with first report on football governance
The CIES Football Observatory is pleased to announce the launch of a parallel research group within the Centre International d’Étude du Sport (CIES). Led by Fernando Roitman, this new team focuses on aspects of sports governance, finance, legal and development.
The freshly published ‘Governance Structures at National Association Level’ report focuses on a selection of 20 countries from all six confederations and provides insight into one of the crucial aspects of world football. The study analyses five main areas: General Assembly (GA), Executive Committee (ExCo), President, judicial bodies and reporting activities. As findings are standardised in their form, the document allows benchmarking between individual case studies and the identification of potential trends across different regions of the world.
If you would like to be informed about CIES Sports Intelligence activities and next reports please subscribe to the dedicated newsletter. Furthermore, you can follow CIES Sports Intelligence on LinkedIn and Twitter to keep up to date with daily analyses on relevant sporting topics.
Top transfer value increases during last trimester
Issue number 243 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 20 tables for big-5 league players whose transfer values have increased the most during the last three months both in absolute and relative terms. At the head of the two rankings is the fresh English full international and Borussia Dortmund player Jadon Sancho: +€78 million and +806%.
Apart from Sancho, four players have seen their transfer value increase by more than €30M: João Cancelo (Juventus), Andrew Robertson (Liverpool), Richarlison (Everton) and Thilo Kehrer (Paris St-Germain). Many hot prospects are in the top 20 list of players whose value has risen the most in relative terms. The highest figures per league were recorded for Jadon Sancho in Germany, Moise Kean in Italy, Stanley N’Soki in France, Isaac Success in England and Júnior Firpo in Spain.
This analysis was performed using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. A detailed explanation of the approach developed is available in this research note. The transfer value of all big-5 league players is freely accessible on the CIES Football Observatory website. The figures published refer to the estimated price for the most likely recruiting club. Moreover, a calculator was developed to allow users assessing the transfer value of players worldwide. However, this tool only provides rough estimates. Deeper analysis is available on demand.
New Report shows decline of competitive balance in European football
The 40th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the evolution of competitive balance in 24 European leagues over the last 10 seasons. The study reveals a clear trend towards a greater imbalance. The level of imbalance is particularly marked and on the increase in the big-5 leagues and the Champions League, where the economic divides between teams are very strong.
In 2017/18, big-5 league champions achieved a record of 83.3% of points. This proportion is 10% greater than that measured in 2008/09. Over the ten seasons studied, the biggest average goal difference per match was measured for the UEFA Champions League: 1.58 goals. The premier competition of European football is also that presenting the highest proportion of matches with a goal gap of at least three: 21.0%.
According to the Report, “the concentration of resources goes hand in hand with the concentration of talents. Many teams and leagues are confined to a stepping-stone role for up and coming players. This permits the generation of profits on the transfer market. However, the financial compensations from these transactions are not sufficient to halt the increasing competitive imbalance. The present situation favours the wealthiest clubs. Each day, they increase their sporting, economic and political domination”.
Effective playing time in 37 European competitions
Issue number 242 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post relies on InStat data to present the average effective time of games in 37 European competitions. The Swedish Allsvenskan is the league with the most fluid matches (60.4% of effective time), just ahead the UEFA Champions League (60.2%). The Portuguese Primeira Liga finds itself in the opposite position (50.9%).
The highest effective playing time among the five major European leagues was recorded for the German Bundesliga (58.5%), while the lowest was measured for the Spanish Liga (55.8%). As for the Champions League, Europa League games are more fluid than the average observed at the level of the 35 competitions surveyed: 57.1% of effective time compared to 55.3%.
The highest percentage of minutes in which the ball was in play for clubs in national competitions was recorded for matches of the Swedish side GIF Sundsvall (63.7%). This is 18% more than for games of the Portuguese team Feirense. Club Brugge tops the Champions League table (66.2%), while Borussia Mönchengladbach (62.5%), Liverpool (62.2%), Milan AC (61.2%), Barcelona (60.3%) and Paris St-Germain (60.1%) present the greatest figures for the big-5 leagues.
See also the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas
Most represented origins in the big-5 leagues
Issue number 241 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks countries according to the number of domestic league minutes played by their representatives in the big-5. The French (=players who grew up in France) top the rankings (19.7% of total minutes) ahead of the Spaniards (15.2%) and the Germans (9.8%). Overall, players originating from 85 countries have taken part in big-5 league matches so far this season.
In each league surveyed, the highest percentage of minutes per origin was measured for nationals. Nevertheless, the gaps are quite marked: from 62.7% in the French League 1 to only 35.3% in the English Premier League. The figures in the remaining championships are 39.0% in the Italian Serie A, 48.5% in the German Bundesliga and 61.0% in the Spanish Liga.
The greatest values for players originating from abroad were recorded for the French in England (10.9%) and Germany (8.0%), the Brazilians in Italy (7.0%) and France (6.8%), as well as for the Argentineans in Spain (also 6.8%). The English Premier League hosts the representatives from the most countries (54). This figure is 50 in the Serie A, 46 in the Ligue 1, 45 in the Bundesliga and only 40 in the Liga.
CIES Football Observatory innovates with Performance Atlas
A brand new Performance Atlas was launched today on the CIES Football Observatory’s website. Powered with data from the leading company InStat, this unique tool presents exclusive pitch statistics at team level for 35 national competitions across Europe: 30 top division and 5 second division ones. The indicators cover all of the three key areas of the game: defence, passing and attack.
At defensive level, Dinamo Zagreb conceded the least shots on target per domestic league game so far this season (1.6). No club surveyed conceded as few passes in the own third of the pitch as Shakhtar Donetsk (40.8). From an attacking standpoint, the highest figures for shots on target and passes in the opponent third per match were recorded for AFC Ajax (9.1) and Manchester City (206).
At passing level, Chelsea FC tops the table for the percentage of accurate passes (89.9%), while Shakhtar Donetsk ranks first with regard to ball possession (67.0%). The tool also presents the data for the least performing teams. To know more about both the CIES Football Observatory and InStat, please contact us.
Most fielded U21 players: hot prospects
Issue number 240 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the ten most fielded U21 players in the big-5 leagues and Portuguese top division. Until last Friday, eleven U21 footballers had played the totality of domestic league minutes. Among them notably are hot prospects such as Rúben Neves, Jules Koundé, Arne Maier, Nikola Milenkovi? and Rúben Dias.
Up to six goalkeepers are to be found in the top 10 rankings: Emil Audero (Sampdoria), Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan), Paul Bernardoni (Nîmes Olympique), Florian Müller (Mainz), Alban Lafont (Fiorentina) and Unai Simón (Athletic Club). With four representatives, FSV Mainz is the most represented club overall: Aarón Martín, Jean-Philippe Mateta, Florian Müller and Ridle Baku.
Overall, footballers born on or after 1st of January 1997 have played 15.4% of total domestic league minutes in the French Ligue 1, 14.7% in the German Bundesliga, 9.8% in the Italian Serie A, 6.1% in the Spanish Liga, 5.3% in the English Premier League and a mere 5.0% in the Portuguese Primeira Liga. The average age on the pitch per league and club is available in the CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas.
New report unveils drastic changes in European football over the past 10 years
The long-term work carried out within the CIES Football Observatory focuses, in particular, on the demographic analysis of the football players’ labour market. The surveys carried out over the past decade allow us to reveal very clear trends. As illustrated in Monthly Report number 39, the footballers’ labour market in Europe is becoming deterritorialised by a decreasing presence of club-trained players, a stronger presence of expatriate footballers and greater mobility.
The percentage of club-trained players in the 31 European divisions surveyed reached a new record low on the 1st of October 2018: 16.9% (-6.3% in ten years). The decrease observed during the last year has been the greatest ever recorded (-1.6%). In parallel, the proportion of expatriates has increased to a record level of 41.5% (+6.8% in ten years). The process of internationalisation of squads has accelerated: from an annual growth of 0.55% between 2009 and 2013 to an average increase of 1.17% between 2014 and 2018.
In the conclusion, the authors state that “more and more teams are geared towards the short-term. In an increasingly segmented and speculative context, club officials tend to optimise financial returns on the transfer market to the detriment of more eminently sporting considerations. The increasing instability that results limits the sporting competitiveness of an ever greater number of teams, to the advantage of the wealthiest and better structured clubs, who increasingly dominate the proceedings”.
Updated transfer valuations: Mbappé takes the lead
Every month, the CIES Football Observatory updates the transfer valuations of big-5 league players using its exclusive algorithm. Issue number 239 of the Weekly Post presents the top 10 list for each position. The highest figure overall was recorded for Kylian Mbappé (€216.5m). Ederson, Umtiti, Alexander-Arnold and Alli top their position’s rankings.
The transfer value of Kylian Mbappé increased by €23m compared to October. This allowed the French prodigy to outrank Harry Kane (€197.3m). The Englishman is now second ahead of Neymar, Mohammed Salah and Philippe Coutinho. Ageing Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are now valued at €170.6m and €123.6m respectively.
This research note explains the CIES Football Observatory approach to predict from a scientific perspective the transfer value of professional players. Football stakeholders have increasingly recourse to our unique expertise for different purposes from decision-making to litigation. Do not hesitate to contact us for more information.
Exclusive training clubs European rankings
Issue number 238 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post highlights clubs having trained the most players currently present in 31 European top divisions and the big-5 leagues respectively. The highest figures were recorded for AFC Ajax for players in the 31 top divisions (77) and Real Madrid for footballers in the big-5 (36).
Compared to 2017, Dynamo Kiev went up from 7th to 2nd place at European level (+ 15 players), reaching Partizan Belgrade (+10). The number of players trained by AFC Ajax also increased (+ 7). At big-5 league level, the top three remained the same. However, Olympique Lyonnais went up from 3rd to 2nd position (35 players, + 4), approaching Real Madrid (36, -4) and outranking Barcelona (34, =).
Following UEFA definition, training clubs are teams where footballers played for at least three seasons between 15 and 21 years. The percentage of minutes played by club-trained footballers in all of the teams from the 31 competitions studied is available in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Demographic Atlas. More exclusive data is published through Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
Neymar most valuable player (MVP) in the big-5
The CIES Football Observatory has developed an exclusive approach to assess the performance of players using the statistics produced by the leading data company OptaPro. Issue number 237 of the Weekly Post presents big-5 league footballers with the highest scores for the last 1,000 domestic league minutes played.
Aymeric Laporte heads the table in the area of rigour (duels), while Étienne Capoue ranks first for recovery (interceptions). Jorginho has the highest score in distribution and Cristiano Ronaldo in shooting. Neymar is at the top in two different tables: take on (dribbles) and chance creation (assists). According to the CIES Football Observatory approach, the Brazilian star is also the big-5 league MVP for the period considered.
At the head of the tables for footballers who played for less than 450 domestic league minutes during current season are Nicolás Otamendi (rigour), Milan Badelj (recovery), Marco Verratti (distribution), Douglas Costa (take on), Kevin de Bruyne (chance creation and MVP), as well as Konstantinos Mitroglou (shooting). More data is available in the exclusive player profile comparator.